We investigated the critical dynamics on the daily Taiwan stock exchange index (TSE) from 1971 to 2005, and the 5-min intraday data from 1996 to 2005. A global persistence exponent was defined for non-equilibrium critical phenomena \cite{Janssen,Majumdar}, and describing dynamic behavior in an economic index \c…
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48 results for “persistent behavior”
We present a relatively detailed analysis of the persistence probability distributions in financial dynamics. Compared with the auto-correlation function, the persistence probability distributions describe dynamic correlations non-local in time. Universal and non-universal behaviors of the German DAX and Shanghai Index…
The paper examines how long-memory dynamics, rough-volatility, and persistence affect equity volatility forecasting.
problem The study investigates how long-memory dynamics, rough-volatility, and persistence impact equity volatility forecasting.
method The paper combines semiparametric long-memory estimation, rough-volatility diagnostics, and structured forecasting regressions.
result Persistence measures improve out-of-sample volatility forecasts, particularly during periods of elevated market volatility and in volatility-managed portfolio applications.
Paper introduces a new topological loss for better convergence.
problem Optimizing topological losses for model's desired topological behavior.
method Introduces a new regularized topology-aware loss function.
result Guarantees efficient optimization of the new loss function.
This note contributes to the point calculus of persistent homology by extending Alexander duality to real-valued functions. Given a perfect Morse function and a decomposition such that $M = \U \cap V$ is an -manifold, we prove elementary relationships between the persisten…
The paper uses persistent homology to estimate recurrence times in multi-variate time series.
problem Estimating recurrence times in multi-variate time series with different cyclic behaviors.
method Persistent homology framework with three specialized methods.
result Validated methods on real-world data, including a new benchmark dataset.
Scaling Analysis on Indian Foreign Exchange Marketphysics.soc-ph
In this paper we investigate the scaling behavior of the average daily exchange rate returns of the Indian Rupee against four foreign currencies namely US Dollar, Euro, Great Britain Pound and Japanese Yen. Average daily exchange rate return of the Indian Rupee against US Dollar is found to exhibit a persistent scaling…
Why is order flow so persistent?q-fin.TR
Order flow in equity markets is remarkably persistent in the sense that order signs (to buy or sell) are positively autocorrelated out to time lags of tens of thousands of orders, corresponding to many days. Two possible explanations are herding, corresponding to positive correlation in the behavior of different invest…
Quantum circuits predict volatility dynamics preserving asymmetry.
problem Modeling volatility time series with asymmetry.
method Single-qubit quantum circuit learning (QCL) applied to synthetic data generated by Rational GARCH model.
result QCL-based predictions preserve negative return-volatility correlation and anti-persistent behavior.
Introduces TSI, a variance-based measure for persistence barcodes.
problem Capturing structural variability in persistence barcodes.
method Variance-based scalar measure, TSI, and complementary TSigI.
result TSI captures structural variability complementary to entropy.
New method uses DTW to evaluate neural network forecasts of geomagnetic indices.
problem Evaluation metrics fail to capture persistence behavior in neural network forecasts.
method Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) to measure time series similarity, training neural networks to remove persistence.
result DTW reveals persistence behavior in neural network forecasts, confirming visual inspection.
TabPFN's internal geometry topology correlates with dataset reliability.
problem Understanding TabPFN's behavior on structurally difficult tabular geometries.
method Using zigzag persistent homology, studying TabPFN's internal representations on synthetic tabular tasks with known topology.
result Topology of TabPFN's internal representation geometry is strongly associated with dataset-level reliability.
Unified framework connects deformation theory and derived categories for multiparameter persistence.
problem Algebraic complexity of multiparameter persistence modules hinders classification, stability, and interpretability.
method Combines deformation theory and derived categories to study multiparameter persistence geometrically.
result Unified conjecture relating interleaving distance to derived convolution metrics established.
A new model separates persistence and transition priors in HDP-HMM.
problem Limitation of sticky HDP-HMM in expressing different persistence strengths.
method Developed a disentangled sticky HDP-HMM (DS-HDP-HMM) with novel Gibbs sampling algorithms.
result DS-HDP-HMM outperforms sticky HDP-HMM and HDP-HMM on synthetic and real data.
New method decomposes Markov chain rewards into persistent and transient components.
problem Ambiguity in classical evaluation methods for Markov chains with reducible and periodic states.
method Minimal exact quotient by the real peripheral invariant subspace, decomposing rewards into persistent and transient components.
result Exact comparison with classical methods shows that the new decomposition reallocates the same information, making persistent modes explicit.
