New algorithm provides robust uncertainty quantification without parameter tuning.
problem Real-world machine learning predictors need reliable uncertainty quantification.
method Parameter-free, group-conditional online prediction algorithm.
result Achieves best group-conditional coverage guarantees.
The paper examines conditions for Einstein multiply warped products and estimates their parameters.
problem Existence and non-existence of non-trivial Einstein multiply warped products.
method Analyzes conditions for the existence or non-existence of Einstein multiply warped products, especially generalized Kasner type.
result Estimates the Einstein parameter that conditions the existence of such metrics.
Training-free model learns SDE dynamics without training, accelerating parameter studies.
problem High computational cost of simulating parameter-dependent SDEs.
method Training-free conditional diffusion model with joint kernel-weighted Monte Carlo estimator.
result Accurate approximation of conditional distributions across varying parameter values.
New inequalities for convex curves with multiple geometric factors.
problem Establishing inequalities for convex curves with multiple geometric factors.
method Parametric isoperimetric-type inequalities for closed convex curves with parameter conditions and equality conditions.
result Derived new inequalities and improved versions of existing inequalities.
We study asymptotic properties of some (essentially conditional least squares) parameter estimators for the subcritical Heston model based on discrete time observations derived from conditional least squares estimators of some modified parameters.
Improved Bayesian optimization for conditional parameter spaces.
problem Efficient global optimization of expensive-to-evaluate functions in conditional parameter spaces.
method Additive tree-structured covariance function for conditional parameter optimization.
result Significantly improved sample-efficiency and wider applicability compared to existing methods.
We orthogonalize the NSS model to condition and diagnose its ill-conditioned parameters.
problem The ill-conditioning of the NSS model's design matrix.
method Exact orthogonal reparametrization via QR decomposition.
result Orthogonalization isolates the conditioning structure and maintains fit uncertainty.
Catastrophic forgetting of connectionist neural networks is caused by the global sharing of parameters among all training examples. In this study, we analyze parameter sharing under the conditional computation framework where the parameters of a neural network are conditioned on each input example. At one extreme, if e…
Unified GP model optimizes hyperparameters with conditional dependence.
problem Efficient tuning of hyperparameters in neural networks.
method Unified Bayesian optimization framework based on a new Gaussian process (GP) model.
result Higher prediction accuracy and better optimization efficiency observed.
Proposes a new method for selecting regularization parameters in sparse precision matrix estimation.
problem Selecting an appropriate regularization parameter for sparse precision matrix estimation.
method Developed a closed-form matrix-valued regularization parameter based on the sampling distribution of optimality conditions.
result The proposed method achieves comparable estimation accuracy and superior support recovery to cross-validation, with significant runtime improvements.
The gamma distribution arises frequently in Bayesian models, but there is not an easy-to-use conjugate prior for the shape parameter of a gamma. This inconvenience is usually dealt with by using either Metropolis-Hastings moves, rejection sampling methods, or numerical integration. However, in models with a large numbe…
Integrates estimation and optimization for uncertain parameters.
problem Optimizing with uncertain parameters whose distributions can be estimated.
method Integrated Conditional Estimation-Optimization (ICEO) framework.
result Asymptotically consistent and provides finite performance guarantees.
The paper explores strong identifiability and parameter learning in regression models with heterogeneous responses.
problem Understanding heterogeneity in data populations through conditional distributions of a response variable.
method Investigation of strong identifiability, convergence rates, and posterior contraction behavior in finite mixture of regression models.
result Theoretical findings on conditions for strong identifiability and rates of convergence in regression mixture models.
A nonparametric family of conditional distributions is introduced, which generalizes conditional exponential families using functional parameters in a suitable RKHS. An algorithm is provided for learning the generalized natural parameter, and consistency of the estimator is established in the well specified case. In ex…
Conditional meta-learning improves meta-learning performance in diverse task environments.
problem Meta-learning struggles with tasks that have heterogeneous complexity.
method Conditional meta-learning infers a task-specific meta-parameter vector.
result Conditional meta-learning outperforms standard meta-learning in diverse task environments.
