We study in this paper the consequences of using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as a measure of quality for regression models. We show that finding the best model under the MAPE is equivalent to doing weighted Mean Absolute Error (MAE) regression. We also show that, under some asumptions, universal consisten…
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48 results for “percentage error minimization”
We study in this paper the consequences of using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as a measure of quality for regression models. We show that finding the best model under the MAPE is equivalent to doing weighted Mean Absolute Error (MAE) regression. We show that universal consistency of Empirical Risk Minimiza…
We study in this paper the consequences of using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as a measure of quality for regression models. We prove the existence of an optimal MAPE model and we show the universal consistency of Empirical Risk Minimization based on the MAPE. We also show that finding the best model under…
An Exponential Factorization Machine with Percentage Error Minimization to Retail Sales Forecastingcs.LG
New model predicts sales of new products with short life cycles.
problem Forecasting sales of new products with short lead times and life cycles.
method Developed an exponential factorization machine (EFM) to consider attributes and pairwise interactions.
result EFM model outperforms existing models in terms of MAPE and MAE.
Study shows accuracy of neural networks depends more on error location than percentage of error.
problem Effect of noise on accuracy in incremental learning neural networks.
method Empirical study using Perceptron, Feed Forward Neural Network, and Radial Basis Function Neural Network.
result Accuracy of neural networks is more dependent on error location than the percentage of error.
The machine learning community has become increasingly concerned with the potential for bias and discrimination in predictive models. This has motivated a growing line of work on what it means for a classification procedure to be "fair." In this paper, we investigate the tension between minimizing error disparity acros…
Prediction intervals are a valuable way of quantifying uncertainty in regression problems. Good prediction intervals should be both correct, containing the actual value between the lower and upper bound at least a target percentage of the time; and tight, having a small mean width of the bounds. Many prior techniques f…
Paper establishes generalization bounds for RNNs and improves existing results.
problem Theoretical understanding and generalization bounds for RNNs.
method New generalization error bound and Rademacher complexity calculation.
result Improved generalization bounds for RNNs, tighter than existing bounds.
Forecasting Exchange Rates Using Time Series Analysis: The sample of the currency of Kazakhstanq-fin.ST
This paper models yearly exchange rates between USD/KZT, EUR/KZT and SGD/KZT, and compares the actual data with developed forecasts using time series analysis over the period from 2006 to 2014. The official yearly data of National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan is used for present study. The main goal of this paper…
In this article, we derive concentration inequalities for the cross-validation estimate of the generalization error for empirical risk minimizers. In the general setting, we prove sanity-check bounds in the spirit of \cite{KR99} \textquotedblleft\textit{bounds showing that the worst-case error of this estimate is not m…
It is well known that the distribution of returns from various financial instruments are leptokurtic, meaning that the distributions have "fatter tails" than a Normal distribution, and have skew toward zero. This paper presents a graceful micro-level explanation for such fat-tailed outcomes, using agents whose private …
We investigate hierarchical structures of the European countries by using debt as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the countries as they change over a certain period of time. We obtain the topological properties among the countries based on debt as a percentage of GDP of European countries over the perio…
A new KF handles outliers without MSE loss.
problem Outliers degrade Kalman filter performance.
method NUV priors, EM and AM for variance estimation.
result Outlier-insensitive KF outperforms existing methods.
Hinge-FM2I fills missing data in time series with high accuracy.
problem Handling missing data in univariate time series.
method Inspired by door hinges, Hinge-FM2I imputes missing data using FM2I and selects the best imputed gap.
result Hinge-FM2I significantly outperforms other methods in sMAPE scores.
An Estimation of Personnel Food Demand Quantity for Businesses by Using Artificial Neural Networkscs.LG
Today, many public or private institutions provide professional food service for personnels working in their own organizations. Regarding the planning of the said service, there are some obstacles due to the fact that the number of the personnel working in the institutions is generally high and the personnel are out of…
Algorithm optimizes ε-SVR with MAPE loss and sample-dependent constraints.
problem Optimizing ε-SVR with MAPE loss and sample-dependent constraints.
method Sequential Minimal Optimization (SMO) for ε-SVR with MAPE loss and sample-dependent box constraints.
result Algorithm achieves lowest median runtime on every tested configuration.
