Model election dynamics and disinformation impact using information flow.
problem Understanding the unpredictable evolution of election polls and disinformation effects.
method Model election dynamics by specifying the flow of relevant information, deriving poll statistics as outputs.
result Derived outputs (poll statistics) reveal insights into prediction, disinformation impact, and optimal information management strategies.
Donald Trump was lagging behind in nearly all opinion polls leading up to the 2016 US presidential election, but he surprisingly won the election. This raises the following important questions: 1) why most opinion polls were not accurate in 2016? and 2) how to improve the accuracies of opinion polls? In this paper, we …
Blockchain fan tokens boost sports fan engagement by 50%.
problem Low fan engagement in sports decisions.
method Analyzed 3,576 fan token polls to identify determinants of participation.
result Fan tokens engage 4,003 participants per poll, 50% of token holders.
Study uses Viber and street polls to estimate Belarus election ratings and turnout.
problem Obtaining accurate ratings of candidates in Belarus's banned polls.
method Bayesian multilevel regression with poststratification.
result Estimated ratings and turnout contradict official election results.
Study on continual learning with Twitter data, developing ConGraD algorithm.
problem Personalized online language learning on a massive scale.
method Developed POLL problem setting, collected Firehose datasets, and introduced ConGraD algorithm.
result ConGraD algorithm outperforms prior continual learning methods on Firehose datasets.
The problem of population recovery refers to estimating a distribution based on incomplete or corrupted samples. Consider a random poll of sample size n conducted on a population of individuals, where each pollee is asked to answer d binary questions. We consider one of the two polling impediments: (a) in lossy pop…
Hybrid engine analyzes news sentiment for markets in real-time.
problem Real-time market analysis of news sentiment.
method Three-way ensemble learning combining financial lexicon, adaptive TF-IDF clustering, and auto-calibrated weighting.
result Adaptive statistical clustering learner improves adaptability to market changes.
The prevalence of online media has attracted researchers from various domains to explore human behavior and make interesting predictions. In this research, we leverage heterogeneous social media data collected from various online platforms to predict Taiwan's 2016 presidential election. In contrast to most existing res…
Proposes a neural network model to improve predictions in biased datasets.
problem Reduces bias in predictions from datasets with selection bias.
method Integrates meta information about bias direction and quantity into a neural network model.
result Improves prediction accuracy in electoral polls with biased training data.
We combine fine-grained spatially referenced census data with the vote outcomes from the 2016 US presidential election. Using this dataset, we perform ecological inference using distribution regression (Flaxman et al, KDD 2015) with a multinomial-logit regression so as to model the vote outcome Trump, Clinton, Other / …
Opinion polls have been the bridge between public opinion and politicians in elections. However, developing surveys to disclose people's feedback with respect to economic issues is limited, expensive, and time-consuming. In recent years, social media such as Twitter has enabled people to share their opinions regarding …
Study optimizes data collection from biased, costly sources to minimize risk.
problem Estimating population means and group-conditional means from multiple sources with varying costs and biases.
method Develops a sampling plan that maximizes effective sample size, paired with a post-stratification estimator.
result Achieves budgeted minimax optimal risk for estimating population means and group-conditional means.
The paper proposes using experts' insights in machine learning tasks.
problem Lack of reliance on experts' opinions in machine learning tasks.
method A three-step framework for integrating experts' insights into machine learning models.
result Proposed models achieve more stable and lower log loss results compared to top solutions.
MakerDAO's governance is centralized despite its decentralized claim.
problem Decentralization illusion in Decentralized Finance (DeFi) governance.
method Empirical analysis using financial, transaction, network, and sentiment indicators.
result Centralized governance impacts Maker protocol and voting power distribution.
The paper explores learning from label proportions, showing differences in efficiency between LLP and PAC learning.
problem Learning from label proportions (LLP) in unlabeled data with given label proportions.
method Formal definition and computational complexity analysis of LLP learning.
result LLP learning is more restrictive than PAC learning for finite VC classes, and some classes are uncharacterizable.
Among the central tenets of globalization is free migration of labor. Although much has been written about its benefits, little is known about the limitations of globalization, including how immigration affects the anti-globalist sentiment. Analyzing polls data, we find that over the last three years in a group of EU c…
QuEst combines model predictions with observed data to estimate quantile-based measures.
problem Limited applicability of current hybrid-inference tools for quantile-based distributional measures.
method Principled framework merging observed and imputed data for a wide range of quantile-based measures.
result QuEst delivers point estimates and rigorous confidence intervals for quantile-based measures.