We consider the numerical stability of the parameter recovery problem in Linear Structural Equation Model ($\LSEM$) of causal inference. A long line of work starting from Wright (1920) has focused on understanding which sub-classes of $\LSEM$ allow for efficient parameter recovery. Despite decades of study, this questi…
In practical Bayesian optimization, we must often search over structures with differing numbers of parameters. For instance, we may wish to search over neural network architectures with an unknown number of layers. To relate performance data gathered for different architectures, we define a new kernel for conditional p…
Bayesian optimization adapted for experiments with changing environmental conditions.
problem Optimizing experiments influenced by uncontrollable environmental factors.
method Extends Bayesian optimization to handle both controllable and uncontrollable parameters, fitting a global surrogate model and optimizing only controllable parameters conditionally on measurements of uncontrollable variables.
result The proposed ENVBO algorithm finds solutions for the full domain of the environmental variable more efficiently and cost-effectively than traditional methods.
A new meta-learning method using shared variational inference.
problem Meta-learning with uncertainty over model parameters.
method Shared amortized variational inference network for conditional prior and posterior.
result Prevents collapse of conditional prior to Dirac delta function.
We improve robust parameter estimation in causal models from observational data.
problem Robustly estimating parameters in linear structural equation models from observational data.
method Extending Sankararaman et al. (2019) to a broader class of models, providing sufficient conditions for robust identifiability.
result For a large set of parameters, robust identifiability holds and existing algorithms achieve robust identifiability.
The study calibrates neural networks' parameters through optimal contraction in prediction problems.
problem Ensuring the existence and uniqueness of optimal parameters in neural networks.
method Transforming RNNs into contractions and solving matrix equations involving Sylvester equations.
result Optimal parameters exist, are unique, and can be found through an algorithm with desired precision.
In this paper we show that in anisotropic elasticity, in the particular case of transversely isotropic media, under appropriate convexity conditions, knowledge of the qSH wave travel times determines the tilt of the axis of isotropy as well as some of the elastic material parameters, and the knowledge of qP and qSV tra…
The Schwartz-Smith model parameters are estimated using Kalman Filter with additional constraints.
problem Estimating parameters of the Schwartz-Smith model for risk-neutral pricing of futures contracts.
method Kalman Filter method with additional constraints to address parameter identification problem.
result The obtained parameter estimates are the conditional Maximum Likelihood Estimators (MLEs) evaluated within the Kalman Filter.
New method for estimating parameters in inverse problems using double robustness.
problem Estimating parameters defined as linear functionals of solutions to linear inverse problems.
method Source condition double robust inference method that uses iterated Tikhonov regularized adversarial estimators.
result Asymptotic normality of the parameter of interest as long as either the primal or dual inverse problem is sufficiently well-posed.
Investigates optimal execution under time-varying liquidity, preventing price manipulation.
problem Optimal execution with time-varying liquidity impacts and price manipulation prevention.
method Almgren-Chriss framework, deterministic time variation, well-posedness, second-order conditions, price manipulation prevention.
result Sufficient conditions for a unique solution and prevention of price manipulation.
Develops methods for constructing likelihoods and priors for Bayesian networks.
problem Learning parameters and structure of Bayesian networks from limited data.
method Introduces assumptions for constructing likelihoods and priors from small assessments.
result Allows construction of likelihoods and priors for a wide range of network structures.
PF-LaCG removes the need for knowing smoothness and strong convexity parameters for locally accelerated CG.
problem Locally accelerated CG requires knowledge of smoothness and strong convexity parameters.
method Parameter-Free Locally Accelerated CG (PF-LaCG) algorithm.
result PF-LaCG achieves local acceleration without requiring knowledge of smoothness and strong convexity parameters.
Estimates CATEs using high-dimensional linear regression models.
problem Estimating individualized causal effects (CATEs) in two treatments.
method Proposes a Lasso regression method for consistently estimating CATEs under high-dimensional and non-sparse parameters, leveraging the assumption of implicit sparsity.
result The proposed method is consistent for estimating CATEs.
Study on the limits of learning HMM parameters under various conditions.
problem Understanding the conditions under which hidden Markov model parameters can be learned.
method Nonasymptotic minimax upper and lower bounds, thresholds analysis.
result Nonasymptotic minimax bounds match up to constants, showing learnable thresholds.
Parameter inference for stochastic differential equations is challenging due to the presence of a latent diffusion process. Working with an Euler-Maruyama discretisation for the diffusion, we use variational inference to jointly learn the parameters and the diffusion paths. We use a standard mean-field variational appr…
We prove a spectral flow formula for one-parameter families of Hamiltonian systems under homoclinic boundary conditions, which relates the spectral flow to the relative Maslov index of a pair of curves of Lagrangians induced by the stable and unstable subspaces, respectively. Finally, we deduce sufficient conditions fo…
Characterizes no Butterfly arbitrage in SVI model parameters.
problem No Butterfly arbitrage in SVI implied total variance formula.
method Characterization using intermediary condition from Fukasawa (2012) and rescaling of SVI parameters.
result Simple range conditions on SVI parameters ensure no Butterfly arbitrage.
