Geometric framework analyzes bias in variational inference for posterior functionals.
problem Analyzing the bias of posterior functionals under variational approximations.
method Developed a geometric framework to evaluate the bias of posterior functionals using the variational tangent space.
result The leading-order bias of a posterior functional is determined by its component orthogonal to the variational tangent space.
Mitigates gender bias amplification in model predictions.
problem Gender bias amplification in model predictions.
method Posterior regularization to mitigate bias.
result Almost removes gender bias amplification in model predictions.
New method corrects selection bias in complex models.
problem Selection bias in statistical studies leading to systematic distortions.
method Amortized Bayesian inference with neural posterior estimation.
result Recover well-calibrated posterior distributions across diverse selection mechanisms.
Bayesian method corrects bias in estimating average treatment effects from observational data.
problem Estimating average treatment effects from observational data with selection bias and missing counterfactuals.
method Data-driven modification to an arbitrary prior based on the propensity score to correct for posterior bias.
result Significant improvement in estimation accuracy and uncertainty quantification compared to unmodified priors.
Bayesian imputation optimizes bias-variance trade-off in time-series data.
problem Look-ahead bias in imputation of missing time-series data.
method Bayesian consensus posterior that fuses multiple posteriors to optimize bias and variance trade-off.
result Benefit of imputation for portfolio allocation with missing returns demonstrated.
Bayesian inference corrects bias in supervised learning datasets.
problem Correcting bias in supervised machine learning datasets.
method Bayesian inference framework to adjust posterior distribution.
result Improved model fitting to original dataset.
Bayesian inference corrected for bias in high-dimensional models.
problem Bayesian inference for high-dimensional regression models often produces biased credible sets.
method Debiasing approach based on Bernstein-von Mises theorem.
result Frequentist validity of debiased Bayesian posterior.
A new method improves Bayesian inference for multimodal posteriors.
problem Insensitivity to well-separated modes in multimodal posteriors.
method Weighted Kernel Stein Discrepancy method.
result Significantly improved mode sensitivity compared to standard KSD-Bayes.
Paper proposes nested MLMC for SNPE with intractable likelihoods.
problem Estimating posterior distributions from intractable likelihoods.
method Nested MLMC for loss function and gradients, with convergence results.
result Effective methods for approximating complex multimodal posteriors.
Feature selection, identifying a subset of variables that are relevant for predicting a response, is an important and challenging component of many methods in statistics and machine learning. Feature selection is especially difficult and computationally intensive when the number of variables approaches or exceeds the n…
Boundary effects inflate variance in Gaussian processes, leading to acquisition bias.
problem Boundary-induced acquisition bias in Gaussian processes.
method Traced root cause to geometric mechanism of kernel truncation at domain boundaries.
result Boundary effects create distortion that worsens with dimensionality, affecting acquisition behavior.
New diagnostic tool for assessing approximate Bayesian inference.
problem Assessing the trustworthiness of approximate Bayesian inference.
method Reframe the problem in terms of incompatible conditional distributions and use Gibbs priors.
result The diagnostic tool can discover the inductive bias in various Bayesian models and approximations.
New method uses quotient predictor space for better PAC-Bayes bounds, reducing KL divergence and improving model performance.
problem Overparameterized models with continuous symmetries can lead to biased predictions.
method Perform PAC-Bayesian analysis on quotient predictor space, constructing a canonical prior that reflects model's implicit bias.
result The new prior reduces KL divergence and improves model performance in experiments.
Bayesian method improves approximate model posteriors.
problem Poor uncertainty quantification in approximate Bayesian inference.
method Optimizing a transformation of the approximate posterior to maximize a scoring rule.
result Significant reduction in bias and improvement in posterior coverage properties.
Adaptive Langevin dynamics reduces bias in Bayesian inference with mini-batching.
problem Bias in posterior sampling due to mini-batching in Bayesian inference.
method Adaptive Langevin dynamics with dynamical friction to correct noise.
result Quantified bias in posterior distribution due to mini-batching.
Improves AI-prior reliability for Bayesian inference.
problem Error propagation from predictive models into posterior inference.
method Rectified AI-informed prior elicitation framework.
result Significant reduction in bias and improvement in predictive performance.
SGD-trained deep nets often generalize well due to a strong inductive bias towards low-error, low-complexity functions.
problem Understanding why overparameterized deep nets generalize well despite fitting training data perfectly.
method Empirical investigation of PSGD(f∣S) and PB(f∣S) for various architectures and datasets. result The probability of SGD-converging on a function consistent with training data correlates well with the Bayesian posterior probability of expressing that function.
