Many economic applications including optimal pricing and inventory management requires prediction of demand based on sales data and estimation of sales reaction to a price change. There is a wide range of econometric approaches which are used to correct a bias in estimates of demand parameters on censored sales data. T…
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arXiv research
A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
168,742 papers · 148 categories
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48 results for “prediction accountability”
Proving prediction prudenceq-fin.RM
Tests assess if predictions are prudent by comparing observations and predictions.
problem Assessing the prudence of predictions in samples of observations and predictions.
method Bootstrap and normal approximation algorithms for testing unweighted and weighted means, accounting for randomness.
result Tests reveal whether predictions are prudent by showing significantly negative mean differences.
Narrative disclosures in 10-K filings improve bankruptcy prediction beyond accounting ratios.
problem Traditional bankruptcy prediction models rely on accounting ratios, which may not capture early warning signals.
method Developed a PB Stress Score based on distress-specific language in 10-K narratives, evaluated against accounting and dictionary benchmarks.
result Adding the PB Stress Score increases AUC from 0.8323 to 0.9019 and improves top-decile bankruptcy capture from 44.12% to 64.71%.
Paper uses Monte Carlo simulations to predict retirement portfolios.
problem Retirement financial planning uncertainty.
method Monte Carlo simulations incorporating inflation, interest rates, etc.
result Probabilistic prediction of IRA and 401(k) values.
Proposes a credit scoring system for Aave accounts.
problem Scoring the creditworthiness of DeFi accounts.
method Tree-based binary classifier for predicting delinquency.
result Validated the credit scoring system for Aave accounts.
Simple bounds show most cross-sectional predictability findings are likely true.
problem Determining the validity of cross-sectional return predictability findings.
method Developed simple and intuitive bounds on the false discovery rate (FDR).
result Bounds show the FDR is small, indicating most findings are likely true.
Assessment of risk levels for existing credit accounts is important to the implementation of bank policies and offering financial products. This paper uses cluster analysis of behaviour of credit card accounts to help assess credit risk level. Account behaviour is modelled parametrically and we then implement the behav…
New model uses financial filings to predict bankruptcy, even without MDA sections.
problem Lack of complete MDA data limits traditional bankruptcy prediction models.
method Conditional Multimodal Discriminative (CMMD) model learns from accounting, market, and textual data.
result Empirical results show superior classification performance compared to traditional models.
Generative model predicts menstrual cycle lengths accounting for self-tracking artifacts.
problem Uncertainty in self-tracked health data due to user adherence.
method Hierarchical, generative model using machine learning.
result Model yields state-of-the-art performance in predicting menstrual cycle lengths.
Deep neural networks predict earthquake locations with high accuracy.
problem Predicting the location of earthquakes with high precision.
method Recurrent Convolutional Neural Networks (R-CNN) model that accounts for spatio-temporal dependencies.
result Neural networks model outperforms baseline models in predicting earthquakes with ROC AUC 0.975 and PR AUC 0.0890.
Framework improves PV forecasting by accounting for missing data uncertainty.
problem Uncertainty from missing data in PV power data.
method Combines stochastic multiple imputation with Rubin's rule.
result Improves prediction interval calibration without sacrificing point prediction accuracy.
Proposes handling ambiguity in sequential data predictions.
problem Handling uncertainty in sequential data predictions.
method Extension of MHP model to recurrent architectures, introducing a novel metric.
result Achieved promising results on various sequential data tasks.
Gaussian processes are improved to account for input noise in earth observation.
problem Accurate error assessment in earth observation models.
method Propose a GP model that propagates input noise through the pipeline.
result Improved error representation in temperature predictions from infrared data.
High-Throughput Asset Pricingq-fin.GN
EB improves asset pricing by mining large strategies without lookahead bias.
problem Lack of unbiased asset pricing models with out-of-sample performance.
method Empirical Bayes applied to 136,000 long-short strategies.
result EB provides unbiased predictions with transparent intuition.
Fake engagement is one of the significant problems in Online Social Networks (OSNs) which is used to increase the popularity of an account in an inorganic manner. The detection of fake engagement is crucial because it leads to loss of money for businesses, wrong audience targeting in advertising, wrong product predicti…
Detects malicious accounts in permissionless blockchains using graph properties and ML.
problem Identifying and classifying malicious accounts in permissionless blockchains.
method Temporal graph properties, ML algorithms (ExtraTreesClassifier, K-Means), cosine similarity, behavior change analysis.
result ExtraTreesClassifier performs best in detecting malicious accounts on Ethereum blockchain.
