Study develops a new tool for assessing asphalt pavement conditions using deep learning.
problem Challenges in automated pavement distress detection via road images.
method Developed a hybrid model using YOLO for classification and U-net for segmentation, creating a comprehensive pavement condition tool.
result Created a new asphalt pavement condition index using deep learning.
SVM methods improve tack coat classification in French pavements.
problem Classifying thin tack coat layers in GPR data.
method Inverse Machine Learning approach applied to SVM/SVR methods.
result SVM/SVR methods accurately classify tack coat emulsion proportions.
Automated pavement distresses detection using road images remains a challenging topic in the computer vision research community. Recent developments in deep learning has led to considerable research activity directed towards improving the efficacy of automated pavement distress identification and rating. Deep learning …
To date, pavement management software products and studies on optimizing the prioritization of pavement maintenance and rehabilitation (M&R) have been mainly focused on three parameters; the pre-treatment pavement condition, the rehabilitation cost, and the available budget. Yet, the role of the candidate projects' spa…
Paper uses machine learning to estimate IRI from pavement distress types, densities, and severities.
problem Costly IRI measurements exclude many road classes; estimating IRI from distress data is needed.
method Data from in-service pavements; machine learning methods used to predict IRI.
result Machine learning can reliably estimate IRI based on distress types, densities, and severities.
The study focuses on the experiment of using three different smartphones to collect acceleration data from vibration for the road roughness detection. The Android operating system is used in the application. The study takes place on asphaltic pavement of the expressway system of Thailand, with 9 km distance. The run ve…
Paper proposes machine learning models for more accurate road inspection.
problem Traditional road inspection systems have safety, energy, and cost issues.
method Hybrid machine learning models using surface deflection data from FWD tests.
result CMIS model outperforms other models with APRE=2.3303, AAPRE=11.6768, RMSE=12.0056, and SD=0.0210.
CPA framework assesses conditional validity of conformal prediction.
problem Challenges in evaluating conditional validity of conformal prediction.
method Reframes conditional coverage evaluation as a supervised learning task.
result Establishes convergence rates and proves CVI consistency.
Study improves data quality assessment for structural monitoring data.
problem Ensuring reliability of structural health monitoring data.
method Probabilistic data quality assessment using a conditional diffusion model.
result Significantly improves accuracy of data quality assessment.
Proposes CCE to assess point-wise reliability of neural network predictions.
problem Overconfidence and misaligned predictive distributions in neural networks.
method Introduces Conditional Congruence (CCE) metric using conditional kernel mean embeddings.
result CCE exhibits correctness, monotonicity, reliability, and robustness in high-dimensional regression tasks.
Generative models assess quality on time-series data using ITS and FITD.
problem Lack of consensus for quality assessment of class-conditional generative models on time-series data.
method Introduced InceptionTime Score (ITS) and Frechet InceptionTime Distance (FITD) to evaluate generative models.
result ITS and FITD combined with TSTR can accurately assess generative model performance on time-series data.
Enhances Transformers for better risk assessment in finance.
problem Transformer models lack sensitivity to extreme financial losses.
method Integrates Loss-at-Risk function with Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR).
result Improves risk prediction and management in financial datasets.
Model assesses loan profitability under changing credit conditions.
problem Financial institutions face risks of default and prepayment.
method Develops a Random Net Present Value (RNPV) model to evaluate profitability.
result Mean and variance of RNPV calculated at individual and portfolio levels.
Classifiers based on probabilistic graphical models are very effective. In continuous domains, maximum likelihood is usually used to assess the predictions of those classifiers. When data is scarce, this can easily lead to overfitting. In any probabilistic setting, Bayesian averaging (BA) provides theoretically optimal…
The book chapter discusses tail risk analysis for financial data using extreme value statistics.
problem Serial dependence in financial time series complicates tail risk assessment.
method The approach involves unconditional and conditional quantile forecasting.
result Serial dependence impacts multivariate tail dependence.
DRF improves confidence and uncertainty assessment for multivariate conditional distributions.
problem Estimating multivariate conditional distributions with confidence and uncertainty.
method Developed a bootstrap approximation of the asymptotic distribution of DRF to derive inferential tools.
result Asymptotic coverage guarantees for confidence regions and hypothesis testing.
