Estimates high-dimensional posterior densities by marginal distributions and neural networks.
problem High-dimensional probability density estimation for inference is difficult.
method Direct estimation of lower-dimensional marginal distributions, using Moment Networks for fast computation of moments.
result Demonstrates estimation of gravitational wave time series and applications in cosmology.
Bayesian inference for Levy density with Gibbs posterior in discrete sampling.
problem Inference on Levy density for financial models with jumps.
method Gibbs posterior framework using a loss function for intractable likelihood.
result Gibbs posterior achieves nearly optimal rate of convergence under certain conditions.
New framework quantifies uncertainty in flexible density-based clustering.
problem Uncertainty quantification in clustering with non-parametric density estimation.
method Martingale posterior distributions and density-based clustering.
result Efficient GPU-compatible inference on clustering structures with uncertainty.
Posterior Matching enables VAEs to model arbitrary conditional densities.
problem Modeling conditional dependencies in unsupervised learning.
method Posterior Matching framework for arbitrary conditioning.
result Posterior Matching enables VAEs to perform arbitrary conditioning without modification.
SDG uses optimal control to improve classifier guidance in low-density regions.
problem Inefficient guidance in low-density regions of posterior distributions.
method Integrates stochastic optimal control with Stein variational inference to compute the steepest descent direction.
result SDG improves guidance in low-density regions, outperforming standard methods.
New method improves sample-efficiency in neural posterior estimation using simulator gradients.
problem High-fidelity posterior estimation with complex physical simulations is time-consuming.
method Neural Posterior Estimation (NPE) with differentiable simulators and gradient information.
result Improves sample-efficiency in posterior density estimation.
Bayesian DDR models complex multivariate distributions.
problem Modeling relationships between multivariate distributions with differing dimensions.
method Generalized Bayesian framework using sliced Wasserstein distance and MALA for inference.
result Posterior consistency and robust fits demonstrated in simulations and real data.
Bayesian model averaging under predictor redundancy
problem Reporting Bayesian model averaging posterior without changing the Bayesian target
method Using hard or soft regions of support space
result Region reports often give shorter and clearer summaries while preserving the main posterior information
Optimizes kernel density ratios for better predictions and information measures.
problem Improving accuracy of kernel density estimates for density ratios.
method Derives an optimal weight function using calculus of variations.
result Reduces bias in kernel density estimates, leading to improved prediction posteriors and information-theoretic measures.
The variational autoencoder (VAE) is a powerful generative model that can estimate the probability of a data point by using latent variables. In the VAE, the posterior of the latent variable given the data point is regularized by the prior of the latent variable using Kullback Leibler (KL) divergence. Although the stan…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms have become powerful tools for Bayesian inference. However, they do not scale well to large-data problems. Divide-and-conquer strategies, which split the data into batches and, for each batch, run independent MCMC algorithms targeting the corresponding subposterior, can spread…
Kolmogorov-Arnold network improves GW catalog posterior construction.
problem Efficiently constructing posterior distributions for GW catalogs.
method Using the Kolmogorov-Arnold network to create lightweight neural density estimators.
result Kolmogorov-Arnold network achieves superior interpretability and accuracy in posterior construction.
New method for density estimation without approximating posterior distributions.
problem Challenges in non-smooth data distributions for Bayesian density estimation.
method Autoregressive likelihood decomposition and Gaussian process prior in a quasi-Bayesian framework.
result Achieves state-of-the-art results in small-data regimes.
Estimates the ratio of posterior distributions of latent variables.
problem Comparing posterior distributions of latent variables inferred from observations.
method Parametric model approximation and estimation using observed and prior samples.
result Consistent and asymptotically normal estimation of posterior ratio parameters.
New algorithm samples neural network posteriors efficiently.
problem Challenges of sampling multimodal Bayesian posteriors for neural networks.
method Greedy Bayes method using log-concave coupling of posterior and auxiliary random variable.
result Log-concave coupling facilitates efficient sampling of neuron weights.
Improved predictive posterior density estimation through optimized importance sampling.
problem Low signal-to-noise ratio in posterior predictive densities.
method Optimized importance sampling using a test-time variational proxy.
result Significantly improved estimates of predictive posterior densities.
