Path-independent equilibrium models improve network performance on harder problems.
problem Improving network performance on harder problem instances.
method Investigated path-independent equilibrium models and their impact on network performance.
result Path independence correlates with better performance on harder problem instances.
Closed-form formulas for path-independent options in a specific Lévy model.
problem Valuation of path-independent options in the exponential NIG model.
method Closed-form pricing formulas derived using a factorized representation in Mellin space and complex analysis.
result Valid closed-form formulas with quickly convergent series for various options.
Overlay framework simplifies exotic derivative pricing.
problem Inconsistent pricing models for exotics.
method Combines path reweighting and conic optimisation.
result Practically model-independent price bands for exotics.
Recently, path norm was proposed as a new capacity measure for neural networks with Rectified Linear Unit (ReLU) activation function, which takes the rescaling-invariant property of ReLU into account. It has been shown that the generalization error bound in terms of the path norm explains the empirical generalization b…
New method identifies causal relationships in presence of hidden variables.
problem Identifying causal relationships when hidden variables exist.
method Established sufficient conditions and introduced a search algorithm.
result Proved soundness and completeness of the search algorithm.
Develops a model for causal discovery in path spaces.
problem Discover causal relationships in path spaces using asymmetric independence.
method Theory linking E-separation in DMGs to conditional independence in SDEs, proving global Markov property, characterizing equivalence classes of graphs.
result Each equivalence class of graphs has a greatest element as a parsimonious representation, which can be identified from data.
Extends PD-NJ-ODE to noisy observations and dependent observation times.
problem Predicting continuous-time stochastic processes with irregular and noisy observations.
method Extends PD-NJ-ODE to handle conditional independence and noisy observations.
result Theoretical guarantees and empirical examples for handling noisy observations and dependent observation times.
In this paper, we extend the first-order asymptotics analysis of Fouque et al. to general path-dependent financial derivatives using Dupire's functional Ito calculus. The main conclusion is that the market group parameters calibrated to vanilla options can be used to price to the same order exotic, path-dependent deriv…
One of the most fundamental problems in causal inference is the estimation of a causal effect when variables are confounded. This is difficult in an observational study, because one has no direct evidence that all confounders have been adjusted for. We introduce a novel approach for estimating causal effects that explo…
We solve the paradox of score-based methods by minimizing path variance.
problem Score-based methods are path-dependent, leading to inaccurate and unstable estimators.
method Propose MVP Principle to minimize path variance, derive closed-form expression, and use flexible Kumaraswamy Mixture Model.
result Establishes new state-of-the-art results on challenging benchmarks.
Paper presents a copula-based method to efficiently generate correlated sample paths from multi-step time series models.
problem Generating realistic correlation structures in multi-step forecast sample paths is expensive and time-consuming.
method Copula-based approach to generate correlated sample paths in one forward pass.
result Improved sample path quality and significant speedup over autoregressive sampling.
We prove that the model-free typical (in the sense of Vovk) càdlàg price paths with mildly restricted downward jumps possess quadratic variation which does not depend on the specific sequence of partitions as long as these partitions are obtained from stopping times such that the oscillations of a path on the consecuti…
A positive path in the linear symplectic group $\Sp(2n)$ is a smooth path which is everywhere tangent to the positive cone. These paths are generated by negative definite (time-dependent) quadratic Hamiltonian functions on Euclidean space. A special case are autonomous positive paths, which are generated by time-indepe…
Optimizes diffusion processes for target distributions.
problem Efficiently generating target distributions from point masses.
method Stochastic interpolant framework with conditional expectation drift.
result Optimal diffusion coefficient minimizes path-space KL divergence.
Solves complex equation for specific geometric solitons.
problem Solving complex Monge-Ampère equation for specific geometric solitons.
method Aubin continuity path and continuity method.
result Initial value of the path parameter has a solution and is open to all.
The paper proposes using path signatures for better inference in time series data.
problem Simulation models with time series data often lack tractable likelihood functions.
method Approximate Bayesian Computation with path signatures to handle sequential data.
result Theoretical guarantees on the resultant posteriors for Bayesian parameter inference.
