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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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74148222296 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for posterior exploration

This paper explores Bayesian Neural Network posteriors, uncovering symmetries and their impact.

problem Understanding the complex posterior distribution of deep Bayesian Neural Networks.
method Investigates optimal approaches for approximating posteriors, analyzes modes, and explores visualizations.
result Uncovered weight-space symmetries and their impact on the posterior, particularly scaling symmetries.

Efficient Reinforcement Learning usually takes advantage of demonstration or good exploration strategy. By applying posterior sampling in model-free RL under the hypothesis of GP, we propose Gaussian Process Posterior Sampling Reinforcement Learning(GPPSTD) algorithm in continuous state space, giving theoretical justif…

2018-12-11abs ↗pdf ↗

Enhanced Gaussian process models accelerate optimization and posterior approximation.

problem Improving the accuracy and speed of Gaussian process models for optimization and inference.
method Introduces a random exploration step to classical GP-UCB algorithms, facilitating faster convergence.
result New algorithms achieve nearly optimal convergence rates and provide bounds for Hellinger distance.

S-VBMC improves VBMC's exploration of complex posterior distributions.

problem Efficient inference for computationally expensive models with complex posterior distributions.
method Stacking multiple independent VBMC runs to create a robust global posterior approximation.
result Significant improvements in posterior approximation quality across various applications.

HyperAgent improves RL exploration in large-scale problems.

problem Efficient exploration in large-scale reinforcement learning problems.
method Hypermodel framework for incremental posterior approximation without conjugacy.
result HyperAgent achieves logarithmic per-step computational complexity and sublinear regret.

Study improves posterior inference in neural processes with limited data.

problem Improving posterior predictive inference in probabilistic models with scarce conditioning data.
method Examined effects of pooling operators and variational families on posterior quality in neural processes.
result Novel neural process architectures lead to superior posterior predictive samples in image completion/in-painting tasks.

Recent advances in stochastic gradient techniques have made it possible to estimate posterior distributions from large datasets via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). However, when the target posterior is multimodal, mixing performance is often poor. This results in inadequate exploration of the posterior distribution. A…

2017-06-05abs ↗pdf ↗

The cold posterior effect is explored through PAC-Bayes bounds for small sample sizes.

problem The cold posterior effect in approximate Bayesian inference for small datasets.
method Investigation through PAC-Bayes generalization bounds, focusing on temperature parameter λ.
result The temperature parameter λ in PAC-Bayes bounds captures the cold posterior effect.

This work introduces a method for visualizing high-dimensional posteriors using hierarchical tree-valued predictions.

problem Visualizing high-dimensional posterior distributions for complex problems like image restoration.
method A neural network predicts a tree-valued hierarchical summarization of the posterior distribution in a single forward pass.
result The method efficiently summarizes and visualizes posteriors, achieving comparable results to hierarchical clustering but at a much faster speed.

This technical note presents a new approach to carrying out the kind of exploration achieved by Thompson sampling, but without explicitly maintaining or sampling from posterior distributions. The approach is based on a bootstrap technique that uses a combination of observed and artificially generated data. The latter s…

2015-07-01abs ↗pdf ↗

Graph Posterior Network improves uncertainty estimation for node classification in interdependent graphs.

problem Uncertainty quantification for non-independent node-level predictions in graphs.
method Derives axioms for expected predictive uncertainty, proposes Graph Posterior Network (GPN) which performs Bayesian posterior updates.
result GPN outperforms existing approaches for uncertainty estimation in semi-supervised node classification.

Efficient exploration remains a challenging problem in reinforcement learning, especially for those tasks where rewards from environments are sparse. A commonly used approach for exploring such environments is to introduce some "intrinsic" reward. In this work, we focus on model uncertainty estimation as an intrinsic r…

2019-11-19abs ↗pdf ↗

This work explores how overparametrization and priors affect Bayesian neural network posteriors.

problem Symmetries, non-identifiabilities, and weight-space priors fragment and inflate BNN posteriors.
method We study the interplay between overparametrization and priors in BNN posteriors, deriving key phenomena and validating through experiments.
result Overparametrization induces structured, prior-aligned weight posterior distributions.

FP-BMA improves generalization by encouraging flat posteriors in Bayesian Model Averaging.

problem Lack of flat posterior in approximate Bayesian inference methods hinders effective Bayesian Model Averaging.
method Proposes Flat Posterior-aware Bayesian Model Averaging (FP-BMA) and Flat Posterior-aware Bayesian Transfer Learning schemes.
result FP-BMA successfully captures flat posteriors, improving generalization performance.

New method quantifies uncertainty in reinforcement learning models.

problem Quantifying uncertainty over expected cumulative rewards in reinforcement learning.
method Proposes a new uncertainty Bellman equation to more accurately estimate value function variance.
result Our method converges to the true posterior variance over values and improves sample-efficiency.

Enhances SMC² with Hessian info for more efficient posterior approximation.

problem Improving accuracy and efficiency in Bayesian inference.
method Integrates second-order information (Hessian) into SMC²'s proposal distribution.
result Second-order proposals lead to more accurate posterior approximations and better step-size selection.

