Research
On-device research index

arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

Trend · papers per month

136271407542 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for order inference

Paper tackles high-order inference in structured prediction tasks.

problem Maximizing a score function on the space of labels in high-order Markov random fields.
method Generative model approach with two-stage convex optimization algorithm.
result Success in general high-order inference problems driven by hyperedge expansion properties.

Differentiable relaxation for inferring partial orders from noisy linear data.

problem Inference of partial orders from linear data with noisy observations.
method Introducing a differentiable relaxation to model noisy linear extensions, replacing discontinuous precedence and feasibility with smooth surrogates.
result Smooth posterior that preserves partial-order semantics, supports gradient-based inference, and converges to hard likelihood.

SOLBP extends efficient inference to uncertain Bayesian networks.

problem Inference in uncertain Bayesian networks with second-order probabilities.
method Extends Loopy Belief Propagation to second-order Bayesian networks.
result Generates inferences consistent with sum-product networks, more efficient and scalable.

Combines neural networks and probabilistic graphical models for efficient higher-order inference.

problem Lack of efficient higher-order relational information in graph neural networks and probabilistic graphical models.
method Derives efficient approximate sum-product loopy belief propagation for higher-order PGMs, embeds into neural network, proposes methods for constructing higher-order factors.
result Substantially outperforms state-of-the-art k-order graph neural networks in molecular datasets.

Bayesian causal inference method improves accuracy over traditional approaches.

problem Bayesian marginalisation over causal models is computationally infeasible.
method Decomposes structure marginalisation into causal orders and DAGs, using Gaussian processes for mechanisms and ARCO for orders.
result Method outperforms state-of-the-art in structure learning and inference.

A framework infers hyperedges and overlapping communities in hypergraphs.

problem Characterizing the structural organization of hypergraphs with higher-order interactions.
method Statistical inference to infer missing hyperedges and detect overlapping communities.
result Efficient numerical implementation and strong performance on real-world systems.

New method improves inference for discrete diffusion models, achieving better quality and efficiency.

problem High dimensionality of discrete diffusion models causes inference challenges.
method Developed high-order numerical inference schemes for discrete diffusion models.
result Second-order accuracy of the θθ-Trapezoidal method in KL divergence.

The Neural Autoregressive Distribution Estimator (NADE) and its real-valued version RNADE are competitive density models of multidimensional data across a variety of domains. These models use a fixed, arbitrary ordering of the data dimensions. One can easily condition on variables at the beginning of the ordering, and …

2013-10-07abs ↗pdf ↗

New method finds significant high-order interactions efficiently.

problem Finding statistically significant high-order interactions in high-dimensional data.
method Extends selective inference to high-order interaction models with pruning strategy.
result Demonstrated efficient and powerful method for high-order interactions.

Proposes exact inference for continuous-time Gaussian process dynamics.

problem Inexact inference methods for continuous-time Gaussian process dynamics are impractical for irregularly-sampled data.
method Uses higher-order numerical integrators to discretize dynamics with arbitrary accuracy and proposes multistep and Taylor integrators for exact inference.
result Demonstrates accurate representation of continuous-time systems through exact GP inference.

We describe and extract time-ordered multibody interactions from complex systems.

problem Complex systems with temporal and multibody dependencies.
method Decompose multivariate Markov chains into time-ordered multibody interactions. Algorithm to extract interactions from data. Measure complexity of interaction ensembles.
result Robust and efficient algorithm to infer time-ordered multibody interactions from data.

Geometric framework analyzes bias in variational inference for posterior functionals.

problem Analyzing the bias of posterior functionals under variational approximations.
method Developed a geometric framework to evaluate the bias of posterior functionals using the variational tangent space.
result The leading-order bias of a posterior functional is determined by its component orthogonal to the variational tangent space.

We propose a novel interpretation of the collapsed variational Bayes inference with a zero-order Taylor expansion approximation, called CVB0 inference, for latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA). We clarify the properties of the CVB0 inference by using the alpha-divergence. We show that the CVB0 inference is composed of two…

2012-06-27abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper tackles uncertainties in reduced-order modeling of complex systems.

problem Model-form uncertainties in reduced-order modeling of complex systems.
method Combines Riemannian projection and retraction operators on a subset of the Stiefel manifold with an information-theoretic formulation.
result Identifies and quantifies the impact of model-form uncertainties on inferred operators.

A new probabilistic BTD method for tensor data.

problem Modeling higher-order tensors with robust inference.
method Probabilistic Block-Term Decomposition using variational Bayesian inference and von-Mises Fisher distribution.
result The proposed pBTD can quantify multi-linear structures robustly.

For joint inference over multiple variables, a variety of structured prediction techniques have been developed to model correlations among variables and thereby improve predictions. However, many classical approaches suffer from one of two primary drawbacks: they either lack the ability to model high-order correlations…

2019-10-31abs ↗pdf ↗

A method for inferring motility models and heterogeneity from particle trajectories.

problem Understanding motility patterns from discrete trajectory data of biological agents.
method Maximum likelihood approach for second-order Langevin models with population heterogeneity.
result The proposed method outperforms alternative approaches for short trajectories.

