Proposes a new measure to evaluate stability of statistical parameters under distributional shifts.
problem Difficulty in transferring knowledge across data sets due to distributional changes.
method Introduces a measure of instability quantifying sensitivity of statistical parameters to Kullback-Leibler divergence and directional shifts.
result The proposed measure can elucidate the type of shifts a parameter is sensitive to and improve estimation accuracy under shifted distributions.
Paper tackles high-dimensional quantile regression with distribution shift using transfer learning.
problem Efficiency of knowledge transfer is severely impacted by distribution shift in high-dimensional regression.
method Proposes a novel transferable set and framework for three types of distribution shift: parameter, covariate, and residual.
result Establishes estimation error bounds and source detection consistency for the proposed method.
Unified framework certifies predictor performance under distribution shift.
problem Certifying predictor performance under distribution shift.
method Unified framework with explicit inequalities, sound verification, and identifiable structure.
result Explicit upper bound on excess risk under shift.
Derives exact gradients for linear optics with single photons.
problem Gradient estimation for linear optics with single photons.
method Generalized parameter shift rule for linear optics.
result Derives analytical formula for gradients in linear optics.
A learning algorithm optimizes beamforming for holographic transceivers in far-field communication.
problem Optimal phase-shifts for beamforming in holographic transceivers are challenging due to unknown receiver locations and large phase-shifts.
method Developed a learning algorithm using a fixed-budget multi-armed bandit framework to learn optimal phase-shifts.
result The algorithm, HoloBeam, outperforms state-of-the-art methods in beamforming optimization.
Express Wavenet is an improved optical diffractive neural network. At each layer, it uses wavelet-like pattern to modulate the phase of optical waves. For input image with n2 pixels, express wavenet reduce parameter number from O(n2) to O(n). Only need one percent of the parameters, and the accuracy is still very high.…
This paper presents the construction of a particle filter, which incorporates elements inspired by genetic algorithms, in order to achieve accelerated adaptation of the estimated posterior distribution to changes in model parameters. Specifically, the filter is designed for the situation where the subsequent data in on…
Typically, operational risk losses are reported above some threshold. This paper studies the impact of ignoring data truncation on the 0.999 quantile of the annual loss distribution for operational risk for a broad range of distribution parameters and truncation levels. Loss frequency and severity are modelled by the P…
New method corrects biased predictions and uncertainty estimates in classification with nuisance parameters.
problem Tackles biased predictions and invalid uncertainty estimates in classification with nuisance parameters.
method Proposes a method that estimates ROC across the entire nuisance parameter space to devise invariant cutoffs.
result Demonstrates effective domain adaptation and valid prediction sets with high power.
This work addresses the problem of segmentation in time series data with respect to a statistical parameter of interest in Bayesian models. It is common to assume that the parameters are distinct within each segment. As such, many Bayesian change point detection models do not exploit the segment parameter patterns, whi…
A new policy for contextual bandits adapts to reward vector shifts.
problem Learning under reward vector shifts with ordered rewards.
method Adaptive-discretization and optimistic elimination policy.
result Established upper bounds on preference-based regret.
In this paper, we study two classes of planar self-similar fractals Tε with a shifting parameter ε. The first one is a class of self-similar tiles by shifting x-coordinates of some digits. We give a detailed discussion on the disk-likeness ({\it i.e., the property of being a topological disk}…
SAMPLR optimizes for ground truth in aleatoric parameters to avoid curriculum-induced covariate shift.
problem Curriculum learning shifts training distribution, leading to suboptimal policies in aleatoric settings.
method SAMPLR optimizes ground-truth utility function, avoiding curriculum-induced covariate shift.
result SAMPLR preserves optimality under ground-truth distribution, promoting robustness across various environments.
New algorithm provides robust uncertainty quantification without parameter tuning.
problem Real-world machine learning predictors need reliable uncertainty quantification.
method Parameter-free, group-conditional online prediction algorithm.
result Achieves best group-conditional coverage guarantees.
Machine learning detects tipping points in complex systems.
problem Detecting abrupt shifts in complex dynamical systems.
method Equilibrium-informed neural networks (EINNs) trained on candidate equilibrium states.
result EINNs can identify critical thresholds in nonlinear systems.
A probabilistic framework for online test-time adaptation
problem Adapting models to new data under distributional shift
method State-space modelling architecture
result Characterizing parameter learning, time evolution, prior tuning, and prediction
New method tracks shifts in infinite-armed bandits without prior knowledge.
problem Tracking shifts in non-stationary infinite-armed bandits.
method Blackbox conversion of finite-armed MAB to infinite-armed non-stationary, randomized elimination.
result First parameter-free optimal regret bounds for all reservoir regularity regimes.