In this paper we propose a model with a Dirichlet process mixture of gamma densities in the bulk part below threshold and a generalized Pareto density in the tail for extreme value estimation. The proposed model is simple and flexible allowing us posterior density estimation and posterior inference for high quantiles. …
How can one perform Bayesian inference on stochastic simulators with intractable likelihoods? A recent approach is to learn the posterior from adaptively proposed simulations using neural network-based conditional density estimators. However, existing methods are limited to a narrow range of proposal distributions or r…
In this paper we investigate the geometry of the likelihood of the unknown parameters in a simple class of Bayesian directed graphs with hidden variables. This enables us, before any numerical algorithms are employed, to obtain certain insights in the nature of the unidentifiability inherent in such models, the way pos…
Post-process Bayesian inference speeds up posterior approximation.
problem Leveraging pre-existing model evaluations for quick posterior approximation.
method Variational Sparse Bayesian Quadrature (VSBQ) using sparse Gaussian process (GP) surrogate model.
result VSBQ builds high-quality posterior approximations from existing optimization traces.
Normalizing flow regression approximates posterior distributions without additional sampling.
problem Bayesian inference with computationally expensive likelihood evaluations.
method Normalizing flow regression (NFR) for offline inference.
result NFR yields a tractable posterior approximation through regression on existing log-density evaluations.
New method merges MCMC samples without distributional assumptions.
problem Efficiently merging MCMC samples from disjoint subsets.
method Diffusion generative modelling for density approximation.
result Outperforms existing methods on high-dimensional problems.
Bayesian approach for multivariate density regression of complex data.
problem Regression of multivariate density-valued responses on predictors.
method Bayesian inference using sliced Wasserstein barycenter and SW distance.
result Accurate fits and reliable predictions for complex data.
NQE uses quantile regression for fast SBI with cubic Hermite splines.
problem Efficient Bayesian inference for complex models with limited data.
method Neural Quantile Estimation (NQE) learns quantiles autoregressively and interpolates them using cubic Hermite splines.
result NQE achieves state-of-the-art performance on various benchmark problems.
A new method improves posterior approximation for complex distributions.
problem Difficulty in capturing multimodal and heavy-tailed posteriors with standard normalizing flows.
method StiCTAF: stick-breaking mixture base with component-wise tail adaptation.
result Improved tail recovery and better mode coverage compared to benchmarks.
New method improves ABC for Bayesian model comparison.
problem Comparing complex models with observed data.
method Approximate Bayesian Computation with posterior density estimation.
result Efficiently assigns high posterior probabilities to ground-truth models.
Paper formulates particle flow using variational inference and Fisher-Rao gradient flow.
problem Estimating posterior densities in probabilistic models.
method Variational formulation of particle flow, Fisher-Rao gradient flow, Gaussian and Gaussian mixture approximations.
result Gaussian and Gaussian mixture approximations of Fisher-Rao particle flow reduce to Exact Daum and Huang particle flow under linear Gaussian assumptions.
Many statistical models can be simulated forwards but have intractable likelihoods. Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods are used to infer properties of these models from data. Traditionally these methods approximate the posterior over parameters by conditioning on data being inside an ε-ball around the obs…
Deep learning speeds up gravitational wave analysis.
problem Computational challenge in analyzing gravitational wave data.
method Trained a neural-network to model posterior probability distributions over 15-dimensional system parameters.
result Generated accurate posterior samples at high speed.
Transfer learning has recently attracted significant research attention, as it simultaneously learns from different source domains, which have plenty of labeled data, and transfers the relevant knowledge to the target domain with limited labeled data to improve the prediction performance. We propose a Bayesian transfer…
Bayesian methods are appealing in their flexibility in modeling complex data and ability in capturing uncertainty in parameters. However, when Bayes' rule does not result in tractable closed-form, most approximate inference algorithms lack either scalability or rigorous guarantees. To tackle this challenge, we propose …
CIFs improve VI by providing flexible posteriors for complex topologies.
problem Complex posterior distributions in VI problems.
method Using CIFs as part of an auxiliary VI scheme, exploiting conditional independence.
result CIFs yield low-variance estimators of model evidence and improve VI results.
MD-CGAN models forecast time series with probabilistic posterior distributions.
problem Limited applications of GANs in time series forecasting, especially with probabilistic predictions.
method Mixture Density Conditional Generative Adversarial Model (MD-CGAN) using Gaussian mixture output.
result MD-CGAN outperforms benchmarks, especially in noisy time series.
