TLRF improves timely COVID-19 outbreak detection with small sample size counties.
problem Balancing accuracy and speed in estimating COVID-19 case growth rates.
method Transfer Learning Random Forest (TLRF) framework for growth rate estimation.
result TLRF outperforms existing methods in predicting case growth rates and timely outbreak detection.
The early detection of infectious disease outbreaks is a crucial task to protect population health. To this end, public health surveillance systems have been established to systematically collect and analyse infectious disease data. A variety of statistical tools are available, which detect potential outbreaks as abber…
Epidemiologists use a variety of statistical algorithms for the early detection of outbreaks. The practical usefulness of such methods highly depends on the trade-off between the detection rate of outbreaks and the chances of raising a false alarm. Recent research has shown that the use of machine learning for the fusi…
Social media services such as Twitter are a valuable source of information for decision support systems. Many studies have shown that this also holds for the medical domain, where Twitter is considered a viable tool for public health officials to sift through relevant information for the early detection, management, an…
Algorithm estimates COVID-19 cases from phone calls.
problem Delay in confirming COVID-19 cases.
method Modeling calls as background plus signal, fitting data with high R2. result Algorithm estimates cases days before lab results.
Several problems such as network intrusion, community detection, and disease outbreak can be described by observations attributed to nodes or edges of a graph. In these applications presence of intrusion, community or disease outbreak is characterized by novel observations on some unknown connected subgraph. These prob…
Processes such as disease propagation and information diffusion often spread over some latent network structure which must be learned from observation. Given a set of unlabeled training examples representing occurrences of an event type of interest (e.g., a disease outbreak), our goal is to learn a graph structure that…
Many methods have been proposed for detecting emerging events in text streams using topic modeling. However, these methods have shortcomings that make them unsuitable for rapid detection of locally emerging events on massive text streams. We describe Spatially Compact Semantic Scan (SCSS) that has been developed specif…
Study uses social media to analyze COVID-19 impact.
problem Understanding the global impact of COVID-19.
method Machine learning and linguistic tools to analyze social media posts.
result Automatic detection of positive reports of COVID-19.
Framework extracts symptoms from EHRs for rapid disease outbreak detection.
problem Extracting relevant data from unstructured medical texts.
method Conformal active learning for efficient data mining.
result Framework achieves strong performance with minimal manual labeling.
In retrospective assessments, internet news reports have been shown to capture early reports of unknown infectious disease transmission prior to official laboratory confirmation. In general, media interest and reporting peaks and wanes during the course of an outbreak. In this study, we quantify the extent to which med…
Enhances weather detection by learning from auxiliary information.
problem Mispredictions in unsupervised severe weather detection.
method Learning joint representations of textual and weather data.
result Improved decision boundaries for severe weather detection.
Study on financial impacts of zombie outbreak on economy.
problem Financial and economic consequences of a zombie epidemic.
method Epidemiological modeling and financial computation.
result GDP losses of 23.44% and financial market drop of 29.30% in a major industrialized nation.
New method detects close contacts to prevent SARS-CoV-2 spread.
problem Detecting close contacts to prevent SARS-CoV-2 spread.
method Machine learning approach using BLE data.
result Reliable detection of close contacts reduces SARS-CoV-2 risk.
Paper reproduces a kernel-based scan B-statistic for online change-point detection.
problem Continuous detection of distribution changes in online data streams.
method Efficient kernel-based scan B-statistic for online change-point detection.
result Scan B-statistic outperforms parametric methods in challenging scenarios.
Russia-Ukraine conflict impacts global agricultural futures and spot markets' extreme risks.
problem Impact of Russia-Ukraine conflict on global agricultural futures and spot markets' extreme risks.
method Analytical framework for tail dependence, Copula-CoVaR method, ARMA-GARCH-skewed Student-t model.
result The outbreak of the conflict intensified risks in the wheat market the most and showed significant asymmetries in extreme risk spillovers.
LAD detects anomalies in dynamic graphs using Laplacian matrix.
problem Anomaly detection in temporal graphs for real-world applications.
method LAD uses the spectrum of the Laplacian matrix to model graph snapshots and temporal dependencies.
result LAD outperforms state-of-the-art methods in synthetic and real-world datasets.
