Deep learning models predict option prices from 3D tensor data.
problem Predicting option prices for risk management and trading.
method 3D tensor representation of financial data, deep learning models (2D tensors in 3 channels).
result Proposed models outperform traditional methods like B-S model and vector-based LSTM.
HO2 learns options from data efficiently, improving robot manipulation tasks.
problem Learning options from raw pixel inputs in 3D robot manipulation tasks.
method HO2 infers likely option choices and trains all policy components off-policy.
result HO2 outperforms existing methods on 3D robot manipulation tasks.
Paper presents a data-driven method for option pricing.
problem Option pricing accuracy under market volatility.
method Data-driven ensemble approach based on no-arbitrage theory.
result Model performance validated with real data.
Fast probabilistic option price predictions using modular Bayesian inference.
problem Accurate probabilistic predictions of future option prices.
method Modular approximate Bayesian inference framework that combines multiple data sources.
result Accurate probabilistic option-price predictions in realistic scenarios.
Machine learning models outperform traditional option pricing models.
problem Improving option pricing accuracy using complex models.
method Evaluation of machine learning (NN, RF, CatBoost) and traditional models (Black-Scholes, Heston) on synthetic and real data.
result Machine learning models outperform traditional models in predicting option prices.
Data-driven method for option pricing using historical asset prices.
problem Tackling the gap between historical asset prices and risk-neutral option pricing.
method Identifying a pricing kernel process, solving utility maximization and functional optimization problems using deep learning.
result Demonstrated the efficiency of the data-driven option pricing methodology.
KANOP uses KANs to efficiently price American options.
problem Efficiently pricing American options with limited data.
method Combines KANs with LSMC to estimate continuation value.
result KANOP provides more accurate option value estimates.
LLMs translate natural language trading intents into correct option strategies using a domain-specific language.
problem Challenges in translating natural language trading intents into correct option strategies due to the complexity of option chain data.
method Introduce Option Query Language (OQL) as a domain-specific intermediate representation to abstract option markets into high-level primitives under grammatical rules. Use LLMs as semantic parsers and validate queries by an engine.
result Significantly improves execution accuracy and logical consistency over direct baselines.
The paper calibrates SPX and VIX options using optimal transport.
problem Joint calibration of SPX and VIX options or futures.
method Semimartingale optimal transport problem with PDE formulation and dual formulation.
result The model accurately calibrates SPX, VIX options, and futures simultaneously.
Physics-Informed Neural Network improves option pricing accuracy.
problem Improving option pricing accuracy using machine learning.
method Physics-Informed Neural Network (PINN) applied to Black-Scholes equation.
result PINN model accurately captures option pricing behavior on both simulated and real market data.
Calibrates carbon futures option pricing using high-frequency data.
problem Estimating equity and variance risk premia for carbon futures options.
method Multifactor stochastic volatility framework with jumps, employing indirect inference.
result Provides insights into carbon futures and option dynamics.
This paper compares machine learning models for pricing European options.
problem Pricing European options using traditional methods like Black Scholes Model.
method Google AutoML Regressor, TensorFlow Neural Networks, and XGBoost Gradient Boosting Decision Trees.
result All models outperformed the Black Scholes Model in terms of mean absolute error.
Based on empirical market data, a stochastic volatility model is proposed with volatility driven by fractional noise. The model is used to obtain a risk-neutrality option pricing formula and an option pricing equation.
Deep learning models price options using volatility surfaces.
problem Pricing exotic options with high accuracy and efficiency.
method Variational autoencoder for volatility surface compression, multilayer perceptron for option pricing.
result Trained model achieves high accuracy across American and Asian options.
In this paper, we focus on option pricing models based on space-time fractional diffusion. We briefly revise recent results which show that the option price can be represented in the terms of rapidly converging double-series and apply these results to the data from real markets. We focus on estimation of model paramete…
The study compares on-chain option prices with a model and finds significant differences.
problem Measuring and comparing on-chain option prices with a model-based benchmark.
method Used a two-regime MS-AR-(GJR)-GARCH model to estimate volatility and GLS to compare prices.
result On-chain option prices are significantly higher than model-based benchmarks, especially for call options.
New framework allows selective removal of stale data in option calibration.
problem Inability to remove old data from calibrated option pricing models without full retraining.
method Introduces operator-theoretic Gauss-Newton framework for selective forgetting.
result Provides stability guarantees and perturbation bounds for selective data removal.
