Optimal market making strategy for electronic markets with persistent order flows.
problem Market making on electronic markets with persistent order flows.
method Formulated as a stochastic control problem, characterized by viscosity solutions, and implemented numerically.
result Characterization of an optimal market making strategy.
Order flow in equity markets is remarkably persistent in the sense that order signs (to buy or sell) are positively autocorrelated out to time lags of tens of thousands of orders, corresponding to many days. Two possible explanations are herding, corresponding to positive correlation in the behavior of different invest…
In financial markets, the order flow, defined as the process assuming value one for buy market orders and minus one for sell market orders, displays a very slowly decaying autocorrelation function. Since orders impact prices, reconciling the persistence of the order flow with market efficiency is a subtle issue. A poss…
Given a compact Riemannian manifold, we prove a uniform Franks' lemma at second order for geodesic flows and apply the result in persistence theory.
Unified model explains market dynamics, linking order flow, volatility, and impact.
problem Understanding the dynamics of order flow, market impact, and volatility in financial markets.
method Proposes a microstructural model using Hawkes processes to distinguish core orders and reaction flow, and analyzes their scaling limits.
result Estimates the persistence parameter H0 and finds it consistent with market impact and volatility properties. This paper explains how predictable order flow can lead to Brownian motion in financial prices.
problem Why financial prices exhibit Brownian motion despite predictable order flow.
method Generalized Lillo-Mike-Farmer model to nonlinear price-impact dynamics, mapping to Lévy-walk model.
result Price dynamics remain diffusive under the square-root law, even with persistent order flow.
Paper develops a generative model using Wasserstein-2 loss.
problem Creating realistic data samples from limited data.
method Uses a distribution-dependent ODE with a gradient flow for W2 loss.
result The method converges to the true data distribution exponentially.
Paper proposes BOCPD for real-time order flow and market impact prediction.
problem Persistent order flow patterns in financial markets.
method Bayesian online change-point detection (BOCPD) with score-driven approach.
result Model outperforms existing models in predicting order flow and market impact.
Study reveals investor heterogeneity in Korean equity market cash flows.
problem Investor heterogeneity and its impact on market dynamics.
method Detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) on aggregated cash flows.
result Persistence in cash flows varies by investor type, with retail flows showing strong persistence.
We use a first-order energy quantity to prove a strengthened statement of uniqueness for the Ricci flow. One consequence of this statement is that if a complete solution on a noncompact manifold has uniformly bounded Ricci curvature, then its sectional curvature will remain bounded for a short time if it is bounded ini…
The paper predicts Bitcoin volatility using order flow images.
problem Predicting short-term volatility of Bitcoin prices.
method Transformed order flow data into images, trained CNN and ResNet models.
result Order flow representation with CNN achieves best performance, with RMSPE of 0.85+/-1.1.
Study non-Weinstein Liouville geometry via hyperbolic dynamics, proving rigidity results.
problem Characterize non-Weinstein Liouville geometry with persistent transverse skeleton.
method Anosov 3-flows, Liouville Interpolation Systems, non-singular partially hyperbolic flows, hyperbolic dynamics.
result Mitsumatsu's examples characterize 4D non-Weinstein Liouville geometry with 3D persistent transverse skeleton.
We study the long memory of order flow for each of three liquid currency pairs on a large electronic trading platform in the foreign exchange (FX) spot market. Due to the extremely high levels of market activity on the platform, and in contrast to existing empirical studies of other markets, our data enables us to perf…
High-value transactions between Australian banks are settled in the Reserve Bank Information and Transfer System (RITS) administered by the Reserve Bank of Australia. RITS operates on a real-time gross settlement (RTGS) basis and settles payments sourced from the SWIFT, the Austraclear, and the interbank transactions e…
The paper introduces a new ODE approach to improve Wasserstein GANs.
problem Improving Wasserstein GANs for better training results.
method Derives an ODE representing the gradient flow of Wasserstein-1 loss and proposes a new model W1-FE.
result W1-FE outperforms WGAN in training experiments across various dimensions.
The study examines order flow in financial markets using fractional Lévy stable motion.
problem Challenges in selecting the best models for financial time series data.
method Investigates order disbalance time series from the perspective of fractional Lévy stable motion.
result Orders exhibit stable anti-correlation for 18 randomly selected stocks.
