dSMC improves parallel processing of state-space models.
problem Processing multiple observations efficiently in state-space models.
method A parallel-in-time particle smoother that reduces complexity to log(T).
result dSMC achieves O(log(T)) time complexity on parallel architectures.
We introduce interacting particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (iPMCMC), a PMCMC method based on an interacting pool of standard and conditional sequential Monte Carlo samplers. Like related methods, iPMCMC is a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler on an extended space. We present empirical results that show significant improv…
Reflective Hamiltonian Monte Carlo struggles with high-dimensional sampling.
problem Slow mixing in reflective Hamiltonian Monte Carlo with inexact reflections.
method Quantifying instantaneous non-uniformity with Sinkhorn divergence; analyzing particle motion in spheres and cubes; constructing low-dimensional toy models.
result Particles spontaneously unmix, leading to resonances in particle density.
We introduce a new sequential Monte Carlo algorithm we call the particle cascade. The particle cascade is an asynchronous, anytime alternative to traditional particle filtering algorithms. It uses no barrier synchronizations which leads to improved particle throughput and memory efficiency. It is an anytime algorithm i…
A new variational method for SSMs improves inference efficiency.
problem Hard variational inference for state space models.
method Proposes variational marginal particle filter (VMPF) based on Rao-Blackwellization.
result VMPF provides tighter variational bounds and sometimes benefits from unbiased reparameterization.
GPU-accelerated particle methods outperform neural samplers in LFT benchmarks.
problem High-dimensional multimodal sampling problems in lattice field theory.
method GPU-accelerated particle Monte Carlo methods (Sequential Monte Carlo and nested sampling).
result These methods match or outperform neural samplers in sample quality and wall-clock time.
Enhances SMC² with Hessian info for more efficient posterior approximation.
problem Improving accuracy and efficiency in Bayesian inference.
method Integrates second-order information (Hessian) into SMC²'s proposal distribution.
result Second-order proposals lead to more accurate posterior approximations and better step-size selection.
We propose a new algorithm to do posterior sampling of Kingman's coalescent, based upon the Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo methodology. Specifically, the algorithm is an instantiation of the Particle Gibbs Sampling method, which alternately samples coalescent times conditioned on coalescent tree structures, and tree…
AFT combines AIS, SMC, and NFs for better Monte Carlo estimates.
problem Estimating normalizing constants of complex probability distributions.
method Annealed Flow Transport (AFT) integrates AIS, SMC, and normalizing flows.
result AFT improves Monte Carlo estimates of normalizing constants and expectations.
Paper compares semi-supervised training for differentiable particle filters.
problem Lack of labelled data in real-world applications.
method Compares two semi-supervised training objectives.
result Improved performance in environments with scarce labelled data.
A new differentiable resampling method for Monte Carlo simulations.
problem Improving the efficiency and differentiability of resampling in Monte Carlo simulations.
method Proposes a diffusion model surrogate for resampling, proving consistency and outperforming existing methods.
result The proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art differentiable resampling methods on various benchmarks.
Paper improves Monte Carlo sampling with new theoretical insights and methods.
problem Improving Monte Carlo sampling for variance reduction.
method Theoretical analysis of negatively dependent random variables and novel extensions using number theory and particle algorithms.
result Near-Orthogonal Monte Carlo (NOMC) consistently outperforms Orthogonal Monte Carlo (OMC) in various applications.
Sequential Monte Carlo techniques are useful for state estimation in non-linear, non-Gaussian dynamic models. These methods allow us to approximate the joint posterior distribution using sequential importance sampling. In this framework, the dimension of the target distribution grows with each time step, thus it is nec…
Novel approach to Bayesian experimental design for non-exchangeable data.
problem Optimal experimental design for non-exchangeable data.
method Inside-Out SMC2 algorithm embedded in particle Markov chain Monte Carlo framework. result Efficacy demonstrated on a set of dynamical systems.
Recently, the Frank-Wolfe optimization algorithm was suggested as a procedure to obtain adaptive quadrature rules for integrals of functions in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) with a potentially faster rate of convergence than Monte Carlo integration (and "kernel herding" was shown to be a special case of thi…
Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC) is a systematic way of combining the two main tools used for Monte Carlo statistical inference: sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). We present a novel PMCMC algorithm that we refer to as particle Gibbs with ancestor sampling (PGAS). PGAS provides t…
New algorithms improve Langevin Monte Carlo efficiency.
problem High computational cost of classical Langevin Monte Carlo.
method Integrates ensemble feature into LMC, constraining gradient approximations.
result Constrained Ensemble Langevin Monte Carlo reduces gradient computation.
