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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

169,042 papers · 148 categories

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48 results for prediction explanation

New definition reveals encoding explanations that retain predictive power.

problem Challenges in evaluating and identifying encoding explanations.
method Developed a definition of encoding based on conditional dependence.
result Existing evaluation scores do not rank non-encoding explanations correctly, but STRIPE-X does.

Method trains deep models to explain predictions with fewer examples.

problem Difficulty in humans understanding deep model predictions.
method Simultaneously trains prediction and explanation models with sparse regularization.
result Improves faithfulness of explanations with fewer examples while maintaining predictive performance.

Study finds visual explanations do not significantly improve human accuracy or trust in model predictions.

problem Measuring the impact of visual explanations on human accuracy and trust in model predictions.
method Randomized controlled trial with image-based age prediction task, varying levels of explanation quality.
result Visual explanations do not significantly alter human accuracy or trust in the model.

This research examines how model explanations change under distribution shifts in tabular data.

problem Detecting distribution shifts in tabular data affecting model performance and explanations.
method Investigates the relationship between model performance and explanation characteristics under distribution shifts.
result Explanation shifts are a better indicator for detecting predictive performance changes than traditional distribution shift techniques.

TED framework teaches AI to explain decisions, improving accuracy.

problem Providing understandable explanations for AI predictions in high-stakes applications.
method Augmenting training data with explanations from domain users, using embeddings and multi-task learning.
result AI models can be taught to provide meaningful explanations, sometimes improving accuracy.

RAW-Explainer generates interpretable subgraph explanations for link predictions in knowledge graphs.

problem Interpreting GNN predictions for link prediction in heterogeneous settings is challenging.
method RAW-Explainer uses random walk objective and neural network to generate connected, concise subgraph explanations.
result RAW-Explainer strikes a balance between explanation quality and computational efficiency.

ID-ExpO fine-tunes neural networks for more faithful explanations.

problem Improving the faithfulness of explanations for complex machine learning models.
method Differentiable insertion/deletion metric-aware regularizers for optimization.
result Fine-tuned predictors produce more faithful explanations.

The study evaluates how well local explanations align with model predictions.

problem Capturing the faithfulness of local explanations to model predictions.
method Introducing consistency and sufficiency as properties, and developing quantitative measures and estimators.
result Quantitative measures of consistency and sufficiency depend on test-time data distribution.

New research challenges the idea that counterfactual explanations should be sparse.

problem Predictive multiplicity leads to multiple models giving almost equal solutions.
method Derive a general upper bound for counterfactual costs under multiplicity and compare sparse vs. data support approaches.
result Data support methods are more robust to multiplicity but have higher counterfactual costs.

Modern learning algorithms excel at producing accurate but complex models of the data. However, deploying such models in the real-world requires extra care: we must ensure their reliability, robustness, and absence of undesired biases. This motivates the development of models that are equally accurate but can be also e…

2017-05-29abs ↗pdf ↗

Unified metric c-Eval evaluates feature-based explanations by perturbation.

problem Lack of consensus on evaluating feature-based local explanations.
method Introduces c-Eval metric and framework to quantify explanation quality.
result c-Eval captures the importance of input features and is applicable in adversarial-robust models.

This study analyzes counterfactual explanations for student success models.

problem Improving trust in machine learning models for student success prediction.
method Comparison of counterfactual generation methods (WhatIf, Multi-Objective, Nearest Instance) for student success prediction models.
result WhatIf Counterfactual Explanations are more effective for student success prediction models.

New method provides calibrated feature importance explanations for regression models.

problem Lack of uncertainty quantification in existing local explanation methods.
method Extension of Calibrated Explanations method to support regression and probabilistic regression.
result Calibrated Explanations for regression provides quantified uncertainty and robust explanations.

Study proposes explainable analytics for manufacturing process planning.

problem Improving data-driven decision-making in manufacturing.
method Combines process mining, machine learning, and XAI. Uses deep learning for prediction and Shapley values/ICE plots for explanations.
result Enhanced decision-making capabilities through local post-hoc explanations.

Study on the relationship between explanations and predictions in machine learning models.

problem Understanding the relationship between explanations and predictions in machine learning models.
method Causal inference to measure treatment effect on hyperparameters and inputs.
result The relationship between explanations and predictions is far from ideal, especially in high-performing models.