FADE adapts machine learning models to evolving data efficiently.
problem Sequential covariate shift in dynamic environments.
method FADE uses Fisher information geometry for robust learning under SCS.
result FADE achieves up to 19% higher accuracy under severe shifts.
New method encodes function preferences into neural nets for better generalization.
problem Challenges in encoding explicit function preferences in neural network training.
method Function-space empirical Bayes (FSEB) regularization.
result FSEB leads to near-perfect semantic shift detection and improved generalization.
Method identifies shifts leading to large model performance differences.
problem Detecting shifts in distribution that affect model performance.
method Parametric changes in causal mechanisms define robustness sets; worst-case optimization problem approximated as non-convex quadratic.
result Second-order approximation of worst-case loss for small shifts, leading to efficient algorithms.
CAdam optimizes online learning by adapting to distribution shifts and noise.
problem Challenges in online learning data, including distribution shifts and noise, affect Adam's performance.
method CAdam uses a confidence-based approach to assess the consistency between momentum and gradients before updating parameters.
result CAdam outperforms other optimizers in various settings with distribution shift or noise.
Novel parametrized graph shift operators improve graph neural network performance.
problem Improving graph neural network performance on various datasets.
method Proposed a novel parametrized graph shift operator (PGSO) that optimizes parameters during training.
result PGSO improves accuracy in node and graph classification tasks on real-world datasets.
This paper improves GP-UCB by using a shifted exponential distribution for confidence parameters.
problem Theoretical confidence parameter in GP-UCB increases with iterations, leading to large values.
method Introduced IRGP-UCB, a randomized variant of GP-UCB using a shifted exponential distribution for confidence parameters.
result IRGP-UCB achieves sub-linear regret without increasing the confidence parameter.
CATS adapts multivariate time series models by addressing correlation shift.
problem Correlation differences across domains in multivariate time series data.
method CATS introduces correlation shift to measure domain differences, and uses a graph attention module and temporal convolution to align target correlations with source correlations.
result CATS increases over 10% average accuracy compared to vanilla Transformer-based models with minimal additional parameters.
Study on estimating signals from shifted and noisy copies in high dimensions, revealing a phase transition.
problem Estimating a signal in high-dimensional space from its circularly-shifted and noisy copies.
method Analysis of sample complexity in the high-dimensional regime, focusing on the parameter α.
result A phase transition phenomenon governed by α, with different sample complexities based on α values.
Improves model robustness to shifts in subpopulations.
problem Poor performance of ML models under data distribution shifts.
method Develops group-aware priors (GAP) over neural network parameters.
result Training with GAP yields state-of-the-art performance.
This paper improves conformal prediction for robust interval estimation under distribution shifts.
problem Robustness of conformal prediction under distribution shifts.
method Modeling distribution shifts using Levy-Prokhorov (LP) ambiguity sets, which capture both local and global perturbations.
result Constructs robust conformal prediction intervals that remain valid under distribution shifts.
Paper proposes a new regularization method to prevent model degradation under distribution shifts.
problem Model performance degrades under distribution shifts.
method Supervised contrastive learning with heterogeneous similarity.
result The proposed method outperforms existing regularization methods on benchmark datasets.
FDN improves probabilistic regressors' adaptability to distribution shifts.
problem Overconfidence in modern probabilistic regressors under distribution shift.
method FDN uses input-conditioned distributions over network weights, trained with a Monte Carlo beta-ELBO objective.
result FDN produces predictive mixtures whose dispersion adapts to the input, providing shift-aware uncertainty.
A family of parsimonious shifted asymmetric Laplace mixture models is introduced. We extend the mixture of factor analyzers model to the shifted asymmetric Laplace distribution. Imposing constraints on the constitute parts of the resulting decomposed component scale matrices leads to a family of parsimonious models. An…
A new method for covariate shift adaptation using nearest neighbors.
problem Mitigating distribution shift between source and target datasets.
method Directly work on unlabeled target data, labeled by nearest neighbors in source data.
result Optimal choice of k=1 simplifies hyper-parameter tuning and improves efficiency. Two approaches improve conformal Bayes for label shift, one post-hoc and one in-training.
problem Improving prediction sets for target domain under label shift.
method Two complementary approaches: post-hoc calibration and in-training adaptation.
result In-training adaptation achieves up to 43% width reduction at unchanged coverage.