Contact path geometries are curved geometric structures on a contact manifold comprising smooth families of paths modeled on the family of all isotropic lines in the projectivization of a symplectic vector space. Locally such a structure is equivalent to the graphs in the space of independent and depedent variables of …
This work develops a generic framework, called the bag-of-paths (BoP), for link and network data analysis. The central idea is to assign a probability distribution on the set of all paths in a network. More precisely, a Gibbs-Boltzmann distribution is defined over a bag of paths in a network, that is, on a representati…
New proof confirms rolling objects can follow any path.
problem Existence of rolling objects following any path.
method Geometric proof for period-n trajectoids.
result Existence of period-n trajectoids for any smooth curve.
Closed pricing formulas for Variance Gamma model payoffs.
problem Pricing path-independent payoffs in the Variance Gamma model.
method Mellin transform theory and multidimensional complex analysis.
result Closed-form pricing formulas with accelerated convergence for short-term options.
We introduce a new deep convolutional neural network, CrescendoNet, by stacking simple building blocks without residual connections. Each Crescendo block contains independent convolution paths with increased depths. The numbers of convolution layers and parameters are only increased linearly in Crescendo blocks. In exp…
The recently developed bag-of-paths (BoP) framework consists in setting a Gibbs-Boltzmann distribution on all feasible paths of a graph. This probability distribution favors short paths over long ones, with a free parameter (the temperature T) controlling the entropic level of the distribution. This formalism enables…
Study shows how feature weighting affects neural network regularization.
problem Understanding how feature weighting influences neural network regularization.
method Derived equivalence paths connecting different weighting matrices and ridge regularization levels.
result Ridge estimators trained on weighted features are asymptotically equivalent when evaluated against test vectors.
Tensor-based method simplifies causal skeleton discovery.
problem Discover causal relationships between variables.
method Express associations as tensors to reduce dimensionality.
result Causal skeleton can be determined using pair-wise tensors.
Study rough volatility models using path-dependent PDEs and fractional Brownian motions.
problem Modeling and analyzing rough volatility in financial markets.
method Showed conditional expectations are unique classical solutions to path-dependent PDEs derived from functional Itô formula. Leverage these to study weak rates of convergence for discretized stochastic integrals.
result Obtained optimal weak error rates for approximating log-stock prices in rough volatility models.
Many model selection algorithms produce a path of fits specifying a sequence of increasingly complex models. Given such a sequence and the data used to produce them, we consider the problem of choosing the least complex model that is not falsified by the data. Extending the selected-model tests of Fithian et al. (2014)…
Temporal aggregation reveals latent default correlation from monthly data.
problem Understanding effective default correlation from monthly default data.
method Temporal coarse-graining of latent default-probability paths.
result Temporal coarse-graining improves identifiability and reduces over-allocation of long-horizon fluctuations.
In this paper, we provide a model-independent extension of the paradigm of dynamic hedging of derivative claims. We relate model-independent replication strategies to local martingales having a closed form which we can characterise via solutions of coupled PDEs. We provide a general framework and then apply it to a mar…
Two constructions link path geometries to almost Grassmann structures.
problem Linking path geometries to almost Grassmann structures.
method Introducing two Fefferman-type constructions.
result Characterizing conditions for almost Grassmann structures arising from these constructions.
A new method detects anomalies in multivariate streams without unit dependence.
problem Detect anomalies in multivariate streams without unit dependence.
method Proposes SigMahaKNN combining variance norm and path signature.
result SigMahaKNN detects anomalies better than existing methods.
Temporal coarse-graining of latent default paths explains effective correlation in corporate defaults.
problem Understanding effective default correlation in corporate defaults.
method Temporal coarse-graining of latent default-probability paths, applied to corporate default-count data.
result Temporal coarse-graining provides a scale-consistent baseline that improves identifiability and reduces over-allocation of long-horizon fluctuations.
We establish causal semantics for SDEs and develop methods to reason about them.
problem Understanding causal relationships in systems modeled by stochastic differential equations.
method We introduce a causal graph framework, Markov properties, and do-calculus for SDEs.
result We prove the σ-separation Markov property and do-calculus for causal SDEs. A variance swap is a derivative with a path-dependent payoff which allows investors to take positions on the future variability of an asset. In the idealised setting of a continuously monitored variance swap written on an asset with continuous paths it is well known that the variance swap payoff can be replicated exact…
Study bounds financial path expectations using martingale distributions.
problem Bounding path-dependent financial expectations over martingale distributions.
method Relaxed martingale optimal transport problem, approximated via linear programming.
result Empirical relaxation can be approximated within O(n^(-1/2)) error.
