The problem of time-series clustering is considered in the case where each data-point is a sample generated by a piecewise stationary ergodic process. Stationary processes are perhaps the most general class of processes considered in non-parametric statistics and allow for arbitrary long-range dependence between variab…
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48 results for “piecewise stationarity”
Master algorithm fails to detect non-stationarity in practical settings.
problem Non-Stationary Reinforcement Learning without prior knowledge.
method Master algorithm tested under various conditions, including piecewise stationary multi-armed bandits.
result Master's non-stationarity detection is ineffective for practical horizons, leading to performance similar to random restarting.
DAL enhances black-box bandit algorithms for non-stationary environments.
problem Non-stationary environments in bandit problems.
method DAL combines any stationary bandit algorithm with a change detector.
result DAL consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods in various non-stationary scenarios.
The Bivariate Dynamic Contagion Processes (BDCP) are a broad class of bivariate point processes characterized by the intensities as a general class of piecewise deterministic Markov processes. The BDCP describes a rich dynamic structure where the system is under the influence of both external and internal factors model…
Data-driven Piecewise Affine Decision Rules for Stochastic Programming with Covariate Informationmath.OC
Paper proposes a new method for SP with covariates using PADR and ERM.
problem Stochastic programming with covariate information.
method Empirical risk minimization (ERM) with nonconvex piecewise affine decision rules (PADR).
result The method provides theoretical consistency and computational tractability for nonconvex SP problems.
Study adapts combinatorial semi-bandit for piecewise stationary, causally related rewards.
problem Nonstationary environment with changing base arms' distributions and causal relationships.
method Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) algorithm with change-point detector and group restart strategy.
result Regret upper bound reflecting effects of structural and distribution changes.
New algorithms minimize dynamic regret in non-stationary online learning.
problem Universal dynamic regret minimization under exp-concave and smooth losses.
method Strongly Adaptive algorithms with a path variational based on second order differences of the comparator sequence.
result Achieve a dynamic regret of , optimal modulo dependencies.
The statistical significance of multivariate Hawkes processes fitted to limit order book dataq-fin.TR
Hawkes processes have seen a number of applications in finance, due to their ability to capture event clustering behaviour typically observed in financial systems. Given a calibrated Hawkes process, of concern is the statistical fit to empirical data, particularly for the accurate quantification of self- and mutual-exc…
TSFMs embed non-stationary time series data, revealing specific types of changes.
problem Understanding non-stationarity in TSFMs' embedding spaces.
method Examined mean shifts, variance changes, linear trends, and persistence in TSFMs.
result Different TSFMs exhibit distinct failure modes in detecting non-stationarity.
Deep RL agents suffer from transient non-stationarity, which ITER mitigates.
problem Transient non-stationarity in deep RL agents affects generalization.
method Iterated Relearning (ITER) transfers knowledge between networks to reduce non-stationarity.
result ITER improves deep RL agents' performance on generalization benchmarks.
TimeBridge addresses non-stationarity in long-term time series forecasting.
problem Non-stationarity in multivariate time series leads to spurious regressions and obscures long-term relationships.
method TimeBridge segments series into patches, applying Integrated Attention for short-term non-stationarity and Cointegrated Attention for long-term cointegration.
result TimeBridge achieves state-of-the-art performance in both short-term and long-term forecasting.
This paper compares stationarity in Bitcoin and S&P500 price indices.
problem Comparing stationarity in cryptocurrency and traditional stock market indices.
method Wide sense stationarity defined; Wiener-Khinchin Theorem applied; stationarity achieved through detrending and normalization of price returns.
result S&P500 price return achieves stationarity for 28 years with specific normalization windows, while Bitcoin's stationarity varies by segment and volatility.
Unsupervised learning of observation functions in state-space models by nonparametric moment methodsstat.ML
Method estimates observation functions in state-space models without supervision.
problem Unsupervised learning of non-invertible observation functions in nonlinear state-space models.
method Nonparametric generalized moment method using constrained regression.
result Estimates function space of identifiability from state process.
We use partial actions, as formalized by Exel, to construct various commensurating actions. We use this in the context of groups piecewise preserving a geometric structure, and we interpret the transfixing property of these commensurating actions as the existence of a model for which the group acts preserving the geome…
Investigates stability of piecewise flat Ricci flow using analysis and simulations.
problem Stability of piecewise flat Ricci flow.
method Linear stability analysis and numerical simulations.
result Adaptations avoided numerical instability and led to convergence to smooth solutions.
