Paper tackles unknown participation in FL, proposing FedAU for better performance.
problem Unknown participation statistics in federated learning impact performance.
method Adapting aggregation weights in FedAvg based on participation history.
result FedAU converges to optimal solution and has desirable properties.
This paper develops a learning framework for optimal strategies in multi-stage decentralized matching markets.
problem Optimal strategies in multi-stage decentralized matching markets with uncertain preferences.
method Nonparametric statistical approach and variational analysis.
result Participants can be better off with multi-stage matching compared to single-stage matching.
Neuroimaging studies produce gigabytes of spatio-temporal data for a small number of participants and stimuli. Rarely do researchers attempt to model and examine how individual participants vary from each other -- a question that should be addressable even in small samples given the right statistical tools. We propose …
An asymmetric information model is introduced for the situation in which there is a small agent who is more susceptible to the flow of information in the market than the general market participant, and who tries to implement strategies based on the additional information. In this model market participants have access t…
Study uses ML to predict non-participation in ELSA COVID-19 follow-up studies.
problem Predicting non-participation in follow-up surveys due to various factors.
method Used machine learning algorithms including KNN, RF, AdaBoost, logistic regression, NN, and SVC.
result Random Forest (RF) outperforms other models in balanced accuracy.
We show that fMRI analysis using machine learning tools are sufficient to distinguish valence (i.e., positive or negative) of freely retrieved autobiographical memories in a cross-participant setting. Our methodology uses feature selection (ReliefF) in combination with boosting methods, both applied directly to data re…
The paper explores how to fairly share longevity risk among participants of tontine schemes.
problem Fair distribution of longevity risk among participants with varying wealth and health.
method Develops a modeling framework for sharing benefits among survivors in tontine schemes.
result There are multiple ways to share longevity risk, depending on social cohesion.
FedSyn generates synthetic data from multiple organizations' datasets.
problem Generating diverse synthetic data from limited datasets.
method Federated learning and GAN for privacy-preserving synthetic data generation.
result Synthetic data can be generated from diverse datasets without accessing individual data.
We use methods of random matrix theory to analyze the cross-correlation matrix C of price changes of the largest 1000 US stocks for the 2-year period 1994-95. We find that the statistics of most of the eigenvalues in the spectrum of C agree with the predictions of random matrix theory, but there are deviations for a fe…
Study on time-zero efficiency of European power derivatives markets using statistical tests and trading rules.
problem Assessing time-zero efficiency in European power derivatives markets.
method Statistical tests based on the law of one price and trading rules based on price differentials and no-arbitrage violations applied to daily data of three European power markets.
result Definite conclusions on time-zero efficiency are not possible for French and Spanish markets due to liquidity and representativeness challenges.
Transformers improve Alzheimer's disease progression prediction by accounting for irregular biomarker histories.
problem Difficult prediction of medium-horizon Alzheimer's disease progression due to tied clinical scores and irregular biomarker observations.
method Developed a residual gap-aware transformer that combines statistical reference with transformer-based residual learning.
result The proposed model reduces mean error and improves prediction-observation correlation compared to baseline models.
Optimizes capital structure for life insurance companies with surplus participation.
problem Determining the optimal participation rate in life insurance contracts.
method Adapted Leland's dynamic capital structure model to life insurance context.
result Optimal participation rate is highly sensitive to contract duration and tax rate.
The paper uncovers two key laws of market impact influenced by volume and participation rate.
problem Understanding the roles of volume and participation rate in market price response.
method Extending the no arbitrage approach to include sophisticated market participants, deriving price dynamics from order flow dynamics.
result Recovery of two square root laws governing market impact.
Local adaptation improves federated learning models.
problem Improving accuracy of federated learning models on non-iid data.
method Local adaptation techniques (fine-tuning, multi-task learning, knowledge distillation).
result Participants benefit from local adaptation, improving federated model accuracy.
Unified analysis of FL with arbitrary client participation.
problem Challenges of intermittent client availability and efficiency in FL.
method Introduces a generalized FedAvg and novel analysis capturing client participation.
result Unified convergence upper bounds for various participation patterns.