We study the temporal fluctuations in time-dependent stock prices (both individual and composite) as a stochastic phenomenon using general techniques and methods of nonequilibrium statistical mechanics. In particular, we analyze stock price fluctuations as a non-Markovian stochastic process using the first-passage stat…
Topological method detects Hopf bifurcations from time series.
problem Detecting Hopf bifurcations in nonlinear systems from time series data.
method Persistent homology applied to Takens embedding for phase space reconstructions.
result A simple scalar topological functional identifies critical bifurcation points.
Study forecasts U.S. bond index using deep learning, finding persistence is key.
problem Forecasting U.S. aggregate bond index with deep learning methods.
method Constructed a stationary but maximally persistent representation of the bond index, evaluated using MLPs and CNNs.
result Deep learning models outperform traditional methods in short-horizon forecasting of bond indices.
We implement methods from computational homology to obtain a topological signal of singularity formation in a selection of geometries evolved numerically by Ricci flow. Our approach, based on persistent homology, produces precise, quantitative measures describing the behavior of an entire collection of data across a di…
This paper introduces TDA and TSI for better business analytics.
problem Nonlinear, multi-scale business datasets under-represented by traditional tools.
method Topological Data Analysis (TDA) and Topological Stability Index (TSI).
result TSI reveals structural variability in business data.
A model of adaptive, market behavior generating positive returns, volatility and system riskq-fin.TR
We describe a simple model for speculative trading based on adaptive behavior of economic agents.The adaptive behavior is expressed through a feedback mechanism for changing agents' stock-to-bond ratios, depending on the past performance of their portfolios.The stock price is set according to the demand-supply for the …
In this study, we present and analyze a framework for geometric and topological estimation for mapping of unknown environments. We consider agents mimicking motion behaviors of cyborg insects, known as biobots, and exploit coordinate-free local interactions among them to infer geometric and topological information abou…
Prediction markets can shape political behavior through persistent signals, not just forecast accuracy.
problem The role of prediction markets beyond forecasting.
method Transaction-level evidence from the 2024 U.S. presidential election, Signal Credibility Index (SCI).
result Price signals in prediction markets are more influential due to persistence, breadth of trader types, and cross-platform consensus.
This letter revisits the informational efficiency of the Bitcoin market. In particular we analyze the time-varying behavior of long memory of returns on Bitcoin and volatility 2011 until 2017, using the Hurst exponent. Our results are twofold. First, R/S method is prone to detect long memory, whereas DFA method can dis…
Study identifies 1,012 persistent wallet cohorts on Solana pump.fun, showing coordinated buying behavior.
problem Understanding coordinated buying behavior on Solana pump.fun.
method Two-stage detection pipeline: first-buyer-window extraction followed by persistent-cohort surfacing via graph co-occurrence.
result 1,012 persistent wallet cohorts identified, showing systematic co-buying across multiple launches.
The speculation game is an agent-based toy model to investigate the dynamics of the financial market. Our model has achieved the reproduction of 10 of the well-known stylized facts for financial time series. However, there is also a divergence from the behavior of real market. The market price of the model tends to be …
Approaches for approximating persistent homology for large datasets.
problem Inability to compute persistent homology for large datasets.
method Multiple subsampling framework for statistical approximation of persistent homology.
result Derivation of finite sample convergence rates for empirical means of persistent homology.
Persistence landscapes map persistence diagrams into a function space, which may often be taken to be a Banach space or even a Hilbert space. In the latter case, it is a feature map and there is an associated kernel. The main advantage of this summary is that it allows one to apply tools from statistics and machine lea…
Proposes deep graph persistence to address neural persistence issues in deep learning.
problem Variance of weights and lack of spatial structure in deep neural networks impact neural persistence.
method Extends neural persistence to the whole network, considering interactions between layers.
result Deep graph persistence alleviates variance-related issues and captures persistent paths through the network.
We introduce a new class of continuous-time models of the stochastic volatility of asset prices. The models can simultaneously incorporate roughness and slowly decaying autocorrelations, including proper long memory, which are two stylized facts often found in volatility data. Our prime model is based on the so-called …
Record statistics and persistence for a random walk with a driftcond-mat.stat-mech
We study the statistics of records of a one-dimensional random walk of n steps, starting from the origin, and in presence of a constant bias c. At each time-step the walker makes a random jump of length ηdrawn from a continuous distribution f(η) which is symmetric around a constant drift c. We focus in particular on th…
Paper proves -means clustering works on persistence diagrams.
problem Complex geometry of persistence diagram space.
method Proves convergence of -means on persistence diagram space.
result Performance of -means on persistence diagrams and measures is superior.
