Cookbook transforms constrained statistical inference into unconstrained problems.
problem Transforming constrained statistical inference into unconstrained problems.
method Bijective and diffeomorphisms parametrizations.
result Maintains statistical inference properties like identifiability.
A tutorial on variational inference for high-dimensional models.
problem Approximating marginal likelihood and posterior in Bayesian models.
method Parametric approach to variational inference.
result Variational inference is now preferred for high-dimensional models and large datasets.
New method improves Bayesian inference for parametric models, robust to misspecification.
problem Inference can be untrustworthy when parametric models are wrong.
method Adaptive nonparametric corrections for parametric Bayesian models using generalized Bayes.
result The method achieves robustness and efficiency, converging fast when the parametric model is close to true.
The paper provides theoretical guarantees for transformation-based models in variational inference.
problem Theoretical justification for transformation-based models in variational inference.
method Theoretical analysis of non-linear latent variable models and Gaussian process priors.
result Theoretical guarantees for implicit variational inference, achieving optimal risk bounds and approximating the true posterior.
Modeling structure in complex networks using Bayesian non-parametrics makes it possible to specify flexible model structures and infer the adequate model complexity from the observed data. This paper provides a gentle introduction to non-parametric Bayesian modeling of complex networks: Using an infinite mixture model …
Enhances selective inference for generalized lasso using parametric programming.
problem Low statistical power in selective inference for generalized lasso.
method Parametric programming to compute solution paths and identify model selection events.
result Improves selective inference power and practicality for various problems.
Framework improves data-driven ROMs for complex systems using Bayesian operator inference.
problem Improving the quality of data-driven reduced-order models for complex dynamical systems.
method Develops an active learning framework using Bayesian operator inference to identify and select training parameters.
result The proposed adaptive sampling strategy consistently yields more stable and accurate ROMs than random sampling.
Bayesian methods improve causal effect estimation, offering shrinkage and sensitivity analysis.
problem Improving causal effect estimation in practical settings.
method Parametric and nonparametric Bayesian approaches.
result Priors induce shrinkage and sparsity in parametric models.
This paper finds a unique partition of a sample space for estimating continuous distributions.
problem Estimating continuous probability distributions from finite samples.
method Equal-probability partition of the sample space using order statistics.
result The partition yields an entropy of log2(N+1) bits, providing a discrete entropy estimate.
DiD-BCF model improves causal inference in panel data with robust non-parametric methods.
problem Challenges in Difference-in-Differences (DiD) estimation, especially heterogeneous treatment effects and non-linearities.
method Difference-in-Differences Bayesian Causal Forest (DiD-BCF) with PTA-based reparameterization.
result DiD-BCF provides superior performance and uncovers significant heterogeneity in treatment effects.
Paper simplifies data carving inference with a parametric distribution.
problem Valid inference after selection with data carving.
method Developed a parametric distribution for data carving inference.
result Exact inference for data carving can be computed trivially.
Efficiently models event-based data with general parametric kernels.
problem Inference for Hawkes processes with general parametric kernels requires large datasets.
method Developed a fast ℓ2 gradient-based solver using a discretized version of events. result Improved estimation of pattern latency in brain signals.
Proposes a new method to improve selective inference for Lasso models.
problem Over-conditioning due to conditioning on feature signs in selective inference for Lasso.
method Parametric programming approach to avoid conditioning on signs and identify feature selection events.
result Improves power and practicality of selective inference for Lasso models.
Estimates neural drift for stochastic equations, improving inference on noisy data.
problem Estimating drift in stochastic differential equations with neural networks.
method Non-parametric estimation using ReLU neural networks, enforcing theoretical bounds.
result Practical method for inference on noisy and rough functional data.
Bayesian non-parametric model adapts to concept drifts in streaming data.
problem Inference under concept drift phenomenon for non-stationary data streams.
method Variational inference algorithm for Dirichlet process mixture models with exponential forgetting.
result The proposed model outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms in clustering problems.
The Hawkes process (HP) has been widely applied to modeling self-exciting events including neuron spikes, earthquakes and tweets. To avoid designing parametric triggering kernel and to be able to quantify the prediction confidence, the non-parametric Bayesian HP has been proposed. However, the inference of such models …
We address challenges in estimating parameters from adaptively collected data.
problem Estimating parameters from data collected adaptively leads to non-normal asymptotic distributions.
method We develop semi-parametric estimators that account for adaptivity in data collection.
result Our estimators are asymptotically normal under certain conditions.
