We address challenges in estimating parameters from adaptively collected data.
problem Estimating parameters from data collected adaptively leads to non-normal asymptotic distributions.
method We develop semi-parametric estimators that account for adaptivity in data collection.
result Our estimators are asymptotically normal under certain conditions.
Estimates neural drift for stochastic equations, improving inference on noisy data.
problem Estimating drift in stochastic differential equations with neural networks.
method Non-parametric estimation using ReLU neural networks, enforcing theoretical bounds.
result Practical method for inference on noisy and rough functional data.
New estimator robust to adversarial noise and data heterogeneity.
problem Sensitive to adversarial noise and poor performance with heterogeneous data.
method Distributionally robust estimator minimizing worst-case conditional expected loss over adversarial distributions.
result Efficiently finds non-parametric local estimates via convex optimization.
Estimates non-parametric logistic model using case-control data and external summary info.
problem Imbalanced binary data in case-control studies.
method Two-step estimation procedure with deep neural network for functional approximation.
result Proposed estimator achieves optimal convergence rate in non-parametric regression.
New method minimizes robust density power-based divergences for general parametric densities.
problem Computational complexity of minimizing DPD for general parametric densities.
method Stochastic approach to minimize DPD for general parametric density models.
result Proposed method can be applied to minimize other density power-based γ-divergences.
The paper connects semi-parametric estimates to European option pricing.
problem Estimating European option prices using semi-parametric methods.
method Connecting estimates by de la Peña, Ibragimov and Jordan, Scarf, and Lo.
result The estimates imply European option prices.
Paper proposes a neural network for non-parametric Hawkes process kernel estimation.
problem Estimating non-parametric Hawkes process kernels efficiently and interpretably.
method Single hidden layer neural network for unbiased log-likelihood estimation of Hawkes processes.
result Proposed neural network achieves comparable or better performance than existing methods.
Develops a simple method for creating private confidence intervals.
problem Creating private confidence intervals for parametric estimation.
method Parametric bootstrap approach to construct confidence intervals.
result The parametric bootstrap provides consistent and effective confidence intervals.
Unbiased gradient estimation for Markov chains
problem Estimating gradients of stationary means in Markov chains
method Propose new unbiased estimators
result Improves efficiency for slow mixing Markov chains
The method of covariate adjustment is often used for estimation of population average treatment effects in observational studies. Graphical rules for determining all valid covariate adjustment sets from an assumed causal graphical model are well known. Restricting attention to causal linear models, a recent article der…
The Mutual Information (MI) is an often used measure of dependency between two random variables utilized in information theory, statistics and machine learning. Recently several MI estimators have been proposed that can achieve parametric MSE convergence rate. However, most of the previously proposed estimators have th…
We introduce a balloon estimator in a generalized expectation-maximization method for estimating all parameters of a Gaussian mixture model given one data sample per mixture component. Instead of limiting explicitly the model size, this regularization strategy yields low-complexity sparse models where the number of eff…
We consider a model-based approach to perform batch off-policy evaluation in reinforcement learning. Our method takes a mixture-of-experts approach to combine parametric and non-parametric models of the environment such that the final value estimate has the least expected error. We do so by first estimating the local a…
NPOD algorithm improves efficiency in estimating pharmacokinetic parameters.
problem Efficiently estimating joint distribution of model parameters in population pharmacokinetics.
method Uses gradient approach to suggest new support points, reducing evaluation time.
result Achieves similar solutions to NPAG but with significantly fewer cycles and runtime.
In this paper, we suggest a framework to make use of mutual information as a regularization criterion to train Auto-Encoders (AEs). In the proposed framework, AEs are regularized by minimization of the mutual information between input and encoding variables of AEs during the training phase. In order to estimate the ent…
New method estimates survival risks without strong proportional hazard assumptions.
problem Time-to-event prediction with censored data and competing risks.
method Jointly learns deep nonlinear representations for fully parametric survival regression.
result Demonstrates benefits in real-world datasets with different censoring levels.
The study compares parametric and nonparametric models for estimating mean-variance mixtures and finds that nonparametric models perform better.
problem Estimating the distribution of a normal mean-variance mixture under uncertainty.
method Comparison of six parametric mixing laws with a grid nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator, using a paired block bootstrap for score comparison.
result Nonparametric models outperform parametric models in estimating the distribution of a normal mean-variance mixture.
