We derive a closed-form solution for the price of an average price as well as an average strike geometric Asian option, by making use of the path integral formulation. Our results are compared to a numerical Monte Carlo simulation. We also develop a pricing formula for an Asian option with a barrier on a control proces…
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48 results for “path averaging”
Nested model averaging improves high-dimensional linear regression performance.
problem High-dimensional linear regression with predictor ordering impact.
method Combining model averaging with regularized estimators on the solution path.
result Nested model averaging with lasso and SLOPE outperforms competing methods.
Q-learning for average cost MDPs gets a concentration bound.
problem Finding bounds for Q-learning in average cost MDPs.
method Derives a concentration bound using shortest path problem equivalence.
result Numerical comparison with relative value iteration shows the bound's effectiveness.
Solar: solution path averaging for fast and accurate variable selection in high-dimensional datastat.ML
Solar algorithm selects variables faster and more accurately in high-dimensional data.
problem Variable selection in high-dimensional data with high accuracy and stability.
method Subsample-ordered least-angle regression (solar) and its coordinate descent generalization (solar-cd) using norm solution path averaging.
result Solar selects variables with high accuracy and stability, reducing redundant variable selection.
Average signature measures geodesics in Lie groups.
problem Understanding geometric properties of Lie groups through geodesic paths.
method Introducing average signature and using it with trace operation to recover geometric properties.
result Average signature can recover geometric properties like dimension, diameter, volume, and scalar curvature.
In this paper I develop a new computational method for pricing path dependent options. Using the path integral representation of the option price, I show that in general it is possible to perform analytically a partial averaging over the underlying risk-neutral diffusion process. This result greatly eases the computati…
Introduces q-paths for generalizing geometric annealing paths in machine learning.
problem Limited applicability of existing path methods in machine learning.
method Develops a family of paths derived from a generalized mean, including geometric and arithmetic mixtures.
result Empirical gains in Bayesian inference and generative model evaluation.
ScoreMatchingRiesz improves debiased machine learning and policy effects estimation.
problem Improving debiased machine learning and policy effects estimation.
method Score matching and Riesz representer estimation.
result Estimates policy path for continuous treatments, improving interpretability.
Path Integral and Asian Optionsq-fin.PR
In this paper we analytically study the problem of pricing an arithmetically averaged Asian option in the path integral formalism. By a trick about the Dirac delta function, the measure of the path integral is defined by an effective action functional whose potential term is an exponential function. This path integral …
Generative model for TPPs using signatures and distributional discrepancies.
problem Limitations of signature methods for TPPs and lack of global sequence-level loss in neural models.
method Introduce interarrival embedding to lift jump paths to continuous paths of bounded variation, enabling signature methods for discrete event sequences. Develop sigTPP, a signature-based generative model trained on path-level loss.
result sigTPP achieves the best average rank across multiple metrics and outperforms or is within a standard error of the strongest baseline in 64% of dataset-metric pairs.
The aim of this paper is to associate a measure for certain sets of paths in the Euclidean plane with fixed starting and ending points. Then, working on parameterized surfaces with a specific Riemannian metric, we define and calculate the integral of the length over the set of paths obtained as the image…
Path Shadowing Monte-Carloq-fin.MF
A new method predicts future paths using a Monte-Carlo approach.
problem Predicting future financial paths given historical data.
method Path Shadowing Monte-Carlo method using maximum entropy model.
result Yields state-of-the-art predictions for future volatility and option smiles.
This article addresses the problem of approximating the price of options on discrete and continuous arithmetic average of the underlying, i.e. discretely and continuously monitored Asian options, in local volatility models. A path-integral-type expression for option prices is obtained using a Brownian bridge representa…
PathBoost boosts graph-level predictions using path-based features.
problem Graph-level classification and regression challenges.
method Gradient tree boosting method for graph-level prediction.
result PathBoost outperforms graph neural networks and graph kernel approaches in many cases.
Indices of acceptability are well suited to frame the axiomatic features of many performance measures, associated to terminal random cash flows.We extend this notion to classes of càdlàg processes modelling cash flows over a fixed investment horizon.We provide a representation result for bounded paths. We suggest an ac…
Extends unbiased simulation method to Asian options.
problem Simulating path-dependent dynamics for Asian options.
method Extension of unbiased simulation method for SDEs to path-dependent dynamics.
result Extension applies to numerical resolution of path-dependent PDEs.
