A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
This paper explores methods for combining predictions in multilabel classification.
Heat demand prediction is a prominent research topic in the area of intelligent energy networks. It has been well recognized that periodicity is one of the important characteristics of heat demand. Seasonal-trend decomposition based on LOESS (STL) algorithm can analyze the periodicity of a heat demand series, and decom…
Combining Bayesian deep learning and split conformal prediction affects out-of-distribution coverage.
One of the promising methods for the treatment of complex diseases such as cancer is combinational therapy. Due to the combinatorial complexity, machine learning models can be useful in this field, where significant improvements have recently been achieved in determination of synergistic combinations. In this study, we…
We have developed a strategy for the analysis of newly available binary data to improve outcome predictions based on existing data (binary or non-binary). Our strategy involves two modeling approaches for the newly available data, one combining binary covariate selection via LASSO with logistic regression and one based…
Drug resistance is still a major challenge in cancer therapy. Drug combination is expected to overcome drug resistance. However, the number of possible drug combinations is enormous, and thus it is infeasible to experimentally screen all effective drug combinations considering the limited resources. Therefore, computat…
CREDO combines credal and conformal methods to create interpretable prediction intervals.
While we would like to predict exact values, available incomplete information is rarely sufficient - usually allowing only to predict conditional probability distributions. This article discusses hierarchical correlation reconstruction (HCR) methodology for such prediction on example of usually unavailable bid-ask spre…
ITCA optimizes label combination for ambiguous outcomes in multi-class classification.
For the prediction with experts' advice setting, we construct forecasting algorithms that suffer loss not much more than any expert in the pool. In contrast to the standard approach, we investigate the case of long-term forecasting of time series and consider two scenarios. In the first one, at each step the learne…
Combines BART and Gaussian process for spatial covariate prediction with uncertainty.
A continuing challenge for machine learning is providing methods to perform computation on data while ensuring the data remains private. In this paper we build on the provable privacy guarantees of differential privacy which has been combined with Gaussian processes through the previously published \emph{cloaking metho…
In this study, we introduce a new approach to combine multi-classifiers in an ensemble system. Instead of using numeric membership values encountered in fixed combining rules, we construct interval membership values associated with each class prediction at the level of meta-data of observation by using concepts of info…
Conformal Prediction is a framework that produces prediction intervals based on the output from a machine learning algorithm. In this paper we explore the case when training data is made up of multiple parts available in different sources that cannot be pooled. We here consider the regression case and propose a method …
Prediction is one of the major challenges in complex systems. The prediction methods have shown to be effective predictors of the evolution of networks. These methods can help policy makers to solve practical problems successfully and make better strategy for the future. In this work, we focus on exporting countries' d…
Novel method combines neural network features with survival models for ICU infections.
The paper tackles extrapolation of gene knockouts effects on RNA counts.
Conformal Prediction is a machine learning methodology that produces valid prediction regions under mild conditions. In this paper, we explore the application of making predictions over multiple data sources of different sizes without disclosing data between the sources. We propose that each data source applies a trans…
Methods for combining predictions from different models in a supervised learning setting must somehow estimate/predict the quality of a model's predictions at unknown future inputs. Many of these methods (often implicitly) make the assumption that the test inputs are identical to the training inputs, which is seldom re…
Predicting the next position of movable objects has been a problem for at least the last three decades, referred to as trajectory prediction. In our days, the vast amounts of data being continuously produced add the big data dimension to the trajectory prediction problem, which we are trying to tackle by creating a λ-A…
In order to scale standard Gaussian process (GP) regression to large-scale datasets, aggregation models employ factorized training process and then combine predictions from distributed experts. The state-of-the-art aggregation models, however, either provide inconsistent predictions or require time-consuming aggregatio…
This paper improves risk bounds and calibration for smart predict-then-optimize method.
