New definition of patient-specific root causes of disease using counterfactuals.
problem Lack of rigorous mathematical formulation for automatic detection of root causes.
method Proposes a counterfactual definition matching clinical intuition and uses Shapley values for causal contribution scores.
result Adapts to disease prevalence, accounts for noisy labels, and admits fast computation.
New model identifies patient-specific disease root causes.
problem Identifying root causes of complex diseases varying between patients.
method Generalized Root Causal Inference (GRCI) algorithm for heteroscedastic noise model.
result GRCI accurately extracts patient-specific root causes.
Identifies patient-specific root causes of disease using structural equation models.
problem Detecting significant variables in complex diseases that differ between patients.
method Defining patient-specific root causes as exogenous errors in a structural equation model, quantifying predictivity using Shapley values, and developing a fast algorithm called Root Causal Inference.
result Significant improvements in accuracy by uncovering root causes with large effect sizes at the individual level but clinically insignificant effect sizes at the group level.
Identifies root causes of outliers in unknown cyclic graphs.
problem Outliers in unknown cyclic graphs with linear structural equations.
method Identifies a short list of potential root causes based on strong perturbation and structural equations.
result The shortlist includes true root causes and their parents on the cycle.
CROC identifies the earliest-changing stream as the root cause in multi-stream data.
problem Distribution-free root cause analysis in multi-stream data with unknown distributional changes.
method Conformal p-values and finite-sample valid confidence sets.
result CROC efficiently isolates the root cause under minimal assumptions.
Paper simplifies calculating causation probabilities and ranks root causes.
problem Computational challenges in assessing causal relationships.
method Algorithmic simplifications and novel methodological framework for Root Cause Analysis.
result Significantly reduces computational complexity for calculating causation probabilities.
New method identifies root causes in presence of latent confounding.
problem Identifying root causes in the presence of latent variables.
method Extract Errors with Latents (EEL) procedure for inferring root causes.
result Superior accuracy and robustness compared to previous methods.
The recent increase in the scale and complexity of software systems has introduced new challenges to the time series monitoring and anomaly detection process. A major drawback of existing anomaly detection methods is that they lack contextual information to help stakeholders identify the cause of anomalies. This proble…
Paper tackles anomaly detection with missing causal knowledge.
problem Detect anomalies with missing structural knowledge.
method Simple, efficient methods for polytree causal graphs.
result Heuristic identifies root causes based on anomaly scores.
New method combines FMEA and Bayesian Network for root cause analysis in lithium-ion battery production.
problem Complex cause-effect relationships in lithium-ion battery production.
method Combining FMEA with Bayesian Network to detect and resolve inconsistencies.
result Holistic method builds large-scale cross-process Bayesian Failure Network for root cause analysis.
Performance monitoring, anomaly detection, and root-cause analysis in complex cyber-physical systems (CPSs) are often highly intractable due to widely diverse operational modes, disparate data types, and complex fault propagation mechanisms. This paper presents a new data-driven framework for root-cause analysis, based…
Paper adapts causal analysis for time-dependent systems, especially energy management.
problem Challenges in root-cause analysis for systems with lagged time-dependencies, particularly in energy management.
method Adapts causal root-cause analysis method to time-dependent systems, discusses two truncation approaches.
result Extension effectively localizes root-causes in feature and time domain with enough lags.
Method identifies root causes of anomalies in causal processes.
problem Identifying root causes of anomalies in causal processes.
method Noisy functional causal model, Bayesian learning, gradient-based attribution.
result Proposes efficient method to compute anomaly attribution scores.
Paper tackles anomaly detection and RCA in dynamical systems using ICODE Networks.
problem Anomalies in dynamical systems impact performance and reliability.
method Proposes ICODE Networks for anomaly detection, RCA, and type classification.
result Demonstrates the ability to accurately detect anomalies, classify types, and pinpoint origins.
CD-RCA method identifies causal relationships in prediction errors without predefined graphs.
problem Challenges in diagnosing prediction errors due to lack of transparency in black-box models.
method Causal-Discovery-based Root-Cause Analysis (CD-RCA) method that estimates causal relationships without predefined causal graphs.
result CD-RCA outperforms heuristic attribution methods in identifying variable contributions to prediction errors.