New features from early battery cycles predict lifetime with high accuracy.
problem Accurately predicting battery lifetime under varying conditions is challenging due to manufacturing variability and usage-dependent degradation.
method Extracted features from regularly scheduled reference performance tests and used them to predict battery lifetime using a hierarchical Bayesian regression model.
result Demonstrated a lifetime prediction of in-distribution cells with 15.1% mean absolute percentage error using only the first 15% of data.
Repo dealers' market power affects bond prices by up to 2 percentage points.
problem Market power of repo dealers impacts bond prices and liquidity.
method Proprietary data on repo and reverse-repo trades analyzed.
result Market power of repo dealers accounts for 0.5-1.3 percentage points of bond yield deviation.
Batch normalization (batch norm) is often used in an attempt to stabilize and accelerate training in deep neural networks. In many cases it indeed decreases the number of parameter updates required to achieve low training error. However, it also reduces robustness to small adversarial input perturbations and noise by d…
Do Prediction Markets Match Option Prices? Bitcoin Threshold Evidence from Binance and Polymarketq-fin.TR
Prediction markets and crypto options show persistent pricing gaps.
problem Comparing prediction markets and crypto options for identical payoffs.
method Comparing Polymarket Yes prices with Binance call option prices.
result Mean pricing gap of 5.6 percentage points across 214 hourly observations.
Power plant is a complex and nonstationary system for which the traditional machine learning modeling approaches fall short of expectations. The ensemble-based online learning methods provide an effective way to continuously learn from the dynamic environment and autonomously update models to respond to environmental c…
New simulations advise caution in choosing principal components for multivariate functional data.
problem Inaccurate selection of principal components in multivariate functional data.
method Extensive simulations investigating the reliability of percentage of variance explained thresholds.
result Conventional threshold methods may fail to accurately explain overall variance in multivariate functional data.
Bayesian Consensus: Consensus Estimates from Miscalibrated Instruments under Heteroscedastic Noiseq-fin.ST
Bayesian consensus improves accuracy of forecasts from miscalibrated sources.
problem Aggregating predictions from miscalibrated and noisy sources.
method Bayesian approach to adjust for bias and noise, using hierarchical models.
result Bayesian consensus estimator is unbiased and more efficient than alternatives.
We have applied a Long Short-Term Memory neural network to model S&P 500 volatility, incorporating Google domestic trends as indicators of the public mood and macroeconomic factors. In a held-out test set, our Long Short-Term Memory model gives a mean absolute percentage error of 24.2%, outperforming linear Ridge/Lasso…
Due to the extremely volatile nature of financial markets, it is commonly accepted that stock price prediction is a task full of challenge. However in order to make profits or understand the essence of equity market, numerous market participants or researchers try to forecast stock price using various statistical, econ…
We propose a two-sample testing procedure based on learned deep neural network representations. To this end, we define two test statistics that perform an asymptotic location test on data samples mapped onto a hidden layer. The tests are consistent and asymptotically control the type-1 error rate. Their test statistics…
The study forecasts portfolio volatility using cointegrated asset dynamics.
problem Forecasting volatility in portfolios with high accuracy.
method Developed HVR/DVR ratios and used Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to forecast volatility.
result VECM forecasts of portfolio volatility have lower MAPE than covariance-based forecasts.
The purpose of this research is to apply technical analysis of Sutte Indicator in stock trading which will assist in the investment decision making process i.e. buying or selling shares. This research takes data of "A" on the Indonesia Stock Exchange(IDX or BEI) 29 November 2006 until 20 September 2016 period. To see t…
Improves bit error tolerance in RRAM-based BNNs without overfitting.
problem Bit errors in RRAM-based BNNs reduce accuracy and overfit to training error rates.
method Proposes straight-through gradient approximation and a novel regularizer.
result Improves BNNs' robustness to bit errors without overfitting.
Predicts Bitcoin price using Twitter sentiment analysis.
problem Volatility and varied opinions in cryptocurrency markets.
method Developed a model combining sentiment analysis of tweets and historical price data.
result Sentiment prediction MAPE of 9.45%, price prediction MAPE of 3.6%
For the efficient execution of deep convolutional neural networks (CNN) on edge devices, various approaches have been presented which reduce the bit width of the network parameters down to 1 bit. Binarization of the first layer was always excluded, as it leads to a significant error increase. Here, we present the novel…
Going Further: Flatness at the Rescue of Early Stopping for Adversarial Example Transferabilitycs.LG
SAM minimizes loss sharpness, improving adversarial transferability.
problem Improving adversarial transferability of deep neural networks.
method Evaluating surrogate models trained with seven minimizers, focusing on loss sharpness and flat neighborhoods.
result SAM minimizes loss sharpness, leading to better adversarial transferability.
