We develop a general approach to valid inference after model selection. At the core of our framework is a result that characterizes the distribution of a post-selection estimator conditioned on the selection event. We specialize the approach to model selection by the lasso to form valid confidence intervals for the sel…
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48 results for “post model selection estimator”
PS-DME evaluates model performance and reliability after data-dependent selection.
problem Evaluating model performance and reliability when data is used for selection and evaluation.
method Post-selection distributional model evaluation (PS-DME) using e-values to control false coverage rate.
result PS-DME provides reliable comparison of model configurations across different reliability levels.
Post-hoc transforms can reverse model performance trends, especially in noisy settings.
problem Post-hoc transforms can reverse model performance trends, especially in noisy settings.
method Empirical study and analysis of post-hoc transforms like temperature scaling, ensembling, and SWA.
result Post-hoc reversal can prevent double descent and mitigate mismatches between test loss and test error.
The paper discusses methods for interval estimation of coefficients in penalized regression models for insurance data.
problem Valid inference on coefficients after feature selection in GLM family for insurance data.
method Proposes methodologies for constructing confidence intervals of coefficients after feature selection in GLM family.
result Valid inference on coefficients after feature selection in GLM family for insurance data.
"Which Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) generates the most plausible images?" has been a frequently asked question among researchers. To address this problem, we first propose an \emph{incomplete} U-statistics estimate of maximum mean discrepancy to measure the distribution discrepancy betwee…
Proposes MinPEN framework for estimating relationships in multivariate models.
problem Estimating relationships between multivariate outcomes in statistical learning.
method MinPEN framework using minimum function penalty for non-convex optimization.
result Theoretical and practical validation of MinPEN framework for multivariate models.
In the knowledge that the ex-post performance of Markowitz efficient portfolios is inferior to that implied ex-ante, we make two contributions to the portfolio selection literature. Firstly, we propose a methodology to identify the region of risk-expected return space where ex-post performance matches ex-ante estimates…
PH-CS selects test inputs with reliability guarantees, adapting FDR to data.
problem Fixed FDR limits adaptability to downstream needs.
method Post-hoc conformal selection with e-variables, e-BH procedure.
result PH-CS provides reliable FDP estimates and competitive FDR control.
Paper improves Lasso for S&P500 index tracking with post-selection inference.
problem Index tracking for S&P500 with many applications.
method Used Lasso for dimension reduction and post-selection inference.
result Lasso method for S&P500 index tracking shows high performance.
Causal Markov Boundariesstat.ML
Paper improves feature selection for predicting outcomes from observational data.
problem Feature selection for post-intervention outcome prediction from pre-intervention variables in healthcare settings.
method Extends Markov boundary concept to treatment-outcome pairs, uses observational and experimental data.
result Combining observational and experimental data improves feature selection and effect estimation.
Empirical researchers are increasingly faced with rich data sets containing many controls or instrumental variables, making it essential to choose an appropriate approach to variable selection. In this paper, we provide results for valid inference after post- or orthogonal -Boosting is used for variable selection.…
Proposes HSIC-Lasso for selective inference in non-linear data.
problem Detecting influential features in non-linear and high-dimensional data.
method Model-free HSIC-Lasso based on truncated Gaussians and polyhedral lemma.
result Tight control of type-I error even for small sample sizes.
PS^2 selects assets then weights for high-dimensional investing.
problem High-dimensional mean--variance investing challenges.
method Two-step framework: Lasso screening followed by standard portfolio estimation.
result FPS^2 with defactored returns improves performance.
New method corrects selection bias in post-selective inference for Group LASSO.
problem Inference after Group LASSO selection is unreliable.
method Develops a consistent, post-selective Bayesian method to adjust for selection bias.
result Corrects bias in recovering effects of selected variables.
The goal of query performance prediction (QPP) is to automatically estimate the effectiveness of a search result for any given query, without relevance judgements. Post-retrieval features have been shown to be more effective for this task while being more expensive to compute than pre-retrieval features. Combining mult…
The paper studies early stopping methods in linear contextual bandits.
problem Minimizing in-experiment regret and conducting robust post-experiment inferences in contextual bandits.
method The study proposes early stopping rules based on the Opportunity Cost and Threshold Method, using variances of estimators to quantify upper regret bounds.
result The proposed method provides a systematic approach to minimize in-experiment regret and conduct robust post-experiment inferences.
