Selective planning with imperfect models reduces harmful effects of model inadequacy.
problem Harmful effects of using an imperfect model in reinforcement learning.
method Selective planning with heteroscedastic regression to estimate predictive uncertainty from model inadequacy.
result Effective selective planning requires considering both parameter uncertainty and model inadequacy.
Unified framework for planning under uncertainty using variational inference.
problem Planning under uncertainty with separate objectives for exploration and exploitation.
method Variational inference on a generative model augmented with priors.
result EFE-based planning emerges as variational inference, enabling scalable, resource-aware policies.
Enhanced route planning with probabilistic prediction and uncertainty sets.
problem Improving route planning reliability under uncertainty.
method CQR-GAE model integrating conformal prediction and uncertainty sets.
result Significantly outperforms baseline methods in real-world traffic scenarios.
Study optimal investment under uncertain conditions.
problem Optimal investment in uncertain market conditions.
method Modelled Knightian uncertainty through multiple priors, solved using stochastic backward equations.
result Existence and uniqueness of optimal investment plan derived.
A major difficulty of solving continuous POMDPs is to infer the multi-modal distribution of the unobserved true states and to make the planning algorithm dependent on the perceived uncertainty. We cast POMDP filtering and planning problems as two closely related Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) processes, one over the real…
New method designs fairer transport plans with uncertainty.
problem Designing fair and balanced mass transport plans.
method Hierarchical fully probabilistic design (HFPD) for transport plans.
result Optimal hyperprior for transport plans with uncertain marginals.
Hybrid Bayesian-conformal framework improves uncertainty quantification in healthcare predictions.
problem Jointly satisfying distribution-free coverage guarantees and risk-adaptive precision in clinical decision-making.
method Integrates Bayesian hierarchical random forests with group-aware conformal calibration, using posterior uncertainties to weight conformity scores.
result Achieves target coverage (94.3% vs 95% target) with adaptive precision, 21% narrower intervals for low-uncertainty cases.
New algorithm for planning in observable POMDPs in quasi-polynomial time.
problem Planning in POMDPs is computationally hard.
method Assumption of well-separated distributions on states and observations leads to quasi-succinct descriptions of near-optimal policies.
result Quasipolynomial-time algorithm for planning in observable POMDPs.
Reinforcement learning and symbolic planning have both been used to build intelligent autonomous agents. Reinforcement learning relies on learning from interactions with real world, which often requires an unfeasibly large amount of experience. Symbolic planning relies on manually crafted symbolic knowledge, which may …
This work defines a complexity measure for BAMDP planning and introduces state abstraction for more efficient approximate planning.
problem The computational intractability of exact BAMDP planning solutions.
method Define a complexity measure for BAMDP planning, introduce state abstraction, and develop an approximate planning algorithm.
result Introduces a computationally tractable approximate planning algorithm using state abstraction.
Enhances PlaNet for better planning in uncertain environments.
problem Improving deep planning networks for partially observable environments.
method Incorporates Bayesian inference to handle uncertainty in latent models and action candidates.
result Consistently improves asymptotic performance on continuous control tasks.
This paper uses robust optimization to analyze supply chain resilience.
problem Supply chain resilience analysis of multi-modal logistics networks.
method Robust optimization with budget-of-uncertainty.
result Interactive effects of network size, disruption scale, and degree on resilience.
Proposes a framework for automated radiation therapy treatment planning with uncertainty quantification.
problem Quantifying uncertainties in dose-related quantities for automated treatment planning.
method Three-step pipeline: feature extraction, dose statistic prediction, and dose mimicking.
result Probabilistic treatment plans agree better with clinical counterparts than non-probabilistic ones.
Paper identifies a shared toolkit of strategies for risk management across fields.
problem Uncertainty and risk management in various fields.
method Systematic identification and categorization of 110 strategies.
result RDOT: Risk-reducing Design and Operations Toolkit provides versatile responses to uncertainty.
This work tackles maintenance planning with deep reinforcement learning under uncertainty.
problem Optimizing inspection and maintenance policies in deteriorating environments with incomplete information and constraints.
method Joint framework of constrained POMDPs and multi-agent DRL addressing challenges of state/action space, history, uncertainty, and constraints.
result The proposed framework outperforms existing methods in resource and risk-aware decision-making.
Paper proposes methods to help autonomous vehicles adapt to unexpected driving scenarios.
problem Autonomous vehicles struggle with unexpected driving conditions.
method Robust imitative planning (RIP) and adaptive robust imitative planning (AdaRIP) methods to detect and adapt to distribution shifts.
result Methods outperform current state-of-the-art approaches in nuScenes prediction challenge.