Efficiently fine-tunes patient-independent seizure detection models with tensor kernel machine.
problem Improving seizure detection accuracy for wearable devices.
method Transfer learning with tensor kernel machine using canonical polyadic decomposition.
result Patient fine-tuned model achieves high performance with smaller model size.
Deep neural networks (DNNs) are shown to be promising solutions in many challenging artificial intelligence tasks. However, it is very hard to figure out whether the low precision of a DNN model is an inevitable result, or caused by defects. This paper aims at addressing this challenging problem. We find that the inter…
FalconBC improves patient-specific cardiovascular modeling by estimating boundary conditions efficiently.
problem Efficiently estimating boundary conditions in patient-specific cardiovascular models, especially in open-loop models and anatomies with lesions.
method A general amortized inference framework based on probabilistic flow that treats clinical targets and anatomies as conditioning variables.
result Demonstrated on two patient-specific models, FalconBC improves efficiency and accuracy in estimating boundary conditions.
RAID algorithm detects anomalies in real-time IoT systems.
problem Anomaly detection limitations in multivariate dynamic processes.
method Adapts to non-stationary effects and handles data drift.
result Improved detection accuracy and root cause isolation.
Root cause analysis in a large-scale production environment is challenging due to the complexity of services running across global data centers. Due to the distributed nature of a large-scale system, the various hardware, software, and tooling logs are often maintained separately, making it difficult to review the logs…
Deep CNN-RNN model classifies breathing sounds for respiratory disease diagnosis.
problem Automated diagnosis of respiratory diseases using wearable devices.
method Patient-specific model tuning and local log quantization of weights.
result 71.81% accuracy on leave-one-out validation with patient-specific data.
Root Cause Analysis for Anomalies is challenging because of the trade-off between the accuracy and its explanatory friendliness, required for industrial applications. In this paper we propose a framework for simple and friendly RCA within the Bayesian regime under certain restrictions (that Hessian at the mode is diago…
Unlike traditional programs (such as operating systems or word processors) which have large amounts of code, machine learning tasks use programs with relatively small amounts of code (written in machine learning libraries), but voluminous amounts of data. Just like developers of traditional programs debug errors in the…
NetRCA algorithm locates network faults by analyzing derived features and leveraging unlabeled data.
problem Locating the true root cause of network faults is challenging due to complex architectures and limited labeled data.
method NetRCA algorithm extracts derived features, generates new training data, and combines multiple models to enhance performance.
result NetRCA outperforms existing methods in fault cause localization on real-world data.
New method falsifies causal graphs using outlier events.
problem Inferring causal relationships from data is hard.
method Falsify candidate causal graphs based on outlier propagation.
result Statistical tests control false positives and have power guarantees.
Accurate models of patient survival probabilities provide important information to clinicians prescribing care for life-threatening and terminal ailments. A recently developed class of models - known as individual survival distributions (ISDs) - produces patient-specific survival functions that offer greater descriptiv…
We describe a formal approach to identify 'root causes' of outliers observed in n variables X1,…,Xn in a scenario where the causal relation between the variables is a known directed acyclic graph (DAG). To this end, we first introduce a systematic way to define outlier scores. Further, we introduce the concep…
New approach identifies and explains errors in machine learning pipelines.
problem Challenges in identifying and explaining errors in complex machine learning pipelines.
method Uses iteration and provenance to automatically infer root causes of failures.
result Significantly improves precision and recall compared to state-of-the-art methods.
Personalized models explain TB treatment outcomes considering patient context.
problem Heterogeneity in TB treatment outcomes due to co-morbidities.
method Multi-task learning approach encoding patient context into personalized models.
result Identifies anemia, age of onset, and HIV as influential for treatment efficacy.
The paper proposes a new probability distribution for rooted trees.
problem Overfitting in tree selection for statistical models.
method Bayesian approach with a generalized probability distribution for rooted trees.
result Recursive methods to evaluate the probability distribution without approximations.
Paper tackles RCA in complex networks with unknown interdependencies.
problem Difficult RCA in networked systems due to unknown interdependencies.
method Federated learning for feature-partitioned, nonlinear data without modifying client models.
result Established theoretical convergence guarantees and validated on real-world data.
