A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Differentiable relaxation for inferring partial orders from noisy linear data.
problem Inference of partial orders from linear data with noisy observations.
method Introducing a differentiable relaxation to model noisy linear extensions, replacing discontinuous precedence and feasibility with smooth surrogates.
result Smooth posterior that preserves partial-order semantics, supports gradient-based inference, and converges to hard likelihood.
We introduce TrustVI, a fast second-order algorithm for black-box variational inference based on trust-region optimization and the reparameterization trick. At each iteration, TrustVI proposes and assesses a step based on minibatches of draws from the variational distribution. The algorithm provably converges to a stat…
The Neural Autoregressive Distribution Estimator (NADE) and its real-valued version RNADE are competitive density models of multidimensional data across a variety of domains. These models use a fixed, arbitrary ordering of the data dimensions. One can easily condition on variables at the beginning of the ordering, and …
Proposes exact inference for continuous-time Gaussian process dynamics.
problem Inexact inference methods for continuous-time Gaussian process dynamics are impractical for irregularly-sampled data.
method Uses higher-order numerical integrators to discretize dynamics with arbitrary accuracy and proposes multistep and Taylor integrators for exact inference.
result Demonstrates accurate representation of continuous-time systems through exact GP inference.
We describe and extract time-ordered multibody interactions from complex systems.
problem Complex systems with temporal and multibody dependencies.
method Decompose multivariate Markov chains into time-ordered multibody interactions. Algorithm to extract interactions from data. Measure complexity of interaction ensembles.
result Robust and efficient algorithm to infer time-ordered multibody interactions from data.
We propose a novel interpretation of the collapsed variational Bayes inference with a zero-order Taylor expansion approximation, called CVB0 inference, for latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA). We clarify the properties of the CVB0 inference by using the alpha-divergence. We show that the CVB0 inference is composed of two…
For joint inference over multiple variables, a variety of structured prediction techniques have been developed to model correlations among variables and thereby improve predictions. However, many classical approaches suffer from one of two primary drawbacks: they either lack the ability to model high-order correlations…
We consider the problem of approximate Bayesian inference in log-supermodular models. These models encompass regular pairwise MRFs with binary variables, but allow to capture high-order interactions, which are intractable for existing approximate inference techniques such as belief propagation, mean field, and variants…
Finding statistically significant high-order interaction features in predictive modeling is important but challenging task. The difficulty lies in the fact that, for a recent applications with high-dimensional covariates, the number of possible high-order interaction features would be extremely large. Identifying stati…
We describe Venture, an interactive virtual machine for probabilistic programming that aims to be sufficiently expressive, extensible, and efficient for general-purpose use. Like Church, probabilistic models and inference problems in Venture are specified via a Turing-complete, higher-order probabilistic language desce…
Statistical relational models provide compact encodings of probabilistic dependencies in relational domains, but result in highly intractable graphical models. The goal of lifted inference is to carry out probabilistic inference without needing to reason about each individual separately, by instead treating exchangeabl…
We extend the framework of variational autoencoders to represent transformations explicitly in the latent space. In the family of hierarchical graphical models that emerges, the latent space is populated by higher order objects that are inferred jointly with the latent representations they act on. To explicitly demonst…
We develop a new Low-level, First-order Probabilistic Programming Language (LF-PPL) suited for models containing a mix of continuous, discrete, and/or piecewise-continuous variables. The key success of this language and its compilation scheme is in its ability to automatically distinguish parameters the density functio…
Machine-learning (ML) hardware and software system demand is burgeoning. Driven by ML applications, the number of different ML inference systems has exploded. Over 100 organizations are building ML inference chips, and the systems that incorporate existing models span at least three orders of magnitude in power consump…
A power-law fit to the empirical inference-compute frontier in LOB prediction suggests a scaling-law-style frontier.
problem Limit order book prediction
method Using a suite of models ranging from small decision trees to neural LOB architectures
result A power-law fit to the low- and mid-compute non-MLPLOB frontier extrapolates across multiple orders of magnitude and attains R2=0.941 on the excluded high-compute MLPLOB target frontier.
We consider higher-order linear-chain conditional random fields (HO-LC-CRFs) for sequence modelling, and use sum-product networks (SPNs) for representing higher-order input- and output-dependent factors. SPNs are a recently introduced class of deep models for which exact and efficient inference can be performed. By com…