Selective inference for group lasso estimators across various distributions and covariates.
problem Developing selective inference methods for group lasso estimators.
method Randomized group-regularized optimization problem with post-selection likelihood.
result Selective point estimator and Wald-type confidence regions for regression parameters.
Measuring divergence between two distributions is essential in machine learning and statistics and has various applications including binary classification, change point detection, and two-sample test. Furthermore, in the era of big data, designing divergence measure that is interpretable and can handle high-dimensiona…
Develops a forward variable selection method for interpretable random forest models.
problem Interpreting high-dimensional non-parametric models like random forests.
method Forward variable selection using CRPS as loss function, with hypothesis testing at each step.
result Method selects a smaller set of variables that optimizes predictive performance.
EAGLE improves reproducibility and stability of model explanations.
problem Creating reliable explanations for opaque machine learning models.
method Formulates perturbation selection as an information-theoretic active learning problem.
result EAGLE learns a linear surrogate model with feature importance scores and uncertainty estimates.
While statistics and machine learning offers numerous methods for ensuring generalization, these methods often fail in the presence of adaptivity---the common practice in which the choice of analysis depends on previous interactions with the same dataset. A recent line of work has introduced powerful, general purpose a…
Sparse feature selection improves batch RL efficiency.
problem High-dimensional batch RL with many features.
method Sparse linear function approximation, Lasso, group Lasso, fitted Q-evaluation, fitted Q-iteration.
result Sparse feature selection makes batch RL more sample efficient.
Lasso proves consistent model selection for high-dimensional Ising models.
problem Model selection consistency of Lasso for high-dimensional Ising models.
method Theoretical analysis of Lasso with and without post-thresholding for Ising models.
result Lasso without post-thresholding is model selection consistent in the whole paramagnetic phase with .
In this paper, we provide efficient estimators and honest confidence bands for a variety of treatment effects including local average (LATE) and local quantile treatment effects (LQTE) in data-rich environments. We can handle very many control variables, endogenous receipt of treatment, heterogeneous treatment effects,…
Valid causal inference with unobserved confounding in high-dimensional settings.
problem Estimating causal effects with unobserved confounders in high-dimensional data.
method Proposes methods to estimate causal effects with valid confidence intervals in the presence of unobserved confounders and high-dimensional nuisance models.
result Valid semiparametric inference can be obtained with unobserved confounding, and uncertainty intervals are proposed.
Estimates true Sharpe ratio of selected assets with various methods.
problem Estimating the true Sharpe ratio of a selected asset with high in-sample ratio.
method Polyhedral lemma, James Stein shrinkage, debiasing, thresholding, empirical Bayes.
result James Stein estimator performs best across various parameter values.
On Computationally Tractable Selection of Experiments in Measurement-Constrained Regression Modelsstat.ML
We derive computationally tractable methods to select a small subset of experiment settings from a large pool of given design points. The primary focus is on linear regression models, while the technique extends to generalized linear models and Delta's method (estimating functions of linear regression models) as well. …
Post-calibration improves the accuracy of causal effect estimation.
problem Improperly calibrated propensity scores lead to inaccurate causal effect estimation.
method Performed a simulation study to assess the impact of post-calibration on causal effect estimation.
result Post-calibration reduces the error in estimating the average treatment effect, especially for expressive uncalibrated statistical estimators.
Paper optimizes change detection in unnormalized distributions.
problem Detecting changes in unnormalized pre- and post-change distributions.
method Log-Partition Approximation Cumulative Sum (LPA-CUSUM) algorithm based on thermodynamic integration.
result Asymptotically optimal performance achieved through unbiased estimation of CUSUM statistics.
The paper develops methods to estimate treatment effects in sample selection models.
problem Evaluation of treatments when outcomes are only observed for a subpopulation due to sample selection or attrition.
method Combines selection-on-observables and instrumental variable assumptions with double machine learning for treatment evaluation.
result Proposed estimators are asymptotically normal and root-n consistent.
Ever since the proof of asymptotic normality of maximum likelihood estimator by Cramer (1946), it has been understood that a basic technique of the Taylor series expansion suffices for asymptotics of -estimators with smooth/differentiable loss function. Although the Taylor series expansion is a purely deterministic …
New framework for valid hypothesis testing in complex data settings.
problem Challenges in classical hypothesis testing frameworks.
method Add and subtract external noise to partition data, orthogonalize, and test hypotheses.
result Valid hypothesis tests can be conducted under minimal assumptions.
