A modified Black-Litterman model using intuitionistic fuzzy returns.
problem Quantifying expert views under uncertainty.
method Intuitionistic fuzzy numbers to represent expert views, proving posterior return as an intuitionistic fuzzy probabilistic set.
result Existence and properties of the posterior return in the modified model.
The paper models financial returns data with measurement error.
problem Modeling measurement error in financial returns data.
method Develops a stochastic model using a Lévy process and approximates the joint transition density via a stick-breaking representation. Implements MCMC and multilevel MCMC algorithms.
result Provides an approximation and sampling methods for Bayesian parameter estimation of the model.
Bayesian method improves portfolio selection under uncertain parameters.
problem Optimal portfolio choice with unknown asset return parameters.
method Bayesian posterior predictive distribution for optimization.
result Bayesian approach yields better portfolio predictions and returns.
Develops a Bayesian framework for portfolio choice with a new posterior distribution.
problem Estimation risk in parametric portfolio policies.
method Generalized Bayesian framework with Gibbs posterior, utility maximization, and KNEEDLE algorithm.
result Optimal scaling parameter λ λ λ controls the balance between prior and data. RVRAE combines deep learning and dynamic factor models for better stock returns prediction.
problem Improving stock returns prediction in volatile markets.
method Combines dynamic factor modeling with variational recurrent autoencoder (VRAE). Uses prior-posterior learning for optimal factor model.
result RVRAE outperforms traditional methods in predicting stock returns and estimating variances.
The study examines how posterior drift affects forecasting accuracy in overparametrized models, particularly in financial markets.
problem Impact of posterior drift on out-of-sample forecasting accuracy in overparametrized models.
method Investigation of posterior drift and its effect on model performance in financial markets.
result Overparametrized models can be sensitive to sub-periods and bandwidth parameters, leading to inconsistent returns.
Bayesian inference for inverse problems using mean-shift interacting particles
problem Bayesian inference for inverse problems
method Amortized mean-shift interacting particles
result Improves accuracy of Bayesian inference by reducing the number of samples needed
Runge-Kutta methods are the classic family of solvers for ordinary differential equations (ODEs), and the basis for the state of the art. Like most numerical methods, they return point estimates. We construct a family of probabilistic numerical methods that instead return a Gauss-Markov process defining a probability d…
Guaranteed bounds for posterior inference in probabilistic programs.
problem Approximating the posterior distribution of probabilistic programs with provable correctness.
method Interval-based trace semantics, soundness and completeness proofs, weight-aware interval type system.
result Guaranteed bounds on the posterior distribution of probabilistic programs are computed and proven to be correct.
Bayesian imputation optimizes bias-variance trade-off in time-series data.
problem Look-ahead bias in imputation of missing time-series data.
method Bayesian consensus posterior that fuses multiple posteriors to optimize bias and variance trade-off.
result Benefit of imputation for portfolio allocation with missing returns demonstrated.
Bayesian approach for constructing and rebalancing sparse index-tracking portfolios.
problem Sparse tracking of a reference index with uncertainty quantification.
method Sparse linear regression with Laplace prior, empirical-Bayes calibration, Langevin-type MCMC, threshold-based rules.
result Posterior uncertainty on tracking error, portfolio composition, and rebalancing moves.
We derive asset pricing formula for markets with incomplete information and subjective views.
problem Asset pricing in markets with informational imperfections and subjective investor beliefs.
method Closed-form market equilibrium formula based on Merton's model, non-linear system of equations, conditional posterior distribution.
result Derivation of market reference model for excess returns under random shadow-costs.
VPR improves posterior uncertainty quantification by combining VI and predictive resampling.
problem Inaccurate posterior sampling with MCMC due to computational constraints.
method Variational predictive resampling (VPR) that uses VI's predictive strength and imputes future observations.
result VPR converges to the exact Bayesian posterior in a Gaussian location model and improves uncertainty quantification.
Deep learning approximates Bayesian posteriors for gravitational-wave data.
problem Efficiently estimating posterior probabilities for gravitational-wave signals.
method Train a neural network to approximate the posterior distribution from signal + noise data.
result The neural network produces a parametrized approximation of the posterior distribution.
GATSBI uses GANs for SBI, improving posterior estimation in high dimensions.
problem Statistical inference on stochastic models without likelihoods.
method Adversarial approach to variational objective, amortized inference, implicit priors.
result GATSBI returns well-calibrated posterior estimates in high dimensions.
Proposes a new model for estimating financial volatility with jumps.
problem Estimating volatility from financial time series with jumps.
method Gibbs Sampler with exact posterior distributions.
result Model captures speculative movements and propagates jumps in volatility.