Model based predictions of future trajectories of a dynamical system often suffer from inaccuracies, forcing model based control algorithms to re-plan often, thus being computationally expensive, suboptimal and not reliable. In this work, we propose a model agnostic method for estimating the uncertainty of a model?s pr…
Develops a neural surrogate for proton dose calculation using Monte Carlo dropout uncertainty.
problem Computational demand in proton therapy workflows requiring repeated evaluations.
method Integrates Monte Carlo dropout into a neural network surrogate for fast, differentiable dose predictions and uncertainty quantification.
result Shows significant speedups over MC while retaining uncertainty information.
This paper offers a methodological contribution at the intersection of machine learning and operations research. Namely, we propose a methodology to quickly predict tactical solutions to a given operational problem. In this context, the tactical solution is less detailed than the operational one but it has to be comput…
This work improves motion planning for quadcopters by learning and reasoning about controller performance.
problem Improving motion planning for quadcopters with safety margins and execution reliability.
method Introspective learning and reasoning to correct execution bias and improve collision checking.
result Substantial reduction in safety margins for motion actions, leading to safer execution.
Estimates of predictive uncertainty are important for accurate model-based planning and reinforcement learning. However, predictive uncertainties---especially ones derived from modern deep learning systems---can be inaccurate and impose a bottleneck on performance. This paper explores which uncertainties are needed for…
Bayesian segmentation and uncertainty estimation improve 3D model accuracy for factory planning.
problem Generating accurate 3D models from outdated and incomplete 2D data.
method Bayesian neural network for point cloud segmentation and entropy-based uncertainty estimation.
result Bayesian segmentation network significantly improves model accuracy and object identification.
Bayesian neural networks improve uncertainty estimation in 3D point cloud segmentation for factory planning.
problem Improving uncertainty estimation in 3D point cloud segmentation for factory planning.
method Proposed fully Bayesian and approximate Bayesian neural networks for point cloud segmentation.
result Superior model performance and improved segmentation results with uncertainty incorporation.
STOIC improves energy demand forecasting with reliable uncertainty estimates.
problem Accurate point forecasts alone are insufficient for energy systems; reliable uncertainty estimates are needed.
method Integrates graph-based forecasting with tabular foundation models for zero-shot calibration of spatial-temporal residuals.
result STOIC delivers more reliable and robust uncertainty estimates for complex graph-structured energy time series.
Accurately predicting future behaviors of surrounding vehicles is an essential capability for autonomous vehicles in order to plan safe and feasible trajectories. The behaviors of others, however, are full of uncertainties. Both rational and irrational behaviors exist, and the autonomous vehicles need to be aware of th…
New algorithm minimizes worst-case regret in uncertain, time-varying dynamics.
problem Model-based policy learning in uncertain, time-varying dynamics.
method Planning regret metric and iterative algorithm for minimizing it.
result Empirical evidence shows the proposed algorithm outperforms existing methods.
Survey of integrating planning and learning in model-based reinforcement learning.
problem Sequential decision making in AI, formalized as MDP optimization.
method Systematic coverage of dynamics model learning and planning-learning integration.
result Broad conceptual overview of model-based reinforcement learning.
We consider large-scale Markov decision processes (MDPs) with parameter uncertainty, under the robust MDP paradigm. Previous studies showed that robust MDPs, based on a minimax approach to handle uncertainty, can be solved using dynamic programming for small to medium sized problems. However, due to the "curse of dimen…
New method for predicting paths of unpredictable objects with high confidence.
problem Need for dependable uncertainty estimates in motion planning with diverse unpredictable objects.
method Blend online conformal prediction, multiple time series techniques, and heteroscedasticity addressing.
result Simultaneous forecasting bands that cover entire paths with high probability.
Paper proposes a new method for predicting DER adoption with hierarchical guarantees.
problem Accurately predicting DER adoption in electric grids with uncertainty and spatial disparity.
method Multivariate Hawkes process for modeling DER adoption dynamics and split conformal prediction algorithm for hierarchical validity.
result Empirical evaluation shows superior predictive accuracy and uncertainty calibration compared to existing methods.
The paper tackles model misspecification in reinforcement learning through a bootstrapped neural network and error correction.
problem Model misspecification in reinforcement learning environments.
method Proposes a bootstrapped multi-headed neural network to learn model distributions and a global error correction filter.
result Demonstrates increased performance and stability in model accuracy and planning algorithm use.