Formula for interleaving distance of rectangle persistence modules.
problem Calculating distances between rectangle persistence modules.
method Formulas based on rectangle geometry, extended to decomposable modules.
result Closed formulas for interleaving and bottleneck distances.
Study decomposes racial healthcare disparities via shifts in mediator distributions.
problem Racial disparities in healthcare expenditures and their underlying drivers.
method Framework decomposing disparities into mediator distribution shifts and residual components, using MEPS data.
result Substantial disparities persist even when mediators are equalized, suggesting unmeasured or structural factors.
This paper demonstrates the flaws of co-persistence theory proposed by Bollerslev and Engle (1993) which cause the theory can hardly be applied. With the introduction of the half-life of decay coefficient as the measure of the persistence, and both the weak definition of persistence and co-persistence in variance, this…
Optimizes wavelets for graph classification using spectral wavelet signatures and persistence diagrams.
problem Graph classification with geometric properties encoded in persistence diagrams.
method Optimizes spectral wavelets for graph datasets to capture best-suited features for classification.
result Competitive performance in graph classification problems compared to other persistence-based architectures.
New method for analyzing multiparameter persistence modules from smooth functions.
problem Analyzing multiparameter persistence modules from smooth functions.
method Generalized Morse theory applied to cobordism and Cerf theory.
result Complete description of persistence modules as direct sums of indecomposables.
Develops robust persistence diagrams using kernel methods.
problem Persistence diagrams are sensitive to data perturbations.
method Constructs robust persistence diagrams from superlevel filtrations of robust density estimators using reproducing kernels.
result Robust persistence diagrams are consistent estimators in bottleneck distance.
This paper interprets critical scales in persistent homology for compact metric spaces.
problem Understanding critical scales in persistent homology for general compact metric spaces.
method Analyzing local minima of the distance function and their impact on persistence.
result Each decrease in zero-dimensional persistence and increase in one-dimensional persistence is induced by local minima of the distance function.
MuRiT efficiently computes multi-parameter persistence barcodes.
problem Efficient computation of multi-parameter persistent homology.
method Vietoris-Rips transformation to reduce multi-parameter to single-parameter computation.
result MuRiT computes pathwise persistence barcodes for multi-filtered flag complexes.
Let X be a quasiprojective manifold given by the complement of a divisor $\bD$ with normal crossings in a smooth projective manifold $\bX$. Using a natural compactification of by a manifold with corners $\tX$, we describe the full asymptotic behavior at infinity of certain complete Kahler metrics of finite volume o…
This note investigates the causes of the quality anomaly, which is one of the strongest and most scalable anomalies in equity markets. We explore two potential explanations. The "risk view", whereby investing in high quality firms is somehow riskier, so that the higher returns of a quality portfolio are a compensation …
Persistent homology can recognize knotting in curves.
problem Recognizing knotting in curves
method Compute one-dimensional persistent homology, extract cycle representatives, and assign a hypergraph curvature-based score.
result Systematic differences between knotted and unknotted structures are revealed.
This article analyzes the relationship between co-persistence and hedging which indicates co-persistence ratio is just the long-term hedging ratio. The new method of exhaustive search algorithm for deriving co-persistence ratio is derived in the article. And we also develop a new hedging strategy of combining co-persis…
Despite the obvious similarities between the metrics used in topological data analysis and those of optimal transport, an optimal-transport based formalism to study persistence diagrams and similar topological descriptors has yet to come. In this article, by considering the space of persistence diagrams as a space of d…
Persistence diagrams are important descriptors in Topological Data Analysis. Due to the nonlinearity of the space of persistence diagrams equipped with their {\em diagram distances}, most of the recent attempts at using persistence diagrams in machine learning have been done through kernel methods, i.e., embeddings of …
Computational topology has recently known an important development toward data analysis, giving birth to the field of topological data analysis. Topological persistence, or persistent homology, appears as a fundamental tool in this field. In this paper, we study topological persistence in general metric spaces, with a …
The choice of the control frequency of a system has a relevant impact on the ability of reinforcement learning algorithms to learn a highly performing policy. In this paper, we introduce the notion of action persistence that consists in the repetition of an action for a fixed number of decision steps, having the effect…