Conditions for uniquely identifying parameters of deep ReLU networks.
problem Characterizing networks whose parameters can be uniquely identified.
method Conditions on deep fully-connected feedforward ReLU neural networks.
result Parameters of the network are uniquely identified under certain conditions.
Function-space MAP estimation leads to better generalization and robustness.
problem The mismatch between parameter posterior and function posterior in model training.
method Directly estimating the most likely function implied by the model and data.
result Function-space MAP estimation can lead to flatter minima, better generalization, and improved robustness.
Type system captures CI relationships for probabilistic models.
problem Challenges in inference for models with mixed discrete and continuous parameters.
method Information flow type system for probabilistic programming.
result Well-typed programs guarantee certain CI relationships.
New approach uses negative controls to estimate causal parameters without completeness conditions.
problem Estimating causal parameters when not all confounders are observed.
method Identification strategy based on minimax learning formulations for general function classes.
result Avoids completeness conditions and uniqueness assumptions on bridge functions.
This paper deals with both complex dynamical systems and conformal iterated function systems. We study finitely generated expanding semigroups of rational maps with overlaps on the Riemann sphere. We show that if a d-parameter family of such semigroups satisfies the transversality condition, then for almost every par…
In a recent work, we presented a discriminative backend for speaker verification that achieved good out-of-the-box calibration performance on most tested conditions containing varying levels of mismatch to the training conditions. This backend mimics the standard PLDA-based backend process used in most current speaker …
The assumption that the values of model parameters are known or correctly learned, i.e., the Nishimori condition, is one of the requirements for the detectability analysis of the stochastic block model in statistical inference. In practice, however, there is no example demonstrating that we can know the model parameter…
New algorithm reduces bandit problem's regret bound to logarithmic in dimension.
problem Sparse linear bandit problem with sparse reward structure.
method Proposes an algorithm that uses compatibility condition on optimal arm.
result Achieves regret bound of O(poly log dT) without additional diversity assumptions.
Conditional forecasts improve performative prediction accuracy.
problem Performative predictions undermine standard forecasting methods.
method Condition forecasts on covariates to make them forecast-invariant.
result Proper scoring rules fail under conditioning, but two solutions are identified.
The article addresses a long-standing open problem on the justification of using variational Bayes methods for parameter estimation. We provide general conditions for obtaining optimal risk bounds for point estimates acquired from mean-field variational Bayesian inference. The conditions pertain to the existence of cer…
Ridge regression analysis under varying sample size and dimensionality.
problem Prediction error analysis in asymptotic ridge regression.
method Characterization of prediction error based on covariance and parameter structure.
result Interpolation can be optimal even with bounded SNR if true parameter coefficients are larger on high-variance directions.
Gradient descent converges to minimum Bayes risk for two-layer ReLU networks in mean field regime.
problem Training two-layer ReLU networks using gradient descent in the mean field regime.
method Describes a condition for convergence to minimum Bayes risk, extending previous results to ReLU-activated networks.
result The condition for convergence does not depend on initialization and concerns weak convergence of network realization.
Neural IVP solves IVPs with neural networks, overcoming scaling and conditioning issues.
problem Solving initial value PDEs with neural networks is challenging due to numerical errors and limited scalability.
method Developed an ODE-based approach to solve IVPs with neural networks, preventing ill-conditioning and scaling issues.
result Neural IVP solves challenging PDEs with neural networks efficiently and accurately.
Bayesian framework uses AI-generated data to improve parameter estimation.
problem Parameter estimation in models with unknown or unspecified likelihood.
method Exponentially tilted empirical likelihood with Dirichlet process posterior.
result AI-generated data can provide useful regularization for parameter estimation.
Develops theory for conditional optimal transport in infinite-dimensional spaces.
problem Bayesian inference with functional parameters in infinite-dimensional spaces.
method Theory of constrained optimal transport for block-triangular maps.
result Regularity estimates on conditioning maps from prior to posterior.
Constructing compact non-Kähler manifolds with and without the Hard Lefschetz Condition
problem Symplectic non-Kähler manifolds
method One-parameter family of symplectic forms on orbifold
result Symplectic manifolds with HLC and non-HLC structures