MIC improves VAR order selection accuracy.
problem Order selection in VAR models for accurate forecasting.
method MIC based on expected squared error loss.
result MIC consistently estimates true VAR order.
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48 results for “order selection”
In this paper, we derive a Bayesian model order selection rule by using the exponentially embedded family method, termed Bayesian EEF. Unlike many other Bayesian model selection methods, the Bayesian EEF can use vague proper priors and improper noninformative priors to be objective in the elicitation of parameter prior…
Paper optimizes portfolio selection with ICX order constraints.
problem Minimizing portfolio variance with ICX order constraints.
method Optimal and efficient portfolios are derived in closed form.
result Closed-form solutions for optimal and efficient portfolios.
One of the longstanding open problems in spectral graph clustering (SGC) is the so-called model order selection problem: automated selection of the correct number of clusters. This is equivalent to the problem of finding the number of connected components or communities in an undirected graph. We propose automated mode…
New method finds significant high-order interactions efficiently.
problem Finding statistically significant high-order interactions in high-dimensional data.
method Extends selective inference to high-order interaction models with pruning strategy.
result Demonstrated efficient and powerful method for high-order interactions.
We introduce a computationally effective algorithm for a linear model selection consisting of three steps: screening--ordering--selection (SOS). Screening of predictors is based on the thresholded Lasso that is l_1 penalized least squares. The screened predictors are then fitted using least squares (LS) and ordered wit…
One of the longstanding problems in spectral graph clustering (SGC) is the so-called model order selection problem: automated selection of the correct number of clusters. This is equivalent to the problem of finding the number of connected components or communities in an undirected graph. In this paper, we propose AMOS…
This paper is split in three parts: first we use labelled trade data to exhibit how market participants accept or not transactions via limit orders as a function of liquidity imbalance; then we develop a theoretical stochastic control framework to provide details on how one can exploit his knowledge on liquidity imbala…
EASE optimizes exemplar selection for ICL in LLMs efficiently.
problem Efficiently selecting exemplars for in-context learning (ICL) in large language models (LLMs).
method EASE uses neural bandit algorithms to optimize exemplar sets, considering both exemplar ordering and instruction.
result EASE outperforms existing methods in finding optimal exemplar sets for all test queries.
AI traders learn to exploit meta-orders from slower traders, increasing their profits.
problem Adverse selection of medium-frequency traders by high-frequency AI agents.
method Reinforcement learning in a Hawkes LOB model, with impulse control and PPO.
result AI agents can learn to capitalize on meta-orders, increasing their profits.
H-GAT improves stock selection by capturing complex higher-order stock relations and integrating both technical and fundamental analysis.
problem Stock selection difficulty and lack of comprehensive analysis.
method Higher-order Graph Attention Network (H-GAT) that incorporates both technical and fundamental analysis.
result H-GAT outperforms existing methods in stock selection metrics.
In the context of variable selection, ensemble learning has gained increasing interest due to its great potential to improve selection accuracy and to reduce false discovery rate. A novel ordering-based selective ensemble learning strategy is designed in this paper to obtain smaller but more accurate ensembles. In part…
Finding statistically significant high-order interaction features in predictive modeling is important but challenging task. The difficulty lies in the fact that, for a recent applications with high-dimensional covariates, the number of possible high-order interaction features would be extremely large. Identifying stati…
Vector autoregression (VAR) is a fundamental tool for modeling multivariate time series. However, as the number of component series is increased, the VAR model becomes overparameterized. Several authors have addressed this issue by incorporating regularized approaches, such as the lasso in VAR estimation. Traditional a…
Paper evaluates and improves private feature selection methods.
problem Feature selection in high-dimensional datasets with privacy constraints.
method Correlations-based order statistic privatized for feature selection.
result Our method significantly outperforms established baseline for private feature selection.
In neuroimaging data analysis, Gaussian graphical models are often used to model statistical dependencies across spatially remote brain regions known as functional connectivity. Typically, data is collected across a cohort of subjects and the scientific objectives consist of estimating population and subject-specific g…
A Constant Approximation Algorithm for Sequential Random-Order No-Substitution k-Median Clusteringcs.LG
New algorithm for clustering data streams with no substitutions.
problem Clustering sequential data with no point substitution.
method Careful risk estimation, linear bin division, multiscale center selection.
result First constant approximation algorithm for random-order k-median clustering.