We examine the fixed points to first-order RG flow of a non-linear sigma model with background metric, dilaton and tachyon fields. We show that on compact target spaces, the existence of fixed points with non-zero tachyon is linked to the sign of the second derivative of the tachyon potential V′′(T) (this is the anal…
Rotationally symmetric solutions persist after mean curvature flow starts from a double cone.
problem Understanding the symmetry of solutions to mean curvature flow.
method Analyzing solutions coming out of a double cone.
result Rotationally symmetric solutions persist.
We implement methods from computational homology to obtain a topological signal of singularity formation in a selection of geometries evolved numerically by Ricci flow. Our approach, based on persistent homology, produces precise, quantitative measures describing the behavior of an entire collection of data across a di…
PHINN: A generative model for rare-event time series using persistent homology
problem Generating rare events in time series
method Flow-matching framework with dynamic Betti curves and persistence landscape loss
result Outperforms statistical and diffusion baselines in topological fidelity and tail coverage
New connection found between shape reconstruction methods and persistent homology.
problem Connecting shape reconstruction methods with persistent homology.
method Wrap complexes and lexicographic optimal homologous cycles.
result Lexicographically optimal homologous cycles are supported on Wrap complexes.
Since persistence diagrams do not admit an inner product structure, a map into a Hilbert space is needed in order to use kernel methods. It is natural to ask if such maps necessarily distort the metric on persistence diagrams. We show that persistence diagrams with the bottleneck distance do not even admit a coarse emb…
We introduce a method to infer lead-lag networks of agents' actions in complex systems. These networks open the way to both microscopic and macroscopic states prediction in such systems. We apply this method to trader-resolved data in the foreign exchange market. We show that these networks are remarkably persistent, w…
A new method compares persistent cycles in topological data.
problem Comparing persistent homology representations of two spaces.
method Direct comparison of individual persistent cycles based on persistence intervals and spatial placement.
result Demonstrated the effectiveness of the method in topological inference.
We outline a detection method for adversarial inputs to deep neural networks. By viewing neural network computations as graphs upon which information flows from input space to out- put distribution, we compare the differences in graphs induced by different inputs. Specifically, by applying persistent homology to these …
Regularizes persistent homology gradients for neural network integration.
problem Ill-posed inverse problem in computing gradients of persistent homology.
method Regularization through a grouping term to define gradients for larger entities.
result Ensures gradients are defined with respect to larger entities, not individual points.
We use the database leak of Mt. Gox exchange to analyze the dynamics of the price of bitcoin from June 2011 to November 2013. This gives us a rare opportunity to study an emerging retail-focused, highly speculative and unregulated market with trader identifiers at a tick transaction level. Jumps are frequent events and…
We prove a persistence result for noncompact normally hyperbolic invariant manifolds in Riemannian manifolds of bounded geometry. The bounded geometry of the ambient manifold is a crucial assumption in order to control the uniformity of all estimates throughout the proof.
Model optimizes trading strategy with unobservable toxicity.
problem Maximizing daily trading profit with unobservable toxicity.
method Formulated as a partially observable stochastic control problem, solved in two steps.
result P&L performance gap is negligible (0.01%) in all scenarios.
Unified pipeline classifies time series using complex networks and persistent homology.
problem Classifying univariate time series using various graph constructions and metrics.
method Time series to graph, graph to dissimilarity matrix, filtration to persistence diagrams, vectorization to features.
result Persistence-based features are robust to noise and optimal graph type depends on signal structure.
Persistent homology enhances graph classification by capturing long-range graph properties.
problem Lack of formal assessment of persistent homology in graph learning.
method Brief introduction and theoretical discussion of persistent homology in graph context, followed by empirical analysis.
result Persistent homology improves graph classification, especially for data with prominent topological structures.
Study validates Lillo-Mike-Farmer model predicting financial market long-range correlations.
problem Quantifying long-range correlations in financial markets.
method Analyzed nine years of market data to classify traders as order-splitting or random, measured metaorder-length distributions, and compared to LMF model predictions.
result Agreement between LMF model predictions and actual data, validating the model.
Study identifies 1,012 persistent wallet cohorts on Solana pump.fun, showing coordinated buying behavior.
problem Understanding coordinated buying behavior on Solana pump.fun.
method Two-stage detection pipeline: first-buyer-window extraction followed by persistent-cohort surfacing via graph co-occurrence.
result 1,012 persistent wallet cohorts identified, showing systematic co-buying across multiple launches.