Federated learning (FL) is a privacy-preserving paradigm for training collective machine learning models with locally stored data from multiple participants. Vertical federated learning (VFL) deals with the case where participants sharing the same sample ID space but having different feature spaces, while label informa…
PRIME algorithm estimates mean while ensuring privacy and robustness.
problem Privacy and robustness in shared data analysis.
method Introduces PRIME, the first efficient algorithm for both privacy and robustness.
result Achieves both privacy and robustness for a wide range of distributions.
We examine volatility of an Indian stock market in terms of aspects like participation, synchronization of stocks and quantification of volatility using the random matrix approach. Volatility pattern of the market is found using the BSE index for the three-year period 2000-2002. Random matrix analysis is carried out us…
This paper poses a few fundamental questions regarding the attributes of the volume profile of a Limit Order Books stochastic structure by taking into consideration aspects of intraday and interday statistical features, the impact of different exchange features and the impact of market participants in different asset s…
FedAMD framework improves federated learning with partial client participation.
problem Data heterogeneity and inactive client updates in partial client participation.
method Anchor sampling divides clients into anchor and miner groups, using large and small batches respectively.
result FedAMD achieves faster convergence and improved model performance compared to state-of-the-art methods.
Improved forecasting in daily time series competition using a correlator method.
problem Forecasting daily time series with data leakage issues.
method Ensemble of five statistical forecasting methods and a correlator method.
result The correlator method was responsible for most of the gains over naive forecasting.
Mobile technologies offer opportunities for higher resolution monitoring of health conditions. This opportunity seems of particular promise in psychiatry where diagnoses often rely on retrospective and subjective recall of mood states. However, getting actionable information from these rather complex time series is cha…
New data improves market impact estimation methods.
problem Improving efficiency of market impact estimation.
method Investigates the use of price trajectory data for market impact estimation.
result Estimation methods using early trade prices outperform established methods asymptotically.
The purpose of this article is to introduce, analyze and compare two performance participation methods based on a portfolio consisting of two risky assets: Option-Based Performance Participation (OBPP) and Constant Proportion Performance Participation (CPPP). By generalizing the provided guarantee to a participation in…
Extended model ensures long-term survival of traders in limited stock market participation.
problem Limited stock market participation and survival of traders over long periods.
method Extended Basak and Cuoco (1998) model with different time-preference coefficients.
result Parameter restrictions ensure long-term survival of traders.
Data poisoning attacks can severely degrade FL models, especially targeting specific classes.
problem Data poisoning attacks against federated learning systems.
method Demonstrated targeted attacks on FL systems, analyzed attack longevity, and proposed a defense strategy.
result Data poisoning attacks can cause substantial drops in classification accuracy and recall with a small percentage of malicious participants.
In this paper, we present a new task that investigates how people interact with and make judgments about towers of blocks. In Experiment~1, participants in the lab solved a series of problems in which they had to re-configure three blocks from an initial to a final configuration. We recorded whether they used one hand …
Large trades in a financial market are usually split into smaller parts and traded incrementally over extended periods of time. We address these large trades as hidden orders. In order to identify and characterize hidden orders we fit hidden Markov models to the time series of the sign of the tick by tick inventory var…
Proves existence of equilibrium in limited participation economy.
problem Existence of an equilibrium in an economy with limited financial market access.
method Proves global existence of Radner equilibrium using BSDEs with unique solution.
result Proves existence of Radner equilibrium with limited participation.
In the Pioneer 100 (P100) Wellness Project (Price and others, 2017), multiple types of data are collected on a single set of healthy participants at multiple timepoints in order to characterize and optimize wellness. One way to do this is to identify clusters, or subgroups, among the participants, and then to tailor pe…
VolTS uses stats & ML to forecast stock market trends based on volatility.
problem Capturing profitable trading opportunities from market dynamics.
method Combines statistical analysis with machine learning; k-means++ clustering, Granger causality test.
result Effective at identifying profitable trading opportunities through volatility clusters and Granger causality.
A new method improves treatment effect inferences in RCTs by adjusting for covariates and heteroskedasticity.
problem Improving treatment effect inferences in RCTs with efficient and powerful methods.
method Weighted Prognostic Covariate Adjustment Method (Weighted PROCOVA) for heteroskedasticity.
result The method reduces variance, maintains Type I error rate, and increases test power for treatment effect.
