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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,694 papers · 148 categories

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129257386514 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for prediction head

New method removes contrastive loss by adding a prediction head, revealing learning mechanisms.

problem Understanding why neural networks learn competitive representations despite trivial optima.
method Empirical and theoretical analysis of a trainable, identity-initialized prediction head.
result The trainable prediction head enables learning all features, preventing dimensional collapse.

Multi-head attention outperforms single-head in in-context linear regression tasks.

problem Comparing performance of transformer with single-/multi-head attention in in-context learning.
method Theoretical analysis of performance of transformers with different attention mechanisms in linear regression tasks.
result Multi-head attention with a substantial embedding dimension outperforms single-head attention in in-context linear regression tasks.

Annealing Double-Head calibrates deep neural networks during training.

problem Overestimation or underestimation of predictive confidence in deep neural networks.
method An additional calibration head and Annealing technique to dynamically scale logits.
result State-of-the-art model calibration performance achieved without post-processing.

The paper introduces a method to decompose variance in twin networks for better treatment effect estimation.

problem Accurate treatment effect estimation requires reliable uncertainty measures to locate model failures.
method Layer-wise variance decomposition using Monte Carlo Dropout in twin networks.
result The encoder component dominates under distributional shift, providing a practical diagnostic for data collection.

Improved GRU model with multi-head cross-attention enhances stock prediction accuracy.

problem Inaccurate stock prediction due to complex market dynamics and data sparsity.
method Enhanced GRU with multi-head cross-attention for better historical information selection and latent market state learning.
result The proposed MCI-GRU model outperforms state-of-the-art techniques in multiple metrics.

A novel spatio-temporal graph neural network with a learnable Tweedie head improves vessel traffic flow prediction in sparse maritime data.

problem Accurate vessel traffic flow prediction in sparse maritime data.
method A model-agnostic learnable Tweedie head attached to ST-GNN backbones.
result The proposed head consistently improves RMSE across multiple ST-GNN backbones, especially on non-zero events.

Study on multi-head softmax attention dynamics for in-context learning.

problem Understanding and optimizing multi-head softmax attention models for multi-task linear regression.
method Gradient flow analysis and spectral mapping technique.
result Gradient flow converges to optimal multi-head softmax attention model, with task allocation emerging during training.

The paper accelerates LLM inference by adding early exit heads trained in a self-supervised manner.

problem Inference speed in large language models (LLMs) is slow and resource-intensive.
method Adding self-supervised early exit heads at intermediate transformer layers to stop computation early based on confidence thresholds.
result Entropy provides the most reliable confidence metric for stopping computation early.

This paper proposes a multi-head attention model for predicting RUL in IIoT environments.

problem Estimating RUL for complex industrial equipment using IIoT data.
method Multi-Head Attention Mechanism combined with LSTM for multi-dimensional time-series data.
result The proposed model outperforms state-of-the-art models on benchmark datasets.

New theory shows how multi-head attention reduces variance and decorrelates outputs.

problem Understanding and optimizing multi-head attention in neural networks.
method Developed a statistical theory linking multi-head attention to ensemble Nadaraya-Watson estimators.
result MHA variance reduction depends on head decorrelation, not just head count.

Geometric theory of projection heads in self-supervised learning.

problem Dimensional collapse and information invariance trade-off in projection heads.
method Geometric modeling of projection heads as Riemannian metrics, analyzing Hessian eigenvalues, and tracking optimization geometry.
result Smooth nonlinear heads induce negative curvature, preventing collapse; linear and ReLU heads cannot.

New approach improves multi-head attention by making heads less similar.

problem Multi-head attention can lead to similar features, reducing model expressiveness.
method Proposes a non-parametric approach using Bayesian techniques to make heads repel each other.
result Improves feature diversity, leading to better representations and performance.

Deep forecasting models show output heads significantly improve performance on fat-tailed financial returns.

problem Improving deep learning models for forecasting fat-tailed financial returns.
method Comparison of backbone architectures and output heads (point, Gaussian, Gaussian mixture) on S&P 500 monthly log-returns.
result Switching from point to Gaussian heads improves CRPS by about 1.3 percent, and from Gaussian to mixture adds another 2.4 percent.