Optimal weights improve particle-based approximations of discrete distributions.
problem Improving particle-based approximations of discrete distributions.
method Proving optimality of weights and showing how to compute them efficiently.
result Optimal weights can be computed from existing particle-based methods without extra costs.
Improved particle filters for estimating model parameters using differentiable resampling.
problem Inability to differentiate sampling and resampling steps in particle filters.
method Extended reparameterisation trick to include stochastic input, enabling differentiation. Used p-MCMC and NUTS for parameter estimation.
result NUTS improves mixing of Markov chain and produces more accurate results in less time.
Bayesian inference for expensive likelihoods using Langevin Monte Carlo with NF.
problem Sampling from complex posterior distributions with expensive likelihoods.
method Deterministic Langevin equation with NF gradient, Metropolis-Hastings updates.
result Competitive performance compared to state-of-the-art methods.
The paper improves SMC algorithm for multi-modal distributions by proving variance bounds.
problem Problems with SMC on multi-modal distributions, especially in terms of mixing time.
method Proves variance bounds for SMC on multi-modal distributions using soft decomposition.
result Bounds on SMC variance depend on local rather than global mixing times.
We consider the combined use of resampling and partial rejection control in sequential Monte Carlo methods, also known as particle filters. While the variance reducing properties of rejection control are known, there has not been (to the best of our knowledge) any work on unbiased estimation of the marginal likelihood …
This paper analyzes error bounds for biased SMC samplers in conditional sampling.
problem Analyzing error bounds for biased SMC samplers in conditional sampling.
method Develops a non-asymptotic error analysis for SMC samplers with biased mutation kernels.
result Derives the first non-asymptotic error bound for conditional sampling with score-based diffusion models.
Option valuation problems are often solved using standard Monte Carlo (MC) methods. These techniques can often be enhanced using several strategies especially when one discretizes the dynamics of the underlying asset, of which we assume follows a diffusion process. We consider the combination of two methodologies in th…
Two new deterministic offspring selection methods reduce statistical distance in SMC and pMCMC.
problem Improving the performance of resampling in SMC methods.
method Proposes two deterministic offspring selection methods to minimize KL divergence and TV distance.
result Our methods outperform or match state-of-the-art resampling schemes on benchmarks.
Persistent sampling improves SMC efficiency by retaining and reusing particles.
problem High computational costs and particle impoverishment in SMC.
method Persistent sampling (PS) retains and reuses particles from all prior iterations, using multiple importance sampling and resampling from a mixture of historical distributions.
result PS achieves more accurate posterior approximations and lower variance in marginal likelihood estimates without additional likelihood evaluations.
Compressed Monte Carlo improves efficiency in Bayesian inference.
problem Efficiently approximating posterior distributions in Bayesian models.
method Introduces Compressed Monte Carlo (C-MC) to compress statistical information.
result C-MC schemes outperform traditional methods in particle filtering and adaptive IS algorithms.
Improved state estimation in high-dimensional models using Zig-Zag Sampler.
problem Weight degeneracy in particle filtering methods for high-dimensional state space models.
method Discrete Zig-Zag Sampler applied within the Composite MH Kernel of SMCMC framework.
result Improves estimation accuracy and increases acceptance ratio in high-dimensional state estimation.
High-precision machine learning reduces particle physics simulations by orders of magnitude.
problem Reducing computational burden in particle physics simulations.
method Developed optimal training strategies and tuned machine learning regressors, including Deep Neural Networks with skip connections and boosted decision trees.
result Significantly reduced computational time by factors of 10^3 to 10^6 over first-principles simulations.
The use of sequential Monte Carlo within simulation for path-dependent option pricing is proposed and evaluated. Recently, it was shown that explicit solutions and importance sampling are valuable for efficient simulation of spot price and volatility, especially for purposes of path-dependent option pricing. The result…
Paper explores SVGD for Bayesian inference, linking deterministic and stochastic dynamics.
problem Bayesian inference and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods.
method Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD) with deterministic and stochastic dynamics.
result Identifies Stein-Fisher information as the leading order contribution in the long-time and many-particle regime.