Study evaluates deep learning methods for dermatology, finding they perform poorly under non-ideal conditions.
problem Lack of robustness of deep learning methods in dermatology under real-world conditions.
method Simulated non-ideal conditions on user-submitted dermatology images.
result Deep learning methods show significant drop in accuracy and prediction changes under non-ideal conditions.
The paper analyzes the risk of investing in a basket of 27 cryptocurrencies using statistical distributions.
problem Risk assessment of capital allocation in a basket of cryptocurrencies.
method Used statistical tests to determine the most appropriate distribution (SDI) for modeling returns, and adapted the generalized Pareto distribution for tail risk assessment.
result Found that a combination of stable and generalized Pareto distributions provides a more accurate risk assessment for the basket of cryptocurrencies.
Adopting a zonal structure of electricity market requires specification of zones' borders. In this paper we use social welfare as the measure to assess quality of various zonal divisions. The social welfare is calculated by Market Coupling algorithm. The analyzed divisions are found by the usage of extended Locational …
Dynamic acquisition of features improves predictions with limited data.
problem Limited or uncertain data requires additional relevant information for accurate assessments.
method Proposes models that dynamically acquire new features using conditional mutual information and arbitrary conditional flow.
result Demonstrates superior performance over baselines in multiple settings.
Huber regression assessed for robustness in statistical learning.
problem Understanding Huber regression in nonparametric statistical learning.
method Assessment from statistical learning perspective, focusing on risk consistency, adaptive tuning, and convergence rates.
result Huber regression can be asymptotically mean regression calibrated under (1+ε)-moment conditions, justifying its robustness. This work assesses DNNs for estimating conditional probabilities.
problem Lack of uncertainty characterization in DNNs for probabilistic applications.
method Investigates DNNs' ability to estimate conditional probabilities using synthetic and real-world datasets.
result DNNs' precision in estimating conditional probabilities is influenced by probability density and inter-categorical sparsity.
C-FAR automates clustering assessment for neural tracking.
problem Manual assessment of clusters by humans is slow and impractical for large datasets.
method C-FAR uses automated feedback queries to select optimal clustering from multiple algorithms.
result C-FAR produces near-perfect clustering on simulated neural data.
New method approximates CV for model assessment and selection.
problem Efficient model assessment and selection with large number of folds.
method Approximates expensive refitting with a single Newton step warm-started from full training set optimizer.
result Uniform non-asymptotic, deterministic model assessment guarantees for approximate CV.
MIRA scores assess conditional distribution accuracy using joint samples.
problem Assessing the accuracy of candidate conditional distributions.
method Analytic expression for Mira score based on equal probability mass regions.
result Mira enables Bayesian model comparison by quantifying alignment with true process.
A new method evaluates invariant performance of IRM-based representations.
problem Impact of data changes on machine learning model performance.
method Proposes a novel method to evaluate invariant performance of IRM-based representations.
result Establishes a robust criterion to assess invariant performance of various representation techniques.
Automated rock fragmentation assessment using deep learning and spatial statistics.
problem Assessing post-blast rock fragmentation in real-time.
method Fine-tuned YOLO12l-seg model for instance segmentation, followed by spatial statistics.
result Framework accurately assesses rock fragmentation patterns in real-time.
Synthesizing high resolution photorealistic images has been a long-standing challenge in machine learning. In this paper we introduce new methods for the improved training of generative adversarial networks (GANs) for image synthesis. We construct a variant of GANs employing label conditioning that results in 128x128 r…
Improved market state classification for risk assessment.
problem Classifying financial market states for better risk assessment.
method Modified selection criteria for market states, clustering optimization, and visualization of correlation matrices.
result Statistically significant results in SP 500 and Nikkei 225 markets.
Study uses generative models to assess credit risk and determine loan sizes in e-commerce supply chain finance.
problem Credit risk assessment and loan size determination for small- and medium-sized sellers in e-commerce supply chain finance.
method Proposes a unified framework using Quantile-Regression-based Generative Metamodeling (QRGMM) integrated with Deep Factorization Machines (DeepFM) to capture complex covariate interactions in e-commerce sales data.
result Validates the model's efficacy for credit risk assessment and loan size determination on synthetic and real-world data.
ABROCA assesses algorithmic bias, revealing skewed distributions that inflate results.
problem Detecting nuanced performance differences in classifier fairness.
method Study of ABROCA metric's statistical properties under various conditions.
result ABROCA distributions are skewed, inflating results by chance in imbalanced classes.