Study assesses additional factors for identifying persistent alpha in pension funds.
problem Identify persistent alpha in pension funds using additional factors.
method Reproduces Fama and French's (2010) experiment with additional features and compares results to 3-factor model.
result Additional factors improve persistence of alpha assessment in pension funds.
Persistent entropy detects phase transitions in complex systems.
problem Detecting phase transitions in complex systems.
method Established a general theorem for persistent entropy to reliably detect phase transitions, introduced operational framework for finite-time computations.
result Persistent entropy exhibits an asymptotically non-vanishing gap across phases, robust numerical signatures across experiments.
Weather and atmospheric patterns are often persistent. The simplest weather forecasting method is the so-called persistence model, which assumes that the future state of a system will be similar (or equal) to the present state. Machine learning (ML) models are widely used in different weather forecasting applications, …
Expands Bredon's trick for applications in geometry and topology.
problem Local-to-global extension principles in geometric and topological contexts.
method Novel applications and frameworks for stratified pseudomanifolds, Ricci flow, and persistent homology.
result Establishes Bredon's trick as a unifying framework.
New geometric insights reveal the persistence distribution in spin systems.
problem Determining the full persistence probability distribution in non-Markovian stochastic processes.
method Exact Fredholm Pfaffian structure and Painlevé VI system analysis.
result Recovery of the universal persistence exponent and its geometric interpretation.
Introduces TSI, a variance-based measure for persistence barcodes.
problem Capturing structural variability in persistence barcodes.
method Variance-based scalar measure, TSI, and complementary TSigI.
result TSI captures structural variability complementary to entropy.
Study shows pre-event L2 liquidity state predicts crypto futures liquidity better than event labels.
problem Understanding how crypto futures liquidity changes over time.
method Combining L2 order book data, trade-flow records, and macro-event windows to define discrete liquidity-state transitions and evaluate models.
result Pre-event L2 liquidity state predicts post-event liquidity regimes better than event labels, and order flow adds value only when layered on top of the state model.
We consider compact convex hypersurfaces contracting by functions of their curvature. Under the mean curvature flow, uniformly convex smooth initial hypersurfaces evolve to remain smooth and uniformly convex, and contract to points after finite time. The same holds if the initial data is only weakly convex or non-smoot…
Market makers face a trade-off between fill probability and post-fill returns, requiring contrarian strategies.
problem Navigating the trade-off between fill probability and post-fill returns in market making.
method Analysis of live trading data from Binance Bitcoin perpetual.
result A negative correlation between maker fill likelihood and post-fill returns, necessitating contrarian strategies.
Simplicial persistence measures financial market dynamics, revealing long-term structure evolution.
problem Understanding the long-term structure evolution of financial markets.
method Simplicial persistence, null models, TMFG filtering, thresholding, generative process analysis.
result More liquid markets exhibit slower persistence decay, suggesting higher fragility to systemic shocks.
Study models market volatility with persistent and temporary impacts.
problem Microstructure of rough volatility models driven by Poisson measures.
method Existence and uniqueness of solutions for stochastic path-dependent Volterra equations.
result Volatility process converges to fractional Heston model with spikes.
Unreduced PDs can perform similarly to reduced PDs in machine learning tasks.
problem Ignoring much of the information in persistence diagrams in machine learning pipelines.
method Developed methods to generate topological feature vectors from unreduced boundary matrices.
result Unreduced PDs can perform on par with, and sometimes outperform, fully-reduced PDs in machine learning tasks.
The paper develops a method to predict the latent deterioration phase in limit order books before stress is observed.
problem Limit order books can transition rapidly from stable to stressed conditions, making it difficult to detect the latent deterioration phase.
method The paper formalizes a three-regime causal data-generating process and proposes a trigger-based detector combining MAX aggregation of complementary signal channels, a rising-edge condition, and adaptive thresholding.
result The proposed method achieves mean lead-time of +18.6 timesteps with perfect precision and moderate coverage, outperforming classical change-point and microstructure baselines.
In 2004, Manning showed that the topological entropy of the geodesic flow for a surface of negative curvature decreases as the metric evolves under the normalised Ricci flow. It is an interesting open problem, also due to Manning, to determine to what extent such behaviour persists for higher dimensional manifolds. In …
Improved modeling of persistence diagrams for data analysis.
problem Determining significant outliers in persistence diagrams.
method Modification of the RST (Replicating Statistical Topology) model using MCMC Metropolis-Hastings algorithm.
result The modified RST model improves the goodness of fit in persistence diagram analysis.