A novel MCMC method clusters data faster and more accurately.
problem Efficiently clustering large datasets with unknown number of clusters.
method Master/Worker architecture for distributed MCMC inference.
result Significant improvement in clustering accuracy and speed.
Proposes a non-parametric method for deep discrete latent variable models.
problem Learning sparse discrete latent representations in deep models.
method Iterative algorithm with Beta-Bernoulli process prior and local data scaling.
result Improves sparsity and scalability of deep discrete latent variable models.
New estimators improve causal inference in machine learning studies.
problem Improving causal inference in machine learning models.
method Doubly-robust cross-fit estimators for average causal effect.
result Doubly-robust cross-fit estimators outperform other methods in simulations.
New method speeds up SDE inference by matching moments to FPK equation.
problem Efficiency of sampling schemes in high-dimensional SDEs.
method Direct approximation of Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov equation by matching moments.
result Fast, scalable inference in high-dimensional latent spaces.
Improved inference for models with continuous latent variables.
problem Inference accuracy with traditional variational methods is limited.
method Reparameterized Variational Rejection Sampling (RVRS) using a proposal distribution with a reparameterized gradient estimator.
result RVRS offers a better trade-off between computational cost and inference fidelity.
In classical Hawkes process, the baseline intensity and triggering kernel are assumed to be a constant and parametric function respectively, which limits the model flexibility. To generalize it, we present a fully Bayesian nonparametric model, namely Gaussian process modulated Hawkes process and propose an EM-variation…
Efficient deep neural network (DNN) inference on mobile or embedded devices typically involves quantization of the network parameters and activations. In particular, mixed precision networks achieve better performance than networks with homogeneous bitwidth for the same size constraint. Since choosing the optimal bitwi…
A parametrization of hypergraphs based on the geometry of points in Rd is developed. Informative prior distributions on hypergraphs are induced through this parametrization by priors on point configurations via spatial processes. This prior specification is used to infer conditional independence models or M…
We present a class of models that, via a simple construction, enables exact, incremental, non-parametric, polynomial-time, Bayesian inference of conditional measures. The approach relies upon creating a sequence of covers on the conditioning variable and maintaining a different model for each set within a cover. Infere…
Stein variational gradient descent improves inference in Gaussian process models.
problem Inference in Gaussian process models with non-Gaussian likelihoods and large data volumes is computationally intensive and inaccurate with traditional methods.
method Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD) for non-parametric inference.
result SVGD monotonically decreases the Kullback-Leibler divergence from the sampling distribution to the true posterior.
This work introduces the concept of parametric Gaussian processes (PGPs), which is built upon the seemingly self-contradictory idea of making Gaussian processes parametric. Parametric Gaussian processes, by construction, are designed to operate in "big data" regimes where one is interested in quantifying the uncertaint…
New method reduces computational cost for selective inference.
problem Over-conditioning in selective inference.
method Parametric programming-based selective inference (PP-based SI) with bounded p-values.
result Reduced computational cost while maintaining desired precision.
The paper develops efficient algorithms for variational inference with mixtures of isotropic Gaussians.
problem Efficiently approximating multimodal Bayesian posteriors.
method Develops a variational framework and efficient algorithms for mixtures of isotropic Gaussians.
result The approach provides accurate approximations of multimodal Bayesian posteriors while being memory and computationally efficient.
Proposes a private empirical bootstrap for Gaussian Differential Privacy.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in massive data under Differential Privacy.
method Gaussian Differential Private Bootstrap by Subsampling.
result Consistent and efficient private inference method.
We present a non-parametric prognostic framework for individualized event prediction based on joint modeling of both longitudinal and time-to-event data. Our approach exploits a multivariate Gaussian convolution process (MGCP) to model the evolution of longitudinal signals and a Cox model to map time-to-event data with…
Sparse Gaussian processes with compact kernels for faster inference.
problem Efficient Gaussian process inference with high computational complexity.
method Parametric families of compactly-supported kernels for sparse matrix representations.
result Sub-quadratic inference complexity and improved performance on real-world tasks.
