A new method predicts future paths using a Monte-Carlo approach.
problem Predicting future financial paths given historical data.
method Path Shadowing Monte-Carlo method using maximum entropy model.
result Yields state-of-the-art predictions for future volatility and option smiles.
In this paper we use a time-evolving graph which consists of a sequence of graph snapshots over time to model many real-world networks. We study the path classification problem in a time-evolving graph, which has many applications in real-world scenarios, for example, predicting path failure in a telecommunication netw…
One-shot path planning for multiple agents using neural networks.
problem Efficiently generating optimal or near-optimal paths for multiple agents in robotics.
method Utilizes fully convolutional neural networks for one-shot multi-agent path planning.
result Demonstrates successful generation of optimal or near-optimal paths in over 85% of cases for multi-path planning.
Paper presents a copula-based method to efficiently generate correlated sample paths from multi-step time series models.
problem Generating realistic correlation structures in multi-step forecast sample paths is expensive and time-consuming.
method Copula-based approach to generate correlated sample paths in one forward pass.
result Improved sample path quality and significant speedup over autoregressive sampling.
Develops a new causal model for path-dependent link prediction.
problem Existing causal models assume fixed node factors, but real-world links can depend on existing ones.
method Introduces causal lifting and structural pairwise embeddings for path-dependent link prediction.
result Validated on three scenarios, demonstrating improved accuracy for causal link prediction.
Paper develops approximation and statistical theory for signature-based path regression.
problem Understanding how fast signatures approximate continuous path functionals.
method Develops \(L^2\) approximation rate for smooth functionals of Itô diffusions and establishes consistency of statistical learning procedures.
result Signature-based methods improve prediction over handcrafted features in various real-data applications.
We consider the problem of path inference: given a path prefix, i.e., a partially observed sequence of nodes in a graph, we want to predict which nodes are in the missing suffix. In particular, we focus on natural paths occurring as a by-product of the interaction of an agent with a network---a driver on the transporta…
Predicts next actions in soccer possessions using path signatures.
problem Predicting next actions in soccer possessions with high accuracy.
method Leveraging path signatures to encode spatio-temporal structure of recent possessions, avoiding manual feature engineering.
result Our approach outperforms transformer-based benchmarks across various loss metrics and reduces computational cost.
PathBoost boosts graph-level predictions using path-based features.
problem Graph-level classification and regression challenges.
method Gradient tree boosting method for graph-level prediction.
result PathBoost outperforms graph neural networks and graph kernel approaches in many cases.
Although various linear log-distance path loss models have been developed, advanced models are requiring to more accurately and flexibly represent the path loss for complex environments such as the urban area. This letter proposes an artificial neural network (ANN) based multi-dimensional regression framework for path …
Improved bipartite link prediction using 2-hop paths.
problem Link prediction in bipartite networks without node attributes.
method Multiply reconstructed adjacency matrix with symmetrically normalized training adjacency matrix to form 2-hop paths.
result 2-hop paths improve link prediction performance.
In this thesis, we study the problem of feature learning on heterogeneous knowledge graphs. These features can be used to perform tasks such as link prediction, classification and clustering on graphs. Knowledge graphs provide rich semantics encoded in the edge and node types. Meta-paths consist of these types and abst…
Deep learning predicts path-dependent processes from historical data.
problem Predicting path-dependent processes using historical data.
method Nonparametric regression with deep neural networks.
result Deep learning method converges to theoretical predictions as observation frequency increases.
Path signatures help predict seizures from brain activity.
problem Predicting future seizures from EEG data is challenging.
method Path signature analysis for mapping EEG time series to seizure prediction.
result Path signature method achieves similar results to modern machine learning.
A Bayesian framework models dynamic probability predictions over time.
problem Dynamic probability predictions over time in various settings.
method Gaussian latent information martingale (GLIM) framework.
result GLIM outperforms baseline methods in predicting future uncertainties.
This paper proposes a new approach to RL by focusing on the value-improvement path.
problem Value prediction problems in RL are sequence-dependent and require holistic approach.
method Characterize and approximate the value-improvement path holistically.
result A representation that spans the value-improvement path provides accurate value approximations for future policy improvements.