Video prediction models combined with planning algorithms have shown promise in enabling robots to learn to perform many vision-based tasks through only self-supervision, reaching novel goals in cluttered scenes with unseen objects. However, due to the compounding uncertainty in long horizon video prediction and poor s…
Framework for robust control in cooperative systems with uncertain common noise.
problem Optimizing collective behavior of agents in the presence of uncertain common noise.
method Proposes a robust mean-field control framework and proves existence of optimal controls.
result Existence of optimal open-loop controls linked to a lifted robust Markov decision problem.
Bayesian deep learning improves maintenance planning uncertainty quantification.
problem Estimating the remaining useful life of physical systems with uncertainty quantification.
method Stein variational gradient descent for training Bayesian neural networks.
result Bayesian deep learning models trained via Stein variational gradient descent outperform other methods in convergence speed and predictive performance.
We propose a reinforcement learning framework for discrete environments in which an agent makes both strategic and tactical decisions. The former manifests itself through the use of value function, while the latter is powered by a tree search planner. These tools complement each other. The planning module performs a lo…
We study learning control in an online reset-free lifelong learning scenario, where mistakes can compound catastrophically into the future and the underlying dynamics of the environment may change. Traditional model-free policy learning methods have achieved successes in difficult tasks due to their broad flexibility, …
Gaussian Processes (GPs) are widely employed in control and learning because of their principled treatment of uncertainty. However, tracking uncertainty for iterative, multi-step predictions in general leads to an analytically intractable problem. While approximation methods exist, they do not come with guarantees, mak…
Brain uses synaptic failure to sample from posterior distributions.
problem Bayesian inference in the brain's probabilistic computations.
method Adapting synaptic failure to sample posterior predictive distributions.
result Synaptic failure enables sampling of complete posterior predictive distributions.
Paper tackles robust offline RL for non-Markovian processes, improving efficiency and applicability.
problem Learning robust policies for non-Markovian decision processes with limited offline data.
method Proposes a novel algorithm with dataset distillation and LCB design for robust values, derived new dual forms, and introduces concentrability coefficients.
result Proves polynomial sample efficiency for finding ε-optimal robust policies.
Bounded rationality, that is, decision-making and planning under resource limitations, is widely regarded as an important open problem in artificial intelligence, reinforcement learning, computational neuroscience and economics. This paper offers a consolidated presentation of a theory of bounded rationality based on i…
Agent learns to navigate uncertain 3D maps using a hybrid planner.
problem Planning in 3D environments with uncertain topological maps.
method Hierarchical strategy combining graph planner and local policy, data-driven learning with neural network.
result Machine learning can overcome missing information in probabilistic topological maps.
This work proposes the use of Bayesian approximations of uncertainty from deep learning in a robot planner, showing that this produces more cautious actions in safety-critical scenarios. The case study investigated is motivated by a setup where an aerial robot acts as a "scout" for a ground robot. This is useful when t…
A planning approach learns skills from interactions, balancing exploration and exploitation.
problem Learning robust high-level skills in noisy environments with unknown pre-conditions.
method Formulates skills as high-level policies, learns plans via bandit problems, balances exploration and exploitation.
result A planner capable of learning robust high-level skills in high-dimensional state spaces.
Study improves traffic prediction intervals for minor roads.
problem Uncertainty in traffic data for underrepresented minor roads.
method Quantile Random Forest with PCA for interval prediction.
result Achieved 88.22% interval coverage and Winkler Score of 7,468.47.
We develop a tractable and flexible approach for incorporating side information into dynamic optimization under uncertainty. The proposed framework uses predictive machine learning methods (such as k-nearest neighbors, kernel regression, and random forests) to weight the relative importance of various data-driven unc…
New method reduces memory usage for Bayesian inverse problems on large grids.
problem Solving large-scale linear inverse problems with Gaussian process priors.
method Implicit representation of posterior covariance matrices, sequential disintegrations of Gaussian measures.
result Significant reduction in uncertainty for high-density regions estimation.
New framework guides resource usage to achieve sublinear regret in adversarial settings.
problem Achieving sublinear regret in online decision making with changing reward and cost distributions.
method General primal-dual methods guided by spending plans that ensure balanced resource usage.
result Achieves sublinear regret with respect to spending plans that balance resource usage.
Study motion planning for points avoiding obstacles in a plane.
problem Avoiding collisions for multiple points in a plane with unknown obstacles.
method Algebraic and topological tools for motion planning.
result New topological complexity for planar motion planning.