TWM doesn't reduce delta in PDLPs, proving impossibility.
problem TWM in PDLPs doesn't uniformly reduce portfolio delta.
method Proved TWM's condition is self-contradictory and showed impossibility.
result No TWM can uniformly reduce portfolio delta.
PDLPs reduce borrowing costs for perpetual futures traders.
problem High capital costs for market makers and traders in decentralized settings.
method Formalize PDLPs and target weight mechanisms, describe pool arbitrage and expected payoffs.
result PDLPs are easy to delta hedge, improving capital efficiency.
This research simplifies lending pools in decentralized finance for better understanding and security.
problem Complexity and lack of executable models make lending pools hard to understand and predict.
method Developed a formal model to reflect common features of lending pools and proved general properties.
result Proved correct handling of funds and described vulnerabilities and attacks.
Study proposes optimal risk-aware interest rates for crypto lending protocols.
problem Determining optimal interest rates for decentralized lending protocols to maximize profit and minimize risk.
method Agent-based model, Riccati-type ODEs for linear behaviors, Monte-Carlo estimator and deep learning for nonlinear behaviors.
result Calibrated model shows superior risk-adjusted performance compared to industry-standard interest rate models.
Panoptic trades options without oracles on Ethereum.
problem Trading options without relying on oracles.
method Perpetual, trustless, instant-settlement protocol on Ethereum.
result Trustless, permissionless trading of options on Uniswap v3.
Study uses RL to optimize crypto portfolios with two-sided transactions and lending.
problem Managing downside risk and capital optimization in high-risk crypto markets.
method Integrates RL with a new environmental formulation and PnL-based reward function, using SAC agent with CNN-MHA.
result Significantly outperforms benchmarks, especially in high-volatility scenarios.
We consider a fundamental dynamic allocation problem motivated by the problem of securities lending in financial markets, the mechanism underlying the short selling of stocks. A lender would like to distribute a finite number of identical copies of some scarce resource to n clients, each of whom has a priv…
Dynamic pricing improves DeFi lending efficiency by reducing regret to logarithmic levels.
problem Static pricing mechanisms in DeFi lending protocols lead to suboptimal welfare and revenue.
method Online learning model for static and dynamic pricing models in DeFi lending.
result Adaptive supply models achieve logarithmic regret, outperforming static models.
Cryptofinance generates yield through innovative decentralized finance.
problem Lack of intrinsic yield in crypto-assets.
method Analysis of yield-generating mechanisms in cryptofinance.
result Cryptofinance innovations enable yield generation through various decentralized and centralised mechanisms.
A new Bayesian model improves forecasting for intermittent demand.
problem Sparse observations, cold-start items, and obsolescence in intermittent demand forecasting.
method Hierarchical Bayesian TSB model with partial pooling and calibrated probabilistic configuration.
result TSB-HB achieves the lowest RMSE and RMSSE on the UCI Online Retail dataset.
This paper builds a machine learning model to predict credit defaults for unsecured lending.
problem High credit defaults and delinquency rates in unsecured lending due to imbalanced data.
method Employing machine learning techniques, particularly SMOTE for imbalanced data, and evaluating models like LGBM Classifier.
result LGBM Classifier model outperforms other models in predicting credit defaults.
Develops a new framework for perpetual futures on binary prediction markets.
problem Lack of effective risk management in perpetual futures on binary prediction markets.
method PIRAP framework with six components: index estimator, margin sizing, leverage, funding rule, halt protocol, and eligibility framework.
result Mixed results from empirical evaluation, with some pre-registered floors passing and others failing.
Perpetual futures offer leverage without maturity, with prices influenced by funding rates.
problem Understanding and pricing perpetual futures with funding rates.
method Derive no-arbitrage prices and bounds in markets with trading costs. Empirically analyze deviations and Sharpe ratios of implied arbitrage strategies.
result Implied arbitrage strategies in crypto markets yield high Sharpe ratios, indicating significant pricing inefficiencies.
In this article, we develop a model for the evolution of real estate prices. A wide range of inputs, including stochastic interest rates and changing demands for the asset, are considered. Maximizing their expected utility, home owners make optimal sale decisions given these changing market conditions. Using these opti…
DeFi lending protocols faced challenges during Ethereum's merge, but avoided major liquidations.
problem Ethereum's merge caused volatility and potential liquidations in DeFi lending.
method Analyzed AAVE and Compound lending protocols during the merge and hard fork.
result Borrowing rates spiked but no significant liquidations occurred.
Study optimizes funding rates for cryptocurrency perpetual futures to maintain price alignment.
problem Maintaining alignment between perpetual future prices and target values in cryptocurrency markets.
method Developed replicating portfolios and path-dependent funding rates using path-dependent infinite-horizon BSDEs and arbitrage pricing theory.
result Appropriate funding rate design can keep perpetual future prices aligned with target values.
