A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
New criterion improves predictive evaluation in weighted inference scenarios.
Proposes a new hyperprior and predictive criterion for weakly informative hyperprior in relevance vector machine.
The Kelly Criterion is applied to prediction markets to analyze risk and return.
Proposes a new criterion for reliable uncertainty estimation in deep neural networks.
In the information-based paradigm of inference, model selection is performed by selecting the candidate model with the best estimated predictive performance. The success of this approach depends on the accuracy of the estimate of the predictive complexity. In the large-sample-size limit of a regular model, the predicti…
We introduce a new criterion to determine the order of an autoregressive model fitted to time series data. It has the benefits of the two well-known model selection techniques, the Akaike information criterion and the Bayesian information criterion. When the data is generated from a finite order autoregression, the Bay…
Study proposes a stopping criterion for active learning based on error stability.
Random survival forests (RSF) are a powerful method for risk prediction of right-censored outcomes in biomedical research. RSF use the log-rank split criterion to form an ensemble of survival trees. The most common approach to evaluate the prediction accuracy of a RSF model is Harrell's concordance index for survival d…
Recidivism prediction instruments provide decision makers with an assessment of the likelihood that a criminal defendant will reoffend at a future point in time. While such instruments are gaining increasing popularity across the country, their use is attracting tremendous controversy. Much of the controversy concerns …
Maximizes stock portfolio predictability using machine learning.
Stochastic structured prediction under bandit feedback follows a learning protocol where on each of a sequence of iterations, the learner receives an input, predicts an output structure, and receives partial feedback in form of a task loss evaluation of the predicted structure. We present applications of this learning …
Paper introduces NICc for fast cluster-based validation of prediction models.
Machine learning algorithms aim at minimizing the number of false decisions and increasing the accuracy of predictions. However, the high predictive power of advanced algorithms comes at the costs of transparency. State-of-the-art methods, such as neural networks and ensemble methods, often result in highly complex mod…
Bayesian Pseudo Label Selection reduces overfitting in semi-supervised learning.
In this paper we consider the problem of Gaussian process classifier (GPC) model selection with different Leave-One-Out (LOO) Cross Validation (CV) based optimization criteria and provide a practical algorithm using LOO predictive distributions with such criteria to select hyperparameters. Apart from the standard avera…
Neural networks have achieved dramatic improvements in recent years and depict the state-of-the-art methods for many real-world tasks nowadays. One drawback is, however, that many of these models are overparameterized, which makes them both computationally and memory intensive. Furthermore, overparameterization can als…
Assessing reliably the confidence of a deep neural network and predicting its failures is of primary importance for the practical deployment of these models. In this paper, we propose a new target criterion for model confidence, corresponding to the True Class Probability (TCP). We show how using the TCP is more suited…
Collaborative filtering (CF) aims to predict users' ratings on items according to historical user-item preference data. In many real-world applications, preference data are usually sparse, which would make models overfit and fail to give accurate predictions. Recently, several research works show that by transferring k…
Sepsis, a dysregulated immune system response to infection, is among the leading causes of morbidity, mortality, and cost overruns in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU). Early prediction of sepsis can improve situational awareness amongst clinicians and facilitate timely, protective interventions. While the application of p…
Develops a new criterion for subgroup fairness in algorithmic decision support.
ITCA optimizes label combination for ambiguous outcomes in multi-class classification.
A new method calibrates value predictions in offline RL to improve reliability.
K-fold cross-validation (CV) with squared error loss is widely used for evaluating predictive models, especially when strong distributional assumptions cannot be taken. However, CV with squared error loss is not free from distributional assumptions, in particular in cases involving non-i.i.d. data. This paper analyzes …
Four geometries govern sequential and distribution-free inference.
Enhances predictive models against misspecification and outliers.
New rationalization method avoids spurious correlations.
Statistical inference is considered for variables of interest, called primary variables, when auxiliary variables are observed along with the primary variables. We consider the setting of incomplete data analysis, where some primary variables are not observed. Utilizing a parametric model of joint distribution of prima…
A new BO termination criterion for HPO reduces optimization time without sacrificing test performance.
Covariance-Driven Regression Trees reduce overfitting in CART.
The study evaluates different parameter selection methods for Gaussian process interpolation.
Exact distribution of split conformal prediction coverage found.
In this paper, we propose several improvements on the block-coordinate Frank-Wolfe (BCFW) algorithm from Lacoste-Julien et al. (2013) recently used to optimize the structured support vector machine (SSVM) objective in the context of structured prediction, though it has wider applications. The key intuition behind our i…
A criterion for training-free time-lagged spectral embeddings of multivariate time series
Prediction markets can shape political behavior through persistent signals, not just forecast accuracy.
Paper develops a method to predict spatial point processes with guarantees.
We test three common information criteria (IC) for selecting the order of a Hawkes process with an intensity kernel that can be expressed as a mixture of exponential terms. These processes find application in high-frequency financial data modelling. The information criteria are Akaike's information criterion (AIC), the…
Model discrimination identifies a mathematical model that usefully explains and predicts a given system's behaviour. Researchers will often have several models, i.e. hypotheses, about an underlying system mechanism, but insufficient experimental data to discriminate between the models, i.e. discard inaccurate models. G…
New method identifies wrongly predicted samples for active learning.
Enhances credit card limit adjustments by considering treatment uncertainty and prediction criteria.
The paper proposes a method to reliably select design algorithms for machine learning-guided design tasks.
Constrained adaptive filtering algorithms inculding constrained least mean square (CLMS), constrained affine projection (CAP) and constrained recursive least squares (CRLS) have been extensively studied in many applications. Most existing constrained adaptive filtering algorithms are developed under mean square error (…
A framework to compare federated learning algorithms in high-dimensional settings.
This paper investigates two feature-scoring criteria that make use of estimated class probabilities: one method proposed by \citet{shen} and a complementary approach proposed below. We develop a theoretical framework to analyze each criterion and show that both estimate the spread (across all values of a given feature)…
fAux tests individual fairness without domain knowledge or out-of-domain samples.
Recidivism prediction instruments (RPI's) provide decision makers with an assessment of the likelihood that a criminal defendant will reoffend at a future point in time. While such instruments are gaining increasing popularity across the country, their use is attracting tremendous controversy. Much of the controversy c…
This paper addresses the problem of active learning of a multi-output Gaussian process (MOGP) model representing multiple types of coexisting correlated environmental phenomena. In contrast to existing works, our active learning problem involves selecting not just the most informative sampling locations to be observed …
Paper detects anomalous edges in social networks using edge exchangeability.
Study disproves a generalized numerical criterion for certain pairs.