arXiv research

Proposes a method to create shorter, more accurate prediction intervals.

Proposes a framework for partially fair machine learning models.

Methods for prediction and tolerance intervals in non-normal models.

Evidential clustering is an approach to clustering in which cluster-membership uncertainty is represented by a collection of Dempster-Shafer mass functions forming an evidential partition. In this paper, we propose to construct these mass functions by bootstrapping finite mixture models. In the first step, we compute b…

New algorithms optimize a soft-robust criterion in reinforcement learning, reducing conservatism.

A perturbative approach is used to derive approximations of arbitrary order to estimate high percentiles of sums of positive independent random variables that exhibit heavy tails. Closed-form expressions for the successive approximations are obtained both when the number of terms in the sum is deterministic and when it…

Bootstrap method for Markov chains in reinforcement learning.

This note displays an interesting phenomenon for percentiles of independent but non-identical random variables. Let $X_1,\cdots,X_n$ be independent random variables obeying non-identical continuous distributions and $X^{(1)}\geq \cdots\geq X^{(n)}$ be the corresponding order statistics. For any $p\in(0,1)$, we investig…

Interference among concurrent transmissions in a wireless network is a key factor limiting the system performance. One way to alleviate this problem is to manage the radio resources in order to maximize either the average or the worst-case performance. However, joint consideration of both metrics is often neglected as …

Non-parametric bootstrap improves robust portfolio and trading strategy optimization.

We propose a novel non-parametric adaptive anomaly detection algorithm for high dimensional data based on rank-SVM. Data points are first ranked based on scores derived from nearest neighbor graphs on n-point nominal data. We then train a rank-SVM using this ranked data. A test-point is declared as an anomaly at alpha-…

We address the problem of computing reliable policies in reinforcement learning problems with limited data. In particular, we compute policies that achieve good returns with high confidence when deployed. This objective, known as the \emph{percentile criterion}, can be optimized using Robust MDPs~(RMDPs). RMDPs general…

We propose a non-parametric anomaly detection algorithm for high dimensional data. We score each datapoint by its average $K$-NN distance, and rank them accordingly. We then train limited complexity models to imitate these scores based on the max-margin learning-to-rank framework. A test-point is declared as an anomaly…

We propose a non-parametric anomaly detection algorithm for high dimensional data. We first rank scores derived from nearest neighbor graphs on $n$-point nominal training data. We then train limited complexity models to imitate these scores based on the max-margin learning-to-rank framework. A test-point is declared as…

We propose a mechanism for distributed resource management and interference mitigation in wireless networks using multi-agent deep reinforcement learning (RL). We equip each transmitter in the network with a deep RL agent that receives delayed observations from its associated users, while also exchanging observations w…

Locally adaptive interpretable regression improves linear regression's predictability.

We propose an algorithm which predicts each subsequent time step relative to the previous timestep of intractable short rate model (when adjusted for drift and overall distribution of previous percentile result) and show that the method achieves superior outcomes to the unbiased estimate both on the trained dataset and…

Novel loss functions improve decision tree learning from noisy data.

The paper tackles fVaR prediction methods in finance.

This paper presents a novel scaling method for unbiased risk estimation.

New model predicts financial transaction durations using quantiles.

In this paper we discuss a general methodology to compute the market risk measure over long time horizons and at extreme percentiles, which are the typical conditions needed for estimating Economic Capital. The proposed approach extends the usual market-risk measure, ie, Value-at-Risk (VaR) at a short-term horizon and …

Hydropower reduces system electricity price and volatility, especially at extreme levels.

In this paper, we present iPrescribe, a scalable low-latency architecture for recommending 'next-best-offers' in an online setting. The paper presents the design of iPrescribe and compares its performance for implementations using different real-time streaming technology stacks. iPrescribe uses an ensemble of deep lear…

We consider the problem of downlink power control in wireless networks, consisting of multiple transmitter-receiver pairs communicating with each other over a single shared wireless medium. To mitigate the interference among concurrent transmissions, we leverage the network topology to create a graph neural network arc…

Machine Learning techniques have become pervasive across a range of different applications, and are now widely used in areas as disparate as recidivism prediction, consumer credit-risk analysis and insurance pricing. The prevalence of machine learning techniques has raised concerns about the potential for learned algor…

We study cross-country GDP losses due to financial crises in terms of frequency (number of loss events per period) and severity (loss per occurrence). We perform the Loss Distribution Approach (LDA) to estimate a multi-country aggregate GDP loss probability density function and the percentiles associated to extreme eve…

We extend the Vasiček loan portfolio model to a setting where liabilities fluctuate randomly and asset values may be subject to systemic jump risk. We derive the probability distribution of the percentage loss of a uniform portfolio and analyze its properties. We find that the impact of liability risk is ambiguous and …

Having a regression model, we are interested in finding two-sided intervals that are guaranteed to contain at least a desired proportion of the conditional distribution of the response variable given a specific combination of predictors. We name such intervals predictive intervals. This work presents a new method to fi…

Prediction intervals are a valuable way of quantifying uncertainty in regression problems. Good prediction intervals should be both correct, containing the actual value between the lower and upper bound at least a target percentage of the time; and tight, having a small mean width of the bounds. Many prior techniques f…

New methods for ordinal classification of interval-valued data and functional data.

Develops active intervals for geodesics in Teichmüller space.

Confidence intervals based on penalized maximum likelihood estimators such as the LASSO, adaptive LASSO, and hard-thresholding are analyzed. In the known-variance case, the finite-sample coverage properties of such intervals are determined and it is shown that symmetric intervals are the shortest. The length of the sho…

Proposes a method to create prediction intervals for neural networks using cross-validation.

The statistical properties of the return intervals $τ_q$ between successive 1-min volatilities of 30 liquid Chinese stocks exceeding a certain threshold $q$ are carefully studied. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test shows that 12 stocks exhibit scaling behaviors in the distributions of $τ_q$ for different thresholds $q$. …

CONTINA provides adaptive confidence intervals for traffic demand prediction.

The paper presents a method for generating well-calibrated prediction intervals using quality-driven deep ensembles.

Constructs tail-specific prediction intervals for financial applications

Analyzes biased random walks and corrupted intervals in adversarial settings.

Paper introduces a new method for classifying interval-valued time series.

Extends Fisher's Discriminant Analysis for interval-valued data.

Energy markets and the associated energy futures markets play a crucial role in global economies. We investigate the statistical properties of the recurrence intervals of daily volatility time series of four NYMEX energy futures, which are defined as the waiting times $τ$ between consecutive volatilities exceeding a gi…

Study optimality conditions for interval-valued optimization problems on Riemannian manifolds.

This work challenges the assumption that shorter conformal prediction intervals are always better.

Boosted conformal procedure improves prediction intervals.

We investigate scaling and memory effects in return intervals between price volatilities above a certain threshold $q$ for the Japanese stock market using daily and intraday data sets. We find that the distribution of return intervals can be approximated by a scaling function that depends only on the ratio between the …

Paper simulates LR fuzzy intervals with interval-valued cores.

Machine Learning models are often composed of pipelines of transformations. While this design allows to efficiently execute single model components at training time, prediction serving has different requirements such as low latency, high throughput and graceful performance degradation under heavy load. Current predicti…