Wasserstein t-SNE embeds hierarchical datasets considering within-unit distributions.
problem Exploring hierarchical datasets where units are compared based on means of sample distributions.
method Uses Wasserstein distance metric for 2D embeddings of units, approximating Gaussian distributions for efficiency.
result Demonstrates effective embedding of hierarchical datasets, uncovering meaningful structure.
Classification Ensemble, which uses the weighed polling of outputs, is the art of combining a set of basic classifiers for generating high-performance, robust and more stable results. This study aims to improve the results of identifying the Persian handwritten letters using Error Correcting Output Coding (ECOC) ensemb…
Majority Vote is optimal for reliable data labeling under certain conditions.
problem Reliable data labeling requires aggregating multiple annotators' labels, but the optimality of Majority Vote is not well understood.
method Characterized conditions under which Majority Vote achieves the optimal label estimation error.
result Majority Vote optimally recovers labels for a given class distribution under tolerable annotation noise limits.
We consider the estimation of binary election outcomes as martingales and propose an arbitrage pricing when one continuously updates estimates. We argue that the estimator needs to be priced as a binary option as the arbitrage valuation minimizes the conventionally used Brier score for tracking the accuracy of probabil…
There certainly is little or no doubt that politicians, sometimes consciously and sometimes not, exert a significant impact on stock markets. The evolving volatility over the Republican Donald Trump's surprise victory in the US presidential election is a perfect example when politicians, through announced policies, sen…
This paper examines how institutional liquidity affects prediction markets.
problem How institutional liquidity impacts prediction markets and their quality.
method Defines a market-quality lens, separates channels, and uses synthetic microstructure lab.
result Institutional liquidity does not necessarily translate to equal gains for all traders.
Imitative and contrarian behaviors are the two typical opposite attitudes of investors in stock markets. We introduce a simple model to investigate their interplay in a stock market where agents can take only two states, bullish or bearish. Each bullish (bearish) agent polls m "friends'' and changes her opinion to bear…
Study lightlike submanifolds in indefinite statistical manifolds, finding conditions and curvature expressions.
problem Characterize lightlike submanifolds in indefinite statistical manifolds.
method Analyze conditions for lightlike submanifolds to be lightlike statistical submanifolds, derive statistical sectional curvature, and investigate induced statistical Ricci tensor symmetry.
result Conditions for lightlike submanifolds to be lightlike statistical submanifolds and expressions for statistical sectional curvature and induced Ricci tensor symmetry.
Study on statistical properties of Kenmotsu statistical manifolds and inequalities.
problem Investigate statistical curvature properties and inequalities in Kenmotsu statistical manifolds.
method Optimization techniques on submanifolds to prove inequalities.
result Proved a Chen-Ricci inequality for statistical submanifolds in Kenmotsu statistical manifolds.
Study anti-invariant submersions from holomorphic statistical manifolds.
problem Understanding submersions in statistical manifolds.
method Introduced and analyzed anti-invariant holomorphic statistical submersions.
result Supported results with examples.
Study on solitons in Kenmotsu statistical manifolds and submanifolds.
problem Investigating solitons in Kenmotsu statistical manifolds and their submanifolds.
method Examined statistical solitons and Yamabe solitons, studied curvature properties, and analyzed submanifolds with concircular and concurrent vector fields.
result Discussed the behavior of almost quasi-Yamabe solitons on submanifolds of Kenmotsu statistical manifolds.
Unified approach to private statistics from empirical to population data.
problem Divided focus on empirical vs population statistics in private statistics.
method Unified methods for both types of statistics.
result Methods for empirical statistics can be applied to population statistics.
Study on statistical manifolds with product structures and their properties.
problem Investigating statistical manifolds with almost product structures.
method Proving properties of para-Kähler-like statistical manifolds and deriving properties of statistical submersions compatible with almost product structures.
result The statistical structure of a para-Kähler-like statistical manifold of constant curvature is a Hessian structure.
The paper introduces a statistical version of contact CR-product for Sasakian statistical manifolds.
problem Characterizing geometric properties of contact CR-submanifolds in Sasakian statistical manifolds.
method Characterization of integrability of invariant and anti-invariant distributions, development of results on specific types of contact CR submanifolds, introduction of statistical contact CR-product.
result Introduction of a statistical version of contact CR-product for Sasakian statistical manifolds.