The paper explores various stationarity concepts in non-smooth optimization.
problem Understanding stationarity in non-smooth optimization problems.
method Introduction and discussion of different stationarity concepts for non-convex non-smooth functions.
result Clarification of the relationship among different stationarity concepts and their relevance in iterative methods.
Neural networks can represent complex piecewise functions efficiently.
problem Representing continuous piecewise affine functions with neural networks.
method Two hidden layers with ReLU activation, neurons for pieces.
result CPA functions can be represented by a neural network with linear size.
Theorem proves integrability for piecewise-smooth distributions.
problem Integrability of piecewise-smooth distributions.
method Generalizations of Frobenius integrability theorem.
result Sufficient criteria for complete integrability with bi-Lipschitz coordinates.
Improved stock return prediction model handles noise and non-stationarity.
problem Predicting stock returns with robustness to noise and non-stationarity.
method Extended AROW algorithm to handle synchronous mini-batch updates and applied it to stock return prediction.
result The new model outperforms classical approaches in backtesting on S\&P500 stocks.
This paper considers regression tasks involving high-dimensional multivariate processes whose structure is dependent on some {known} graph topology. We put forth a new definition of time-vertex wide-sense stationarity, or joint stationarity for short, that goes beyond product graphs. Joint stationarity helps by reducin…
Piecewise flat approximations for curvature in Euclidean and non-Euclidean spaces.
problem Approximating local extrinsic curvature on discrete manifolds.
method Constructing discrete curvature forms on piecewise flat manifolds, using weighted sums of hinge angles.
result Converges to smooth curvature values as mesh refinement occurs, favorably comparing with other discrete approaches.
Study geometrically characterizes piecewise circular curves with decreasing curvature.
problem Characterizing piecewise circular curves with decreasing curvature.
method Introducing moduli spaces and relating them to Legendrian polygons.
result Proves the moduli space contains a connected component homeomorphic to the Fock-Goncharov space of positive flags.
Center and torsion of a quotient of the group of piecewise linear homeomorphisms of the real linemath.GT
The center of a quotient group of piecewise linear homeomorphisms is trivial.
problem Understanding the structure of a specific group of homeomorphisms.
method Analyzing a quotient of piecewise linear homeomorphisms of the real line.
result The center of the quotient group is trivial.
GraN-GAN normalizes gradients for better GAN performance.
problem Improving image generation in GANs with piecewise linear discriminators.
method Piecewise Gradient Normalization (GraN) for input-dependent normalization.
result Significant performance gains in image generation across various datasets.
The paper extends a variance gamma model to quadratic functions, reducing arbitrage and computational costs.
problem Creating an arbitrage-free interpolation for option pricing models.
method Generalizing the local variance gamma model to a piecewise quadratic local variance function.
result The quadratic model results in an arbitrage-free interpolation of class C3, reducing knots and computational cost.
Generative Bayesian Computation improves surrogates for expensive simulations.
problem Limitations of Gaussian process surrogates in handling complex, non-stationary data.
method Generative Bayesian Computation via Implicit Quantile Networks (IQNs).
result Generative Bayesian Computation outperforms traditional Gaussian process methods across various benchmarks.
This article provides an attempt to extend concepts from the theory of Riemannian manifolds to piecewise linear spaces. In particular we propose an analogue of the Ricci tensor, which we give the name of an Einstein vector field. On a given set of piecewise linear spaces we define and discuss (normalized) Ricci flows. …
We show that all finite-dimensional resolvable generalized manifolds with the piecewise disjoint arc-disk property are codimension one manifold factors. We then show how the piecewise disjoint arc-disk property and other general position properties that detect codimension one manifold factors are related. We also note …
PARC uses piecewise linear predictors for regression and classification.
problem Multivariate regression and classification problems.
method Alternates between ridge and softmax regression, and cluster assignment based on accuracy and separability.
result Converges to a local minimum in a finite number of steps.
A piecewise flat Finsler metric on a triangulated surface is a metric whose restriction to any triangle is a flat triangle in some Minkowski space with straight edges. One of the main purposes of this work is to study the properties of geodesics on a piecewise flat Finsler surface, especially when it meets a vertex…
Neural network models improve survival analysis with reduced computation time.
problem Limited expressiveness of standard survival models.
method Piecewise neural network models of hazard and density functions.
result Models outperform state-of-the-art models with less computation time.
Study classifies stock price data into stationary and non-stationary periods for mechanical trading.
problem Classifying stock price fluctuations into stationary and non-stationary periods for trading.
method Stationarity analysis using KMO-Langevin theory and trend-based indicators for stationary periods, oscillator-based indicators for non-stationary periods.
result Back testing confirms the strategy is a safe trading strategy with small maximum drawdown.