New insights into SGD and generalization via shift-curvature and bias-curvature mechanisms.
problem Understanding the role of curvature in generalization and how SGD affects it.
method Derivation of new SGD steady-state distribution and analysis of shift-curvature and bias-curvature mechanisms.
result Shift-curvature is a significant factor in test performance, especially for small SGD noise.
We present a novel methodology able to distinguish meaningful level shifts from typical signal fluctuations. A two-stage regularization filtering can accurately identify the location of the significant level-shifts with an efficient parameter-free algorithm. The developed methodology demands low computational effort an…
We propose a novel calibration method for computer simulators, dealing with the problem of covariate shift. Covariate shift is the situation where input distributions for training and test are different, and ubiquitous in applications of simulations. Our approach is based on Bayesian inference with kernel mean embeddin…
New method corrects bias in datasets using cumulative distribution functions.
problem Varying domains and biased datasets lead to differences between training and target distributions.
method Empirical cumulative distribution function estimates of the target distribution, rigorously generalized.
result Method is more robust, not reliant on parameter tuning, and performs similarly to state-of-the-art techniques.
Estimates proxy-based inference adjustments for distribution shifts.
problem Imperfect proxy data leads to biased inference.
method Empirical calibration of proxy-primary metric discrepancy as a random effect.
result Empowers inference without individual-level response data.
Adaptive model learns from time series data with changing distributions.
problem Predicting time series data under distribution shift.
method Formulates distribution shift as weighted empirical risk minimization. Uses a gradient-based learning method for a forgetting mechanism.
result Proposes an efficient method for adaptive time series prediction.
New CPS model tackles conditional probability shift in machine learning.
problem Discrepancy between source and target distributions in machine learning.
method Conditional Probability Shift Model (CPSM) using multinomial regression and EM algorithm.
result Superior balanced classification accuracy on target data compared to existing methods.
Task shift from classification to regression is possible in overparameterized linear models with limited additional data.
problem Transferability of latent knowledge from classification to regression in overparameterized linear models.
method Investigation of task shift in overparameterized linear regression, zero-shot and few-shot cases, with a focus on minimum-norm interpolation.
result Minimum-norm interpolators can transfer latent knowledge from classification to regression with limited additional data.
Optimizes weights for better model performance in shifting data.
problem Improper importance weighting leads to poor model performance in data shifts.
method Interprets weights as a bias-variance trade-off and optimizes them simultaneously with model parameters.
result Optimizing weights significantly improves model generalization performance.
M-FISHER detects and adapts to streaming data shifts with statistical validity and stability.
problem Detecting and adapting to distributional shifts in streaming data.
method Constructs an exponential martingale from non-conformity scores and applies Ville's inequality for detection. Fisher-preconditioned updates for adaptation.
result Establishes M-FISHER as a principled approach for robust, anytime-valid detection and geometrically stable adaptation.
New algorithm reduces regret from sqrt(T) to polylog(T) in stochastic contextual linear bandits.
problem Achieving logarithmic regret in stochastic contextual linear bandits.
method Low Regret Stochastic Contextual Bandits ( exttt{LR-SCB}) algorithm, exploiting stochastic contexts and parameter estimation.
result Logarithmic regret (polylog(T)) achieved, improving over sqrt(T) lower bound.
Conformal Bayes under label shift: post-hoc calibration vs. in-training adaptation
problem Bayesian prediction sets under label shift
method Post-hoc calibration vs. In-training adaptation
result Both strategies achieve valid coverage equally in an unbiased training regime
The paper addresses instability in CNNs' first layer by proving max pooling's shift invariance.
problem Instability in CNNs' first layer, leading to sensitivity to small input shifts.
method Establishing conditions for max pooling's shift invariance and deriving a measure of stability.
result Max pooling approximates a nearly shift-invariant complex modulus under certain conditions.
Optimally tackles covariate shift in RKHS-based nonparametric regression.
problem Covariate shift in nonparametric regression over RKHS.
method Two families of covariate shift problems defined using likelihood ratios. Minimax rate-optimal estimators for KRR and reweighted KRR.
result KRR is minimax rate-optimal and strictly sub-optimal compared to naive estimator under covariate shift.
A mixture of shifted asymmetric Laplace distributions is introduced and used for clustering and classification. A variant of the EM algorithm is developed for parameter estimation by exploiting the relationship with the general inverse Gaussian distribution. This approach is mathematically elegant and relatively comput…
PerfGD solves model-induced data shifts by finding optimal points.
problem Model-induced data shifts where model choice changes data distribution.
method Performative Gradient Descent (PerfGD) which explicitly captures model-data interactions.
result PerfGD provably converges to performatively optimal point.