New algorithm samples Bayesian neural networks for improved calibration.
problem Improving calibration of Bayesian neural networks.
method Symmetric Minibatch Splitting-UBU (SMS-UBU) algorithm.
result SMS-UBU provides better calibration performance than standard methods.
A new method improves posterior approximation for complex distributions.
problem Difficulty in capturing multimodal and heavy-tailed posteriors with standard normalizing flows.
method StiCTAF: stick-breaking mixture base with component-wise tail adaptation.
result Improved tail recovery and better mode coverage compared to benchmarks.
Bayesian imputation optimizes bias-variance tradeoff in time-series data.
problem Look-ahead bias in imputation of missing time-series data.
method Wasserstein interpolation for Bayesian posterior consensus distribution.
result Optimal control of look-ahead bias and variance in imputation.
Proposes a method to sample from flat basins of posterior distributions in Bayesian deep learning.
problem Sampling from multi-modal posterior distributions leads to overfitting due to trapping in bad modes.
method Introduces an auxiliary guiding variable to bias MCMC sampling towards flat basins of the energy landscape.
result The method converges faster and outperforms existing methods in sampling from flat basins of the posterior.
Annealed Langevin dynamics improves sampling from composite scores in SBI.
problem Irreducible bias in sampling from composite scores of SBI methods.
method Derive Wasserstein bounds and decision rules for hyperparameters.
result Explicit decision rules for hyperparameters guarantee prescribed sampling accuracy.
A framework reduces bias in sampling from posterior distributions.
problem Reducing bias in sampling from posterior distributions.
method A black-box debiasing scheme generating weighted samples.
result Improves accuracy of posterior sampling without increasing variance.
To improve the efficiency of Monte Carlo estimation, practitioners are turning to biased Markov chain Monte Carlo procedures that trade off asymptotic exactness for computational speed. The reasoning is sound: a reduction in variance due to more rapid sampling can outweigh the bias introduced. However, the inexactness …
Black box variational inference (BBVI) with reparameterization gradients triggered the exploration of divergence measures other than the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence, such as alpha divergences. In this paper, we view BBVI with generalized divergences as a form of estimating the marginal likelihood via biased import…
Optimizes kernel density ratios for better predictions and information measures.
problem Improving accuracy of kernel density estimates for density ratios.
method Derives an optimal weight function using calculus of variations.
result Reduces bias in kernel density estimates, leading to improved prediction posteriors and information-theoretic measures.
FJS method improves multinomial classification accuracy.
problem Improving multinomial classification accuracy under dataset shift.
method Derive FJS representation and propose alternative methods.
result Factorizable joint shift is not fully identifiable without additional assumptions.
New method DDVI improves posterior inference for deep Gaussian processes.
problem Inference of inducing points in DGPs is challenging and biased.
method DDVI uses denoising diffusion SDE and score matching for posterior approximation.
result Empirically shows DDVI outperforms baseline methods in inducing point inference.
Improved 3D generative models for drug design reduce bias and enhance data efficiency.
problem Data sparsity and bias in 3D molecular design models.
method Multi-level contrastive learning protocol for bias control and data efficiency.
result Hierarchical generative models that are topologically unbiased and explainable.
We tackle missing data in SBI methods and introduce a neural process approach.
problem Missing data in SBI methods can bias parameter estimation.
method We introduce a neural process approach to jointly learn imputation and inference.
result Our method provides robust inference outcomes compared to baselines.
New method for Bayesian inference on large datasets.
problem Scalable sampling for Bayesian generalized linear mixed models on large datasets.
method Mirror Langevin dynamics with data subsampling, post-processing for variance estimation.
result Asymptotic, order-wise correct estimation of posterior variance.
Can we make Bayesian posterior MCMC sampling more efficient when faced with very large datasets? We argue that computing the likelihood for N datapoints in the Metropolis-Hastings (MH) test to reach a single binary decision is computationally inefficient. We introduce an approximate MH rule based on a sequential hypoth…
Bayesian Pseudo Label Selection reduces overfitting in semi-supervised learning.
problem Overfitting in pseudo-label selection for semi-supervised learning.
method BPLS, a Bayesian framework that approximates the posterior predictive of pseudo-samples.
result BPLS outperforms traditional PLS methods, especially in high-dimensional data.