Estimates conditional Brenier maps using entropic optimal transport.
problem Non-parametric estimation of conditional Brenier maps.
method Entropic optimal transport for scalable non-parametric estimation.
result Entropic optimal transport maps asymptotically converge to conditional Brenier maps.
Deep learning improves causal effect estimation from complex observational data.
problem Estimating causal effects from complex observational data with low bias.
method Unified deep learning framework using multitask recurrent neural networks.
result Deep learning estimator shows lower bias in causal effect estimates.
Estimates risk in finance using Wasserstein distance and parametric models.
problem Assessing risk in financial models with model uncertainty.
method Parametric approach based on Wasserstein distance for convex risk functionals.
result Developed a numerical method using neural networks to estimate risk and optimal perturbations.
Non-parametric estimators improve quickest changepoint detection under irregular sequence lengths.
problem Limited and irregular sequence lengths hinder application of ARL and ADD in QCD.
method Analogies with survival analysis to model detection probabilities under truncation.
result KM-ARL and KM-ADD non-parametric estimators are asymptotically unbiased.
Develops a new model for network estimation from multi-variate data.
problem Network estimation from multi-variate point process or time series data.
method Semi-parametric approach based on the monotone single-index multi-variate autoregressive model (SIMAM).
result Achieves optimal rates of convergence and superior performance in prediction and network estimation.
New estimators improve causal inference in machine learning studies.
problem Improving causal inference in machine learning models.
method Doubly-robust cross-fit estimators for average causal effect.
result Doubly-robust cross-fit estimators outperform other methods in simulations.
Paper introduces an online method for estimating the difference between two probability distributions.
problem Estimating the difference between two probability density functions using available data.
method Non-parametric online likelihood-ratio estimation using Pearson-divergence functional minimization.
result The proposed method provides efficient online updates and theoretical guarantees for performance.
The article applies Occam's Razor to non-parametric model building, minimizing the number of bits for data encoding.
problem Overlooking the role of model parameters in data encoding leads to inefficient probability density estimators.
method Extends bit counting to model parameters, providing a true measure of complexity for parametric models.
result Minimizing total bit requirement leads to smoother, more efficient probability density estimates and fewer relevant parameters.
Paper proposes a machine learning-based method for estimating mediation effects.
problem Challenges in estimating mediation effects with multiple, continuous mediators.
method Developed a one-step estimation algorithm using machine learning and Riesz learning.
result Proposed method can estimate mediation effects from just two statistical estimands.
Efficiently models event-based data with general parametric kernels.
problem Inference for Hawkes processes with general parametric kernels requires large datasets.
method Developed a fast ℓ2 gradient-based solver using a discretized version of events. result Improved estimation of pattern latency in brain signals.
Efficient methods estimate bid and value distributions in auctions.
problem Estimating bid and value distributions in auctions with limited information.
method Non-parametric estimation algorithms for first- and second-price auctions.
result Uniform estimation bounds for bid and value distributions, independent of distributions being estimated.
We consider off-policy evaluation and optimization with continuous action spaces. We focus on observational data where the data collection policy is unknown and needs to be estimated. We take a semi-parametric approach where the value function takes a known parametric form in the treatment, but we are agnostic on how i…
The paper reviews methods for estimating individual treatment effects using non-parametric regression models.
problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in observational data.
method Non-parametric regression models to estimate individual treatment effects.
result A review and development of existing state-of-the-art frameworks for individual treatment effects estimation.
We propose a robust estimator to improve maximum likelihood in probabilistic models.
problem Overfitting and sensitivity to noise in maximum likelihood estimation.
method Distributionally robust maximum likelihood estimator that minimizes worst-case expected log-loss.
result The robust estimator is statistically consistent and performs well in regression and classification tasks.
We propose a new non parametric technique to estimate the CALL function based on the superhedging principle. Our approach does not require absence of arbitrage and easily accommodates bid/ask spreads and other market imperfections. We prove some optimal statistical properties of our estimates. As an application we firs…
Abstract: Geometrically reformulates estimation theory for finite-dimensional C*-algebras.
problem Estimation theory for finite-dimensional C*-algebras.
method Geometrical formulation of estimation theory.
result Derivation of Cramer-Rao and Helstrom bounds.