Study examines inference methods after variable selection in Cox models.
problem Bias and misleading inference after variable selection in Cox models.
method Simulation study of inference procedures for Lasso and adaptive Lasso in Cox models.
result Performance of inference procedures varies, with debiased Lasso showing promise.
New method improves regression estimates, reducing bias.
problem Omitted variable bias in high-dimensional linear regression.
method Post-Double-Autometrics, an alternative to Post-Double-Lasso.
result Post-Double-Autometrics outperforms Post-Double-Lasso.
We develop a framework for post model selection inference, via marginal screening, in linear regression. At the core of this framework is a result that characterizes the exact distribution of linear functions of the response , conditional on the model being selected (``condition on selection" framework). This allows…
Post-ADC inference corrects bias in statistical inference after active data collection.
problem Bias in inference after active data collection.
method Post-ADC inference framework that corrects bias from both ADC process and data-driven target construction.
result Valid inference for data collected by SMBO methods like GP-UCB and TPE.
This research improves uncertainty estimation for medical predictions, enhancing model trust and decision support.
problem Improving model uncertainty estimation for rare medical conditions.
method Developed and refined heuristics for selecting uncertainty estimation techniques, distinguishing them by clinical use-case. Also, compared ensembles vs. auto-encoders for detecting out-of-domain examples.
result Auto-encoders outperform ensembles in detecting out-of-domain examples, highlighting their importance for medical tabular data.
Boosting is one of the most significant developments in machine learning. This paper studies the rate of convergence of Boosting, which is tailored for regression, in a high-dimensional setting. Moreover, we introduce so-called \textquotedblleft post-Boosting\textquotedblright. This is a post-selection estimator w…
Model improves CVR estimation in recommender systems by mitigating bias and overlooking causal relationships.
problem Data sparsity and sample selection bias in CVR estimation.
method Entire Space Counterfactual Multitask Model (ESCM) incorporating counterfactual risk minimizer.
result Significantly enhances recommendation performance by effectively mitigating bias and overlooking causal relationships.
Paper proposes a sparse synthetic control method to select important predictors.
problem Choosing and weighting predictors affects synthetic control estimator performance.
method Sparse synthetic control procedure that penalizes predictors, derived in a linear factor model.
result Sparse synthetic control achieves lower bias and better post-treatment performance.
The study introduces a high-dimensional tail index model for viral post analysis.
problem Empirical observation of power-law distributions in viral posts.
method High-dimensional tail index regression model, regularized estimator, debiasing for inference.
result Consistency and asymptotic normality of debiased estimator.
Robust quickest change detection method for unknown score functions.
problem Detecting changes in data streams with unknown pre- and post-change distributions.
method Selects least-favorable distributions and robustifies score-based detection algorithm.
result Demonstrates improved performance in simulations.
Develops methods to adjust prediction set coverage based on post-selection analysis.
problem Adjusting prediction set coverage after initial analysis to better fit specific needs.
method Post-selection conformal inference to adjust miscoverage levels.
result Allows for trade-off between coverage and prediction set quality.
The paper uses facial keypoints to estimate post-surgical pain intensity.
problem Accurately assessing pain levels from self-reported ratings is challenging.
method The approach analyzes 2D and 3D facial keypoints to estimate pain intensity.
result The pain estimation model uses multiple instance learning.
Constructs models to meet any DP requirement without retraining.
problem Evolving privacy requirements at inference time.
method Two post-processing techniques: random selection and linear combination.
result Final private models satisfying any target privacy parameter.
Are causal effect estimations enough for optimal recommendations under multitreatment scenarios?stat.ML
Enhances credit card limit adjustments by considering treatment uncertainty and prediction criteria.
problem Optimal treatment selection under multitreatment scenarios.
method Proposes a comprehensive methodology incorporating conditional value-at-risk and prediction criterion for continuous outcomes.
result Significantly improved policy performance in credit card limit adjustments.
An efficient algorithm selects the correct number of latent dimensions in multidimensional probit models.
problem Determining the correct number of latent dimensions in multidimensional probit graded response models.
method Adaptive Bayesian dimension selection framework using cumulative ordered spike-and-slab (COSS) prior and Albert--Chib latent response augmentation.
result The proposed method accurately recovers latent structures and avoids repeated model fitting.
Simultaneous inference after model selection is of critical importance to address scientific hypotheses involving a set of parameters. In this paper, we consider high-dimensional linear regression model in which a regularization procedure such as LASSO is applied to yield a sparse model. To establish a simultaneous pos…