PO-Flow models potential and counterfactual outcomes for personalized treatment decisions.
problem Predicting individualized treatment effects from observational data.
method Continuous normalizing flow (CNF) framework for causal inference.
result Unified approach to potential outcome prediction, treatment effect estimation, and counterfactual prediction.
The paper introduces metrics to rank potential outcomes for better decision-making.
problem Optimal action selection in uncertain situations using causal reasoning.
method Introducing two new metrics: probabilities of potential outcome ranking (PoR) and probability of achieving the best potential outcome (PoB). Establishing identification theorems and deriving bounds for these metrics, and presenting estimation methods.
result The estimators' finite-sample properties and their application to a real-world dataset are demonstrated.
Unified approach for estimating quantiles of potential outcomes using inverse estimating equations.
problem Estimating quantiles of potential outcomes for causal inference.
method Inverse estimating equations and moment function.
result Unified approach to estimate mean and quantiles of potential outcomes.
CCN estimates full potential outcome distributions without restrictive assumptions.
problem Estimating CATE is insufficient; full potential outcome distributions provide greater insights.
method Collaborating Causal Networks (CCN) learns full potential outcome distributions without restrictive assumptions.
result CCN learns distributions that asymptotically capture true potential outcome distributions.
Paper introduces GDR-learners for estimating potential outcomes from observational data.
problem Lack of theoretical property of general Neyman-orthogonality in deep generative models.
method Develops flexible GDR-learners based on various deep generative models.
result GDR-learners possess quasi-oracle efficiency and rate double robustness, asymptotically optimal.
The paper bounds and identifies joint probabilities in causal inference with monotonicity assumptions.
problem Bounding and identifying joint probabilities of potential outcomes and observed variables under monotonicity assumptions.
method Proposes new families of monotonicity assumptions, formulates bounding problem as linear programming, introduces new monotonicity assumption for identification.
result Validated methods through numerical experiments and applied to real-world datasets.
This tutorial introduces causal modeling methods for researchers.
problem Understanding causal relationships in research studies.
method Integrates potential outcomes and graphical methods for causal modeling.
result Clear notation and practical examples for applied researchers.
Study clarifies variance of stratification estimators for causal effects.
problem Estimating average causal effects with discrete covariates.
method Combines insights from potential outcomes, causal diagrams, and structural models.
result Derives expressions for the variance of stratification estimators.
Proposes a method to improve CATE estimation by imputing missing potential outcomes.
problem Statistical discrepancy between distinct treatment groups in CATE estimation.
method Contrastive learning approach to reliably impute missing potential outcomes for a subset of individuals.
result Improves the accuracy and robustness of CATE estimation models.
Two new methods generate probabilistic forecasts of individual treatment effects.
problem Generating probabilistic forecasts of individual treatment effects for risk-aware decision-making.
method Proposes CCT and CMC meta-learners combining conformal predictive systems with analytic convolution or Monte Carlo sampling.
result Achieve probabilistically calibrated predictive distributions and performant continuous ranked probability scores.
We study how language on social media is linked to diseases such as atherosclerotic heart disease (AHD), diabetes and various types of cancer. Our proposed model leverages state-of-the-art sentence embeddings, followed by a regression model and clustering, without the need of additional labelled data. It allows to pred…
Estimation of individual treatment effects is commonly used as the basis for contextual decision making in fields such as healthcare, education, and economics. However, it is often sufficient for the decision maker to have estimates of upper and lower bounds on the potential outcomes of decision alternatives to assess …
The paper identifies the best treatment to maximize NDPO, a key outcome in causal mediation analysis.
problem Identifying the treatment that maximizes the expected natural direct potential outcome (NDPO) in causal mediation analysis.
method Developed a fixed-confidence best-arm identification (BAI) algorithm based on the Track-and-Stop (TaS) framework, using a cutting-set method to solve a semi-infinite optimization problem.
result The proposed algorithm achieves sample-efficient identification with a high-probability correctness guarantee and asymptotic optimality.
A new method removes biases in data integration by using surrogate control outcomes.
problem Data integration methods can be biased due to data-dependent processes.
method Post-integrated inference method using surrogate control outcomes to account for latent heterogeneity.
result The method provides consistent and efficient estimators under minimal assumptions and potential misspecifications.
Method estimates CATE using RCT data to handle hidden confounders.
problem Estimating CATE in the presence of hidden confounders.
method Pseudo-confounder generator and CATE model alignment.
result Method reduces bias in CATE estimation.