Paper presents a novel nonparametric method to price Asian options.
problem Difficulty in pricing Asian options, especially with arithmetic average price.
method Nonparametric Predictive Inference (NPI) for Asian option pricing.
result NPI method provides a more precise and uncertain prediction of future asset prices.
Two signature-based methods solve optimal stopping in non-Markovian frameworks.
problem Optimal stopping in non-Markovian frameworks, particularly pricing American options.
method Primal and dual formulations using linear functionals of rough path signatures.
result Both primal and dual methods converge and provide numerical examples.
This paper develops a path-first theory using signatures and jump lifts for self-exiting processes.
problem Developing a universal coordinate system for various types of paths and processes.
method Using signatures, jump lifts, and expected signatures, the paper presents a geometricity framework with algebraic properties and obstructions.
result The framework links various mathematical concepts and offers four main contributions to understanding and modeling self-exiting processes.
One of the most fundamental problems in causal inference is the estimation of a causal effect when variables are confounded. This is difficult in an observational study, because one has no direct evidence that all confounders have been adjusted for. We introduce a novel approach for estimating causal effects that explo…
Derives curvature formulas for convex metric sums and conditions for positive average variation.
problem Understanding how the curvature of a convex sum of metrics changes and whether it can increase the average curvature.
method Explicit formulae for curvature of convex sums of Riemannian metrics, studying total geodesic flat torus.
result Necessary and sufficient conditions for positive average variation of curvature of \(g_t\).
We give a new proof of the representation of implied volatility as a time-average of weighted expectations of local or stochastic volatility. With this proof we clarify the question of existence of 'forward implied variance' in the original derivation of Gatheral, who introduced this representation in his book 'The Vol…
The paper argues for using more degrees of freedom in empirical financial analysis to improve conclusions.
problem Improving trustworthiness of financial analysis conclusions.
method Using more degrees of freedom and forking paths in multiple testing.
result Forking paths raises the bar for significance in multiple testing.
Paper develops new conformal prediction methods for sum or average of unknown labels.
problem Uncertainty quantification in joint distributions of random variables.
method Introduces novel conformal prediction methods for sum or average of unknown labels.
result Validates the proposed method for sum or average of unknown labels under permutation invariant assumptions.
Asymptotic and Finite Sample Analysis of Nonexpansive Stochastic Approximations with Markovian Noisecs.LG
This work analyzes nonexpansive stochastic approximations with Markovian noise, proving convergence in reinforcement learning.
problem Applying stochastic approximation to reinforcement learning settings with nonexpansive operators.
method Investigates nonexpansive stochastic approximations with Markovian noise, providing asymptotic and finite sample analysis.
result First-time proof of convergence for classical tabular average reward temporal difference learning.
We introduce a variant of Farber's topological complexity, defined for smooth compact orientable Riemannian manifolds, which takes into account only motion planners with the lowest possible "average length" of the output paths. We prove that it never differs from topological complexity by more than , thus showing th…
We provide a surprising new application of classical approximation theory to a fundamental asset-pricing model of mathematical finance. Specifically, we calculate an analytic value for the correlation coefficient between exponential Brownian motion and its time average, and we find the use of divided differences greatl…
DSPI connects natural policy gradient to policy iteration, proving global convergence.
problem Optimizing policies in reinforcement learning.
method DSPI framework, combining smoothed policy iteration and natural policy gradient.
result DSPI achieves geometric convergence and optimal complexity for policy optimization.
Study the averaging principle for non-autonomous slow-fast systems and apply it to financial local stochastic volatility models.
problem Understanding the behavior of non-autonomous slow-fast systems of stochastic differential equations.
method Prove the averaging principle under specific conditions and apply it to a financial model.
result Prices of derivatives converge to those calculated using the limit model under a risk-neutral measure.
We develop an adversarial-reinforcement learning scheme for microswimmers in statistically homogeneous and isotropic turbulent fluid flows, in both two (2D) and three dimensions (3D). We show that this scheme allows microswimmers to find non-trivial paths, which enable them to reach a target on average in less time tha…
A new sampling method estimates scores without training or nested MCMC.
problem Efficient sampling from complex, unnormalised distributions.
method Multiscale averaging in SDEs for score estimation.
result Empirical results show competitive accuracy and efficiency.