By interpreting a traffic scene as a graph of interacting vehicles, we gain a flexible abstract representation which allows us to apply Graph Neural Network (GNN) models for traffic prediction. These naturally take interaction between traffic participants into account while being computationally efficient and providing…
We address one of the crucial aspects necessary for safe and efficient operations of autonomous vehicles, namely predicting future state of traffic actors in the autonomous vehicle's surroundings. We introduce a deep learning-based approach that takes into account a current world state and produces raster images of eac…
AI-driven sales prioritization boosts renewal bookings by 8.08%.
problem Manual sales account prioritization is inefficient and under-invested.
method Developed an AI-based Account Prioritizer using machine learning and explanation algorithms.
result Generated a +8.08% increase in renewal bookings.
In this paper, we consider a problem of failure prediction in the context of predictive maintenance applications. We present a new approach for rare failures prediction, based on a general methodology, which takes into account peculiar properties of technical systems. We illustrate the applicability of the method on th…
The paper addresses GP dynamics by improving simulation and prediction accuracy.
problem GP dynamics often underestimate prediction uncertainty, leading to safety issues.
method The paper introduces sampling-based and linearization-based techniques to account for the correlation between successive function evaluations.
result The proposed methods provide more accurate trajectory distributions and prediction uncertainties.
The paper advocates for interpretable, accountable, reproducible machine learning in medicine.
problem Black box models in medicine lack transparency and regulatory approval.
method Intrinsically interpretable modeling approaches and collaborative learning paradigms.
result Interpretable machine learning models can support clinical decisions and gain regulatory approval.
Unified model improves multi-task learning by accounting for temporal misalignment.
problem Poor predictive performance and uncertainty quantification due to temporal misalignment in multi-task learning.
method Uses Gaussian processes to model correlations and includes a monotonic warp of the input data to account for temporal misalignment.
result Improves predictive performance and uncertainty quantification in multi-task learning.
New method uses conformal prediction for time series forecasting, accounting for temporal correlation.
problem Uncertainty quantification in temporally correlated time series data.
method Time series decomposition with component-wise conformal prediction.
result The method provides customized prediction intervals for different temporal components.
Understanding how "black-box" models arrive at their predictions has sparked significant interest from both within and outside the AI community. Our work focuses on doing this by generating local explanations about individual predictions for tree-based ensembles, specifically Gradient Boosting Decision Trees (GBDTs). G…
MAPS algorithm creates reliable prediction intervals for high-dimensional data.
problem Computing reliable conditional prediction intervals in high-dimensional settings.
method Lifted predictive model (LPM) and MAPS algorithm for distribution-free intervals.
result MAPS algorithm produces valid prediction intervals for any trained model.
New algorithm reduces discrimination in predictions.
problem Tackles potential discrimination in AI predictions.
method Integrates fairness adjustments into tree-building process.
result Reduces discriminatory predictions without significant loss in accuracy.
Survival Cluster Analysisstat.ML
Bayesian approach clusters survival data for better risk prediction.
problem Identifying subpopulations with distinct risk profiles in survival analysis.
method Bayesian nonparametric approach in a clustered latent space.
result Consistent improvements in predictive performance and interpretability.
Where machine-learned predictive risk scores inform high-stakes decisions, such as bail and sentencing in criminal justice, fairness has been a serious concern. Recent work has characterized the disparate impact that such risk scores can have when used for a binary classification task. This may not account, however, fo…
Three methods detect informed trading on prediction markets, each focusing on different aspects.
problem Detecting informed trading in decentralized prediction markets.
method Composite screen, event-level sign-randomization test, and Information Leakage Score (ILS) framework.
result Different methods detect informed trading on prediction markets, each focusing on different aspects.
Modeling shared mobility demand considering supply limitations.
problem Inaccurate demand predictions due to limited supply.
method Censored Gaussian Processes for demand modeling.
result Taking supply limitations into account improves demand predictions.
AI bias arises from human-defined goals, not algorithmic flaws.
problem AI bias due to human-defined goals in LLMs.
method Purpose-conditioned cognition and revealing downstream use of LLM outputs.
result AI bias can be reduced by purpose-aware prompting but not fully by regularization.
Unified Bayesian model explains in-context learning and activation steering in LLMs.
problem Understanding and controlling the behavior of large language models (LLMs) through prompts and activations.
method Developed a Bayesian model to explain and predict the effects of in-context learning and activation steering.
result Unified model predicts distinct phases and sudden shifts in LLM behavior, explaining prior empirical phenomena.