Model inference for dynamical systems aims to estimate the future behaviour of a system from observations. Purely model-free statistical methods, such as Artificial Neural Networks, tend to perform poorly for such tasks. They are therefore not well suited to many questions from applications, for example in Bayesian fil…
Deep learning techniques are increasingly being considered for geological applications where -- much like in computer vision -- the challenges are characterized by high-dimensional spatial data dominated by multipoint statistics. In particular, a novel technique called generative adversarial networks has been recently …
Generalizes prediction-powered inference for binary classifier evaluation.
problem Evaluation of binary classifiers with partially observed outcomes.
method Generalizes PPI to any regular asymptotically linear estimator and proposes modified estimators for covariate shift.
result PPI can be a computationally-simple alternative to existing methods, achieving no greater than the semi-parametric efficiency lower bound in certain scenarios.
Bayesian inference for stochastic differential equations using Wishart diffusions.
problem Inferring stochastic differential equations for regression and dynamical modeling.
method Bayesian non-parametric approach with semi-parametric Wishart processes.
result Modeling diffusion in stochastic differential equations improves performance and avoids overfitting.
The paper reviews methods for estimating individual treatment effects using non-parametric regression models.
problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in observational data.
method Non-parametric regression models to estimate individual treatment effects.
result A review and development of existing state-of-the-art frameworks for individual treatment effects estimation.
The paper reinterprets Bayesian priors and posteriors using Riemannian manifolds.
problem The dependence of maximum a posteriori estimates on parametrization.
method Assuming a Riemannian manifold with Fisher metric, the paper reinterprets priors and posteriors as distributions over probability distributions, making estimates independent of parametrization.
result A maximum a posteriori estimate independent of parametrization is defined.
This paper solves the normalizability crisis in sequential inference by introducing bounded information geometry.
problem Structural failure in standard sequential inference architectures when dealing with extreme outliers.
method Non-parametric field actions and bounded information geometry to truncate infinite tails of spatial distributions.
result Empirical benchmarks across three domains show robust estimation without infinite-tailed distributional assumptions.
Near-optimal tests and confidence sequences for non-parametric data.
problem Flexible statistical inference and decision-making with non-parametric data.
method Classic delayed-start normal-mixture sequential probability ratio tests with asymptotic guarantees.
result Asymptotically optimal type-I error and expected rejection time guarantees.
Optimally explores dynamical systems with varying properties using context inference.
problem Learning dynamics models for systems with varying properties.
method Formulates dynamics models as stochastic processes conditioned on a latent context variable inferred from system transitions. Uses probabilistic formulation to compute optimal action sequences for exploration.
result Demonstrates effectiveness of the method on non-linear toy-problems and reinforcement learning environments.
This work develops a non-parametric test for relational independence in non-i.i.d. data.
problem Testing independence in relational systems where data samples are not i.i.d.
method Kernel mean embedding for relational variables, consistent non-parametric scalable kernel test.
result Empirically validated effectiveness compared to state-of-the-art tests.
New method for estimating counterfactual means in adaptive experiments.
problem Inference for counterfactual means in sequentially designed experiments with adaptive treatment policies.
method Latent factor model and nearest neighbors method for estimation.
result Asymptotically valid confidence intervals for counterfactual means established.
Framework handles both exchangeable and non-exchangeable event sequences without tuning.
problem Handling both exchangeable and non-exchangeable event sequences efficiently.
method Parametric Hawkes-process-inspired conditional probability mass function with variational inference.
result Competitive computational and predictive performance against state-of-the-art methods.
PClean automates Bayesian data cleaning for specific datasets.
problem Bayesian inference for diverse and complex data cleaning.
method Domain-specific probabilistic programming language with custom models and inference.
result PClean programs outperform general-purpose PPLs in accuracy and runtime.
New method for Bayesian inference of Lévy-driven SDEs with jumps.
problem Bayesian inference for Lévy-driven SDEs is challenging due to discontinuities and heavy tails.
method Neural exponential tilting framework for variational inference.
result Accurately captures jump dynamics and reliable posterior inference in heavy-tailed regimes.
Dirichlet Process(DP) is a Bayesian non-parametric prior for infinite mixture modeling, where the number of mixture components grows with the number of data items. The Hierarchical Dirichlet Process (HDP), is an extension of DP for grouped data, often used for non-parametric topic modeling, where each group is a mixtur…