This research investigates reliable local explanations for machine listening models.

problem Generating reliable local explanations for machine listening models.
method Investigates the sensitivity of SoundLIME explanations to input perturbations and proposes a novel method for identifying suitable content types.
result SoundLIME explanations are sensitive to the content in occluded input regions, and the average magnitude of input mel-spectrogram bins is the most suitable content type for temporal explanations.

We introduce a new method to explain Gaussian processes using Shapley values.

problem Explaining the uncertainty in Gaussian process models.
method Extending Shapley values to stochastic cooperative games for Gaussian processes.
result Our method generates explanations that are random variables and satisfy favorable axioms.

Study investigates how AI can create and detect deceptive explanations, finding they can fool humans but ML can detect them.

problem The risk of deceptive AI explanations increasing trust issues and economic risks.
method Investigates creation and detection of deceptive explanations using AI models and machine learning methods.
result Deceptive explanations can fool humans, but ML can detect them with high accuracy.

Paper proposes Coalitional BAE to improve explainability of unsupervised deep learning models.

problem Improving explainability of Autoencoder's predictions.
method Introduces Coalitional BAE, inspired by agent-based system theory, to reduce correlation in explanations.
result Improved quality of explanations using Coalitional BAE on publicly available datasets.

A framework generates diverse counterfactual explanations for machine learning models.

problem Creating understandable explanations for machine learning predictions.
method Framework based on determinantal point processes for generating and evaluating diverse counterfactuals.
result Framework generates diverse counterfactuals that approximate local decision boundaries better than prior approaches.

LIMEtree offers faithful explanations for multiple classes in predictive models.

problem Generating explanations for several classes can be difficult due to conflicting evidence.
method LIMEtree uses multi-output regression trees for consistent and faithful explanations of multiple classes.
result LIMEtree provides diverse explanation types and outperforms LIME in evaluations.

We generate counterfactual explanations for tree-based boosting ensembles.

problem Understanding how tree-based models make predictions.
method Extending a method for random forests to GBDTs, accounting for tree sequential dependency and negative gradients.
result A method to generate counterfactual explanations for GBDTs.

We propose a general model explanation system (MES) for "explaining" the output of black box classifiers. This paper describes extensions to Turner (2015), which is referred to frequently in the text. We use the motivating example of a classifier trained to detect fraud in a credit card transaction history. The key asp…

2016-06-30abs ↗pdf ↗

GRACE generates concise explanations for neural networks on tabular data.

problem Lack of explainable AI solutions for neural networks on tabular data.
method Borrowing ideas from causality and philosophy, GRACE generates contrastive samples to explain neural network predictions.
result GRACE explanations are more intuitive and lead to better decision-making.

Fraud detection is a difficult problem that can benefit from predictive modeling. However, the verification of a prediction is challenging; for a single insurance policy, the model only provides a prediction score. We present a case study where we reflect on different instance-level model explanation techniques to aid …

2018-06-19abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper examines risks of unjustified counterfactual explanations from post-hoc interpretability models.

problem Risks of generating unjustified counterfactual explanations from post-hoc interpretability models.
method Investigates local neighborhoods of instances for justification and compares state-of-the-art approaches.
result High risk of generating unjustified counterfactual examples, leading to less useful explanations.

Many methods to explain black-box models, whether local or global, are additive. In this paper, we study global additive explanations for non-additive models, focusing on four explanation methods: partial dependence, Shapley explanations adapted to a global setting, distilled additive explanations, and gradient-based e…

2018-01-26abs ↗pdf ↗

Improves local model explanations using GANs and Linear Model Trees.

problem Need for accurate and intuitive explanations of complex machine learning models.
method Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) for synthetic data generation and Linear Model Trees for surrogate model training.
result Significantly improved local model explanations with contextual information.

Develops counterfactual visual explanations to show how images could change to classify differently.

problem Creating understandable explanations for vision system predictions.
method Selects a distractor image and identifies spatial regions to modify for different classification.
result Users trained with counterfactual explanations perform better in fine-grained bird classification.

Generative models explain machine learning predictions with counterfactual instances.

problem Generating human-interpretable insights into machine learning model predictions.
method Sparse counterfactual explanations using conditional generative models.
result Single forward pass generates batches of counterfactual instances.