A new method for analyzing latent space models without reference configurations.
problem Posterior summaries of latent coordinates in Euclidean latent space models are not canonical due to likelihood invariance.
method Quotient-based posterior analysis using the centered Gram map.
result Intrinsic posterior summaries of mean structure and uncertainty can be computed directly from posterior samples.
New methods for scalable inference in modular models with misspecified sub-models.
problem Model misspecification in multi-modular models complicates evidence combination.
method Variational methods for approximating Cut and SMI posteriors, and Variational Meta-Posterior.
result Feasibility of analysis with multiple cuts using a single set of variational parameters.
A new method improves uncertainty quantification in Bayesian inference.
problem Poor uncertainty quantification in traditional Gibbs posteriors.
method Sequential Gibbs posteriors with a Bernstein-von Mises theorem.
result Sequential Gibbs posteriors provide better frequentist coverage.
The paper analyzes how Gaussian kernel parameters affect posterior covariance in Gaussian processes.
problem Understanding the influence of Gaussian kernel parameters on posterior covariance in Gaussian processes.
method Geometric analysis and a posteriori error estimation techniques from adaptive finite element methods.
result The bandwidth parameter and spatial distribution of observations significantly influence posterior covariance and its matrix.
Improved Thompson Sampling using fractional posteriors achieves better regret bounds.
problem Optimizing regret in stochastic multi-armed bandit problems.
method Using α-posterior distributions, derived frequentist regret bounds. result Instance-dependent and instance-independent regret bounds established.
KL annealing helps VAEs avoid posterior collapse and overfitting.
problem Posterior collapse and overfitting in VAEs.
method Theoretical analysis of learning dynamics with KL annealing.
result Posterior collapse is inevitable when β exceeds a threshold. Kolmogorov-Arnold network improves GW catalog posterior construction.
problem Efficiently constructing posterior distributions for GW catalogs.
method Using the Kolmogorov-Arnold network to create lightweight neural density estimators.
result Kolmogorov-Arnold network achieves superior interpretability and accuracy in posterior construction.
The posterior variance of Gaussian processes is a valuable measure of the learning error which is exploited in various applications such as safe reinforcement learning and control design. However, suitable analysis of the posterior variance which captures its behavior for finite and infinite number of training data is …
This paper introduces Bayes Hilbert spaces for efficient posterior approximation.
problem Efficient posterior approximation in Bayesian models for large datasets.
method Develops Bayes Hilbert spaces for posterior approximation and connects them to Bayesian coresets and kernel-based distances.
result Bayes Hilbert spaces provide a novel framework for posterior approximation that is computationally efficient.
GP-PCA reduces infinite-dimensional GP posteriors to a finite space for meta-learning.
problem How to define a structure for a set of Gaussian process posteriors.
method Information geometric framework and variational inference.
result GP-PCA improves meta-learning performance through reduced GP posteriors.
Posterior collapse in Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) arises when the variational posterior distribution closely matches the prior for a subset of latent variables. This paper presents a simple and intuitive explanation for posterior collapse through the analysis of linear VAEs and their direct correspondence with Prob…
Posterior sampling-based EI achieves sublinear regret bounds for expensive function optimization.
problem Theoretical analysis of expected improvement (EI) in Bayesian optimization.
method Randomized posterior sampling of EI.
result Achieves sublinear Bayesian cumulative regret bounds.
Bayesian neural networks use temperature adjustments to improve predictive performance.
problem Lack of theoretical generalization guarantees for Bayesian neural networks.
method Temperature adjustments to balance likelihood and prior regularization.
result Improved predictive performance through temperature adjustments.
Unified analysis of Gaussian Process Thompson Sampling without discretization.
problem Sequential decision-making over continuous action spaces.
method Frequentist regret analysis based on fractional Gaussian process posteriors.
result Unified discretization-free regret bound for various kernel classes.
New priors can update posteriors without re-estimating likelihoods.
problem Degradation of classification approaches when class priors change.
method Recompute posteriors using recovered likelihoods from original posteriors and new priors.
result Dynamic update of original posteriors is possible without re-estimating likelihoods.
We consider the problem of sequential learning from categorical observations bounded in [0,1]. We establish an ordering between the Dirichlet posterior over categorical outcomes and a Gaussian posterior under observations with N(0,1) noise. We establish that, conditioned upon identical data with at least two observatio…
FMM fails to accurately determine the number of components even with consistent posterior.
problem Determining the number of subpopulations in a data set using FMM.
method Analysis of FMM component-count posterior under model misspecification.
result FMM component-count posterior diverges under model misspecification, contrary to intuition.