PSRL extension for continuing environments reduces regret.
problem Formalizing and analyzing resampling approach for reinforcement learning.
method Continuing PSRL maintains a model of the environment and replaces it with samples from the posterior distribution.
result Established an i l d e O ( τ S A T ) ilde{O}(τS \sqrt{A T}) i l d e O ( τ S A T ) bound on Bayesian regret. Blade uses diffusion priors to accurately and calibratedly infer complex systems.
problem Derivative-free Bayesian inversion for high-dimensional, nonlinear problems with costly forward models.
method Blade employs an ensemble of interacting particles and diffusion models as priors, querying forward models only through evaluations.
result Blade produces well-calibrated posterior samples that existing methods cannot, improving with more iterations and particles.
Adversarial robustness of amortized Bayesian inference is studied, showing it can be improved.
problem Adversarial robustness of amortized Bayesian inference.
method Simulation-based estimation, regularization scheme based on Fisher information.
result Adversarial robustness can be improved with a regularization scheme.
Develops a model to forecast quantile-function-valued daily returns.
problem Summarizing and forecasting the distributional characteristics of intra-daily returns.
method Dynamic quantile function (DQF) model using Bayesian inference and MCMC algorithm.
result The DQF model outperforms other models in forecasting VaR of intra-daily returns.
MixupMP improves uncertainty quantification in neural networks using data augmentation.
problem Uncertainty quantification in deep learning models.
method MixupMP constructs a more realistic predictive distribution using data augmentation techniques.
result MixupMP achieves superior predictive performance and uncertainty quantification on various image classification datasets.
Unified framework combines views and optimization for better portfolio management.
problem Optimizing portfolio weights with dynamic adjustment based on volatility.
method Dynamic sliding window adjusting horizon, factor estimates, BL posterior returns, and weights over time.
result Outperforms dynamic mean-variance optimization without BL views, providing stronger downside risk control.
The paper improves asset allocation using a skew-normal distribution in the Black-Litterman model.
problem Improving asset allocation under skewed return distributions.
method Using the Black-Litterman model with hidden truncation skew-normal distribution and Simaan's three-moment risk model.
result Optimal portfolios have less risk and higher skewness compared to classical BL model.
Extends GP regression to complex Helmholtz problems, improving wavefield inference in brain elastography.
problem Infer complex Helmholtz wavefields from sparse, noisy data.
method Operator-informed Gaussian processes, realifying complex operator into real blocks, using PDE residuals and boundary traces.
result Competitive with finite-difference and neural-network methods, reconstructs brain shear curl field with high correlation.
Private Generative Bootstrap protects privacy in statistical reporting.
problem Protecting privacy in statistical reporting of individual data.
method Bayesian likelihood-free framework with blocking strategy for differential privacy.
result Private Generative Bayesian Bootstrap (PGBB) provides competitive uncertainty quantification.
We propose a Bayesian non-parametric approach for modeling the distribution of multiple returns. In particular, we use an asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation (ADCC) model to estimate the time-varying correlations of financial returns where the individual volatilities are driven by GJR-GARCH models. The ADCC-GJR-…
Dynamic clustering of time series based on volatility shifts.
problem Clustering time series with volatility changes at unknown points.
method Statistical model with change-points, using probability metric between posterior distributions.
result Series grouped if recent volatility shifts were coincident or closely timed.
Bayesian model predicts stock jumps from daily returns data.
problem Disentangling volatility and jumps in daily stock returns.
method Bayesian framework for stochastic volatility with Poisson jumps, extended to large panels using dynamic factor models.
result Joint modelling of jumps improves predictive ability of stochastic volatility models.
Paper proposes MU+BDs score for Bayesian network structure learning.
problem Small sample sizes and sparse data cause issues with BDeu score.
method Proposes MU+BDs score with marginal uniform graph prior.
result MU+BDs score is more accurate and competitive than U+BDeu.
Unified framework for optimizing portfolios with distributions over weights, returns, and parameters.
problem Traditional portfolio optimization treats expected returns, covariances, and allocations as fixed. Modern practice replaces at least one with a distribution.
method Unified framework using Gamma_theta(dw,dr) coupling to organize Bayesian, robust, chance-constrained, stochastic-allocation, and distributional reinforcement-learning methods.
result Synthetic and structural contributions, including a portfolio specialization of Wasserstein-CVaR duality and a static no-randomization theorem.
Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models have long been considered as one of the most successful families of approaches for volatility modeling in financial return series. In this paper, we propose an alternative approach based on methodologies widely used in the field of statistical mac…
Paper extends Kalman-EM algorithm to handle jumps in high-frequency data.
problem Estimating covariance matrix from high-frequency data with jumps.
method Sparse Kalman filtering approaches to handle jumps in log-normal prices.
result Improved covariance estimation with Gibbs sampling and spike and slab models.
Paper introduces a new Bayesian score for discrete networks.
problem Learning the structure of discrete Bayesian networks.
method Empirical Bayes approach with MU+BDs scoring.
result MU+BDs score outperforms U+BDeu in structure learning and prediction.
Bayesian method predicts asset returns for better portfolio optimization.
problem Uncertainty in financial markets makes traditional portfolio optimization methods unreliable.
method Bayesian predictive synthesis (BPS) combined with dynamic linear models.
result Predicted distribution information improves portfolio performance.
Two approaches integrate qualitative views into portfolio optimization, showing aggregation methods outperform robust optimization.
problem Incorporating qualitative views into portfolio optimization models.
method Robust optimization and order aggregation methods.
result Aggregation methods outperform robust optimization in portfolio performance analysis.
The paper uses Gaussian variational approximation for high-dimensional state space models.
problem High-dimensional state space models with complex covariance structures.
method Gaussian variational approximation with dynamic factor model for reduced covariance structure.
result The approach provides a reduced and conditional independence structure for high-dimensional state vectors.
New compression methods handle biased input sequences for more accurate posterior summaries.
problem Handling biased input sequences for accurate posterior summaries.
method Stein kernel thinning, low-rank SKT, Stein recombination, Stein Cholesky.
result Achieves accurate posterior summaries with biased input sequences.
A robust loss for anomaly mitigation and unsupervised contamination classification
problem Detecting and mitigating contamination in supervised and unsupervised settings
method Neural Bayesian Anomaly Mitigation (NBAM)
result Recovering the structure of contamination and identifying label-flip pairs
Pathfinder uses quasi-Newton optimization for variational inference.
problem Approximating complex posterior distributions efficiently.
method Pathfinder combines quasi-Newton optimization with variational methods to approximate log densities.
result Pathfinder produces draws with lower KL divergence than ADVI and comparable to HMC, requiring fewer evaluations.
This manuscript proposes a probabilistic framework for algorithms that iteratively solve unconstrained linear problems B x = b Bx = b B x = b with positive definite B B B for x x x . The goal is to replace the point estimates returned by existing methods with a Gaussian posterior belief over the elements of the inverse of B B B , which can …
Temporal VAE improves VaR estimation for financial portfolios.
problem Estimating VaR for large asset portfolios in finance.
method Temporal VAE with annealing regularization to avoid posterior collapse.
result Temporal VAE outperforms classical VaR estimation methods on real data.
Enhances multi-modular models by directing information flow between components.
problem Improving predictive performance in multi-modular models with misspecification.
method Introduces Semi-Modular Inference (SMI) with an influence parameter to control information flow between modules.
result SMI allows for tunable and directed information flow, improving prediction in some settings.
Bayesian VI copula models capture asymmetric intraday equity dependence.
problem Modeling asymmetric and extreme tail dependence in financial data.
method Bayesian variational inference for skew-t copula models in high dimensions.
result The copula captures substantial heterogeneity in asymmetric dependence over equity pairs and time.
Bayesian method improves portfolio selection by updating expected returns.
problem Optimizing portfolio selection with unknown expected returns.
method Bayesian filtering and dynamic programming for learning posterior distribution.
result Explicit optimal strategy computed for Gaussian prior, quantifying learning impact.
BDQN uses Bayesian deep Q-networks for efficient exploration in high-dimensional RL.
problem Efficient exploration in high-dimensional reinforcement learning environments.
method Bayesian deep Q-networks with Thompson sampling for efficient exploration and exploitation.
result BDQN achieves higher returns faster than DDQN through efficient exploration and exploitation.
New mixture models for clustering and density estimation of unknown distributions.
problem Clustering and density estimation of data with unknown distributions.
method Two fitting methods: EM algorithm and Bayesian non-parametric method using Gibbs sampler.
result Effective clustering and density estimation of data with unknown distributions.
Particle Metropolis-Hastings enables Bayesian parameter inference in general nonlinear state space models (SSMs). However, in many implementations a random walk proposal is used and this can result in poor mixing if not tuned correctly using tedious pilot runs. Therefore, we consider a new proposal inspired by quasi-Ne…
Bayesian framework uses AI-generated data to improve parameter estimation.
problem Parameter estimation in models with unknown or unspecified likelihood.
method Exponentially tilted empirical likelihood with Dirichlet process posterior.
result AI-generated data can provide useful regularization for parameter estimation.