Multi-head attention mechanism is capable of learning various representations from sequential data while paying attention to different subsequences, e.g., word-pieces or syllables in a spoken word. From the subsequences, it retrieves richer information than a single-head attention which only summarizes the whole sequen…

2019-10-10abs ↗pdf ↗

Attention mechanisms have become ubiquitous in NLP. Recent architectures, notably the Transformer, learn powerful context-aware word representations through layered, multi-headed attention. The multiple heads learn diverse types of word relationships. However, with standard softmax attention, all attention heads are de…

2019-08-30abs ↗pdf ↗

Ensembles of models have been empirically shown to improve predictive performance and to yield robust measures of uncertainty. However, they are expensive in computation and memory. Therefore, recent research has focused on distilling ensembles into a single compact model, reducing the computational and memory burden o…

2020-01-14abs ↗pdf ↗

A new method quantifies uncertainty in brain injury simulations.

problem High computational cost and high-dimensional inputs/outputs limit traditional UQ methods for biofidelic head models.
method Two-stage, data-driven manifold learning framework using Gaussian kernel-density estimation, diffusion maps, and Grassmannian diffusion maps.
result Surrogate models reduce computational cost while providing highly accurate approximations of the computational model.

This work proposes a collaborative multi-head attention layer to reduce model size without sacrificing accuracy.

problem Over-parameterization in transformer models trained with large datasets.
method Proposes a collaborative multi-head attention layer that shares key/query projections.
result Reduction in model size by 4 for same accuracy and speed.

Transformer-MGK replaces redundant heads with Gaussian key mixtures, improving efficiency and performance.

problem Redundant attention heads in transformers degrade performance and efficiency.
method Transformer-MGK replaces redundant heads with a mixture of Gaussian keys.
result Transformer-MGK accelerates training and inference, reduces parameters and FLOPs, and achieves comparable or better accuracy.

Attention based Transformer architecture has enabled significant advances in the field of natural language processing. In addition to new pre-training techniques, recent improvements crucially rely on working with a relatively larger embedding dimension for tokens. Unfortunately, this leads to models that are prohibiti…

2020-02-17abs ↗pdf ↗

Minimalistic model captures head direction system properties.

problem Representing head direction system in a high-dimensional space.
method A minimalistic representation model of the rotation group U(1), including fully connected and convolutional versions.
result Emergence of Gaussian-like tuning profiles and 2D circle geometry in both model versions.

Develops a mean-field theory for multi-head self-attention under cross-entropy training.

problem Mean-field analysis of multi-head self-attention under cross-entropy training.
method Mean-field theory for a simplified single-layer causal multi-head self-attention model.
result Proves a static finite-head approximation bound for the optimal risk.

This paper explores how Transformers predict next tokens in autoregressive tasks.

problem Understanding the success of Transformers in autoregressive learning.
method Trained a Transformer on a next-token prediction task, focusing on commuting orthogonal matrices.
result Trained Transformers can be seen as implementing gradient descent for a specific objective function.

Investigates the benefits of multi-head attention in Transformers, deriving convergence and generalization guarantees.

problem Underexplored dynamics of multi-head attention in Transformer training and generalization.
method Derives convergence and generalization guarantees for gradient-descent training of a multi-head self-attention model.
result Establishes conditions for initialization that ensure multi-head attention's realizability.

Unified model predicts stock and systemic risks from diverse financial data.

problem Isolating financial tasks leads to missed cross-scale dependencies.
method Shared Transformer backbone with modular task heads for cross-modal attention and multi-task optimization.
result Uni-FinLLM significantly outperforms baselines in stock forecasting, credit-risk assessment, and systemic-risk detection.

Investigates optimal parameter allocation in Transformers for efficiency and expressivity.

problem Balancing expressivity and efficiency in Transformer model parameters.
method Mathematical analysis and theoretical characterization of attention heads and head dimensions.
result Later layers can operate more efficiently with reduced parameters due to saturation of softmax activations.

We demystify attention patterns in multi-head softmax models for linear data.

problem Understanding the training dynamics and emergent patterns in multi-head softmax attention models.
method Extensive empirical experiments and rigorous theoretical analysis.
result Multi-head softmax attention models approximate a debiased gradient descent predictor, outperforming single-head attention and achieving near-Bayesian optimality.

Enhanced deep learning model predicts stock price movement using LOB data.

problem Challenges in predicting stock price movement from high-dimensional, volatile LOB data.
method Siamese architecture with multi-head attention and LSTM modules.
result Significant improvement in stock price prediction performance over strong baselines.