The paper predicts cryptocurrency prices using a path-dependent Monte Carlo simulation.
problem Forecasting cryptocurrency prices with volatility and jumps.
method Merton's jump diffusion model with machine learning, traditional, and statistical methods.
result Introduced a path-dependent Monte Carlo simulation for cryptocurrency price prediction.
Neural network learns from higher-order connections in molecules.
problem Graph neural networks fail to account for local and hidden structures in graphs.
method Developed a neural network that can pass messages and aggregate information across higher-order paths.
result The model improves molecular property prediction.
Researchers compare different gradient methods for ridge regression, finding conjugate gradients have similar performance.
problem Comparing statistical properties of different gradient methods in ridge regression.
method Explicit non-standard error decomposition to bound prediction error of conjugate gradient iterates.
result Conjugate gradient iterates share optimality properties with gradient flow and ridge regression up to a constant factor.
A novel signature method improves sequential data prediction accuracy.
problem Improving prediction accuracy for sequential and temporal data.
method Signature method based on rough path theory, with a specific embedding called lead-lag.
result Lead-lag embedding consistently outperforms other embeddings across various datasets and algorithms.
New framework for fairness in continuous protected attributes.
problem Inherited biases in AI predictions with continuous protected attributes.
method Formalizes SP and PP through path-specific partial derivatives, introduces a fair tuning algorithm.
result Existence and construction of fair predictors that satisfy SP along not-allowed paths and PP along allowed paths.
Research uses CPS to estimate uncertainty in ML radio metric models.
problem Estimating uncertainty in machine learning models for radio metrics and path loss.
method Conformal Prediction (CP) in Conformal Predictive Systems (CPS) with diverse difficulty estimators.
result CPS models maintain high coverage and reliability across different cities.
A model predicts influential nodes in complex networks by considering indirect interactions.
problem Identifying influential nodes in complex networks using indirect interactions.
method Proposes MOGen, a multi-order generative model that considers all indirect influences up to a maximum distance.
result MOGen consistently outperforms network models and path-based approaches in predicting influential nodes.
Temporal aggregation reveals latent default correlation from monthly data.
problem Understanding effective default correlation from monthly default data.
method Temporal coarse-graining of latent default-probability paths.
result Temporal coarse-graining improves identifiability and reduces over-allocation of long-horizon fluctuations.
Signature kernel scoring rule improves weather forecasting by capturing temporal and spatial dependencies.
problem Lack of suitable scoring rules for probabilistic weather forecasting.
method Reframe weather variables as continuous paths using iterated integrals (signature kernels) to capture temporal and spatial dependencies.
result Signature kernel scoring rule outperforms conventional methods in weather forecasting, especially for long-term forecasts.
Temporal coarse-graining of latent default paths explains effective correlation in corporate defaults.
problem Understanding effective default correlation in corporate defaults.
method Temporal coarse-graining of latent default-probability paths, applied to corporate default-count data.
result Temporal coarse-graining provides a scale-consistent baseline that improves identifiability and reduces over-allocation of long-horizon fluctuations.
New method for predicting paths of unpredictable objects with high confidence.
problem Need for dependable uncertainty estimates in motion planning with diverse unpredictable objects.
method Blend online conformal prediction, multiple time series techniques, and heteroscedasticity addressing.
result Simultaneous forecasting bands that cover entire paths with high probability.
A generalized bridge is the law of a stochastic process that is conditioned on N linear functionals of its path. We consider two types of representations of such bridges: orthogonal and canonical. The orthogonal representation is constructed from the entire path of the underlying process. Thus, future knowledge of the …
We use GANs and signatures to approximate conditional laws in filtering and prediction of diffusion processes.
problem Approximating conditional laws for diffusion processes with noisy observations.
method Conditional GANs combined with signatures for approximation.
result Efficient approximation of conditional laws for diffusion processes.
We study the problem of online path learning with non-additive gains, which is a central problem appearing in several applications, including ensemble structured prediction. We present new online algorithms for path learning with non-additive count-based gains for the three settings of full information, semi-bandit and…
The problem at the heart of this tutorial consists in modeling the path choice behavior of network users. This problem has been extensively studied in transportation science, where it is known as the route choice problem. In this literature, individuals' choice of paths are typically predicted using discrete choice mod…
New probability path model improves flow matching forecasting performance.
problem Impact of probability path model selection on flow matching forecasting performance.
method Proposed a novel probability path model designed to improve forecasting performance.
result Our model achieves faster convergence during training and improved predictive performance compared to existing models.
