Bayesian PINNs learn elliptic PDEs with near-minimax posterior contraction rate.
problem Learning elliptic PDEs with noisy data and non-homogeneous boundary conditions.
method Bayesian approach with a Hölder space prior on neural network weights.
result Posterior contracts at near-minimax rate without prior knowledge of solution smoothness.
Bayesian neural networks achieve optimal posterior contraction rates in Besov spaces with intrinsic dimensionality.
problem High-dimensional structured estimation problems with unknown smoothness levels.
method Sparse Bayesian neural networks with either sparse or continuous shrinkage priors.
result Optimal posterior contraction rates are achieved, adapting to the unknown smoothness level of the true function.
Bayesian KANs achieve near-minimax posterior contraction rates in anisotropic Besov spaces.
problem Statistical foundation for Bayesian Kolmogorov-Arnold networks in anisotropic Besov spaces.
method Sparse Bayesian KANs with spike-and-slab priors, hyperprior on model size, and approximation complexity bounds.
result Posterior contraction rates depend on intrinsic anisotropic smoothness and effective dimension of the compositional structure.
Bayesian nonparametric models get better posterior estimates via SPDE methods.
problem Estimating posterior distributions in nonparametric Bayesian models.
method Extending diffusion methods to SPDEs on Hilbert spaces for posterior contraction and Laplace approximation.
result Derivation of posterior contraction rates and finite-sample Bernstein von Mises results.
Bayesian method with Gaussian process priors achieves optimal convergence rates for regression function and its derivatives.
problem Estimating the regression function and its derivatives in nonparametric regression.
method Bayesian approach with Gaussian process priors, focusing on convergence rates and plug-in property.
result Equivalence of convergence rates of posterior distributions and Bayes estimators for regression function and its derivatives.
Bayesian posterior contraction rates improve with decreasing tails
problem Bayesian posterior contraction in nonparametric settings
method Using p p p -exponential tails for contraction rates result Improvement in contraction rates with decreasing tails
The paper analyzes distributed Bayesian inference and its Frequentist guarantees.
problem Analyzing large decentralized datasets with distributed Bayesian inference.
method Establishes Frequentist properties for distributed (non-)Bayesian inference.
result Distributed Bayesian inference retains parametric efficiency and enhances robustness.
Bayesian framework for sphere regression using Gaussian fields.
problem Nonparametric regression on the sphere with Gaussian priors.
method Isotropic Gaussian field priors, harmonic structure, exact posterior distributions, optimal spectral truncation, posterior contraction rates.
result Sharp posterior contraction rates for Gaussian priors with polynomially decaying angular power spectra.
The paper analyzes contraction rates for GP regression approximations.
problem Computational infeasibility of exact GP posterior in large-scale applications.
method Lanczos and conjugate gradient approximations of the posterior mean.
result Minimax contraction rates for these approximations in large-scale applications.
New approach to quantify posterior concentration rates using Wasserstein dynamics.
problem Quantifying the speed of posterior distribution concentration in Bayesian statistics.
method Combining local Lipschitz-continuity with dynamic formulation of Wasserstein distance.
result Optimal posterior contraction rates in finite and infinite-dimensional models.
Bayesian methods estimate regression functions on submanifolds using graph Laplacian eigenbasis.
problem Estimating regression functions on unknown smooth submanifolds.
method Random geometric graph structure, Bayesian priors based on random basis expansion in graph Laplacian eigenbasis.
result Posterior contraction rates are minimax optimal for any positive smoothness index.
Bayesian nonparametric LABS model adapts to function smoothness in Besov spaces.
problem Estimating functions with unknown smoothness in Besov spaces.
method Lévy Adaptive B-spline (LABS) regression model with automatic smoothness adaptation.
result LABS posterior contracts around true function in Besov classes at nearly minimax-optimal rates.
New method uses fractional posteriors for semiparametric inference with improved uncertainty quantification.
problem Semiparametric inference with nonparametric priors and fractional posteriors.
method Established a general Bernstein--von Mises theorem for fractional posterior distributions, proposed shifted-and-rescaled credible sets.
result Fractional posterior credible sets provide reliable uncertainty quantification but have inflated size; shifted-and-rescaled set is an efficient confidence set.
The study optimizes Gaussian process approximations for finite-rank models.
problem Posterior behavior of finite-rank approximations differs from parent GP priors.
method Locally supported basis expansions with dependent Gaussian coefficients.
result Finite-rank expansions inherit the same posterior contraction rate as parent GP priors.
Bayesian approach learns nonparametric mixture components from heterogeneous data.
problem Realistic modeling of heterogeneous data populations with nonparametric mixture components.
method Bayesian nonparametric modeling using Dirichlet process mixture priors.
result Posterior contraction rates for component densities are nearly polynomial, improving over deconvolution methods.
