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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

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119237356474 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for parameter shift rule

Test-time training adapts a pretrained model to each prompt via parameter updates, improving accuracy under pretraining-to-test distribution shifts.

problem Improving accuracy of pretrained models under distribution shifts.
method Explaining TTT behavior through a decision-theoretic lens.
result TTT reduces prediction error when updates are spectrally matched to the prompt's signal-to-noise ratio and aligned with query-relevant eigen-directions.

This research focuses on invariant probabilistic predictions, showing they are not robust under distribution shifts.

problem The challenge of creating robust probabilistic predictions that remain consistent under distribution shifts.
method A causality-inspired framework to investigate invariance and robustness of probabilistic predictions with respect to proper scoring rules.
result Arbitrary distribution shifts do not admit invariant and robust probabilistic predictions, unlike point predictions.

Proposes robust ITRs integrating multiple datasets to handle posterior shift.

problem Posterior shift in conditional outcome distributions between source and target populations.
method Distributionally robust approach with closed-form solution and adaptive uncertainty tuning.
result Achieves superior performance compared to existing methods in simulations and real-data applications.

New methods for Bayesian inference using mean shift particle systems.

problem Approximating expectations with unnormalized densities in Bayesian inference.
method Mean shift interacting particle systems that minimize maximum mean discrepancy (MMD).
result Mean shift interacting particle systems converge quickly and capture complex distributions.

Improves VQAs by balancing classical and quantum training resources.

problem Challenges in trainability and resource costs of VQAs on quantum hardware.
method Adopting HELIA Ansatz and combining classical and quantum methods for gradient estimation and training.
result Achieves higher accuracy and success rates in VQE and improved test accuracy in quantum phase classification.

Researchers adaptively analyze market regimes to reveal investor behavior shifts.

problem Market relationships shift across different regimes, affecting investor behavior.
method Combining Kalman filtering, Markov-switching, and asymmetric response estimation.
result Foreign investors' predictive power increases during crises, while individual investors react more strongly to positive shocks.

Proposes a new measure to evaluate stability of statistical parameters under distributional shifts.

problem Difficulty in transferring knowledge across data sets due to distributional changes.
method Introduces a measure of instability quantifying sensitivity of statistical parameters to Kullback-Leibler divergence and directional shifts.
result The proposed measure can elucidate the type of shifts a parameter is sensitive to and improve estimation accuracy under shifted distributions.

MELO predicts electricity loads by adapting to shifts without external indicators.

problem Adapting to non-stationary prediction challenges in online settings.
method MELO combines multiple forgetting factors and aggregation rules to adaptively predict.
result MELO reduces RMSE by 34.7% compared to base predictors and external covariates.

Paper tackles high-dimensional quantile regression with distribution shift using transfer learning.

problem Efficiency of knowledge transfer is severely impacted by distribution shift in high-dimensional regression.
method Proposes a novel transferable set and framework for three types of distribution shift: parameter, covariate, and residual.
result Establishes estimation error bounds and source detection consistency for the proposed method.

Practical or scientific considerations often lead to selecting a subset of parameters as ``important.'' Inferences about those parameters often are based on the same data used to select them in the first place. That can make the reported uncertainties deceptively optimistic: confidence intervals that ignore selection g…

2019-06-02abs ↗pdf ↗

In the framework of geometric quantization we extend the Bohr-Sommerfeld rules to a full quantization theory which resembles Heisenberg's matrix theory. This extension is possible because Bohr-Sommerfeld rules not only provide an orthogonal basis in the space of quantum states, but also give a lattice structure to this…

2012-07-05abs ↗pdf ↗

The Lamarle Formula, given by Kruppa in \cite{Kr}, is known as a relationship between the Gaussian curvature and the distribution parameter of a ruled surface in the surface theory. The ruled surfaces were investigated in 3 different classes with respect to the character of base curves and rulings, \cite{Tu1},\cite{Tu2…

2010-01-05abs ↗pdf ↗

A learning algorithm optimizes beamforming for holographic transceivers in far-field communication.

problem Optimal phase-shifts for beamforming in holographic transceivers are challenging due to unknown receiver locations and large phase-shifts.
method Developed a learning algorithm using a fixed-budget multi-armed bandit framework to learn optimal phase-shifts.
result The algorithm, HoloBeam, outperforms state-of-the-art methods in beamforming optimization.

Study on tracking preference shifts in dueling bandits problems.

problem Tracking significant preference shifts in dueling bandits problems.
method Analysis of dueling bandits with distribution shifts, focusing on significant shifts (Suk and Kpotufe, 2022).
result Design of adaptive algorithms with O(KildeLT)O(\sqrt{K ilde{L}T}) dynamic regret for certain preference distribution classes.