In many domains, scientists build complex simulators of natural phenomena that encode their hypotheses about the underlying processes. These simulators can be deterministic or stochastic, fast or slow, constrained or unconstrained, and so on. Optimizing the simulators with respect to a set of parameter values is common…
Improved predictive posterior density estimation through optimized importance sampling.
problem Low signal-to-noise ratio in posterior predictive densities.
method Optimized importance sampling using a test-time variational proxy.
result Significantly improved estimates of predictive posterior densities.
PAC-Bayes bounds for Gibbs posteriors derived via singular learning theory.
problem Generalization bounds for overparameterized models with data-dependent priors.
method Explicit non-asymptotic PAC-Bayes bounds using singular learning theory.
result Explicit posterior-averaged risk bounds for overparameterized models.
Bayesian inference has great promise for the privacy-preserving analysis of sensitive data, as posterior sampling automatically preserves differential privacy, an algorithmic notion of data privacy, under certain conditions (Dimitrakakis et al., 2014; Wang et al., 2015). While this one posterior sample (OPS) approach e…
A new TS-SA method alleviates non-stationarity in TS algorithms for bandits.
problem Non-stationarity in existing TS algorithms for multi-armed bandits.
method Integrates stochastic approximation within TS framework, using Langevin Monte Carlo and SA steps.
result Establishes near-optimal regret bounds for TS-SA, with simplified analysis.
This paper addresses error bounds and posterior variance for Gaussian process regression.
problem Deriving performance guarantees for Gaussian process regression without prior knowledge.
method Lipschitz continuity and analysis of posterior variance function.
result Uniform error bounds for Gaussian process regression are derived.
Paper examines stability of Bayesian posterior measures using integral probability metrics.
problem Stability of Bayesian inference in large-scale inverse problems.
method New families of integral probability metrics for likelihood and prior perturbations.
result Constructs new stability results for Bayesian posterior measures.
Improved Bayesian inference via variational approximations of generalized rho-posteriors.
problem Robust Bayesian inference under model misspecification and data contamination.
method Introducing a modified ρ-posterior and using PAC-Bayesian analysis with variational approximations. result Theoretical guarantees for tractable inference with competitive robustness and computational efficiency.
DP-SEP privatizes EP by refining a single factor per data point.
problem Private inference of complex models with limited memory.
method Stochastic Expectation Propagation with differential privacy.
result DP-SEP provides better posterior estimates with guaranteed privacy.
New perspective on federated learning as posterior inference, improving optimization.
problem Optimizing global models in distributed learning settings.
method Formulated as posterior inference problem, using MCMC for approximate inference and federated averaging for refinement.
result Federated posterior averaging (FedPA) outperforms existing methods on benchmarks.
Robust VB framework handles contamination using min-max median aggregation.
problem Handling contamination and outliers in datasets.
method Partition data into subsets, formulate robust optimization problem, use min-max median KL divergence.
result Min-max median formulation improves robustness and statistical rates.
A novel diffusion method for Bayesian posterior sampling with theoretical guarantees.
problem Efficiently sampling from complex posterior distributions in Bayesian inversion.
method Diffusion-based posterior sampling using Langevin dynamics and PnP framework.
result The method converges even for multi-modal posterior distributions with theoretical error bounds.
The paper analyzes and proposes a new stopping criterion for recursive Bayesian classification.
problem Limitations of conventional stopping criteria in recursive Bayesian classification.
method Geometric interpretation of state posterior progression and analysis of conventional criteria.
result Proposes a new stopping criterion to overcome limitations of conventional methods.
Bayesian SSI improves modal parameter uncertainty in operational systems.
problem Uncertainty in modal parameters due to stochastic operational systems and lack of forcing information.
method Proposes a Bayesian stochastic subspace identification (SSI) algorithm with a hierarchical probabilistic model and two inference schemes (Markov Chain Monte Carlo and variational Bayes).
result Posterior distributions over modal properties are obtained, showing lower variance for mean values coinciding with natural frequencies.
New framework quantifies uncertainty in flexible density-based clustering.
problem Uncertainty quantification in clustering with non-parametric density estimation.
method Martingale posterior distributions and density-based clustering.
result Efficient GPU-compatible inference on clustering structures with uncertainty.