Blockchain technology shows significant results and huge potential for serving as an interweaving fabric that goes through every industry and market, allowing decentralized and secure value exchange, thus connecting our civilization like never before. The standard approach for asset value predictions is based on market…
In this study, we present a multi-class graphical Bayesian predictive classifier that incorporates the uncertainty in the model selection into the standard Bayesian formalism. For each class, the dependence structure underlying the observed features is represented by a set of decomposable Gaussian graphical models. Emp…
Quantitative analysis of order-splitting behavior in Japanese stock market.
problem Understanding and quantifying the order-splitting behavior of traders in the Japanese stock market.
method Analysis of a large dataset of trading accounts over nine years, clustering traders into order-splitting and random traders, and applying statistical methods to analyze metaorder length and sign correlation.
result The metaorder length distribution follows power laws with exponent α, and the sign correlation exponent γ is approximately α-1, supporting the LMF model.
Study compares resampling methods for rare event prediction in longitudinal studies.
problem Predicting rare events in longitudinal follow-up studies.
method Comparison of resampling methods to improve standard regression models.
result Effect of sampling rate on model predictive performance.
Introduces lookahead counterfactual fairness to account for downstream effects of ML predictions.
problem Downstream effects of ML predictions on individuals not considered by counterfactual fairness.
method Introduces lookahead counterfactual fairness (LCF), a new fairness notion that considers future status. Proposes an algorithm based on theoretical conditions.
result Proposes an algorithm to achieve lookahead counterfactual fairness and validates it on synthetic and real data.
Model improves mortgage credit risk prediction with spatio-temporal machine learning.
problem Improving accuracy of default probabilities and loan portfolio loss distributions in mortgage credit risk.
method Combines tree-boosting with a latent spatio-temporal Gaussian process model.
result Predictive models outperform conventional methods due to non-linear and spatio-temporal effects.
Paper compares stock price prediction models using Heston and Geometric Brownian Motion.
problem Predicting stock prices accurately.
method Developed Heston and Geometric Brownian Motion models using Ito's lemma and Euler-Maruyama methods.
result Models outperform statistical indicators in predicting stock prices.
In recent years, probabilistic forecasts techniques were proposed in research as well as in applications to integrate volatile renewable energy resources into the electrical grid. These techniques allow decision makers to take the uncertainty of the prediction into account and, therefore, to devise optimal decisions, e…
RR-GNN improves GNN prediction intervals by accounting for graph heteroscedasticity and structural biases.
problem Uncertainty quantification in GNNs for high-stakes domains.
method Graph-Structured Mondrian CP, Residual-Adaptive Nonconformity Scores, Cross-Training Protocol.
result Improved efficiency and no loss of coverage compared to CP baselines.
Many AI problems, in robotics and other domains, are goal-directed, essentially seeking a trajectory leading to some goal state. In such problems, the way we choose to represent a trajectory underlies algorithms for trajectory prediction and optimization. Interestingly, most all prior work in imitation and reinforcemen…
Kriging predicts futures prices by accounting for trends and bid-ask spreads.
problem Predicting futures prices with trends and bid-ask spreads.
method Bayesian Kriging technique to model term structure.
result Kriging accurately predicts futures prices with embedded trends and bid-ask spreads.
The paper argues that machine learning is a falsificationist process.
problem The role of falsification in machine learning is underexplored.
method The paper presents a falsificationist account of artificial neural networks, emphasizing empirical risk minimization and implicit regularization.
result Artificial neural networks can be seen as a falsificationist process, rejecting inadequate prediction rules.
With continuous glucose monitoring (CGM), data-driven models on blood glucose prediction have been shown to be effective in related work. However, such (CGM) systems are not always available, e.g., for a patient at home. In this work, we conduct a study on 9 patients and examine the online predictability of data-driven…
The Availability bias, manifested in the over-representation of extreme eventualities in decision-making, is a well-known cognitive bias, and is generally taken as evidence of human irrationality. In this work, we present the first rational, metacognitive account of the Availability bias, formally articulated at Marr's…
Bayesian method for semi-structured models accounts for both types of uncertainty.
problem Lack of work on epistemic uncertainty in semi-structured regression models.
method Bayesian approximation with subspace inference for joint posterior sampling.
result Validated approach recovers structured effect posteriors and approaches full-space posterior.