New Fourier features improve high-precision approximation in large-scale problems.

problem Designing scalable, high-precision Fourier features for large-scale kernel methods.
method Introducing a new family of quadrature rules that accurately approximate the Gaussian measure in higher dimensions.
result Improved approximation bounds with new Fourier features.

New method corrects biased predictions and uncertainty estimates in classification with nuisance parameters.

problem Tackles biased predictions and invalid uncertainty estimates in classification with nuisance parameters.
method Proposes a method that estimates ROC across the entire nuisance parameter space to devise invariant cutoffs.
result Demonstrates effective domain adaptation and valid prediction sets with high power.

New research shows LLMs can't be explained by statistical generalization alone.

problem Understanding why large language models (LLMs) perform well despite statistical generalization limitations.
method Examined the non-identifiability of AR probabilistic models and their implications for LLMs.
result Non-identifiability of LLMs leads to different behaviors and requires a separate theoretical explanation.

Anchor-TS uses median anchoring to improve online decision-making from offline data with distribution shift.

problem Improving online decision-making from offline data with distribution shift.
method Sample-Mean Anchored Thompson Sampling (Anchor-TS) with median anchoring.
result Anchor-TS safely leverages offline data to accelerate online learning and reduces regret.

This work addresses the problem of segmentation in time series data with respect to a statistical parameter of interest in Bayesian models. It is common to assume that the parameters are distinct within each segment. As such, many Bayesian change point detection models do not exploit the segment parameter patterns, whi…

2017-10-26abs ↗pdf ↗

An expanding literature articulates the view that Taylor rules are helpful in predicting exchange rates. In a changing world however, Taylor rule parameters may be subject to structural instabilities, for example during the Global Financial Crisis. This paper forecasts exchange rates using such Taylor rules with Time V…

2014-03-03abs ↗pdf ↗

In this paper, we study two classes of planar self-similar fractals TεT_\varepsilon with a shifting parameter ε\varepsilon. The first one is a class of self-similar tiles by shifting xx-coordinates of some digits. We give a detailed discussion on the disk-likeness ({\it i.e., the property of being a topological disk}…

2017-01-05abs ↗pdf ↗

SAMPLR optimizes for ground truth in aleatoric parameters to avoid curriculum-induced covariate shift.

problem Curriculum learning shifts training distribution, leading to suboptimal policies in aleatoric settings.
method SAMPLR optimizes ground-truth utility function, avoiding curriculum-induced covariate shift.
result SAMPLR preserves optimality under ground-truth distribution, promoting robustness across various environments.

We propose an improved LASSO estimation technique based on Stein-rule. We shrink classical LASSO estimator using preliminary test, shrinkage, and positive-rule shrinkage principle. Simulation results have been carried out for various configurations of correlation coefficients (rr), size of the parameter vector (ββ), …

2015-03-17abs ↗pdf ↗

We consider the problem of function estimation in the case where an underlying causal model can be inferred. This has implications for popular scenarios such as covariate shift, concept drift, transfer learning and semi-supervised learning. We argue that causal knowledge may facilitate some approaches for a given probl…

2012-06-27abs ↗pdf ↗

In the artificial intelligence field, learning often corresponds to changing the parameters of a parameterized function. A learning rule is an algorithm or mathematical expression that specifies precisely how the parameters should be changed. When creating an artificial intelligence system, we must make two decisions: …

2017-06-09abs ↗pdf ↗

Machine learning detects tipping points in complex systems.

problem Detecting abrupt shifts in complex dynamical systems.
method Equilibrium-informed neural networks (EINNs) trained on candidate equilibrium states.
result EINNs can identify critical thresholds in nonlinear systems.

New method estimates optimal personalized treatment rules from mixed data sources.

problem Combining RCT and observational data for personalized treatment rules.
method Doubly robust estimator for value function, maximizing within pre-specified ITR class.
result Consistent and asymptotically normal optimal value estimator with N1/3N^{-1/3} rate of convergence.

In this study, we have obtained the distribution parameter of a ruled surface generated by a straight line in Frenet trihedron moving along a timelike curve and also along another curve with the same parameter. At this time, the Frenet frames of these timelike curves are not the same. We have moved the director vector …

2012-02-01abs ↗pdf ↗

In this paper, we define a new type of ruled surface called ruled surface by using the alternative frame of a base curve. Then, we study its differential geometric properties such as striction line, distribution parameter, fundamental forms, Gaussian and mean curvatures. Moreover, we find geodesic curvatures, normal cu…

2019-10-15abs ↗pdf ↗