Traffic flow forecasting is hot spot research of intelligent traffic system construction. The existing traffic flow prediction methods have problems such as poor stability, high data requirements, or poor adaptability. In this paper, we define the traffic data time singularity ratio in the dropout module and propose a …
Multiple classifier system (MCS) has become a successful alternative for improving classification performance. However, studies have shown inconsistent results for different MCSs, and it is often difficult to predict which MCS algorithm works the best on a particular problem. We believe that the two crucial steps of MC…
We first proved a compactness theorem of the Kähler metrics, which confirms a prediction of Chen. Then we prove several eigenvalue estimates along the Calabi flow. Combining the compactness theorem and these eigenvalue estimates, we generalize the method developed by Chen-Li-Wang to prove the small energy theorems of t…
Study improves cross-modal bike-share and transit demand prediction.
Gradient boosting of regression trees is a competitive procedure for learning predictive models of continuous data that fits the data with an additive non-parametric model. The classic version of gradient boosting assumes that the data is independent and identically distributed. However, relational data with interdepen…
DeepVARMA predicts chemical industry index trends using LSTM and VARMAX models.
Relational machine learning studies methods for the statistical analysis of relational, or graph-structured, data. In this paper, we provide a review of how such statistical models can be "trained" on large knowledge graphs, and then used to predict new facts about the world (which is equivalent to predicting new edges…
Various factorization-based methods have been proposed to leverage second-order, or higher-order cross features for boosting the performance of predictive models. They generally enumerate all the cross features under a predefined maximum order, and then identify useful feature interactions through model training, which…
Ensemble learning that can be used to combine the predictions from multiple learners has been widely applied in pattern recognition, and has been reported to be more robust and accurate than the individual learners. This ensemble logic has recently also been more applied in feature selection. There are basically two st…
In industrial data analytics, one of the fundamental problems is to utilize the temporal correlation of the industrial data to make timely predictions in the production process, such as fault prediction and yield prediction. However, the traditional prediction models are fixed while the conditions of the machines chang…
Unified model combines feature and label propagation for semi-supervised classification.
Predictive models are finding an increasing number of applications in many industries. As a result, a practical means for trading-off the cost of deploying a model versus its effectiveness is needed. Our work is motivated by risk prediction problems in healthcare. Cost-structures in domains such as healthcare are quite…
Boosting is a learning scheme that combines weak prediction rules to produce a strong composite estimator, with the underlying intuition that one can obtain accurate prediction rules by combining "rough" ones. Although boosting is proved to be consistent and overfitting-resistant, its numerical convergence rate is rela…
We present a powerful general framework for designing data-dependent optimization algorithms, building upon and unifying recent techniques in adaptive regularization, optimistic gradient predictions, and problem-dependent randomization. We first present a series of new regret guarantees that hold at any time and under …
Background: The problem of predicting whether a drug combination of arbitrary orders is likely to induce adverse drug reactions is considered in this manuscript. Methods: Novel kernels over drug combinations of arbitrary orders are developed within support vector machines for the prediction. Graph matching methods are …
Predicts clinical events using a landmark approach with machine learning for large biomarker histories.
In the era of big data, a large amount of noisy and incomplete data can be collected from multiple sources for prediction tasks. Combining multiple models or data sources helps to counteract the effects of low data quality and the bias of any single model or data source, and thus can improve the robustness and the perf…
In situations like tax declarations or analyzes of household budgets we would like to automatically evaluate credibility of exogenous variable (declared income) based on some available (endogenous) variables - we want to build a model and train it on provided data sample to predict (conditional) probability distributio…
New model uses financial news to predict stock returns.
Boosting trees predict Twitch subscriptions from user activity.
The high level of attrition and low rate of certification in Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) has prompted a great deal of research. Prior researchers have focused on predicting dropout based upon behavioral features such as student confusion, click-stream patterns, and social interactions. However, few studies have…
PAS improves estimation of multiple means using ML predictions and shrinkage.
New methods combine model predictions to avoid linear mixtures' limitations.
AER combines auto-encoder and LSTM for better time series anomaly detection.
Efficiently combines probabilistic predictions using kernel embeddings.
We compare two recently proposed methods that combine ideas from conformal inference and quantile regression to produce locally adaptive and marginally valid prediction intervals under sample exchangeability (Romano et al., 2019; Kivaranovic et al., 2019). First, we prove that these two approaches are asymptotically ef…