We propose a novel approach for inferring the individualized causal effects of a treatment (intervention) from observational data. Our approach conceptualizes causal inference as a multitask learning problem; we model a subject's potential outcomes using a deep multitask network with a set of shared layers among the fa…
In the absence of unobserved confounders, matching and weighting methods are widely used to estimate causal quantities including the Average Treatment Effect on the Treated (ATT). Unfortunately, these methods do not necessarily achieve their goal of making the multivariate distribution of covariates for the control gro…
Wasserstein Policy Learning for Distributional Outcomes
problem Offline policy learning with distribution-valued outcomes
method Establishing statistical guarantees for policy learning framework
result Proven leading dependence on N and N-dim(Π) for finite-sample regret
Estimates personalized policies robust to shifts in target populations.
problem Estimating policies that perform well in diverse target populations.
method Develops methods for estimating robust policies considering shifts in outcomes and characteristics.
result Welfare-maximizing policies are robust to certain shifts in potential outcomes.
A new meta-learner improves prediction of individualized outcomes in sequential decisions.
problem Predicting individualized outcomes over long horizons in sequential decision-making.
method Developed a novel meta-learner called DRQ-learner with theoretical guarantees of orthogonality and quasi-oracle efficiency.
result DRQ-learner achieves quasi-oracle efficiency, doubly robustness, and Neyman-orthogonality.
Bounds and sensitivity analysis for causal effects with MNAR confounders.
problem Estimating causal effects with missing outcome data.
method Assumption-free bounds and sensitivity analysis for outcome-independent MNAR.
result Valid bounds and sensitivity analysis methods for causal effect estimation.
Optimal treatment regimes (OTR) are individualised treatment assignment strategies that identify a medical treatment as optimal given all background information available on the individual. We discuss Bayes optimal treatment regimes estimated using a loss function defined on the bivariate distribution of dichotomous po…
Proposes a deep learning framework for estimating counterfactual outcomes.
problem Challenges in estimating individual outcomes under different treatments.
method Deep variational Bayesian framework integrating factual and similar subjects' outcomes.
result Rigorously integrates individual features and similar subjects' responses for counterfactual outcomes.
Framework improves CATE estimation by aligning active learning with causal objectives.
problem High cost of outcome measurements limits CATE estimation.
method Causal-EPIG framework, targeting unobservable causal quantities.
result Strategies outperform standard baselines, revealing context-dependent optimal approaches.
Synthetic Combinations learns unit-specific causal outcomes for combinatorial interventions.
problem Estimating unit-specific causal outcomes for all combinations of p interventions in a heterogeneous setting. method Latent factor model with Fourier expansion sparsity, imposing structure across units and interventions.
result Synthetic Combinations provides consistent estimation with poly(r) * (N + s^2p) observations, outperforming previous methods.
Treatment effects can be estimated from observational data as the difference in potential outcomes. In this paper, we address the challenge of estimating the potential outcome when treatment-dose levels can vary continuously over time. Further, the outcome variable may not be measured at a regular frequency. Our propos…
The volume of stroke lesion is the gold standard for predicting the clinical outcome of stroke patients. However, the presence of stroke lesion may cause neural disruptions to other brain regions, and these potentially damaged regions may affect the clinical outcome of stroke patients. In this paper, we introduce the t…
Discusses handling intercurrent events in clinical trials with time-to-event outcomes.
problem Handling intercurrent events in clinical trials with time-to-event outcomes.
method Defines estimands and six ICE handling strategies, including new competing-risk strategy.
result Novel methods for handling intercurrent events in clinical trials with time-to-event outcomes.
The paper explores methods to better estimate treatment effects by leveraging shared structure in potential outcomes.
problem Estimating treatment effects when outcomes may vary widely and existing methods often assume heterogeneity.
method Investigates and compares three learning strategies: regularization, reparametrization, and a multi-task architecture.
result All three approaches improve upon existing baselines, providing insights into their relative strengths.
This paper identifies and bounds ICE central moments using PO marginal central moments.
problem Identifying and characterizing treatment effect heterogeneity.
method Using only marginal central moments of potential outcomes, the paper identifies and bounds central moments of individual causal effects.
result Identification and bounding of central moments of ICE using marginal moments of POs.
A new method models continuous-time counterfactual outcomes using neural controlled differential equations.
problem Estimating personalized healthcare outcomes over irregularly sampled data.
method Interpreting data as samples from a continuous-time process, modeling latent trajectory using controlled differential equations, and using adversarial training for time-dependent confounding.
result TE-CDE consistently outperforms existing approaches in irregularly sampled scenarios.