EG-LF-MCMC infers posterior densities without likelihoods.
problem Posterior inference for models with intractable likelihoods.
method Two-phase approach: error recording and classification for MCMC.
result EG-LF-MCMC provides approximate posterior densities efficiently.
Variational Bayes (VB) is a recent approximate method for Bayesian inference. It has the merit of being a fast and scalable alternative to Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) but its approximation error is often unknown. In this paper, we derive the approximation error of VB in terms of mean, mode, variance, predictive den…
A new method samples from a target density without initial samples using Monte Carlo estimation of the score.
problem Sampling from a target density without initial samples.
method Monte Carlo estimation of the score using oracle access to the log likelihood.
result Samples can be produced from the target density without needing initial samples.
A new method for density estimation using nearest neighbor Dirichlet mixtures.
problem Slow and unstable Bayesian density estimation methods.
method Nearest neighbor grouping, local Bayesian parametric models, Dirichlet prior, Monte Carlo sampling.
result Effective density estimation with improved computational efficiency.
Study post-hoc Learning to Defer using density-ratio losses.
problem Optimizing decision-making between models and experts.
method Density-ratio losses for post-hoc L2D scorers, derived from class-probability estimation.
result The approach recovers known results and introduces new connections to expert comparison and anomaly detection.
Generative Bayesian Filtering improves inference in complex models without explicit density evaluations.
problem Performing posterior inference in complex nonlinear and non-Gaussian state-space models.
method Generative Bayesian Filtering (GBF) extends GBC to dynamic settings using deep neural networks for recursive posterior inference. Generative-Gibbs sampler bypasses density evaluations for parameter learning.
result GBF significantly outperforms likelihood-free approaches in accuracy and robustness for intractable state-space models.
Particle-based variational inference offers a flexible way of approximating complex posterior distributions with a set of particles. In this paper we introduce a new particle-based variational inference method based on the theory of semi-discrete optimal transport. Instead of minimizing the KL divergence between the po…
A new method selects optimal temperature for Bayesian Deep Learning.
problem Finding the optimal temperature for improving predictive performance in Bayesian Deep Learning.
method Data-driven approach to estimate temperature as a model parameter.
result Our method performs comparably to grid search but at a fraction of the cost.
Pathfinder uses quasi-Newton optimization for variational inference.
problem Approximating complex posterior distributions efficiently.
method Pathfinder combines quasi-Newton optimization with variational methods to approximate log densities.
result Pathfinder produces draws with lower KL divergence than ADVI and comparable to HMC, requiring fewer evaluations.
Bayesian approach learns nonparametric mixture components from heterogeneous data.
problem Realistic modeling of heterogeneous data populations with nonparametric mixture components.
method Bayesian nonparametric modeling using Dirichlet process mixture priors.
result Posterior contraction rates for component densities are nearly polynomial, improving over deconvolution methods.
We propose a new variational family for Bayesian neural networks. We decompose the variational posterior into two components, where the radial component captures the strength of each neuron in terms of its magnitude; while the directional component captures the statistical dependencies among the weight parameters. The …
In this paper, we study two aspects of the variational autoencoder (VAE): the prior distribution over the latent variables and its corresponding posterior. First, we decompose the learning of VAEs into layerwise density estimation, and argue that having a flexible prior is beneficial to both sample generation and infer…
Paper introduces RVNP to improve SBI in misspecified models.
problem Misspecification in simulation-based inference leads to unreliable posterior estimation.
method RVNP uses variational inference and error modeling to bridge the simulation-to-reality gap.
result RVNP can recover robust posterior inference without hyperparameters or priors.
Unified approach for selecting summary statistics in ABC.
problem Efficient inference from large datasets in likelihood-free methods.
method Characterizing and unifying three classes of summary statistics, minimizing expected posterior entropy.
result EPE-minimizing summaries lead to competitive posterior inference.
This work extends balancing to various simulation-based inference algorithms for more conservative posterior approximations.
problem Overconfident posterior approximations in simulation-based inference.
method Introduces a balanced version of neural posterior estimation and contrastive neural ratio estimation.
result Balanced versions tend to produce conservative posterior approximations on various benchmarks.