We consider the problem of approximate Bayesian inference in log-supermodular models. These models encompass regular pairwise MRFs with binary variables, but allow to capture high-order interactions, which are intractable for existing approximate inference techniques such as belief propagation, mean field, and variants…

2015-02-23abs ↗pdf ↗

Finding statistically significant high-order interaction features in predictive modeling is important but challenging task. The difficulty lies in the fact that, for a recent applications with high-dimensional covariates, the number of possible high-order interaction features would be extremely large. Identifying stati…

2015-06-26abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper extends hypothesis testing to non-diagonalizable matrices, improving network statistics inference.

problem Testing on non-diagonalizable matrices for network statistics.
method Generalizes Wald and t-tests to non-symmetric matrices, controlling convergence rates.
result Improved inference on network statistics from directed networks.

Statistical relational models provide compact encodings of probabilistic dependencies in relational domains, but result in highly intractable graphical models. The goal of lifted inference is to carry out probabilistic inference without needing to reason about each individual separately, by instead treating exchangeabl…

2016-10-26abs ↗pdf ↗

Autoregressive flow models can perform causal discovery and inference tasks.

problem Causal inference tasks such as causal discovery and interventional predictions.
method Using autoregressive flow models to estimate causal directions and make predictions.
result Autoregressive flows can accurately perform causal inference tasks without restrictive assumptions.

Optimizes random forest inference by defining step order to maximize accuracy.

problem Limited inference time in resource-constrained systems.
method Designs anytime random forest algorithm on step granularity, proposing optimal step order.
result Backward Squirrel Order performs nearly as well as the optimal step order.

We extend the framework of variational autoencoders to represent transformations explicitly in the latent space. In the family of hierarchical graphical models that emerges, the latent space is populated by higher order objects that are inferred jointly with the latent representations they act on. To explicitly demonst…

2019-12-09abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper identifies causal effects in latent variable models using higher-order cumulants.

problem Challenges in identifying causal effects in latent variable models with latent confounders.
method Using higher-order cumulants, the paper addresses two challenging setups: a single proxy variable and underspecified instrumental variables.
result Causal effects are identifiable with a single proxy or instrument.

Paper defends diffusion models from membership inference attacks using Langevin dynamics.

problem Defending diffusion models against membership inference attacks.
method Uses critically-damped higher-order Langevin dynamics with auxiliary variables.
result Demonstrates improved resistance to membership inference attacks through theoretical investigation and validation.

Enhances optimization and sampling methods using ensemble-based gradient inference.

problem Improving ensemble-based methods for optimization and sampling.
method Ensemble-based gradient inference (EGI) to extract higher-order derivatives from particle ensembles.
result Augmented algorithms outperform gradient-free variants, especially in multimodal and non-Gaussian settings.

Algorithm improves reinforcement learning in MDPs with partial order policies.

problem Improving reinforcement learning in MDPs with partial order policies.
method Epoch-based reinforcement learning algorithm leveraging a partial order over policy class.
result Achieves an O(wlog(Θ)T)O(\sqrt{w \log(|Θ|) T}) regret bound, independent of state and action space sizes.

Paper develops methods to optimize policies directly from human feedback without reward inference.

problem Challenges in RLHF, including reward model overfitting and distribution shift.
method Develops two algorithms for RLHF without reward inference, using zeroth-order gradient approximators.
result Establishes polynomial convergence rates and outperforms existing methods in numerical experiments.

Machine-learning (ML) hardware and software system demand is burgeoning. Driven by ML applications, the number of different ML inference systems has exploded. Over 100 organizations are building ML inference chips, and the systems that incorporate existing models span at least three orders of magnitude in power consump…

2019-11-06abs ↗pdf ↗

Develops a flexible deep autoencoding topic model with scalable hybrid Bayesian inference.

problem Flexible and interpretable document analysis models.
method DATM with hybrid Bayesian inference, including topic-layer-adaptive stochastic gradient Riemannian MCMC and Weibull variational encoder.
result Demonstrates scalability and efficacy on big corpora in unsupervised and supervised learning tasks.

A power-law fit to the empirical inference-compute frontier in LOB prediction suggests a scaling-law-style frontier.

problem Limit order book prediction
method Using a suite of models ranging from small decision trees to neural LOB architectures
result A power-law fit to the low- and mid-compute non-MLPLOB frontier extrapolates across multiple orders of magnitude and attains R2=0.941R^2=0.941 on the excluded high-compute MLPLOB target frontier.

We consider higher-order linear-chain conditional random fields (HO-LC-CRFs) for sequence modelling, and use sum-product networks (SPNs) for representing higher-order input- and output-dependent factors. SPNs are a recently introduced class of deep models for which exact and efficient inference can be performed. By com…

2018-07-06abs ↗pdf ↗