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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

169,051 papers · 148 categories

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8.3%16.7%25.0%33.3% · Jan 199319922001200920182026
48 results for physical load

New method predicts heat load in thermal grids using latent variables.

problem Predicting heat load in district energy systems.
method Combines nominal model for outdoor temperature with latent variable model for residual heat load.
result Proposed method achieves better prediction accuracy than artificial neural networks.

New deep learning model optimizes energy use in buildings.

problem Optimizing energy use and comfort in large buildings.
method Transformer-based metamodel trained with simulation and sensor data, calibrated with CMA-ES, optimized with multi-objective algorithms.
result Optimal settings reduce energy loads while maintaining thermal comfort and air quality.

PIML uses physics equations in machine learning for better forecasting.

problem Forecasting time series data with physical constraints.
method Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) and kernel methods.
result PIML improves forecasting accuracy with physical constraints.

This paper proposes a submodular load clustering method for transmission-level load areas.

problem Traditional load analysis challenges with new electricity usage patterns.
method Robust Principal Component Analysis (R-PCA) and submodular cluster center selection.
result The proposed method efficiently clusters load areas and demonstrates effectiveness in PJM load data.

This paper analyzes load predictability at different aggregation levels and improves forecasting accuracy.

problem Challenges in short-term load forecasting, especially at low aggregation levels.
method Characterized SME and residential loads, quantified predictability using approximate entropy, compared various STLF techniques.
result Improved forecasting accuracy for low-aggregation loads, validated with data processing techniques.

A new model uses sparse Gaussian processes to hedge electricity market risks.

problem Risk minimization in electricity markets due to non-storability and volatility.
method Coregionalized sparse Gaussian processes to model price and load correlations.
result The model outperforms traditional average-load strategies in hedging.

In (exploratory) factor analysis, the loading matrix is identified only up to orthogonal rotation. For identifiability, one thus often takes the loading matrix to be lower triangular with positive diagonal entries. In Bayesian inference, a standard practice is then to specify a prior under which the loadings are indepe…

2014-09-26abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper uses econometrics time series model with T-student Distribution for short-term load forecasting.

problem Accurate short-term load forecasting for optimizing electrical sources and protecting energy.
method Uses SARIMA-GARCH model with T-student Distribution to forecast electric load.
result The proposed model outperforms the ARIMA model with Normal Distribution.

We use online convex optimization (OCO) for setpoint tracking with uncertain, flexible loads. We consider full feedback from the loads, bandit feedback, and two intermediate types of feedback: partial bandit where a subset of the loads are individually observed and the rest are observed in aggregate, and Bernoulli feed…

2017-09-12abs ↗pdf ↗

This paper uses a diffusion model to forecast electrical loads with uncertainty.

problem Uncertainties in electrical load forecasting due to renewable energy and external events.
method Diffusion-based Seq2Seq structure for epistemic uncertainty and robust additive Cauchy distribution for aleatoric uncertainty.
result Ability to separate and quantify both types of uncertainties in load forecasting.

Paper presents a method for probabilistic load forecasting using adaptive online learning.

problem Inability to assess intrinsic uncertainties and capture dynamic changes in consumption patterns.
method Adaptive online learning of hidden Markov models for recursive parameter updates and sequential prediction.
result Significant improvement in performance compared to existing techniques across various scenarios.

Paper proposes dense average network for improved power load forecasting.

problem Improving power load forecasting accuracy to save millions for the power industry.
method Introduces dense average connection and constructs dense average network for power load forecasting.
result Proposed model outperforms existing methods on public datasets.

Paper proposes a framework for probabilistic load forecasting by integrating point forecasts.

problem Short-term load forecasting for power systems energy management.
method Two-stage framework: first stage for point forecasting, second stage for probabilistic forecasting using feature integration.
result Numerical results show effectiveness of the proposed approach in hour-ahead load forecasting.

A new method calculates risk loadings in classification ratemaking without subjective parameters.

problem Subjective risk loading parameters in classification ratemaking.
method Bootstrap method to calculate total risk premium, then determine risk loading parameters using quantile regression models.
result Risk premiums calculated by the new method reasonably differentiate different risk classes.

Deep learning improves weather modeling for electricity load forecasting.

problem Accurate load and renewable energy forecasting requires complex spatio-temporal weather modeling.
method Automated spatio-temporal feature extraction using deep neural networks.
result Deep learning outperforms traditional methods in French national load forecasting.

A method for selecting data for short-term load forecasting using Bayesian probabilistic models.

problem Lack of effective data selection techniques in power load forecasting.
method A fully automatic methodology based on a full Bayesian probabilistic model.
result The method improves the performance of load forecast models using real data.

Study finds cherry-picking load shaping strategies outperforms others in reducing grid CO2 emissions.

problem Lack of detailed counterfactual data makes it hard to assess load shaping strategies' effectiveness.
method Calibrated granular ERCOT simulations for counterfactual analysis of load shaping strategies.
result LMP-based load shaping outperforms other strategies in reducing grid CO2 emissions.

Adaptive probabilistic load forecasting improves performance in power systems.

problem Complexity of electricity load forecasting due to changing drivers and local generation.
method Adaptive probabilistic approach using Kalman filter and online gradient descent.
result Adaptive probabilistic forecasts improve performance in both point and probabilistic forecasting.

Due to limited metering infrastructure, distribution grids are currently challenged by observability issues. On the other hand, smart meter data, including local voltage magnitudes and power injections, are communicated to the utility operator from grid buses with renewable generation and demand-response programs. This…

2016-12-20abs ↗pdf ↗

Adaptive BO improves solder joint reliability by 3% with half the computational cost.

problem Improving solder joint reliability under thermomechanical loading.
method Adaptive Bayesian optimization with Gaussian process regression.
result Adaptive BO outperforms regular BO by 3% on average at any given computational budget.

Model uses GAMs to forecast hourly electricity load weeks to one year ahead.

problem Accurate mid-term hourly load forecasting for power plant operation and energy management.
method Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) with P-splines and autoregressive post-processing.
result Significantly enhanced forecasting accuracy compared to state-of-the-art methods.

We present a methodology for probabilistic load forecasting that is based on lasso (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) estimation. The model considered can be regarded as a bivariate time-varying threshold autoregressive(AR) process for the hourly electric load and temperature. The joint modeling approach…

2016-03-04abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper proposes a new method for probabilistic load forecasting using Bernstein-Polynomial Normalizing Flows.

problem High variability in short-term load forecasting at the low-voltage level due to fluctuating demand and increasing electrification.
method Flexible conditional density forecasting based on Bernstein polynomial normalizing flows with neural network control.
result Density predictions outperform traditional methods for 24h-ahead load forecasting.

FMOPF generates diverse near-optimal power flow solutions.

problem Generating diverse near-optimal power flow solutions for risk quantification.
method Decouples compression from generation through latent flow matching and explicitly models load-state coupling.
result FMOPF provides the most effective Newton-Raphson warm starts and lowest tail risk.