The Bonnet theorem is proven for statistical manifolds.
problem Locally embeddable statistical manifolds in flat spaces.
method Using statistical embedding and the Gauss--Codazzi--Ricci equations.
result Statistical manifolds with specific tensor properties are locally embeddable to flat statistical manifolds.
Enhances power of covariance matrix tests for high-dimensional data.
problem Testing large covariance matrices in high-dimensional data.
method Proposes a new Fisher's combined probability test for quadratic form and maximum form statistics.
result Boosts power against more general alternatives.
This paper simplifies computing higher-order U-statistics efficiently.
problem The inefficiency of computing higher-order U-statistics in practice. method Decomposition, connection to Einstein summation, and treewidth-based complexity estimate.
result A new, more efficient algorithm to compute U-statistics. This paper studies the geometry of immersions into statistical manifolds. A necessary and sufficient condition is obtained for statistical manifold structures to be dual to each other for a non-degenerate equiaffine immersion. Then we obtain conditions for realizing an n-dimensional statistical manifold in an (n+1)-dim…
This work uses statistical mechanics to explain AI learning.
problem Understanding the statistical principles behind AI learning.
method Starting from sample concentration behaviors, the study applies statistical mechanics principles to AI and machine learning.
result Exponential families and statistical quantities are key in AI and machine learning.
Author presents the second variational formula for statistical biharmonic maps.
problem Developing a formula for statistical biharmonic maps.
method Introduced the second variational formula for the statistical bi-energy functional.
result The second variational formula can be represented using Hessian curvature in Hessian manifolds.
New statistics are introduced that maintain the Fisher metric structure closely, akin to sufficient statistics.
problem Maintaining the Fisher metric structure in statistical models.
method Characterizing statistics that maintain the Fisher metric structure bi-Lipschitz equivalently.
result Characterized statistics that preserve the Fisher metric structure closely.
Study CR-statistical submanifolds in holomorphic statistical spaces.
problem Characterize CR-statistical submanifolds and their properties.
method Optimization technique to relate Ricci curvature and mean curvature.
result Established relationship between Ricci curvature and mean curvature.
Lightlike hypersurfaces of a statistical manifold are studied. It is shown that a lightlike hypersurface of a statistical manifold is not a statistical manifold with respect to the induced connections, but the screen distribution has a canonical statistical structure. Some relations between induced geometric objects wi…
Proves Gerber statistic is always non-negative.
problem Verifying the positive semi-definiteness of Gerber statistic.
method Analytical proof of both forms of Gerber statistic.
result Gerber statistic is positive semi-definite.
This paper deals with the applications of an optimization method on submanifolds, that is, geometric inequalities can be considered as optimization problems. In this regard, we obtain optimal Casorati inequalities and Chen-Ricci inequality for a statistical submanifold in a statistical warped product manifold of type $…
New statistical manifolds derived from identity map biharmonicity.
problem Deriving new statistical manifolds from identity map biharmonicity.
method Statistical biharmonicity of identity maps, semi-equiaffine condition, constant curvature.
result Determined statistical structures of new class of manifolds.
Paper develops risk statistics for portfolios considering regulator-based risk.
problem Traditional risk statistics fail to describe regulator-based risk.
method Develop dual representation for regulator-based risk statistics.
result Derived dual representation for regulator-based risk statistics.
Active inference framework improves U-statistic estimation efficiency.
problem Costly acquisition of labels for U-statistics. method Active inference framework with optimal sampling rule.
result Substantial gains in estimation efficiency over baseline methods.
Sharp inequalities and solitons studied in statistical submersions.
problem Understanding geometric properties of statistical submersions.
method Proving sharp inequalities and establishing geometrical properties of statistical submersions.
result Characterization of fibers as Ricci-Bourguignon solitons with conformal vector field.
Survey of statistical queries and their applications.
problem Understanding statistical queries and their applications.
method Exploration of statistical queries model, definitions, and connections to learnability.
result Connections to learnability and applications in optimization, evolvability, and differential privacy.
Introduces generalized almost statistical convergence and its properties.
problem Developing a new convergence concept for sequences.
method Introducing generalized almost statistical convergence and proving its properties.
result Existence of a GAS convergent sequence that is neither statistical nor almost convergent.