Flexible device participation improves federated learning convergence.
problem Strict device participation limits federated learning reach.
method Analytical results and new aggregation scheme for flexible participation.
result Convergence improved with flexible device participation.
At the ultra high frequency level, the notion of price of an asset is very ambiguous. Indeed, many different prices can be defined (last traded price, best bid price, mid price,...). Thus, in practice, market participants face the problem of choosing a price when implementing their strategies. In this work, we propose …
This paper surveys techniques to personalize federated learning models.
problem Personalized models outperform shared models for some clients, reducing participation.
method Surveys recent research on personalizing federated learning models.
result Personalization techniques improve model performance for individual clients.
Federated learning aims to jointly learn statistical models over massively distributed remote devices. In this work, we propose FedDANE, an optimization method that we adapt from DANE, a method for classical distributed optimization, to handle the practical constraints of federated learning. We provide convergence guar…
The paper examines optimal annuitization for retirees with potential post-retirement work.
problem Post-retirement labor participation complicates optimal annuitization decisions.
method Stochastic control, optimal stopping, expected utility maximization, martingale methodology, duality techniques.
result The optimal annuitization time is linearly dependent on initial wealth, with or without labor income.
Federated learning leaks participant dataset quality even with secure aggregation.
problem Leakage of participant dataset quality in federated learning with secure aggregation.
method Image recognition experiments to infer and attribute dataset quality.
result Relative quality ordering of participants can be inferred and used for various purposes.
A new federated learning framework ensures fairness and robustness.
problem Collaborative fairness and adversarial robustness in federated learning.
method RFFL framework with a reputation mechanism to identify and remove non-contributing or malicious participants.
result RFFL achieves high fairness and robustness to different types of adversaries.
Artemis framework improves distributed learning with bidirectional compression and partial participation.
problem Learning in distributed or federated settings with communication constraints and device partial participation.
method Artemis framework using bidirectional compression, memory mechanism, and Polyak-Ruppert averaging.
result Fast rates of convergence (linear up to a threshold) under weak assumptions on stochastic gradients.
Federated learning enables the creation of a powerful centralized model without compromising data privacy of multiple participants. While successful, it does not incorporate the case where each participant independently designs its own model. Due to intellectual property concerns and heterogeneous nature of tasks and d…
Model uses statistical physics principles to predict financial market volatility and returns.
problem Predicting price volatility and expected returns in financial markets.
method Inspired by statistical physics, the study introduces a physical model using Level 3 order book data to measure kinetic energy and momentum.
result The model outperforms traditional and machine learning approaches in forecasting volatility and expected returns.
ADRL improves participant selection in MCS systems.
problem Designing a participant selection algorithm for different MCS systems with multiple goals.
method Auxiliary-task based deep reinforcement learning (ADRL) using transformers and pointer networks.
result ADRL outperforms other baselines in various MCS settings.
Federated learning enables training collaborative machine learning models at scale with many participants whilst preserving the privacy of their datasets. Standard federated learning techniques are vulnerable to Byzantine failures, biased local datasets, and poisoning attacks. In this paper we introduce Adaptive Federa…
Federated Learning with L0 constraint improves sparsity and performance.
problem Inherent sparsity in data and models leads to dense models with poor generalizability.
method L0 constraint on model density achieved through probabilistic gates and federated stochastic gradient descent.
result Achieves target sparsity (rho) in FL with minimal loss in statistical performance.
We investigate intra-day foreign exchange (FX) time series using the inverse statistic analysis developed in [1,2]. Specifically, we study the time-averaged distributions of waiting times needed to obtain a certain increase (decrease) ρ in the price of an investment. The analysis is performed for the Deutsch mark (DM…
A mechanism to share risks and costs with guarantees against extreme outcomes.
problem Softening extreme individual burdens in risk sharing schemes.
method Formalizes Certified Allocation Problem; uses Conformal Risk Sharing with interpretable sharing policy and split conformal calibration.
result Reduces extreme obligations for high-risk agents while controlling harm to others.
FedAvg converges linearly to global minimum in federated learning with partial participation.
problem Challenges in federated learning with partial client participation.
method Federated averaging (FedAvg) method for over-parameterized neural networks.
result FedAvg converges to global minimum at a linear rate after t iterations.