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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

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132265397529 · May 202619922001200920172026
48 results for oracle risk bounds

New oracles improve stochastic optimization with noisy or biased measurements.

problem Optimizing functions with noisy or biased measurements.
method Introduced biased gradient oracles for stochastic optimization, analyzed RSG and SGD algorithms with these oracles.
result Derived non-asymptotic bounds for convergence rates of algorithms with biased gradient oracles.

Study on gradient complexity of private optimization with private oracles.

problem Analyzing the efficiency of differentially private optimization algorithms.
method Lower bounds on the number of first-order oracle queries for private optimization.
result Lower bounds on the number of queries for private optimization algorithms, showing a dimension-dependent runtime penalty.

Improved algorithm finds second-order stationary points in non-convex optimization.

problem Minimizing non-convex objectives while preserving training data privacy.
method SpiderBoost framework with two gradient oracles: precise and less precise.
result Improved rates for finding second-order stationary points.

Develops new methods to estimate treatment effects in survival data with competing risks.

problem Estimating treatment effects in survival data with competing risks.
method Censoring Unbiased Transformations (CUTs) for survival outcomes with and without competing risks.
result Consistent estimates of heterogeneous cumulative incidence effects and total effects using HTE learners.

Paper analyzes sparse aggregation in GLMs with Kullback-Leibler risk bounds.

problem Sparse aggregation in GLMs for parameter approximation.
method Exponential weighted aggregation scheme with Kullback-Leibler risk bounds.
result Sharp oracle inequality for Kullback-Leibler risk with leading constant 1 and minimax-optimal rate of aggregation.

We investigate properties of estimators obtained by minimization of U-processes with the Lasso penalty in high-dimensional settings. Our attention is focused on the ranking problem that is popular in machine learning. It is related to guessing the ordering between objects on the basis of their observed predictors. We p…

2015-12-17abs ↗pdf ↗

Propose an XMSE-aware mixed estimator for EB that interpolates between ML and EB shrinkage.

problem Kernel-based EB estimation may be worse than ML when the kernel is poorly aligned with the true parameter.
method An XMSE-aware mixed estimator that interpolates between ML and EB shrinkage.
result Fixed-weight XMSE is a scalar quadratic, yielding a closed-form oracle mixing weight that is no worse than both ML and the base EB estimator at the XMSE scale.

New stability bounds for GD in overparameterised shallow nets without NTK assumptions.

problem Generalisation and excess risk bounds for shallow neural networks.
method Oracle inequalities and stability analysis of GD without kernelisation.
result Oracle type bounds reveal GD's generalisation is controlled by an interpolating network with shortest GD path.

Aggregated hold-out (Agghoo) is a method which averages learning rules selected by hold-out (that is, cross-validation with a single split). We provide the first theoretical guarantees on Agghoo, ensuring that it can be used safely: Agghoo performs at worst like the hold-out when the risk is convex. The same holds true…

2019-09-11abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper analyzes variational autoencoders for state space models with risk bounds.

problem Analyzing the risk associated with variational autoencoders for state space models.
method Backward factorization of variational distributions to analyze excess risk, providing oracle inequalities and upper bounds.
result Explicit upper bounds on variational estimation error for state space models under strong mixing assumptions.

The paper analyzes prediction error in nonstationary settings using weighted risk minimization.

problem Prediction under distribution drift and nonstationary conditions.
method General decomposition of excess risk into learning and drift terms, proving oracle inequalities under mixing conditions.
result Oracle inequalities for the learning error, providing bounds that hold uniformly over arbitrary weight classes.

Two important goals of high-dimensional modeling are prediction and variable selection. In this article, we consider regularization with combined L1L_1 and concave penalties, and study the sampling properties of the global optimum of the suggested method in ultra-high dimensional settings. The L1L_1-penalty provides th…

2016-05-11abs ↗pdf ↗

Study on tradeoffs between mistakes and ERM oracle calls in online and transductive learning.

problem Analyzing online and transductive learning with limited ERM and weak consistency oracle access.
method Proves lower bounds and upper bounds on mistakes and oracle calls, considering realizable and agnostic cases.
result Achieves optimal mistake bounds with weak consistency queries for certain concept classes.