New regularization scheme for FMs improves feature interaction selection.
problem Feature selection in FMs leads to loss of feature interactions.
method Proposes a new regularization scheme for FMs with upper bound of regularizer.
result Improves feature interaction selection without restricting sparsity patterns.
Information theoretic criteria (ITC) have been widely adopted in engineering and statistics for selecting, among an ordered set of candidate models, the one that better fits the observed sample data. The selected model minimizes a penalized likelihood metric, where the penalty is determined by the criterion adopted. Wh…
Study optimal portfolio selection using average and current profitability of risky assets.
problem Continuous-time mean-variance portfolio selection in time-varying financial markets.
method Introduced AP and CP indexes; estimated AP and CP using second-order variation of an auxiliary wealth process.
result Estimations of AP and CP are more accurate than traditional MLE.
Learning Selectively Conditioned Forest Structures with Applications to DBNs and Classificationcs.LG
Dealing with uncertainty in Bayesian Network structures using maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation or Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is often intractable due to the superexponential number of possible directed, acyclic graphs. When the prior is decomposable, two classes of graphs where efficient learning can take plac…
A new method sorts models to find the best one with minimal risk.
problem Finding the best model with minimal risk among nested models.
method Nested Empirical Risk (NER) and Sorted NER (S-NER) methods.
result The S-NER method selects the true model order and the most parsimonious model.
This paper develops a method to select a reference contract for multi-contract quoting to minimize execution risk.
problem Minimizing execution risk in multi-contract quoting sequences.
method Develops a diagnostic framework using order-flow Hawkes forecasts and CLF to select a stable reference contract.
result Event-history and LOB-state signals offer complementary views for reference-contract selection.
Data selection methods, such as active learning and core-set selection, are useful tools for machine learning on large datasets. However, they can be prohibitively expensive to apply in deep learning because they depend on feature representations that need to be learned. In this work, we show that we can greatly improv…
New analysis reveals gaps in selective classifiers, guiding improvements.
problem Improving selective classifiers to match perfect-ordering oracle performance.
method Formalized selective classification gap, decomposed into five sources of looseness.
result Monotone post-hoc calibration has limited impact on closing the gap.
Cost-effective feature selection improves network model choice.
problem Selecting informative features from noisy candidates in network models.
method Adapted feature selection methods to account for feature costs and used pilot simulations.
result Reduced computational cost by two orders of magnitude without sacrificing model accuracy.
Given a set of assets and an investment capital, the classical portfolio selection problem consists in determining the amount of capital to be invested in each asset in order to build the most profitable portfolio. The portfolio optimization problem is naturally modeled as a mean-risk bi-criteria optimization problem w…
This paper improves volatility forecasting using dynamic subset selection in genetic programming.
problem Improving accuracy of implied volatility forecasting.
method Dynamic training-subset selection methods applied to genetic programming.
result Dynamic subset selection improves predictive accuracy of genetic programming models.
Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) yields a linear, approximate model of a system's dynamics that is built from data. We seek to reduce the order of this model by identifying a reduced set of modes that best fit the output. We adopt a model selection algorithm from statistics and machine learning known as Least Angle Reg…
Balances the regret of different algorithms in bandit and RL problems.
problem Model selection in bandit and reinforcement learning.
method Estimates and balances the empirical regrets of algorithms.
result Achieves near-optimal regret compared to the optimal base algorithm.
Bayesian BIC for multi-trial data improves VAR model order selection.
problem Optimal VAR model order selection for multi-trial event-based data.
method Derive and apply Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) for multi-trial ensemble data.
result Multi-trial BIC successfully recovers real model order and estimates small model order.
In unsupervised learning, an unbiased uniform sampling strategy is typically used, in order that the learned features faithfully encode the statistical structure of the training data. In this work, we explore whether active example selection strategies - algorithms that select which examples to use, based on the curren…
Support vector machine (SVM) training is an active research area since the dawn of the method. In recent years there has been increasing interest in specialized solvers for the important case of linear models. The algorithm presented by Hsieh et al., probably best known under the name of the "liblinear" implementation,…
The paper explores how smaller data sets can lead to better model selection decisions.
problem Model selection in small data regimes.
method Empirical study of generalization performance with varying training set sizes.
result Training on smaller subsets of data can lead to more reliable model selection decisions.
