A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Differentiable relaxation for inferring partial orders from noisy linear data.
problem Inference of partial orders from linear data with noisy observations.
method Introducing a differentiable relaxation to model noisy linear extensions, replacing discontinuous precedence and feasibility with smooth surrogates.
result Smooth posterior that preserves partial-order semantics, supports gradient-based inference, and converges to hard likelihood.
In this work, we propose a simple yet effective solution to the problem of connectome inference in calcium imaging data. The proposed algorithm consists of two steps. First, processing the raw signals to detect neural peak activities. Second, inferring the degree of association between neurons from partial correlation …
Temporal Point Processes (TPP) with partial likelihoods involving a latent structure often entail an intractable marginalization, thus making inference hard. We propose a novel approach to Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) involving approximate inference over the latent variables by minimizing a tight upper bound on …
This paper provides estimation and inference methods for an identified set's boundary (i.e., support function) where the selection among a very large number of covariates is based on modern regularized tools. I characterize the boundary using a semiparametric moment equation. Combining Neyman-orthogonality and sample s…
We infer both microscopic and macroscopic behaviors of a three-dimensional chaotic fluid flow using reservoir computing. In our procedure of the inference, we assume no prior knowledge of a physical process of a fluid flow except that its behavior is complex but deterministic. We present two ways of inference of the co…
Bayesian neural networks can be partially stochastic without losing predictive power.
problem The necessity of fully stochastic parameters in Bayesian neural networks.
method Theoretical and empirical investigation of partially stochastic networks compared to fully stochastic ones.
result Expressive predictive distributions require only small amounts of stochasticity, and partially stochastic networks can match or outperform fully stochastic networks.
Arriving at the complete probabilistic knowledge of a domain, i.e., learning how all variables interact, is indeed a demanding task. In reality, settings often arise for which an individual merely possesses partial knowledge of the domain, and yet, is expected to give adequate answers to a variety of posed queries. Tha…
The paper tackles individualized decision-making under unmeasured confounding, providing a novel minimax solution and a paradox.
problem Unmeasured confounding in causal inference leads to biased estimates and affects individualized decision-making.
method The authors establish a formal link between individualized decision-making under partial identification and classical decision theory, providing a minimax solution and a paradox.
result A novel minimax solution for individualized decision-making/policy assignment is provided, and an interesting paradox is drawn.
We introduce a Bayesian Gaussian process latent variable model that explicitly captures spatial correlations in data using a parameterized spatial kernel and leveraging structure-exploiting algebra on the model covariance matrices for computational tractability. Inference is made tractable through a collapsed variation…
Inspired by the hierarchical hidden Markov models (HHMM), we present the hierarchical semi-Markov conditional random field (HSCRF), a generalisation of embedded undirectedMarkov chains tomodel complex hierarchical, nestedMarkov processes. It is parameterised in a discriminative framework and has polynomial time algorit…
We consider the problem of providing nonparametric confidence guarantees for undirected graphs under weak assumptions. In particular, we do not assume sparsity, incoherence or Normality. We allow the dimension D to increase with the sample size n. First, we prove lower bounds that show that if we want accurate infe…