New method improves solving combinatorial optimization problems with smoothed policies.

problem Solving combinatorial optimization problems repeatedly with varying instances.
method Smoothed policies with controlled random perturbations to linear oracle, leading to differentiable surrogate risk.
result Generalization bound decomposes excess risk into bias, estimation, and optimization components.

We presented Bayesian portfolio selection strategy, via the kk factor asset pricing model. If the market is information efficient, the proposed strategy will mimic the market; otherwise, the strategy will outperform the market. The strategy depends on the selection of a portfolio via Bayesian multiple testing methodol…

2017-04-17abs ↗pdf ↗

AGCA approximates angular variation on the unit sphere, reducing extremal dependence problems to eigenanalysis.

problem Approximating angular variation in multivariate extremes.
method Anchored geodesic component analysis (AGCA) approximates angular variation by great subspheres constrained to pass through a chosen reference direction.
result AGCA finds concentrated tail directions in daily equity-portfolio losses, explaining about 91% of anchored variation.

The paper tackles deep learning from dependent data, achieving optimal performance.

problem Deep learning from strongly mixing observations, especially with regularization and optimality.
method Sparse-penalized regularization for deep neural networks, oracle inequality for expected excess risk.
result Deep neural network estimator achieves minimax optimal rate for nonparametric autoregression.

New algorithm reduces sample complexity for multi-distribution learning.

problem Achieving data-efficient multi-distribution learning with robustness and fairness.
method Proposes a novel algorithm with sample complexity (d+k)/varepsilon^2 for Vapnik-Chervonenkis (VC) dimension d, matching lower bounds.
result Algorithm matches best-known lower bound and resolves open problems in COLT 2023.

Quantum method speeds up risk estimation for insurance tail risks.

problem Sample-sparsity in classical Monte Carlo methods for tail risk pricing.
method Quantum Amplitude Estimation (QAE) with Grover amplification.
result Quantum method achieves convergence approaching order reciprocal N, enabling high-resolution tail estimation within practical budgets.

Paper analyzes risk bounds for in-context learning in multiclass classification.

problem Risk bounds for in-context learning in multiclass classification.
method Formalizes tasks as sequences of labeled examples and queries, estimates conditional class probabilities, establishes oracle inequality for KL divergence.
result ICL achieves minimax optimal rate for conditional probability estimation.

The paper tackles fair set-valued classification under demographic parity constraints.

problem Set-valued classification can amplify discriminatory bias, especially in multiclass settings.
method Proposes two strategies: an oracle-based method and a proxy method, both aiming to satisfy demographic parity and expected size constraints.
result Established distribution-free convergence rates and excess-risk bounds for both methods.

In this paper we revisit the risk bounds of the lasso estimator in the context of transductive and semi-supervised learning. In other terms, the setting under consideration is that of regression with random design under partial labeling. The main goal is to obtain user-friendly bounds on the off-sample prediction risk.…

2016-06-20abs ↗pdf ↗

New algorithms reduce reinforcement learning regret in factored MDPs.

problem Optimizing reinforcement learning in non-episodic factored MDPs.
method Proposed two near-optimal and oracle-efficient algorithms for FMDPs.
result Oracle-efficient algorithms achieve near-optimal regret bounds of O(DSAT)O(DS\sqrt{AT}).

Quantum method improves CVaR evaluation under correlated fields.

problem Accurately evaluating CVaR in high-dimensional, correlated material uncertainty.
method Quantum-enhanced inference framework using stabilized IQAE.
result Quantum method achieves lower oracle complexity than classical methods.

LOO prediction method improves generalization guarantees for arbitrary datasets.

problem Understanding LOO error guarantees in fully transductive settings for arbitrary datasets.
method Median of Level-Set Aggregation (MLSA) for empirical-risk level sets.
result Multiplicative oracle inequality for LOO error with complexity scaling.

New method for estimating and optimizing MDPs without stationarity.

problem Challenges in offline contextual MDP estimation without stationarity.
method Introduces a new adaptive estimation and cost optimization approach for contextual MDPs.
result First robust, theoretically backed method for offline contextual MDP estimation.

New algorithm reduces regret bounds for Bayesian optimization with unknown hyperparameters.

problem Optimizing black-box functions with unknown hyperparameters, especially length scale.
method Length Scale Balancing (LB) - aggregating multiple surrogate models with varying length scales.
result LB achieves a regret bound only logaritically away from the oracle algorithm.