Machine learning can impact people with legal or ethical consequences when it is used to automate decisions in areas such as insurance, lending, hiring, and predictive policing. In many of these scenarios, previous decisions have been made that are unfairly biased against certain subpopulations, for example those of a …
The paper values perpetual callable American volatility options using a mean-reverting volatility model.
problem Valuation of callable American volatility put options.
method Modeling volatility dynamics as a mean-reverting 3/2 process and proposing a pricing formula.
result The value of perpetual callable American volatility put options is discussed under given conditions.
Derives pricing formulas for perpetual futures contracts.
problem Ensuring fair pricing of perpetual futures contracts without expiration.
method Explicit expressions derived for various types of perpetual contracts, including linear, inverse, and quantos futures.
result Futures price is the risk-neutral expectation of the spot price sampled at a random time reflecting funding payments.
A new method for creating derivatives without oracles.
problem Lack of trust in external oracles for derivatives pricing.
method Using Replicating Market Makers (RMMs) to create derivative instruments.
result Demonstrated the feasibility of on-chain expiring options without oracles.
Graph neural networks, which generalize deep neural network models to graph structured data, have attracted increasing attention in recent years. They usually learn node representations by transforming, propagating and aggregating node features and have been proven to improve the performance of many graph related tasks…
Study finds discrepancies in open interest reporting for Bitcoin perpetual swaps.
problem Misquoted open interest in perpetual swaps leads to liquidity and solvency concerns.
method Analyzed tick-by-tick data from seven exchanges to identify discrepancies.
result Open interest reported by exchanges varies widely, some implausible.
A variational inequality for pricing the perpetual American option and the corresponding difference equation are considered. First, the maximum principle and uniqueness of the solution to variational inequality for pricing the perpetual American option are proved. Then the maximum principle, the existence and uniquenes…
Optimizes leveraged staking strategies in decentralized finance.
problem Maximizing returns on staked assets in decentralized lending platforms.
method Developed a mathematical framework to optimize leveraged staking strategies, reducing the multi-market problem to convex allocation over market exposures.
result Rebalanced leveraged positions can achieve up to 6.2% APY, significantly higher than unleveraged staking.
Adaptive pricing framework for perpetual contracts using liquidity curves and oracles.
problem Ensuring stable and predictable pricing for perpetual contracts.
method Uses liquidity curves and on-chain oracles with parabolic and sigmoid functions to quote prices and fees.
result Ensures pricing stability and predictability through adaptive pricing framework.
EarnMore uses masked stock representations to train RL agents for customizable stock pools efficiently.
problem Training RL agents for customizable stock pools (CSPs) is computationally expensive and unstable.
method EarnMore introduces a mechanism to mask out stocks outside the target pool, learns meaningful stock representations, and uses a re-weighting mechanism to focus on favorable stocks.
result EarnMore significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in profit metrics with over 40% improvement.
It is well known how to determine the price of perpetual American options if the underlying stock price is a time-homogeneous diffusion. In the present paper we consider the inverse problem, that is, given prices of perpetual American options for different strikes, we show how to construct a time-homogeneous stock pric…
The paper explores perpetual contracts in a financial market without arbitrage.
problem Modeling perpetual contracts in a continuous-time financial market.
method Derive model-free and semi-robust expressions for perpetual contracts' funding and discount rates.
result Explicit replication strategies for perpetual contracts are derived, relating them to traditional financial instruments.
Compound Finance optimizes risk metrics for V3 protocol using Chainrisk simulations.
problem Optimizing systemic risks in Compound V3 protocol.
method Millions of Chainrisk simulations to evaluate VaR and LaR, providing parameter adjustments.
result Optimization framework enhances protocol stability.
An interbank market lets participants pool the risk arising from the combination of illiquid investments and random withdrawals by depositors. But it also creates the potential for one bank's failure to trigger off avalanches of further failures. We simulate a model of interbank lending to study the interplay of these …
We investigate the macroeconomic consequences of narrow banking in the context of stock-flow consistent models. We begin with an extension of the Goodwin-Keen model incorporating time deposits, government bills, cash, and central bank reserves to the base model with loans and demand deposits and use it to describe a fr…
Gas demand forecasting is a critical task for energy providers as it impacts on pipe reservation and stock planning. In this paper, the one-day-ahead forecasting of residential gas demand at country level is investigated by implementing and comparing five models: Ridge Regression, Gaussian Process (GP), k-Nearest Neigh…
It is well known that in models with time-homogeneous local volatility functions and constant interest and dividend rates, the European Put prices are transformed into European Call prices by the simultaneous exchanges of the interest and dividend rates and of the strike and spot price of the underlying. This paper inv…
Investment and insurance decisions are studied in a model with nonlinear portfolio frictions and background risk.
problem Investment and insurance decisions under a model with nonlinear portfolio frictions and background risk.
method Dynamic programming approach to find optimality conditions.
result Agent can choose to assume, partially assume, or purchase total insurance against adverse jumps in wealth.