Paper presents a novel nonparametric method to price Asian options.
problem Difficulty in pricing Asian options, especially with arithmetic average price.
method Nonparametric Predictive Inference (NPI) for Asian option pricing.
result NPI method provides a more precise and uncertain prediction of future asset prices.
Neural network learns to solve Black-Scholes for stock options.
problem Stock option pricing using the Black-Scholes Equation.
method Neural Networks applied to solve the Black-Scholes Equation.
result Neural network can accurately forecast stock option prices.
Deep learning models predict S&P500 option hedge ratios.
problem Optimizing hedging strategies for S&P500 index options.
method Feedforward neural network with time to maturity, delta, and sentiment variables.
result Deep learning model outperforms traditional hedging methods.
Low-frequency historical data, high-frequency historical data and option data are three major sources, which can be used to forecast the underlying security's volatility. In this paper, we propose two econometric models, which integrate three information sources. In GARCH-Itô-OI model, we assume that the option-implied…
Enhanced volatility forecasting using options data and rough volatility model.
problem Improving realized volatility forecasting accuracy.
method Infer spot volatility from options data using rough stochastic volatility model, accelerate estimation with deep learning, benchmark against traditional models.
result Augmented HAR-RV-RHeston model outperforms traditional models in daily and long-term forecasting.
Algorithm improves vanilla option pricing accuracy during and before COVID-19.
problem Improving vanilla option pricing accuracy during and before the pandemic.
method Combinational Mutation Strategy of Differential Evolution (CmDE) algorithm for bi-objective optimization.
result Algorithm approximates real market vanilla option prices more accurately than Black-Scholes.
The study finds no evidence of stochastic arbitrage opportunities in S&P 500 index options.
problem Identifying arbitrage opportunities in S&P 500 index options.
method Developed linear and mixed-integer linear programs to compute the maximum option premium.
result No evidence of systematic stochastic arbitrage opportunities in S&P 500 index options.
In this paper an improved Cuckoo Search Algorithm is developed to allow for an efficient and robust calibration of the Heston option pricing model for American options. Calibration of stochastic volatility models like the Heston is significantly harder than classical option pricing models as more parameters have to be …
Improved price bounds for multi-asset derivatives using market option data.
problem Creating robust price bounds for multi-asset derivatives under market-implied dependence.
method Extracting inter-asset dependence information from market option prices and applying modified martingale optimal transport.
result Improved price bounds for multi-asset derivatives, demonstrating relevance and tractability.
Paper presents a machine learning algorithm for hedging ETF options, outperforming static hedging methods.
problem Semi-static hedging of ETF options with transaction costs and varying market conditions.
method Data-driven machine learning algorithm considering transaction costs, automated portfolio management, and PnL attribution analysis.
result The static hedging approach outperforms dynamic hedging methods in terms of profit and loss.
We develop a trinomial tree model for pricing perpetual derivatives and European options.
problem Pricing perpetual derivatives and European options in a market with two risky assets and a perpetual derivative of one of them.
method We introduce a recombining trinomial tree model, consider a market with two risky assets and a perpetual derivative, and use a replicating portfolio to price options and generate relationships between risk-neutral and real-world parameters.
result We develop implied parameter surfaces for real-world parameters in the model using historical data.
Paper cleans option price datasets by removing outliers.
problem Unusual option prices in datasets.
method Statistical techniques to identify and remove outliers.
result Removes option prices violating no arbitrage assumption.
The general and special repo rates are related with the prices of the European call- and American put-options. The evaluation takes into account specific business models of the parties in the repo agreement and the law restrictions. Using the repo-option relation, an alternative to the Black-Scholes method of option pr…
Study finds adding more information to robust option pricing does not improve bounds.
problem Exploring robust pricing of financial claims using minimal assumptions.
method Empirical study of variance options, incorporating intermediate market data.
result Incorporating more information does not improve robust pricing bounds.
Bitcoin option prices reflect both market maker supply and trader demand, especially from those with insider information.
problem Understanding how market prices of bitcoin options are influenced by both market makers and informed traders.
method Analysis of Deribit options tick-level data to identify supply and demand effects.
result At-the-money option prices are driven by volatility traders, while out-of-the-money options are influenced by both volatility traders and those with insider information.