New GP model estimates piecewise continuous functions.
problem Piecewise continuous regression functions in scientific and engineering applications.
method Local Gaussian process model with partitioned local data and joint estimation of boundaries.
result Superior performance over conventional GP models in estimating piecewise regression functions.
Study large deviation in stationarized fully lifted blirp interpolation.
problem Understanding atypical solutions in random optimization problems.
method Large deviation theory applied to fully lifted blirp interpolation.
result Elegant relations uncovered for fundamental interpolating parameters.
Paper proposes algorithms to accurately identify breakpoints in piecewise regression.
problem Identifying accurate breakpoints in piecewise regression for better data fitting.
method Proposes novel greedy algorithms to minimize error and determine optimal breakpoints.
result The proposed algorithms outperform existing methods in accuracy and efficiency.
DARLING tackles non-stationary RL with guarantees, improving dynamic regret.
problem Non-stationary reinforcement learning in unknown change points.
method Detection Augmented Reinforcement Learning (DARLING) for tabular and linear MDPs.
result DARLING matches minimax lower bounds in tabular and linear MDPs.
Study non-stationary bandits with resource constraints.
problem Maximize reward in a non-stationary environment with resource constraints.
method Propose new non-stationarity measure and use primal-dual analysis.
result Upper and lower bounds for non-stationary BwK problem.
Simplicial, piecewise-flat discretizations of manifolds provide a clear path towards curvature analysis on discrete geometries and for solutions of PDE's on manifolds of complex topologies. In this manuscript we review and expand on discrete exterior calculus methods using hybrid domains. We then analyze the geometric …
Global approximation for piecewise linear paths via signatures.
problem Global approximation theorems for piecewise linear paths.
method Using signatures of piecewise linear paths and their density in -norms.
result Linear functionals of signatures are dense in -norms under an integrability condition.
We prove that every piecewise linear manifold of dimension up to four on which a finite group acts by piecewise linear homeomorphisms admits a compatible smooth structure with respect to which the group acts smoothly. This solves a challenge posed by Thurston in dimension three and confirms a conjecture by Kwasik and L…
The paper establishes a discrete uniformization theorem for surfaces with piecewise hyperbolic metrics.
problem Finding decorated piecewise hyperbolic metrics with prescribed combinatorial curvature.
method Introduced combinatorial α-Ricci flow with surgery to handle potential singularities and prove longtime existence and convergence.
result Existence of decorated piecewise hyperbolic metrics with prescribed combinatorial α-curvature.
New approach limits regret in non-stationary bandits.
problem Understanding worst case regret in time-varying bandits.
method Belief inertia argument to resist new evidence after changes.
result Linear worst case regret for classical and restarting algorithms.
The paper proves a theorem for discretizing Gaussian curvature on surfaces.
problem Discretizing Gaussian curvature on surfaces with nonpositive Euler number.
method Discrete conformal theory and variational principles with constraints.
result Each decorated piecewise Euclidean metric on surfaces with nonpositive Euler number is discrete conformal to a metric with a specific discrete curvature constant.
Neural population activity often exhibits rich variability and temporal structure. This variability is thought to arise from single-neuron stochasticity, neural dynamics on short time-scales, as well as from modulations of neural firing properties on long time-scales, often referred to as "non-stationarity". To better …
First explicit isometric immersion of a flat Klein bottle in 3D space.
problem Finding an isometric embedding of a Klein bottle in 3D.
method Piecewise-linear map from a Klein bottle to Euclidean 3-space.
result Explicit numerical data for a flat Klein bottle isometrically immersed in 3D.
A piecewise flat manifold is a triangulated manifold given a geometry by specifying edge lengths (lengths of 1-simplices) and specifying that all simplices are Euclidean. We consider the variation of angles of piecewise flat manifolds as the geometry varies in a particular way, which we call a conformal variation. This…
Paper tackles uncertainty prediction for deep sequential regression.
problem Challenges in generating accurate uncertainty estimates for deep recurrent networks.
method Flexible method that generates symmetric and asymmetric uncertainty estimates without stationarity assumptions.
result Outperforms competitive baselines on both drift and non-drift scenarios.
Framework isolates causal effects from time series data, improving accuracy under non-stationarity and autocorrelation.
problem Causal inference in non-stationary, autocorrelated time series data.
method Decomposes time series into trend, seasonal, and residual components; performs component-specific causal analysis.
result Framework more accurately recovers ground-truth causal structure than state-of-the-art baselines, especially under strong non-stationarity and temporal autocorrelation.