In this paper we analyze American style of floating strike Asian call options belonging to the class of financial derivatives whose payoff diagram depends not only on the underlying asset price but also on the path average of underlying asset prices over some predetermined time interval. The mathematical model for the …
Regulating causal effects through averaged constraints fails to enforce conditional independence.
problem Enforcing conditional independence in regulatory and analytic settings.
method Formulated causal masking as a linear program and analyzed the resulting enforcement problem from both regulator and optimizer perspectives.
result Averaged-constraint optimization often violates stratum-wise requirements while satisfying the averaged one exactly, and detection requires conditional-independence tests.
CDA framework infers channel influence from aggregated data without user identifiers.
problem Lack of user-level path data due to privacy regulations and platform restrictions.
method CDA integrates PCMCI for causal discovery and Structural Causal Model for effect estimation.
result CDA achieves strong accuracy in estimating channel influence, even under structural uncertainty.
This article provides the first procedure for computing a fully data-dependent interval that traps the mixing time of a finite reversible ergodic Markov chain at a prescribed confidence level. The interval is computed from a single finite-length sample path from the Markov chain, and does not require t…
Nested Variational Inferencestat.ML
Develops a method for learning proposals in nested importance samplers.
problem Improving sampling quality in complex distributions.
method Nested Variational Inference (NVI) using forward or reverse KL divergence.
result Optimizing nested objectives leads to improved sample quality.
In topological data analysis, persistent homology is used to study the "shape of data". Persistent homology computations are completely characterized by a set of intervals called a bar code. It is often said that the long intervals represent the "topological signal" and the short intervals represent "noise". We give ev…
This paper simplifies hedge ratios in financial models using pathwise algorithmic differentiation.
problem Expensive and unstable computation of hedge ratios from pathwise sensitivities.
method Develops reduced stochastic hedge ratios of the form φ_j^r = Σ_j^r ξ_j^q X_q, retaining sensitivity tensor through empirical averages.
result Two coefficient criteria are introduced to minimize pathwise residuals and satisfy moment equations.
Countries tend to diversify their exports by entering products that are related to their current exports. Yet this average behavior is not representative of every diversification path. In this paper, we introduce a method to identify periods when countries enter unrelated products. We analyze the economic diversificati…
Improved analysis of gradual domain adaptation with better generalization bounds.
problem Improving generalization in target domain through intermediate unlabeled domains.
method Analyzed gradual self-training under more general assumptions, proving a new generalization bound.
result Proved a significantly improved generalization bound of ε0 + O(TΔ + T/√n) + ˜O(1/√nT).
A new framework for causal inference in networked settings.
problem Causal inference under network interference.
method Characterize agent network configuration and use it to estimate treatment effects.
result Finite-sample bounds and asymptotically valid tests for policy irrelevance.
This study examines biases in flow matching samplers using finite-sample estimation.
problem Biases in flow matching samplers when using finite-sample surrogates.
method Finite-sample plug-in estimation and hierarchy of empirical FM models.
result Exact empirical minimizer and smoothed plug-in regime identified for affine conditional flows.
CDP reduces point cloud dimensions by preserving detour-induced local non-convexity.
problem Preserving local non-convexity in point cloud dimensionality reduction.
method CDP builds a k-NN graph, identifies admissible pairs, aggregates normalized directions, and uses top-k eigenvectors for projection.
result CDP provides verifiable guarantees on post-projection distortion and direction energy.
Optimizes AIS hyperparameters for efficient marginal likelihood estimation.
problem Limited computation budget affects AIS performance.
method Flexible intermediary distributions defined by residual density, parameter sharing, and fix linear schedule.
result Optimized-Path AIS reduces sampling iterations and improves performance.
We consider a discrete-time approximation of paths of an Ornstein--Uhlenbeck process as a mean for estimation of a price of European call option in the model of financial market with stochastic volatility. The Euler--Maruyama approximation scheme is implemented. We determine the estimates for the option price for prede…
The paper optimizes portfolios using MACD signals derived from price history.
problem Optimizing risky asset portfolios with latent mean-reverting and momentum factors.
method Derives optimal strategies based on MACD signals from EMA processes.
result Establishes admissibility and verification of optimal strategies.
We justify and give error estimates for binomial approximations of game (Israeli) options in the Black--Scholes market with Lipschitz continuous path dependent payoffs which are new also for usual American style options. We show also that rational (optimal) exercise times and hedging self-financing portfolios of binomi…
A new model adapts Hurst parameter in real-time for volatility forecasting.
problem Capturing volatility dynamics and clustering in financial markets.
method Rough Bergomi model with EWMA-driven time-dependent Hurst parameter.
result Empirical validation shows superior performance in diverse asset classes.