A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
We introduce nonlinear higher-order label spreading for semi-supervised learning.
Study analyzes price response and spread impact in foreign exchange markets.
Pairs trading is a market-neutral strategy that exploits historical correlation between stocks to achieve statistical arbitrage. Existing pairs-trading algorithms in the literature require rather restrictive assumptions on the underlying stochastic stock-price processes and the so-called spread function. In contrast to…
Paper models COVID-19 spread as spatio-temporal point processes.
We study the relationship between price spread, volatility and trading volume. We find that spread forms as a result of interplay between order liquidity and order impact. When trading volume is small adding more liquidity helps improve price accuracy and reduce spread, but after some point additional liquidity begins …
GPR models epidemic spread on logarithmic scale.
A new model predicts bid-ask spread dynamics in financial markets.
Paper models and forecasts intra-day electricity price spreads.
New method improves transfer and robustness of supervised contrastive learning.
Infectious diseases are studied to understand their spreading mechanisms, to evaluate control strategies and to predict the risk and course of future outbreaks. Because people only interact with a small number of individuals, and because the structure of these interactions matters for spreading processes, the pairwise …
Bid-ask spread is taken as an important measure of the financial market liquidity. In this article, we study the dynamics of the spread return and the spread volatility of four liquid stocks in the Chinese stock market, including the memory effect and the multifractal nature. By investigating the autocorrelation functi…
This paper formulates dynamic density functions, based upon skewed-t and similar representations, to model and forecast electricity price spreads between different hours of the day. This supports an optimal day ahead storage and discharge schedule, and thereby facilitates a bidding strategy for a merchant arbitrage fac…
New formula for efficient spread option pricing in copula markets.
CCC clusters with controlled spread, outperforming standard methods.
The paper uses regression models to predict COVID-19 spread and its stock market impact.
The paper prices energy spread options using a complex stochastic model.
A new model explains relative spreads between economies using dynamic Nelson-Siegel and functional regression.
AXI assesses bank funding costs transparently, improving loan pricing and reducing financial risk.
The paper explains how to construct a credit spread curve from bond prices.
We observe the effects of the three different events that cause spread changes in the order book, namely trades, deletions and placement of limit orders. By looking at the frequencies of the relative amounts of price changing events, we discover that deletions of orders open the bid-ask spread of a stock more often tha…
Statistical properties of order-driven double-auction markets with Bid-Ask spread are investigated through the dynamical quantities such as response function. We first attempt to utilize the so-called {\it Madhavan-Richardson-Roomans model} (MRR for short) to simulate the stochastic process of the price-change in empir…
Paper forecasts recession indicators using yield spread models.
This paper studies a valuation framework for financial contracts subject to reference and counterparty default risks with collateralization requirement. We propose a fixed point approach to analyze the mark-to-market contract value with counterparty risk provision, and show that it is a unique bounded and continuous fi…
We derive the price of a spread option based on two assets which follow a bivariate volatility modulated Volterra process dynamics. Such a price dynamics is particularly relevant in energy markets, modelling for example the spot price of power and gas. Volatility modulated Volterra processes are in general not semimart…
For an investor with constant absolute risk aversion and a long horizon, who trades in a market with constant investment opportunities and small proportional transaction costs, we obtain explicitly the optimal investment policy, its implied welfare, liquidity premium, and trading volume. We identify these quantities as…
Spread options are a fundamental class of derivative contract written on multiple assets, and are widely used in a range of financial markets. There is a long history of approximation methods for computing such products, but as yet there is no preferred approach that is accurate, efficient and flexible enough to apply …
It has been suggested that marked point processes might be good candidates for the modelling of financial high-frequency data. A special class of point processes, Hawkes processes, has been the subject of various investigations in the financial community. In this paper, we propose to enhance a basic zero-intelligence o…
Geodesics on hyperbolic surfaces become evenly spread over time.
Custom loss functions improve accuracy of wildfire rate of spread forecasts.
Study optimal semi-static hedging for illiquid markets using dynamic cash and static quoted derivatives.
We show that the cost of market orders and the profit of infinitesimal market-making or -taking strategies can be expressed in terms of directly observable quantities, namely the spread and the lag-dependent impact function. Imposing that any market taking or liquidity providing strategies is at best marginally profita…
We investigate the position of the Buchen-Kelly density in a family of entropy maximising densities which all match European call option prices for a given maturity observed in the market. Using the Legendre transform which links the entropy function and the cumulant generating function, we show that it is both the uni…
Study characterizes spike deconvolution basin for noisy data.
Predicting registration error can be useful for evaluation of registration procedures, which is important for the adoption of registration techniques in the clinic. In addition, quantitative error prediction can be helpful in improving the registration quality. The task of predicting registration error is demanding due…
We study the point of transition between complete and incomplete financial models thanks to Dirichlet Forms methods. We apply recent techniques, developped by Bouleau, to hedging procedures in order to perturbate parameters and stochastic processes, in the case of a volatility parameter fixed but uncertain for traders;…
We show that the statistics of spreads in real order books is characterized by an intrinsic asymmetry due to discreteness effects for even or odd values of the spread. An analysis of data from the NYSE order book points out that traders' strategies contribute to this asymmetry. We also investigate this phenomenon in th…
Modeling social network activity through user and topic interaction.
Paper proposes decision-theoretic approach to combat wildfires.
The paper uses stochastic control to analyze interest rate markets with roll-over risk.
Model shows phase transitions in asset pricing with market maker incentives.
Proves resurgent nature of a series solution to deformed Painlevé I equation.
Neural networks model COVID-19 spread with partial isolation data.
The paper uses moment matching method for pricing spread options under Lévy models.
We give a detailed account of correlations between credit sector/quality and treasury curve factors, using the robust framework of the Barclays POINT Global Risk Model. Consistent with earlier studies, we find a strong negative correlation between sector spreads and rate shifts. However, we also observe that the correl…
We explain a persistent cost-of-carry spread in EUA market and suggest ECB policy change.
Enhances inference of spreading processes using neural-network priors.
Deconvolution microscopy has been extensively used to improve the resolution of the widefield fluorescent microscopy. Conventional approaches, which usually require the point spread function (PSF) measurement or blind estimation, are however computationally expensive. Recently, CNN based approaches have been explored a…
The utility-based pricing of defaultable bonds in the case of stochastic intensity models of default risk is discussed. The Hamilton-Jacobi- Bellman (HJB) equations for the value functions is derived. A finite difference method is used to solve this problem. The yield-spreads for both buyer and seller are extracted. Th…