In this work, we design a machine learning based method, online adaptive primal support vector regression (SVR), to model the implied volatility surface (IVS). The algorithm proposed is the first derivation and implementation of an online primal kernel SVR. It features enhancements that allow efficient online adaptive …
SAGA predicts multi-year earnings with adaptive intervals, improving forecast accuracy.
problem Forecasting long-range nonlinear structure in lifetime earnings.
method Decoder-only transformer for irregular tabular sequences, split conformal calibration.
result Significant improvement in forecast accuracy compared to existing methods.
Meta-learning predicts optimal ensemble size and methods for time series forecasting.
problem Finding the best ensemble of time series forecasting methods.
method Two-step approach using meta-learning to predict ensemble size and methods.
result Meta-learning outperformed benchmarks in forecasting errors for all data types and horizons.
Study evaluates 41 ML models for Bitcoin trading performance.
problem Predicting Bitcoin prices for algorithmic trading.
method Examined 21 classifiers and 20 regressors under various market conditions.
result Certain models like Random Forest and Stochastic Gradient Descent outperform others in profit and risk management.
A non-vector-based dissimilarity measure is proposed by combining vector-based distance metrics and set operations. This proposed compound dissimilarity measure (CDM) is applicable to quantify similarity of collections of attribute/feature pairs where not all attributes are present in all collections. This is a typical…
Hybrid model outperforms benchmarks in financial forecasting.
problem Robust asset price forecasting in finance.
method Combining LSTM with Neural Levy Processes using Grey Wolf Optimizer and ANN calibration.
result Hybrid model outperforms base LSTM and other models.
VERAFI improves financial AI by verifying calculations and compliance.
problem Financial AI systems generate errors and violations during reasoning.
method VERAFI combines dense retrieval, reranking, and automated reasoning policies.
result VERAFI achieves 94.7% factual correctness, 81% relative improvement.
This paper examines three independent explanatory variables and their relation with cost overrun in order to decide whether this is different for Dutch infrastructure projects compared to worldwide findings. The three independent variables are project type (road, rail, and fixed link projects), project size (measured i…
SLEID detects illicit accounts in DeFi transactions using semi-supervised learning.
problem Detecting illicit accounts in DeFi transactions with scarce labeled data.
method SLEID uses Isolation Forest for initial detection and self-training for pseudo-labels.
result SLEID outperforms baselines with significant improvements in precision and accuracy.
Numeracy is the ability to understand and work with numbers. It is a necessary skill for composing and understanding documents in clinical, scientific, and other technical domains. In this paper, we explore different strategies for modelling numerals with language models, such as memorisation and digit-by-digit composi…
Are Bitcoins price predictable? Evidence from machine learning techniques using technical indicatorsq-fin.ST
The uncertainties in future Bitcoin price make it difficult to accurately predict the price of Bitcoin. Accurately predicting the price for Bitcoin is therefore important for decision-making process of investors and market players in the cryptocurrency market. Using historical data from 01/01/2012 to 16/08/2019, machin…
Sales forecasting plays a prominent role in business planning and business strategy. The value and importance of advance information is a cornerstone of planning activity, and a well-set forecast goal can guide sale-force more efficiently. In this paper CPU sales forecasting of Intel Corporation, a multinational semico…
Optimal transport distances help impute missing data.
problem Missing data in real-world datasets.
method Use optimal transport distances as a loss function to impute missing data values.
result OT-based methods match or outperform state-of-the-art imputation methods.
Using artificial neural network for the prediction of heat demand has attracted more and more attention. Weather conditions, such as ambient temperature, wind speed and direct solar irradiance, have been identified as key input parameters. In order to further improve the model accuracy, it is of great importance to und…
Predict stock prices using financial news sentiment analysis.
problem Predicting stock market trends for better investment returns.
method Deep Learning (MLP, LSTM, FinBERT-LSTM) integrating news sentiment.
result FinBERT-LSTM model predicts stock prices more accurately.
Due to the significance of transportation planning, traffic management, and dispatch optimization, predicting passenger origin-destination has emerged as a crucial requirement for intelligent transportation systems management. In this study, we present a model designed to forecast the origin and destination of travels …