Bayesian hybrid models correct for missing physics in machine learning.
problem Systematic bias in machine learning models.
method Fusing physics-based insights with machine learning constructs, using Bayesian calibration and stochastic programming.
result Bayesian hybrid models outperform pure machine learning approaches with less data.
This paper examines the convergence of adaptive sampling methods for Bayesian neural networks.
problem Uncertainty quantification in deep neural networks, especially for medical applications.
method Locally adaptive and scalable diffusion-based sampling methods.
result These methods can have a substantial bias in the distribution they sample, even in the limit of vanishing step sizes.
Paper improves variational inference by tightening bounds using perturbation theory.
problem Improving variational inference's bias and KL divergence approximation.
method Revisits perturbation theory to derive corrections that tighten variational bounds.
result New bounds are tighter and more mass-covering, leading to higher likelihoods.
The paper decouples shrinkage and selection in Bayesian Quantile Regression.
problem Improving prediction accuracy in high-dimensional Bayesian Quantile Regression.
method Two-step procedure: shrinkage through continuous priors, sparsification through SAVS.
result The method reduces bias and provides interpretable variable selection.
Paper presents variational estimates for EBLVMs without structural assumptions.
problem Challenges in learning and evaluating EBLVMs due to intractable true posteriors and partition functions.
method Variational estimates of the score function and its gradient (VaES and VaGES) in a general EBLVM.
result The estimates can be applied to KSD and SM-based methods to learn EBLVMs and estimate Fisher divergence.
Improves decision-making in models fit with AEVB by using distinct approximate posteriors.
problem Bias in expected risk estimates due to variational distribution use.
method Use multiple approximate posteriors, including those distinct from variational, for decision-making.
result Proposed approach outperforms state-of-the-art methods in single-cell RNA sequencing.
Stochastic gradient descent approximates Gaussian process posteriors efficiently.
problem Efficiently sampling from Gaussian process posteriors with limited computational resources.
method Developed stochastic gradient optimization objectives for sampling from Gaussian process posteriors.
result Stochastic gradient descent produces accurate predictive distributions, even in non-convergent cases.
Pseudo-label selection affects semi-supervised learning performance.
problem Selection of pseudo-labeled data impacts semi-supervised learning's generalization performance.
method Embedding pseudo-label selection into decision theory, deriving a novel selection criterion based on posterior predictive.
result BPLS (Bayesian pseudo-label selection) outperforms traditional methods in overfitting-prone data.
Adaptive stepsizing improves sampling in Bayesian neural networks.
problem Scalable sampling of posterior distributions in Bayesian neural networks.
method SA-SGLD, employing time rescaling to adapt stepsize dynamically.
result SA-SGLD achieves more accurate posterior sampling than SGLD.
Paper presents a fast method for estimating hidden states in Bayesian models.
problem Estimating hidden states in Bayesian state space models efficiently.
method Amortized simulation-based inference with pretraining.
result The method achieves sufficient accuracy and fast inference times.
NPE improves scalability and efficiency for ERGMs.
problem Scalability and efficiency issues in Bayesian ERGM estimation.
method Neural posterior estimation (NPE) for ERGMs using neural network density estimation.
result NPE provides more efficient and scalable inference for ERGMs.
We introduce a novel stochastic version of the non-reversible, rejection-free Bouncy Particle Sampler (BPS), a Markov process whose sample trajectories are piecewise linear. The algorithm is based on simulating first arrival times in a doubly stochastic Poisson process using the thinning method, and allows efficient sa…
New algorithm improves treatment effect estimation from observational data.
problem Estimating the benefits and harms of interventions from observational data.
method Develops a deep kernel regression algorithm and posterior regularization framework.
result Substantially outperforms state-of-the-art on various benchmarks datasets.
DE-PSGLD samples from constrained distributions in a decentralized manner.
problem Sampling from log-concave distributions with constraints.
method Decentralized Proximal Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics with proximal regularization.
result DE-PSGLD converges to a regularized Gibbs distribution and maintains posterior concentration.
AMF-VI uses adaptive mixtures of flows for robust VI across diverse distributions.
problem Inconsistent behavior of single-flow models across different distributions.
method Sequential expert training of individual flows and adaptive global weight estimation via likelihood-driven updates.
result AMF-VI achieves lower negative log-likelihood and stable gains in transport metrics across various posterior families.