Thompson Sampling tackles USS, a sequential selection problem without feedback.
problem Unsupervised Sequential Selection (USS) problem with fixed costs and ordered arms.
method Thompson Sampling algorithm for USS problem.
result Thompson Sampling achieves near optimal regret and better performance than existing algorithms.
We develop a robust convex algorithm to select the regularization parameter in model selection. In practice this would be automated in order to save practitioners time from having to tune it manually. In particular, we implement and test the convex method for -fold cross validation on ridge regression, although the …
Roy's `Safety First' criterion for selecting one risky asset from many is adapted to the case of non-normal returns, via Cornish Fisher expansion. The resulting investment objective is consistent with first order stochastic dominance, and is equal to the Sharpe ratio for the case of normal returns. An investor selectin…
Sunshine trading theory predicts lower execution costs and liquidity provision through explicit preannouncements, but evidence is scarce in traditional markets.
problem Adverse selection on liquidity provision
method Reconstructing metaorders and comparing them with visible TWAP executions
result Visible TWAPs face lower execution costs and leave a smaller permanent price impact compared to hidden metaorders.
The study uses equity order flow to forecast stock returns and resolves the liquidity premium puzzle.
problem The liquidity premium and its relation to investment horizons.
method Directly estimated Kyle's price-impact coefficient λ from daily equity order flow data.
result Signed order flow predicts stock returns, with volume volatility predicting lower returns.
Pattern analysis often requires a pre-processing stage for extracting or selecting features in order to help the classification, prediction, or clustering stage discriminate or represent the data in a better way. The reason for this requirement is that the raw data are complex and difficult to process without extractin…
Solar: solution path averaging for fast and accurate variable selection in high-dimensional datastat.ML
Solar algorithm selects variables faster and more accurately in high-dimensional data.
problem Variable selection in high-dimensional data with high accuracy and stability.
method Subsample-ordered least-angle regression (solar) and its coordinate descent generalization (solar-cd) using norm solution path averaging.
result Solar selects variables with high accuracy and stability, reducing redundant variable selection.
Cryptocurrency patterns stable across market caps, validated by microstructure theory.
problem Stable patterns in cryptocurrency microstructure across different market caps.
method Unified CatBoost modeling pipeline with time-series cross validation, validated by backtests.
result Feature rankings and partial effects are stable across assets despite heterogeneous liquidity and volatility.
Study shows informed traders harm market makers but price discovery benefits outweigh costs.
problem Informed traders' impact on market makers' profitability.
method Agent-based model with heterogeneous learning agents, multi-agent reinforcement learning.
result Informed market order flow is harmful when aggregate informedness is low but beneficial as it increases.
User surveys for Quality of Experience (QoE) are a critical source of information. In addition to the common "star rating" used to estimate Mean Opinion Score (MOS), more detailed survey questions (problem tokens) about specific areas provide valuable insight into the factors impacting QoE. This paper explores two aspe…
We propose a limit order book (LOB) model with dynamics that account for both the impact of the most recent order and the shape of the LOB. We present an empirical analysis showing that the type of the last order significantly alters the submission rate of immediate future orders, even after accounting for the state of…
IWeS selects examples by entropy-based importance sampling for subset selection.
problem Efficiently selecting examples for model training in batch settings.
method IWeS uses importance sampling based on model entropy to select examples.
result IWeS outperforms other subset selection algorithms on seven datasets.
NGP selects N features from P using neural networks in a greedy, iterative process.
problem Feature selection for non-linear prediction problems.
method Neural Greedy Pursuit (NGP) algorithm, selecting features sequentially in an iterative loss minimization procedure.
result NGP provides better performance than DeepLIFT and Drop-one-out loss methods.
In order to cluster or partition data, we often use Expectation-and-Maximization (EM) or Variational approximation with a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), which is a parametric probability density function represented as a weighted sum of Gaussian component densities. However, model selection to find underlying …