This paper optimizes perpetual contract liquidity by accounting for funding rates.
problem Optimal liquidity provision for perpetual contracts with stochastic funding rates.
method Formulated a control problem, solved with a HJB scheme, and calibrated on real data.
result Funding-aware market making improves performance and reduces inventory risk.
Agent optimizes perpetual contract liquidation with transaction costs and risk.
problem Optimizing perpetual contract liquidation with transaction costs and risk.
method Solving stochastic control problem for optimal trading strategy.
result Closed-form expression and approximations for optimal strategy.
Paper calculates perpetual put option pricing with drawdown cap.
problem Pricing perpetual American put options with drawdown constraints.
method Derives explicit formula using Black-Scholes model and martingale theory.
result Optimal exercise occurs at first drawdown below a threshold.
New method estimates consumer surplus from randomized pricing data.
problem Estimating consumer surplus from observational data, especially in AI-driven pricing.
method Cumulative Propensity Weights (CPW) and Augmented CPW (ACPW) estimators.
result Validated methods for estimating consumer surplus from randomized pricing data.
This study examines how DEXs impact traders' behavior in perpetual futures contracts.
problem Understanding trader behavior in decentralized exchanges.
method Categorizing DEX models and analyzing their impact on trading patterns.
result DEXs, particularly those using VAMM, show differential effects on long and short positions.
This paper designs a new on-chain option that amortizes perpetual options for blockchain environments.
problem No equivalent standard for on-chain options exists, leading to high-frequency oracles and liquidation engines failures.
method Develops an amortizing perpetual option contract tailored to blockchain constraints, introducing a decentralized market framework.
result Demonstrates that the new contract functions as a risk primitive for DeFi, enabling applications like endogenous collateralization and de-peg insurance.
New option type preserves fungibility by amortizing payments over time.
problem Traditional installment options destroy fungibility and lapse when payments stop.
method Introduces amortizing perpetual options (AmPOs) with an implicit payment scheme.
result Valuation of AmPOs reduces to vanilla perpetual American options.
We develop a trinomial tree model for pricing perpetual derivatives and European options.
problem Pricing perpetual derivatives and European options in a market with two risky assets and a perpetual derivative of one of them.
method We introduce a recombining trinomial tree model, consider a market with two risky assets and a perpetual derivative, and use a replicating portfolio to price options and generate relationships between risk-neutral and real-world parameters.
result We develop implied parameter surfaces for real-world parameters in the model using historical data.
A winning method for day-ahead electricity demand forecasting during and after the COVID-19 pandemic.
problem Day-ahead electricity demand forecasting during and after the COVID-19 pandemic.
method Online forecast combination of multiple point prediction models with a holiday adjustment procedure and smoothed Bernstein Online Aggregation (BOA).
result Excellent forecasting performance, particularly due to the holiday adjustment procedure and fully adaptive smoothed BOA approach.
Paper calculates perpetual American put option pricing with drawdown event in Lévy market.
problem Pricing perpetual American put options with a drawdown event in a Lévy market.
method Derives explicit price using geometric Lévy process with downward jumps, optimal stopping rule, and martingale arguments.
result Optimal stopping rule is the first time asset price falls below a specific value.
Machine learning algorithms are now frequently used in sensitive contexts that substantially affect the course of human lives, such as credit lending or criminal justice. This is driven by the idea that `objective' machines base their decisions solely on facts and remain unaffected by human cognitive biases, discrimina…
The paper categorizes and analyzes various event-linked perpetual futures contracts.
problem Developing a risk-design framework for complex event-linked perpetual futures.
method Formal taxonomy of seven pure-form canonical variants, organized along four design axes.
result Detailed analysis of microstructure properties and limitations of various variants.
Study finds optimal boundaries for hedging a perpetual American put option.
problem Hedging perpetual American put options using delta hedging is impractical.
method Considered a seller of a perpetual American put option with a single trade.
result Determined optimal trading boundaries and hedging strategy.
Researchers calculate the price of a perpetual put option in Lévy models.
problem Calculating the price of a perpetual American put option in Lévy models.
method Derive the explicit price using geometric spectrally negative Lévy processes and optimal threshold.
result The optimal exercise time is the first epoch when the asset price drops below an optimal threshold.