The paper extends option pricing theory for markets with informed traders.
problem Discontinuity in option pricing for markets with informed traders.
method New models for option pricing in complete markets considering informed traders' information on stock price direction and return mean.
result The discontinuity puzzle in option pricing is resolved using continuous diffusion price processes.
Bayesian optimisation framework for multi-objective decision-making from choice data.
problem Optimizing multi-objective functions via choice judgements.
method Gaussian process prior and novel likelihood model for choice data.
result Proposes a novel Bayesian framework for learning latent functions from choice data.
Deep learning improves options trading without market assumptions.
problem Traditional options trading requires market dynamics and pricing models.
method End-to-end deep learning approach that learns from market data.
result Deep learning models outperform existing trading strategies.
The paper develops a neural network model for SPX option pricing.
problem Developing an empirical model for SPX option pricing.
method Formulated and rigorously evaluated several statistical models including neural network, random forest, and linear regression.
result The neural network model outperforms other models and Black-Scholes-Merton model for SPX option pricing.
Building systems that autonomously create temporal abstractions from data is a key challenge in scaling learning and planning in reinforcement learning. One popular approach for addressing this challenge is the options framework (Sutton et al., 1999). However, only recently in (Bacon et al., 2017) was a policy gradient…
The paper uses GRU and self-attention for SPY option pricing.
problem Precise prediction of SPY option prices for better investment decisions.
method Partitioned dataset, built four models, used SHAP for interpretation.
result Self-attention GRU model outperforms traditional models.
Proposes a method to repair arbitrage in option prices data.
problem Arbitrage in option price data can lead to poor performance or failure of financial applications.
method Formulates data repair as a linear programming (LP) problem to minimise price changes within bid and ask price bounds.
result The proposed method gives sparse perturbations on data and improves model calibration with enhanced robustness and reduced calibration error.
There are several (mathematical) reasons why Dupire's formula fails in the non-diffusion setting. And yet, in practice, ad-hoc preconditioning of the option data works reasonably well. In this note we attempt to explain why. In particular, we propose a regularization procedure of the option data so that Dupire's local …
The study examines European option pricing using a generalized tempered stable distribution.
problem Investigating the pricing of European options under a generalized tempered stable distribution.
method Fitting the Generalized Tempered Stable (GTS) distribution to S\&P 500 Index returns, applying the Esscher transform, and using the Extended Black-Scholes and Generalized Black-Scholes formulas.
result The GTS distribution yields consistent European option prices for deep OTM and ITM options, but underprices near-the-money and in-the-money options compared to the Black-Scholes model.
Continuous time models in the theory of real options give explicit formulas for optimal exercise strategies when options are simple and the price of an underlying asset follows a geometric Brownian motion. This paper suggests a general, computationally simple approach to real options in discrete time. Explicit formulas…
A hybrid framework uses machine learning to price options faster and more accurately.
problem Rapid recalibration of option pricing models in dynamic markets.
method Integrates smooth offset algorithm with supervised machine learning models.
result Surrogate pricing operators achieve up to 1000x speedup over direct SOA evaluation.
New method forecasts stock option prices accurately.
problem Accurate forecasting of stock option prices.
method Solving the ill-posed Black-Scholes equation using the Quasi-Reversibility Method.
result Good forecasting results demonstrated on market data.
Neural models price financial options without assuming underlying price forms.
problem Pricing financial options under flexible price processes.
method Apply neural SDEs as universal approximators, use Wasserstein distance for training.
result Error in option prices bounded by Wasserstein distance used for training.
In this paper a simple model for the evolution of the forward density of the future value of an asset is proposed. The model allows for a straightforward initial calibration to option prices and has dynamics that are consistent with empirical findings from option price data. The model is constructed with the aim of bei…
The paper analyzes a five-parameter Variance-Gamma model for European option pricing.
problem Developing a stochastic volatility model for accurate European option pricing.
method Introduced a five-parameter Variance-Gamma model and applied it to empirical data.
result The five-parameter VG model produces underpriced OTM and overpriced ITM options compared to the Black-Scholes model.
Extracting the risk neutral density (RND) function from option prices is well defined in principle, but is very sensitive to errors in practice. For risk management, knowledge of the entire RND provides more information for Value-at-Risk (VaR) calculations than implied volatility alone [1]. Typically, RNDs are deduced …