Adaptive variational Bayes framework improves inference adaptively.
problem Lack of general and computationally tractable variational Bayes method for adaptive inference.
method Proposes a novel adaptive variational Bayes framework combining variational posteriors over individual models.
result Adaptive variational Bayes achieves optimal contraction rates adaptively under general conditions.
Gaussian process (GP) regression is a powerful interpolation technique due to its flexibility in capturing non-linearity. In this paper, we provide a general framework for understanding the frequentist coverage of point-wise and simultaneous Bayesian credible sets in GP regression. As an intermediate result, we develop…
Bayesian approach learns linear operators from noisy data.
problem Learning linear operators from noisy data in infinite-dimensional spaces.
method Bayesian approach with Gaussian priors.
result Establishes posterior contraction rates and generalization error guarantees.
By expressing prior distributions as general stochastic processes, nonparametric Bayesian methods provide a flexible way to incorporate prior knowledge and constrain the latent structure in statistical inference. The Indian buffet process (IBP) is such an example that can be used to define a prior distribution on infin…
This study examines Gaussian processes on Riemannian manifolds and proves contraction rates.
problem Comparing intrinsic vs. extrinsic Gaussian processes on Riemannian manifolds.
method Proves optimal contraction rates for intrinsic Matérn Gaussian processes on compact Riemannian manifolds.
result Intrinsic Gaussian processes on Riemannian manifolds achieve better performance than extrinsic ones.
Gaussian processes struggle with compositional functions, but deep Gaussian processes can outperform.
problem Gaussian process regression struggles with compositional functions.
method We study information-theoretic lower bounds for posterior contraction rates in Gaussian process regression for a continuous regression model.
result Posterior based on any mean-zero Gaussian process can only recover the truth at a rate strictly slower than the minimax rate for generalized additive functions.
The paper revisits and improves on a Bayesian relevance vector machine method for small sample sizes.
problem Statistical modeling with small sample sizes relative to the number of covariates.
method Introduces a new class of global-local priors and provides theoretical properties.
result Results on posterior consistency and contraction rates are provided.
Bayesian analysis shows unlabeled data improve graph-based semi-supervised learning.
problem Improving semi-supervised learning with limited labeled data.
method Bayesian nonparametric approach using unlabeled data for graph-based learning.
result Posterior contracts optimally around the truth with sufficient unlabeled data.
Bayesian SSR on graphs improves regression with noisy labels.
problem Estimating function values on graphs from noisy labeled data.
method Bayesian approach using graph Laplacian and Gaussian prior.
result Rates of contraction of posterior measure around ground truth.
Bayesian deep learning with heavy-tailed weights achieves near-optimal performance.
problem Deep neural networks with heavy-tailed weights achieve near-optimal performance in various contexts.
method Introduced a Bayesian deep learning prior based on heavy-tailed weights and ReLU activation, showing near-optimal minimax contraction rates.
result Posterior distribution achieves near-optimal minimax contraction rates, adaptive to smoothness and intrinsic dimension.
Improved MALA method for neural networks uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty quantification in Bayesian neural networks.
method Corrected Stochastic MALA (csMALA) with a simplified correction term.
result Improved surrogate posterior for quantifying uncertainties in neural networks.
Theoretical framework for M-posteriors connects Bayesian and frequentist statistics.
problem Connecting Bayesian and frequentist approaches in statistical inference.
method Developed a theoretical framework for M-posteriors, showing asymptotic normality and frequentist consistency.
result M-posteriors are robust and contract around M-estimators under mild conditions.
Bayesian models combine experts with a flexible gating mechanism for complex data.
problem Theoretical properties of Bayesian mixture-of-experts models with softmax gating remain unexplored.
method Investigated asymptotic behavior of posterior distribution for density estimation, parameter estimation, and model selection.
result Established posterior contraction rates for density estimation and parameter estimation, providing insights for practical model design.
Transformer pretraining yields strong EB performance without explicit adaptation.
problem Empirical Bayes problems with unknown test distributions.
method Indirect analysis of pretrained transformer's performance under universal priors.
result Near-optimal regret bound of O ~ ( 1 n ) \widetilde{O}(\frac{1}{n}) O ( n 1 ) for arbitrary test distributions. Efficiently identifies best policies in tabular MDPs with reduced computational cost.
problem Identifying the best policy in tabular MDPs with high computational cost.
method Combines posterior sampling with online learning to achieve asymptotic optimality.
result Achieves optimal sample complexity and posterior contraction rate with O ( S 2 A H ) O(S^2AH) O ( S 2 A H ) per episode. The paper improves Gaussian process regression by optimizing hyperparameters.
problem Hyperparameter tuning for Gaussian process regression models.
method Adaptive sparse variational approximations using variational Bayes.
result Minimax optimal rates of convergence for variational posterior.