Study uses surrogate data to improve treatment effect estimation with scarce outcome data.
problem Limited outcome data hinders estimating treatment effects.
method Uses abundant surrogate data to estimate treatment effects without stringent assumptions.
result Improves precision of treatment effect estimation.
Dynamic treatment effects estimated over time using covariate balancing.
problem Estimating treatment effects in panel data with dynamic treatments.
method Dynamic covariate balancing with potential local projections.
result Established inferential guarantees for the proposed method.
The study uses transfer learning to compare surgical outcomes across racial/ethnic subgroups.
problem Difficulty in comparing surgical outcomes due to racial/ethnic and geographic differences.
method Causal inference framework and transfer learning to incorporate data from multiple populations.
result Racial and ethnic differences in surgical outcomes are found, with non-Hispanic Black patients experiencing wide variability.
New method minimizes decision errors in large treatment spaces.
problem Improving decision-making in large treatment spaces with biased observational data.
method Loss minimizes classification error of actions in large action space.
result Proves improved decision-making performance in large combinatorial action spaces.
In this paper, we consider the problem of fair statistical inference involving outcome variables. Examples include classification and regression problems, and estimating treatment effects in randomized trials or observational data. The issue of fairness arises in such problems where some covariates or treatments are "s…
New method corrects ML for informative sampling in time-series treatment outcomes.
problem Informative sampling in irregularly observed data hinders accurate treatment outcome forecasting.
method Formalized as covariate shift, proposed inverse intensity-weighting framework, TESAR-CDE.
result TESAR-CDE effectively learns treatment outcomes under informative sampling.
Enhances conformal prediction for better uncertainty estimates in armed conflict fatalities.
problem Lack of individual-level uncertainty estimates in existing forecasting models.
method Introduces bin-conditional conformal prediction (BCCP) to improve coverage rates across subsets of the outcome variable.
result Demonstrates improved local coverage and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates across various ranges of fatalities.
Estimates counterfactual outcomes linking observed and unobserved data.
problem Estimating expected counterfactual outcomes for individuals.
method Introduces retrospective counterfactual estimators and prediction intervals linking observed and unobserved outcomes.
result Retrospective counterfactual estimators and prediction intervals asymptotically satisfy valid coverage under standard causal assumptions.
New copula-based models for binary outcomes capture complex interactions.
problem Complex interaction effects in binary outcome models.
method Additive models with copula-based components, no discretization required.
result Better or comparable predictive performance compared to other methods.
Study introduces a new method to estimate causal mediation with multiple mediators.
problem Estimating causal effects with multiple mediators and confounders.
method Simulates potential outcomes using parametric and nonparametric models.
result General approach to estimating various causal mediation quantities.
New framework for estimating treatment effects in observational studies.
problem Estimating average treatment effects in the presence of unobserved confounders.
method Distributionally robust optimization, sensitivity models.
result Sharp bounds on average treatment effects under distributional assumptions.
This paper significantly improves on, and finishes to validate, an approach proposed in previous research in which safety outcomes were predicted from attributes with machine learning. Like in the original study, we use Natural Language Processing (NLP) to extract fundamental attributes from raw incident reports and ma…
Estimates and tests treatment effects on entire outcome distributions.
problem Treatment effects on entire outcome distributions, not just averages.
method Proposes a novel estimand and doubly robust estimator, develops a test.
result First test with provably valid type 1 error guarantees in this setting.
New method estimates causal effects in complex spaces using topological structures.
problem Challenges in estimating causal effects in non-Euclidean spaces.
method Developed a topological causal inference framework using power-weighted silhouette functions of persistence diagrams.
result Successfully quantifies topological treatment effects across various complex outcomes.
The Prescriptive Canvas improves business outcomes by directly prescribing actions based on predictions.
problem Sub-optimal performance in business projects due to a two-step approach of prediction and decision-making.
method The Prescriptive Canvas methodology for framing and communicating actions directly based on predictions.
result Improves framing and communication across stakeholders for successful business impact.
MLHO predicts COVID-19 adverse outcomes using past medical records.
problem Predicting adverse outcomes after COVID-19 infection.
method Iterative feature and algorithm selection, sequential representation mining.
result Mean AUC ROC of 0.91 for mortality prediction.
Machine learning algorithms typically rely on optimization subroutines and are well-known to provide very effective outcomes for many types of problems. Here, we flip the reliance and ask the reverse question: can machine learning algorithms lead to more effective outcomes for optimization problems? Our goal is to trai…