The paper revisits and improves on a Bayesian relevance vector machine method for small sample sizes.
problem Statistical modeling with small sample sizes relative to the number of covariates.
method Introduces a new class of global-local priors and provides theoretical properties.
result Results on posterior consistency and contraction rates are provided.
A new method improves posterior approximation for complex distributions.
problem Difficulty in capturing multimodal and heavy-tailed posteriors with standard normalizing flows.
method StiCTAF: stick-breaking mixture base with component-wise tail adaptation.
result Improved tail recovery and better mode coverage compared to benchmarks.
The paper proposes a Gibbs sampler for neural network posterior sampling.
problem Sampling from the posterior of neural networks.
method Adding noise to activations and using a Gibbs sampler.
result The Gibbs sampler achieves similar performance to MCMC methods on real and synthetic data.
New method improves posterior sampling for complex data models.
problem Sampling from posterior distributions in high-dimensional data.
method Tilted transport technique combining denoising oracle and log-likelihood.
result Boosted posterior is strongly log-concave, facilitating easier sampling.
A new method improves Bayesian filtering in nonlinear systems.
problem Bayesian filtering in nonlinear dynamical systems with non-Gaussian posteriors.
method Transport maps with block-triangular structure and gradient flows for MMD minimization.
result Accurate approximation of non-Gaussian posteriors without particle collapse.
This work tackles posterior collapse in conditional and hierarchical VAEs.
problem Posterior collapse in VAEs leads to poor latent variable representations.
method Theoretical analysis of linear conditional and hierarchical VAEs, empirical validation.
result Theoretical and empirical evidence of posterior collapse causes in conditional and hierarchical VAEs.
Deep learning speeds up gravitational wave analysis.
problem Computational challenge in analyzing gravitational wave data.
method Trained a neural-network to model posterior probability distributions over 15-dimensional system parameters.
result Generated accurate posterior samples at high speed.
The paper analyzes sparse high-dimensional linear regression with random design and unknown error variance, providing adaptiveness and concentration rates.
problem Sparse high-dimensional linear regression with random design and unknown error variance.
method Analysis of posterior concentration rates, employing techniques to address model misspecification.
result Adaptiveness and concentration rates of the posterior for sparse high-dimensional linear regression.
Enhances multimodal generation with Normalizing Flows and correlation analysis.
problem Generating coherent cross-modal data from multiple sources.
method Uses Deep Canonical Correlation Analysis for shared information, Normalizing Flows for diversity, and Product of Experts for scalability.
result Improves likelihood, diversity, and coherence in conditional generation.
A new ensemble filter uses transport maps and MMD optimization for high-dimensional data assimilation.
problem High-dimensional data assimilation challenges in ensemble filtering.
method Optimized Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) for transport map construction.
result Significant improvement in robustness and posterior approximation.
Geometric framework analyzes bias in variational inference for posterior functionals.
problem Analyzing the bias of posterior functionals under variational approximations.
method Developed a geometric framework to evaluate the bias of posterior functionals using the variational tangent space.
result The leading-order bias of a posterior functional is determined by its component orthogonal to the variational tangent space.
Non-negative tensor factorization models enable predictive analysis on count data. Among them, Bayesian Poisson-Gamma models can derive full posterior distributions of latent factors and are less sensitive to sparse count data. However, current inference methods for these Bayesian models adopt restricted update rules f…
This paper computes exact posterior distributions of mixture weights in hierarchical Bayesian models.
problem Uncertainty in class membership or data-generating processes in heterogeneous data.
method Exact marginalization of mixture weights using dynamic programming and FFT for two components, and joint dynamic program for K >= 3 components.
result Exact posterior distributions of mixture weights are finite mixtures of Beta distributions, providing credible intervals and per-observation local false-discovery rates.
New method solves linear inverse problems using diffusion models.
problem Linear inverse problems in various domains.
method Posterior sampling with latent diffusion models.
result Provable sample recovery in linear models, outperforming previous methods.
We propose a vector-valued regression problem whose solution is equivalent to the reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) embedding of the Bayesian posterior distribution. This equivalence provides a new understanding of kernel Bayesian inference. Moreover, the optimization problem induces a new regularization for the …
Differentially private statistical inference using β-divergence.
problem Achieving differential privacy without altering data generation.
method Sampling from a generalised posterior minimizing β-divergence. result More precise inference with broader applicability.