New algorithms improve MCMC efficiency for complex distributions.
problem High variance and low effective sample size in MCMC samplers.
method Antithetic Riemannian Manifold and Quantum-Inspired Hamiltonian Monte Carlo.
result Improved effective sample size and variance reduction.
This paper presents a fast Bayesian filtering technique for state estimation.
problem Bottleneck in Bayesian inference for state estimation from noisy sensor data.
method Processor-native uncertainty tracking for uncertainty propagation and inference.
result Deterministic approximate filtering with up to 805x speedup and competitive accuracy.
Magnetic manifold HMC improves sampling on constrained manifolds.
problem Sampling from distributions restricted to embedded manifolds.
method Introduces magnetic manifold HMC, a generalization of HMC for constrained manifolds.
result Magnetic manifold HMC outperforms canonical manifold-constrained HMC.
DAIS improves AIS by resampling, avoiding gradient issues.
problem Low effective sample size in DAIS.
method DAIS with resampling step to improve efficiency.
result Resampling step avoids gradient variance issues.
We show how to speed up Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) for Bayesian inference in large data problems by data subsampling. SMC sequentially updates a cloud of particles through a sequence of distributions, beginning with a distribution that is easy to sample from such as the prior and ending with the posterior distributio…
CRAFT improves on existing methods for sampling complex distributions.
problem Sampling from complex probability distributions.
method Combines SMC with variational inference using normalizing flows.
result Improves on Annealed Flow Transport Monte Carlo and MCMC-based Stochastic Normalizing Flows.
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods can be used to sample from posterior distributions when the likelihood function is unavailable or intractable, as is often the case in biological systems. ABC methods suffer from inefficient particle proposals in high dimensions, and subjectivity in the choice of summary s…
Paper proposes a new method for sampling from complex distributions.
problem Sampling from unnormalised density functions in complex distributions.
method Combines amortised and particle-based methods with reinforcement learning.
result Improves sampling from complex distributions compared to existing methods.
Approximate inference in high-dimensional, discrete probabilistic models is a central problem in computational statistics and machine learning. This paper describes discrete particle variational inference (DPVI), a new approach that combines key strengths of Monte Carlo, variational and search-based techniques. DPVI is…
New AD methods improve likelihood estimation for partially observed systems.
problem Estimating likelihood functions for partially observed nonlinear systems.
method Embedding AD particle filter methods in a theoretical framework, developing new algorithms for likelihood maximization.
result Mean squared error significantly lower than existing algorithms.
VegasFlow accelerates complex simulations across various hardware platforms.
problem Complex calculations and simulations requiring high-dimensional integrals.
method Monte Carlo integration techniques using Vegas algorithm and TensorFlow.
result Significantly faster performance on various hardware platforms.
We explore a general framework in Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling where sequential proposals are tried as a candidate for the next state of the Markov chain. This sequential-proposal framework can be applied to various existing MCMC methods, including Metropolis-Hastings algorithms using random proposals and m…
A new GP method enforces physical constraints in probabilistic terms.
problem Unbounded model in GP regression leading to infeasible values.
method Introduces a new GP method using QHMC to enforce soft inequality and monotonicity constraints.
result Improves accuracy and reduces variance in GP model.
New method uses Coulomb gases for Monte Carlo integration with reduced errors.
problem Reducing integration errors in numerical algorithms.
method Using Gibbs measures with a large deviations approach.
result Preserves large deviation principle for improved integration.
For regular particle filter algorithm or Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, the initial weights are traditionally dependent on the proposed distribution, the posterior distribution at the current timestamp in the sampled sequence, and the target is the posterior distribution of the previous timestamp. This is techni…
Bayesian inference for inverse problems using mean-shift interacting particles
problem Bayesian inference for inverse problems
method Amortized mean-shift interacting particles
result Improves accuracy of Bayesian inference by reducing the number of samples needed
Bayesian inference in state-space models is challenging due to high-dimensional state trajectories. A viable approach is particle Markov chain Monte Carlo, combining MCMC and sequential Monte Carlo to form "exact approximations" to otherwise intractable MCMC methods. The performance of the approximation is limited to t…