We propose an algorithm for exploring the entire regularization path of asymmetric-cost linear support vector machines. Empirical evidence suggests the predictive power of support vector machines depends on the regularization parameters of the training algorithms. The algorithms exploring the entire regularization path…
Recently, how to expand data transmission to reduce cell data and repeated cell transmission has received more and more research attention. In mobile social networks, content popularity prediction has always been an important part of traffic offloading and expanding data dissemination. However, current mainstream conte…
Proposes a method to improve graph neural networks on heterogeneous graphs using meta-paths.
problem Improving graph neural networks on heterogeneous graphs with auxiliary tasks.
method Self-supervised auxiliary learning with meta-paths for heterogeneous graphs.
result Consistently improves link prediction and node classification on heterogeneous graphs.
In this paper we provide a pricing-hedging duality for the model-independent superhedging price with respect to a prediction set Ξ⊆C[0,T], where the superhedging property needs to hold pathwise, but only for paths lying in Ξ. For any Borel measurable claim ξ which is bounded from below, the superhedging …
Unified representation for tree ensembles indexed by nodes
problem Unifying geometric object for tree ensembles indexed by nodes
method KPP indexes feature map by nodes, weighted by path metric
result Unified non-diagonal Gram for prediction, additive attribution, robust radius, and risk bounds
Neural A* uses machine learning to improve path planning efficiency.
problem Challenges in applying machine learning to search-based path planning.
method Reformulated A* search as a differentiable network coupled with a convolutional encoder.
result Neural A* outperforms state-of-the-art planners in optimality and efficiency.
We investigate the multi-step prediction of the drivable space, represented by Occupancy Grid Maps (OGMs), for autonomous vehicles. Our motivation is that accurate multi-step prediction of the drivable space can efficiently improve path planning and navigation resulting in safe, comfortable and optimum paths in autonom…
An efficient computational algorithm to price financial derivatives is presented. It is based on a path integral formulation of the pricing problem. It is shown how the path integral approach can be worked out in order to obtain fast and accurate predictions for the value of a large class of options, including those wi…
Method predicts hardware resource usage by control software with guaranteed linear convergence.
problem Predicting time-varying hardware resource availability in control software.
method Path structured multimarginal Schrödinger bridge (MSBP) for learning stochastic resource usage.
result Guaranteed linear convergence to accurate prediction of hardware resource utilization.
Nested model averaging improves high-dimensional linear regression performance.
problem High-dimensional linear regression with predictor ordering impact.
method Combining model averaging with regularized estimators on the solution path.
result Nested model averaging with lasso and SLOPE outperforms competing methods.
Hurricanes are cyclones circulating about a defined center whose closed wind speeds exceed 75 mph originating over tropical and subtropical waters. At landfall, hurricanes can result in severe disasters. The accuracy of predicting their trajectory paths is critical to reduce economic loss and save human lives. Given th…
Collective classification has been intensively studied due to its impact in many important applications, such as web mining, bioinformatics and citation analysis. Collective classification approaches exploit the dependencies of a group of linked objects whose class labels are correlated and need to be predicted simulta…
New method observes learning paths to improve model supervision.
problem Improving model performance through better supervision.
method Observing learning paths to refine labels and propose Filter-KD.
result Models can refine bad labels through a 'zig-zag' learning path.
Graph edges, along with their labels, can represent information of fundamental importance, such as links between web pages, friendship between users, the rating given by users to other users or items, and much more. We introduce LEAP, a trainable, general framework for predicting the presence and properties of edges on…
Much of the recent work on learning molecular representations has been based on Graph Convolution Networks (GCN). These models rely on local aggregation operations and can therefore miss higher-order graph properties. To remedy this, we propose Path-Augmented Graph Transformer Networks (PAGTN) that are explicitly built…
New method predicts vehicle trajectories using map lane centers.
problem Accurate long-term vehicle trajectory prediction.
method Uses map lane centers to generate goal paths and predict trajectories.
result Model outperforms state-of-the-art approaches for 6-second horizon predictions.