Accurate real-time monitoring systems of influenza outbreaks help public health officials make informed decisions that may help save lives. We show that information extracted from cloud-based electronic health records databases, in combination with machine learning techniques and historical epidemiological information,…
PHIBP predicts infectious disease outbreaks in sparse data regions.
problem Predicting outbreaks in regions with no historical data.
method Poisson Hierarchical Indian Buffet Process (PHIBP) framework.
result PHIBP provides accurate outbreak predictions and meaningful insights in sparse data settings.
Market structure changed dramatically in US during COVID-19, mirroring 2008 crisis.
problem Impact of COVID-19 on market structure.
method Observation of market structure changes during the outbreak.
result Market structure resembles 2008 crisis but may evolve into a new structure.
Method detects critical events in complex systems by learning latent causal structure.
problem Detecting onset of epileptic seizures, customer churn, or pandemics from hidden causal interactions.
method A machine learning method that learns an optimal feature representation from powers of the empirical covariance or precision matrix.
result Proves structural consistency and demonstrates competitive results in seizure and churn prediction.
In many application domains, time series are monitored to detect extreme events like technical faults, natural disasters, or disease outbreaks. Unfortunately, it is often non-trivial to select both a time series that is informative about events and a powerful detection algorithm: detection may fail because the detectio…
The detection of anomalous activity in graphs is a statistical problem that arises in many applications, such as network surveillance, disease outbreak detection, and activity monitoring in social networks. Beyond its wide applicability, graph structured anomaly detection serves as a case study in the difficulty of bal…
Paper presents a spatio-temporal Bayesian model for early detection of COVID-19 hotspots.
problem Understanding spatio-temporal dynamics of COVID-19 hotspots to prevent outbreaks.
method Spatio-temporal Bayesian framework with a zero-mean Gaussian process and non-stationary kernel function enhanced by deep neural networks.
result Model demonstrates superior hotspot-detection performance compared to baseline methods.
Study shows how China's stock market reflects economic demand changes during COVID-19.
problem Understanding how stock market volatility is influenced by economic demand changes.
method Divided industries into demand-oriented groups and analyzed spillover networks.
result Spillover effects from demand-oriented sectors to consumption-oriented sectors increased during the outbreak.
The paper investigates model misspecification in Bayesian inference using neural networks.
problem Detecting model misspecification in Bayesian inference with neural networks.
method Conceptualized types of model misspecification and proposed an augmented optimization objective with MMD.
result MMD can detect potentially catastrophic misspecifications in Bayesian inference.
Machine learning predicts COVID-19 activity in China.
problem Real-time forecasting of COVID-19 activity in Chinese provinces.
method Combines mechanistic disease models with digital traces (internet searches, news alerts). Uses clustering and data augmentation techniques.
result Stable and accurate forecasts 2 days ahead of current time, outperforming baseline models in 27 out of 32 provinces.
New algorithm tracks COVID-19 outbreak phases.
problem Decision-making in pandemic data.
method Developed a new algorithm (BLLR) based on decision theory.
result Demonstrated ability to track different phases of the COVID-19 outbreak.
Study links public concern in Italy to financial markets worldwide.
problem Understanding public concern's impact on financial markets during pandemics.
method Used Google Trends data from YouTube, News, and Search to measure public concern and correlate it with stock index returns.
result Public concern in Italy drives concerns in other countries and explains stock index returns of multiple nations.
Unsupervised learning identifies key factors for NYC COVID-19 spread.
problem Identify key factors for NYC COVID-19 spread.
method Unsupervised machine learning framework to cluster ZIP code areas.
result 9 interpretable categories of similar outbreak patterns identified.
New methods solve graph sparsity optimization problems faster.
problem Complex graph sparsity optimization problems in disease outbreak monitoring and social network analysis.
method Stochastic variance-reduced gradient-based methods GraphSVRG-IHT and GraphSCSG-IHT.
result Our methods achieve linear convergence speed.
EGDL predicts TB outbreaks with deep learning, integrating epidemiological models.
problem Predicting TB outbreaks with complex spatiotemporal dynamics.
method Modified MN-SIR model with Bayesian inference, deep neural networks.
result EGDL delivers robust and accurate TB outbreak predictions.
Graph neural networks predict future COVID-19 cases based on human mobility.
problem Predicting future COVID-19 cases using human mobility data.
method Created a graph with regions as nodes and human mobility as edge weights. Used graph neural networks to capture diffusion patterns and transfer learning for limited data.
result Graph neural networks outperform traditional methods in predicting future cases.