Estimates dependent parameters using Markovian dependence with shrinkage.
problem Estimating dependent parameters from a hidden Markov model.
method Developed a novel non-parametric shrinkage algorithm combining Tweedie-based ideas and efficient state estimation.
result Superior performance compared to non-shrinkage methods in hidden Markov models.
In this paper, we give a general time-varying parameter model, where the multidimensional parameter possibly includes jumps. The quantity of interest is defined as the integrated value over time of the parameter process Θ=T−1∫0Tθt∗dt. We provide a local parametric estimator (LPE) of Θ and conditions u…
The Fisher information matrix (FIM) is a foundational concept in statistical signal processing. The FIM depends on the probability distribution, assumed to belong to a smooth parametric family. Traditional approaches to estimating the FIM require estimating the probability distribution function (PDF), or its parameters…
We study the estimation of the parametric components of single and multiple index volatility models. Using the first- and second-order Stein's identities, we develop methods that are applicable for the estimation of the variance index in the high-dimensional setting requiring finite moment condition, which allows for h…
Study evaluates policies in partially observable environments without full model specification.
problem Evaluating policies in partially observable environments without full model specification.
method Developed non-parametric identification and recursive fitted-Q-evaluation algorithm.
result Established finite-sample error bounds for policy value estimation.
Estimation of response functions is an important task in dynamic medical imaging. This task arises for example in dynamic renal scintigraphy, where impulse response or retention functions are estimated, or in functional magnetic resonance imaging where hemodynamic response functions are required. These functions can no…
Paper proposes a novel approach to density ratio estimation using projection pursuit.
problem Density ratio estimation challenges in high dimensions and model misspecification.
method The approach uses projection pursuit to approximate density ratios, addressing high dimensionality and model flexibility issues.
result The proposed estimator is consistent and converges at a certain rate, outperforming existing methods in experiments.
We show that the jumps correlation matrix of a multivariate Hawkes process is related to the Hawkes kernel matrix through a system of Wiener-Hopf integral equations. A Wiener-Hopf argument allows one to prove that this system (in which the kernel matrix is the unknown) possesses a unique causal solution and consequentl…
Study optimizes estimating linear functionals from observational data without strict overlap.
problem Estimating linear functionals from observational data with strict overlap assumption violated.
method Kernel-based approach for non-asymptotic local minimax bounds.
result Achieves optimal risk for estimating linear functionals in observational data.
New unbiased gradient estimators for complex optimization problems.
problem Unbiased and variance-limited gradient estimation for conditional stochastic optimization.
method Developed multilevel Monte Carlo gradient estimators for conditional stochastic optimization problems.
result Unbiased and finite variance gradient estimators for conditional stochastic optimization problems.
DiD-BCF model improves causal inference in panel data with robust non-parametric methods.
problem Challenges in Difference-in-Differences (DiD) estimation, especially heterogeneous treatment effects and non-linearities.
method Difference-in-Differences Bayesian Causal Forest (DiD-BCF) with PTA-based reparameterization.
result DiD-BCF provides superior performance and uncovers significant heterogeneity in treatment effects.
Most conventional Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithms aim to optimize decision-making rules in terms of the expected returns. However, especially for risk management purposes, other risk-sensitive criteria such as the value-at-risk or the expected shortfall are sometimes preferred in real applications. Here, we desc…
Theoretical guarantees for neural estimators in parametric statistics are derived.
problem Lack of theoretical guarantees for neural estimators in parametric statistics.
method Decompose risk into terms and verify assumptions for convergence.
result Derive theoretical guarantees for neural estimators.
New method integrates sparse parametric and nonparametric techniques for complex system modeling.
problem Lack of accurate modeling for complex biological systems due to nonlinearities.
method Sparse nonparametric estimation framework combining parametric and nonparametric techniques.
result Accurately captures nonlinearities in complex systems without prior information.
This paper presents a semi-parametric algorithm for online learning of a robot inverse dynamics model. It combines the strength of the parametric and non-parametric modeling. The former exploits the rigid body dynamics equa- tion, while the latter exploits a suitable kernel function. We provide an extensive comparison …