A new method assesses regression models' global optimality.
problem Challenges in evaluating regression models without access to true data.
method Information Teacher framework based on Shannon mutual information.
result Demonstrates capability to detect global optimality.
Neural networks assess asset-liability risk over time.
problem Challenging valuation of portfolios with complex products.
method Neural network approach for conditional portfolio valuation.
result Effective risk assessment for banking and insurance portfolios.
We quantify predictive uncertainty using the posterior predictive variance.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in predictive models.
method Using the law of total variance, we generate expansions for the posterior predictive variance.
result Identify the main contributors to prediction intervals and quantify term-wise uncertainty.
The study simplifies assessing overlap in logistic regression models using empirical likelihood.
problem Assessing overlap in multidimensional logistic regression models.
method Translation of Silvapulle's condition to empirical likelihood maximization, mechanized with R code.
result Minimal overlapping structures are cataloged in dimensions less than four, providing rules for higher dimensions.
CoLT assesses neural posterior estimates by detecting discrepancies across conditioning inputs.
problem Validating neural posterior estimates from limited data.
method Conditional Localization Test (CoLT) learns a localization function to detect strong deviations.
result CoLT provides rigorous guarantees and practical scalability for comparing true and neural posterior distributions.
The paper assesses the risk of negative treatment effects using bounds and inference.
problem Risk of negative treatment effects on a significant portion of the population.
method Characterizes tight bounds on the conditional value at risk (CVaR) of the individual treatment effect (ITE) distribution using covariate-conditional average treatment effect (CATE) function.
result Developed a debiasing method to estimate these bounds efficiently from data and construct confidence intervals, even in complex scenarios.
CPI overcomes limitations of permutation importance by providing accurate variable selection.
problem Misidentification of unimportant variables in complex models due to covariate correlations.
method Developed a model agnostic and computationally lean Conditional Permutation Importance (CPI) approach.
result CPI provides accurate type-I error control and more parsimonious variable selection.
This paper provides a unified framework, which allows, in particular, to study the structure of dynamic monetary risk measures and dynamic acceptability indices. The main mathematical tool, which we use here, and which allows us to significantly generalize existing results is the theory of L0-modules. In the first p…
Study assesses health plan risk measures for Solvency Capital Requirement.
problem Assessing risk measures for health plans to meet Solvency Capital Requirement.
method Three-part regression model with three GLMs for claim counts, episode allocation, and severity.
result Reduction in regression models compared to traditional methods.
New test assesses probabilistic model calibration without expensive approximations.
problem Assessing calibration of probabilistic models with scores.
method Kernel Calibration Conditional Stein Discrepancy (KCCSD) test using new score-based kernels.
result Control over type-I error with improved scalability and efficiency.
Bayesian framework uses unlabeled data to improve fairness assessment.
problem Reliable fairness assessment with limited labeled data.
method Hierarchical latent variable model with Bayesian inference.
result Significant reduction in estimation error for fairness metrics.
Study introduces new financial ratios for better predicting company performance.
problem Lack of progress in predicting company performance and assessing financial risks.
method Developed new financial and macroeconomic ratios, supervised learning models, and Bayesian models.
result New proposed variables improve model accuracy and FNN performs best across multiple tasks.
Paper introduces risk assessment for contextual bandits without experiments.
problem Evaluate policies using logged data in context bandits.
method Lipschitz risk functionals and Off-Policy Risk Assessment (OPRA) framework.
result OPRA provides finite sample guarantees for various risk estimates.
Study assesses drought and late-frost risks in Bavaria using vine copulas.
problem Assessing risks of late-frost and drought in Bavaria due to climate change.
method Used vine copula models for non-Gaussian and asymmetric dependencies, with univariate and bivariate regression analyses.
result Identified 'at-risk' regions for forest adaptation.
We axiomatically introduce risk-consistent conditional systemic risk measures defined on multidimensional risks. This class consists of those conditional systemic risk measures which can be decomposed into a state-wise conditional aggregation and a univariate conditional risk measure. Our studies extend known results f…
Assessment of mental workload in real-world conditions is key to ensure the performance of workers executing tasks that demand sustained attention. Previous literature has employed electroencephalography (EEG) to this end despite having observed that EEG correlates of mental workload vary across subjects and physical s…
Measuring the corporate default risk is broadly important in economics and finance. Quantitative methods have been developed to predictively assess future corporate default probabilities. However, as a more difficult yet crucial problem, evaluating the uncertainties associated with the default predictions remains littl…