Method predicts disease outbreaks using search logs, overcoming instability.
problem Predicting disease outbreaks from search logs is challenging due to short-term and long-term instability.
method Seasonal-adjustment method decomposes logs into seasonal, trend, and irregular components; feature selection method selects relevant search terms.
result Proposed method outperforms comparative methods in prediction accuracy for seven of ten diseases.
This study diversifies stock and crypto portfolios using network analysis.
problem Balancing returns and volatility in diversified portfolios.
method Community detection in network representations of assets, using Louvain and Affinity propagation algorithms.
result Opposite trends in crypto and traditional asset markets.
Syndromic surveillance detects and monitors individual and population health indicators through sources such as emergency department records. Automated classification of these records can improve outbreak detection speed and diagnosis accuracy. Current syndromic systems rely on hand-coded keyword-based methods to parse…
Stocks of more resilient firms outperformed during the pandemic, reflecting disaster risk.
problem The impact of social distancing on firms' operations and stock performance.
method Cross-sectional analysis of firms' resilience and stock performance, controlling for risk factors.
result Stocks of more resilient firms are expected to yield significantly lower returns than less resilient ones, reflecting disaster risk.
This paper compares ML models for predicting COVID-19 trends.
problem Forecasting the spread of COVID-19 to reduce its impact.
method Applied ARDL method to identify relationships, then used ML models (SVM, RF, KNN, ANN) for prediction.
result Models accurately forecasted COVID-19 cases with low MAPE.
This study analyzes dynamic connectedness in global supply chain infrastructure portfolios, identifying key risk factors and extreme events.
problem Understanding dynamic connectedness in global supply chain infrastructure portfolios under various risk factors and extreme events.
method Time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) model to study spillover and interconnectedness of risk factors.
result Risk shocks influence dynamic connectedness between portfolios and risk factors, and extreme events affect investment outcomes.
AI uses KGs to assess economic impact of selective lockdowns on Italian companies.
problem Impact of selective lockdowns on Italian companies' economic stability.
method Automated Reasoning and Knowledge Graphs to analyze company networks.
result Identifies strategic companies at risk of takeover during lockdowns.
Proposes efficient sensitivity analysis for complex Bayesian models.
problem Inefficiency of sensitivity analyses in complex Bayesian models.
method SA-ABI: weight sharing and neural network rapid inference.
result Efficiently integrates sensitivity analyses into Bayesian inference.
Study examines cryptocurrency risk spillover effects before and after pandemic.
problem Analyzing risk propagation among cryptocurrencies during extreme events.
method Asymmetric breakpoint approach and network analysis.
result Cryptocurrency risk spillover effect increased during pandemic.
A new COVID-19 CT dataset helps develop AI diagnosis models.
problem Lack of publicly available COVID-19 CT datasets due to privacy issues.
method Built an open-sourced COVID-CT dataset and developed AI diagnosis methods.
result Developed AI diagnosis models achieving high accuracy and performance.
Ensemble classifier detects pneumonia patterns in chest CT images.
problem Manual and time-consuming diagnosis of pneumonia in chest CT images.
method Probabilistic Support Vector Machine (SVM) ensemble, kernel PCA, patch-based classification.
result 97.86% accuracy in pneumonia detection.
Online learning algorithms update models via one sample per iteration, thus efficient to process large-scale datasets and useful to detect malicious events for social benefits, such as disease outbreak and traffic congestion on the fly. However, existing algorithms for graph-structured models focused on the offline set…
Digital money could reduce germ spread during coronavirus.
problem Spreading of germs via paper money during coronavirus.
method Policy recommendations for mobile wallets, digital currencies, and data protection.
result Adopting digital money can help reduce germ spread.
Viral zoonoses have emerged as the key drivers of recent pandemics. Human infection by zoonotic viruses are either spillover events -- isolated infections that fail to cause a widespread contagion -- or species jumps, where successful adaptation to the new host leads to a pandemic. Despite expensive bio-surveillance ef…
NPE trains neural networks to approximate posterior distributions in SIR models from final outcome data.
problem Computational challenges in Bayesian inference for SIR models with final outcome data.
method Neural posterior estimation (NPE) using a logNormal posterior approximated by a neural network.
result NPE accurately recovers reference posteriors across various population sizes and transmission regimes.