Calibrated probabilistic solvers improve accuracy of ODE estimates.
problem Uncertainty in probabilistic ODE solutions is not well-calibrated for adaptive step sizes.
method Introduce and assess several calibration methods for probabilistic ODE solvers.
result Calibration methods interact efficiently with adaptive step-size selection, improving posteriors.
A recently-introduced class of probabilistic (uncertainty-aware) solvers for ordinary differential equations (ODEs) applies Gaussian (Kalman) filtering to initial value problems. These methods model the true solution x x x and its first q q q derivatives \emph{a priori} as a Gauss--Markov process X \boldsymbol{X} X , which is…
Unified analysis of Gaussian Process Thompson Sampling without discretization.
problem Sequential decision-making over continuous action spaces.
method Frequentist regret analysis based on fractional Gaussian process posteriors.
result Unified discretization-free regret bound for various kernel classes.
Bayesian method for dynamic correlation matrices improves accuracy and responsiveness.
problem Challenges in estimating time-varying correlation matrices, including slow adaptation, insufficient regularization, and diffuse uncertainty.
method Low-rank factor representation with dynamic shrinkage prior and multivariate factor stochastic volatility model.
result Improved accuracy and responsiveness compared to competing methods in various challenging scenarios.
In this paper we discuss the issue of computation of the bilateral credit valuation adjustment (CVA) under rating triggers, and in presence of ratings-linked margin agreements. Specifically, we consider collateralized OTC contracts, that are subject to rating triggers, between two parties -- an investor and a counterpa…
The paper shows how contracting elements in groups lead to large quotients with specific growth rates.
problem Understanding the growth rates of group actions with contracting elements.
method Using extension lemma, rotating families theory, and quasi-tree construction.
result There exist sequences of quotient groups with growth rates approaching the original group's growth rate.
New algorithms improve Bayesian linear regression with spike-and-slab priors.
problem Efficiently sampling from Bayesian linear regression models with sparsity-inducing priors.
method Design of two sampling algorithms: Gibbs sampling and Stochastic Localization.
result Stochastic Localization sampler shows significant advantage for poorly designed data matrices.
Study confined subgroups in groups with contracting elements, showing their growth rate is strictly greater than half of the ambient growth rate.
problem Understanding the growth rate of confined subgroups in groups with contracting elements.
method Through boundary actions, analyzing the Hopf decomposition and quotient growth.
result Confined subgroups have a growth rate strictly greater than half of the ambient growth rate.
Spike-and-slab priors are popular Bayesian solutions for high-dimensional linear regression problems. Previous theoretical studies on spike-and-slab methods focus on specific prior formulations and use prior-dependent conditions and analyses, and thus can not be generalized directly. In this paper, we propose a class o…
The paper explores perpetual contracts in a financial market without arbitrage.
problem Modeling perpetual contracts in a continuous-time financial market.
method Derive model-free and semi-robust expressions for perpetual contracts' funding and discount rates.
result Explicit replication strategies for perpetual contracts are derived, relating them to traditional financial instruments.
In this article, exponential contraction in Wasserstein distance for heat semigroups of diffusion processes on Riemannian manifolds is established under curvature conditions where Ricci curvature is not necessarily required to be non-negative. Compared to the results of Wang (2016), we focus on explicit estimates for t…
Develops a contraction framework for MCMC mixing rates.
problem Proving mixing-time bounds for MCMC algorithms.
method Global and local contraction coefficients under E γ \mathsf E_γ E γ -divergence. result Explicit global contraction coefficients for Gaussian smoothing.
SBT model uses randomized sharding and sub-models to improve Bayesian Additive Regression Trees.
problem Improving efficiency and accuracy of Bayesian Additive Regression Trees.
method Randomized sharding, sub-models, intersection tree structure, optimal design.
result Theoretical optimal weights and worst-case complexity of SBT model.
CAVI converges globally or locally exponentially for two-block models.
problem Convergence analysis of coordinate ascent variational inference (CAVI).
method Analysis of CAVI convergence using functional analysis and optimization.
result General conditions for certifying global or local exponential convergence of CAVI.
New mortgage contracts reduce underwater default by adjusting loan balances, but must balance prepayment incentives.
problem Underwater default incentives in mortgages.
method Analyzes automatic balance adjustment and prepayment penalties in mortgage contracts.
result Automatic balance adjustments are preferable to traditional contracts at certain spreads, reducing underwater default.
Novel mutual information bound improves statistical inference rates.
problem Improving statistical inference rates in Bayesian nonparametrics.
method Introduces a novel mutual information bound.
result Improved contraction rates for fractional posteriors.
We prove exponential growth rate of contractible closed geodesics for an arbitrary bumpy metric on manifolds of the form X#Y, where the fundamental group of X has a subgroup of finite index at least 3 and Y is simply connected and not a homotopy sphere.