Multi-output Gaussian processes (GPs) are a flexible Bayesian nonparametric framework that has proven useful in jointly modeling the physiological states of patients in medical time series data. However, capturing the short-term effects of drugs and therapeutic interventions on patient physiological state remains chall…
Study finds RNNs predict STBG better than ARIMA, useful for diabetes patients.
problem Improving short-term blood glucose prediction for diabetes management.
method Investigated Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) and compared them to ARIMA for STBG prediction.
result Population-based RNN model outperforms ARIMA across various prediction horizons.
An accurate model of patient-specific kidney graft survival distributions can help to improve shared-decision making in the treatment and care of patients. In this paper, we propose a deep learning method that directly models the survival function instead of estimating the hazard function to predict survival times for …
Local convolutions bias neural networks towards high-frequency adversarial examples.
problem High-frequency adversarial examples in neural networks.
method Analysis of different linear and nonlinear architectures, focusing on the impact of local convolution operations.
result Local convolutions induce an implicit bias towards high frequency features, leading to high-frequency adversarial examples.
New method differentiates square-root Kalman filters robustly.
problem Gradient calculation issues in square-root Kalman filters.
method Closed-form chain rule derived from Gramian identity, resolves non-orthogonal and rank-deficient issues.
result Robust automatic differentiation for Kalman filters, resolving numerical stability and gradient issues.
The square root of Fredholm determinants causes numerical instabilities in option pricing models.
problem Numerical instabilities in Fourier-based option pricing for the Volterra Stein-Stein model.
method Characterization of determinant crossing behavior, derivation of transform to handle crossings, efficient algorithms.
result Significant improvement in accuracy and reduction in computational cost for Fourier-based pricing.
In this paper we propose a new method to assist in labeling data arriving from fast running processes using anomaly detection. A result is the possibility to manually classify data arriving at a high rates to train machine learning models. To circumvent the problem of not having a real ground truth we propose specific …
We consider the problem of classifying business process instances based on structural features derived from event logs. The main motivation is to provide machine learning based techniques with quick response times for interactive computer assisted root cause analysis. In particular, we create structural features from p…
Boundary effects inflate variance in Gaussian processes, leading to acquisition bias.
problem Boundary-induced acquisition bias in Gaussian processes.
method Traced root cause to geometric mechanism of kernel truncation at domain boundaries.
result Boundary effects create distortion that worsens with dimensionality, affecting acquisition behavior.
In practice daily volatility of portfolio returns is transformed to longer holding periods by multiplying by the square-root of time which assumes that returns are not serially correlated. Under this assumption this procedure of scaling can also be applied to contributions to volatility of the assets in the portfolio. …
Unified framework for generating data by modeling causal and correlational dependencies.
problem Modeling both causal and correlational dependencies among latent factors.
method Causal-Correlation Variational Autoencoder (C2VAE) framework.
result Improves generation quality, disentanglement, and intervention fidelity.
The paper estimates personalized treatment effects in medical settings with competing risks.
problem Estimating treatment effectiveness for specific events in the presence of alternative event types.
method Meta-learners combining Cox regression or random survival forests for risk modeling and elastic net regression or random forests for direct CATE modeling.
result Compared meta-learners in multiple simulation settings, providing practical guidance for model selection.
Although modern portfolio theory has been in existence for over 60 years, fund managers often struggle to get its models to produce reliable portfolio allocations without strongly constraining the decision vector by tight bands of strategic allocation targets. The two main root causes to this problem are inadequate par…
DoWhy-GCM extends causal inference in graphical models for diverse queries.
problem Addressing diverse causal queries in graphical causal models.
method Specify cause-effect relations via a causal graph, fit causal mechanisms, pose causal queries.
result Identification of root causes, attribution of causal influences, diagnosis of causal structures.
We consider predicting the user's head motion in 360-degree videos, with 2 modalities only: the past user's positions and the video content (not knowing other users' traces). We make two main contributions. First, we re-examine existing deep-learning approaches for this problem and identify hidden flaws from a thorough…
Generative adversarial networks fix aliasing issues by making signals continuous.
problem Alias-free generation in GANs to prevent unwanted information leakage.
method Interpreting all signals as continuous, deriving small architectural changes.
result Generative models match FID of StyleGAN2 but have better internal representations.
Vehicular Ad-hoc NETworks (VANET) can efficiently detect traffic congestion, but detection is not enough because congestion can be further classified as recurrent and non-recurrent congestion (NRC). In particular, NRC in an urban network is mainly caused by incidents, workzones, special events and adverse weather. We p…