Study shows saddle connection graph's geometry and quasi-isometry properties.
problem Characterize the geometry and quasi-isometry of saddle connection graphs.
method Proved 4-hyperbolicity and uniform quasi-isometry to a tree, used generalised unicorn paths.
result Saddle connection graph is not quasi-isometrically rigid and its boundary is straight foliations.
Develops a new causal model for path-dependent link prediction.
problem Existing causal models assume fixed node factors, but real-world links can depend on existing ones.
method Introduces causal lifting and structural pairwise embeddings for path-dependent link prediction.
result Validated on three scenarios, demonstrating improved accuracy for causal link prediction.
New approach tackles nonidentifiability in nonlinear blind source separation.
problem Nonidentifiability in nonlinear blind source separation.
method Independent mechanism analysis, incorporating causal assumptions.
result Empirical and theoretical evidence shows improved identifiability.
New method identifies causal structure in count data using cumulants and path analysis.
problem Challenges in discovering causal structure from count data, especially due to non-identifiability.
method Poisson Branching Structural Causal Model (PB-SCM) with path analysis using high-order cumulants.
result Causal order is identifiable under specific conditions in PB-SCM using cumulant information.
A new method for portfolio allocation in continuous-time markets.
problem Path-dependent portfolio allocation in continuous-time markets.
method Path-by-path framework, self-financing concept, partial differential equation, continuous-time algorithms.
result General explicit solution for wealth evolution in generic markets.
We propose to use deep neural networks for generating samples in Monte Carlo integration. Our work is based on non-linear independent components estimation (NICE), which we extend in numerous ways to improve performance and enable its application to integration problems. First, we introduce piecewise-polynomial couplin…
Starting from a sequence of independent Wright-Fisher diffusion processes on [0,1], we construct a class of reversible infinite dimensional diffusion processes on $\DD_\infty:= \{{\bf x}\in Let $MbeacompleteRiemnnianmanifoldandμthedistributionofthediffusionprocessgeneratedby\ff 1 2\DD+ZwhereZ$…
Geometric framework for inverse problems using foliations and dual connections.
problem Reconstruction problems in inverse problems.
method Vaisman foliations and Atiyah--Molino sequences to induce transverse foliations and dual connections.
result Unique, path-independent reconstruction with vanishing torsion and curvature duality.
Recently proposed budding tree is a decision tree algorithm in which every node is part internal node and part leaf. This allows representing every decision tree in a continuous parameter space, and therefore a budding tree can be jointly trained with backpropagation, like a neural network. Even though this continuity …
Enhances interpolation paths in latent space using particle filters.
problem Generating meaningful interpolations between data points in latent space.
method Introduces a discriminator network to guide particle filter sampling of interpolation paths.
result Improved variability and stronger drift towards high data density areas.
New framework for fairness in continuous protected attributes.
problem Inherited biases in AI predictions with continuous protected attributes.
method Formalizes SP and PP through path-specific partial derivatives, introduces a fair tuning algorithm.
result Existence and construction of fair predictors that satisfy SP along not-allowed paths and PP along allowed paths.
BWFlow improves graph generation by smoothly interpolating graph components.
problem Disjoint modeling of graph nodes and edges leads to irregular and non-smooth probability paths.
method Modeling graphs as MRFs and using optimal transport displacement for a smooth probability path.
result BWFlow achieves better training convergence and efficient sampling in graph generation.
The literature on statistical learning for time series assumes the asymptotic independence or ``mixing' of the data-generating process. These mixing assumptions are never tested, nor are there methods for estimating mixing rates from data. We give an estimator for the β-mixing rate based on a single stationary sample…
Efficient algorithms decide algebraic constraints of causal graphs.
problem Distinguish causal graphs with latent confounders.
method Study algebraic constraints and propose efficient algorithms.
result Decide equivalence or subset of algebraic constraints.