Study improves fractional posterior for 1-bit matrix completion.

problem Estimating a binary matrix from observed entries.
method Fractional posterior approach with low-rank factorization and spectral scaled Student priors.
result Concentration results for fractional posterior, demonstrating effectiveness in matrix recovery.

Transformer learns to infer partial MDPs for efficient in-context adaptation and exploration.

problem Efficiently adapt and explore in-context without gradient-based updates.
method Uses a transformer to learn inference from training tasks, considering hypothesis space of partial models.
result Adaptation speed and exploration-exploitation balance approach those of an exact posterior sampling oracle.

Thompson sampling is an efficient algorithm for sequential decision making, which exploits the posterior uncertainty to address the exploration-exploitation dilemma. There has been significant recent interest in integrating Bayesian neural networks into Thompson sampling. Most of these methods rely on global variable u…

2019-10-30abs ↗pdf ↗

Bayesian neural networks struggle with accuracy and uncertainty quantification in complex models.

problem Challenges in achieving high predictive performance and reliable uncertainty estimates in Bayesian neural networks.
method Investigates computational costs, accuracy, and uncertainty quantification in Bayesian neural networks with different inference techniques.
result Variational inference provides better uncertainty quantification than Markov chain Monte Carlo, and stacking/ensembling variational approximations can achieve similar accuracy at reduced cost.

Most provably-efficient learning algorithms introduce optimism about poorly-understood states and actions to encourage exploration. We study an alternative approach for efficient exploration, posterior sampling for reinforcement learning (PSRL). This algorithm proceeds in repeated episodes of known duration. At the sta…

2013-06-04abs ↗pdf ↗

Bayesian neural networks explore rare fluctuations for better feature learning.

problem Understanding rare but dominant fluctuations in Bayesian neural networks.
method Large-deviation theory and joint optimization over predictors and internal kernels.
result Posterior rate function optimization reveals data-dependent kernel selection.

We study reinforcement learning (RL) in high dimensional episodic Markov decision processes (MDP). We consider value-based RL when the optimal Q-value is a linear function of d-dimensional state-action feature representation. For instance, in deep-Q networks (DQN), the Q-value is a linear function of the feature repres…

2018-02-13abs ↗pdf ↗

We study two randomized algorithms for generalized linear bandits. The first, GLM-TSL, samples a generalized linear model (GLM) from the Laplace approximation to the posterior distribution. The second, GLM-FPL, fits a GLM to a randomly perturbed history of past rewards. We analyze both algorithms and derive $\tilde{O}(…

2019-06-21abs ↗pdf ↗

We introduce inference trees (ITs), a new class of inference methods that build on ideas from Monte Carlo tree search to perform adaptive sampling in a manner that balances exploration with exploitation, ensures consistency, and alleviates pathologies in existing adaptive methods. ITs adaptively sample from hierarchica…

2018-06-25abs ↗pdf ↗

Improves Bayesian inference for deep models to better approximate posterior distributions.

problem Bayesian deep learning struggles with intractable posterior distributions, leading to overconfident predictions.
method Uses variational inference to approximate posterior distributions, proposing a unified view and improving inference for deep Gaussian processes.
result Variational inference can provide a lower bound for marginal likelihood, facilitating model selection and optimization.

Efficiently samples posterior distributions using Langevin dynamics.

problem Challenges in generating diverse posterior samples in high-dimensional spaces.
method Simulates Langevin dynamics in the noise space of a pre-trained generative model.
result Noise-space Langevin dynamics approximates the posterior without restarting the full sampling chain.

New approach uses autoregressive models to explore and quantify uncertainty in decision-making.

problem Quantifying and exploring uncertainty in online decision-making.
method Reformulates uncertainty as missing future outcomes, training autoregressive models for next-outcome prediction.
result Establishes a reduction from online learning to offline next-outcome prediction, controlling Bayesian regret by sequence prediction loss.

Randomized exploration in linear bandits achieves optimal regret bounds.

problem Optimizing exploration in high-dimensional linear bandit problems.
method Analysis of Thompson sampling without forced optimism.
result Randomized exploration algorithms achieve an O(dnlog(n))O(d\sqrt{n} \log(n)) regret bound in smooth, strongly convex action spaces.

A new method uses MCMC-assisted normalizing flows for efficient Bayesian sampling.

problem Sampling from complex posterior distributions in Bayesian statistics.
method Training a normalizing flow using direct KL divergence and MCMC assistance.
result The method improves sampling efficiency for complicated posterior distributions.

Kolmogorov-Arnold network improves GW catalog posterior construction.

problem Efficiently constructing posterior distributions for GW catalogs.
method Using the Kolmogorov-Arnold network to create lightweight neural density estimators.
result Kolmogorov-Arnold network achieves superior interpretability and accuracy in posterior construction.

Accelerates pulsar light curve inference with learned representations and optimization.

problem Computational expense of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for posterior inference.
method Combining U-Net latent representations with local simulator-guided optimization.
result 120x reduction in inference time (24 hours to 12 minutes) with accuracy preserved.

In several realistic situations, an interactive learning agent can practice and refine its strategy before going on to be evaluated. For instance, consider a student preparing for a series of tests. She would typically take a few practice tests to know which areas she needs to improve upon. Based of the scores she obta…

2017-06-07abs ↗pdf ↗