A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Proposes a method to construct risk-neutral marginals from arbitrage-free option prices.
Study reveals a hidden cost in derivatives markets through option-implied discount factors.
Low-frequency historical data, high-frequency historical data and option data are three major sources, which can be used to forecast the underlying security's volatility. In this paper, we propose two econometric models, which integrate three information sources. In GARCH-Itô-OI model, we assume that the option-implied…
This paper provides a neural approach to represent option implied information.
iCOS method estimates risk-neutral densities and option prices without model assumptions.
Prediction markets and crypto options show persistent pricing gaps.
Currency volatility shocks predict lower excess returns, and buying weak transmitters outperforms selling strong ones.
Investigates portfolio selection with transaction costs and stochastic volatility, using deep learning for computation.
Study uses sentiment analysis to predict implied volatility surface, improving prediction accuracy.
New FX option interpolations impact implied volatilities.
Paper defines conditions for feasible correlation matrices from factor structures.
The paper assesses how equity tail risk impacts US Treasury bond returns.
Improved bounds for multi-asset options using deep learning and market prices.
Unified framework matches equity and bond yields.
In this paper we study the continuum time dynamics of a stock in a market where agents behavior is modeled by a Minority Game and a Grand Canonical Minority Game. The dynamics derived is a generalized geometric Brownian motion; from the Black & Scholes formula the calibration of both the Minority Game and the Grand Can…
Machine learning reveals inventory effects on VSTOXX futures pricing.
This study compares SPX and VIX options and quantifies their relationship.
The paper develops bounds for multi-asset derivatives using option prices.
We create precise formulas for VIX option implied volatility.
We derive a general multivariate theory for realised characteristics of `model-free discretisation-invariant swaps', so-called because the standard no-arbitrage assumption of martingale forward prices is sufficient to derive fair-value swap rates for such characteristics which have no jump or discretisation errors. Thi…
New machine learning model identifies key drivers of market troughs.
Proposes deep hedging for index options using implied volatility surface.
Study shows physical drift affects put-call parity enforcement, not just option payoffs.
This paper investigates how the conditional quantiles of future returns and volatility of financial assets vary with various measures of ex-post variation in asset prices as well as option-implied volatility. We work in the flexible quantile regression framework and rely on recently developed model-free measures of int…
In this study we suggest a portfolio selection framework based on option-implied information and multivariate non-Gaussian models. The proposed models incorporate skewness, kurtosis and more complex dependence structures among stocks log-returns than the simple correlation matrix. The two models considered are a multiv…
This paper investigates how realized and option implied volatilities are related to the future quantiles of commodity returns. Whereas realized volatility measures ex-post uncertainty, volatility implied by option prices reveals the market's expectation and is often used as an ex-ante measure of the investor sentiment.…
A new modelling approach that directly prescribes dynamics to the term structure of VIX futures is proposed in this paper. The approach is motivated by the tractability enjoyed by models that directly prescribe dynamics to the VIX, practices observed in interest-rate modelling, and the desire to develop a platform to b…
This paper improves VAE-based imputation of FX implied volatilities, reducing errors and handling uncertainty.
A new method detects and corrects outliers using optimal transport.
Machine learning approximates implied volatility and dividend yield for American options.
Recent research has used margin theory to analyze the generalization performance for deep neural networks (DNNs). The existed results are almost based on the spectrally-normalized minimum margin. However, optimizing the minimum margin ignores a mass of information about the entire margin distribution, which is crucial …
The paper defines marginal tubes and proves their null nature.
Traditional sentiment construction in finance relies heavily on the dictionary-based approach, with a few exceptions using simple machine learning techniques such as Naive Bayes classifier. While the current literature has not yet invoked the rapid advancement in the natural language processing, we construct in this re…
Margin system for margin loans using cash and stock as collateral is considered in this paper, which is the line of defence for brokers against risk associated with margin trading. The conditional probability of negative return is used as risk measure, and a recursive algorithm is proposed to realize this measure under…
An active margin system for margin loans is proposed for Chinese margin lending market, which uses cash and randomly selected stock as collateral. The conditional probability of negative return(CPNR) after a forced sale of securities from under-margined account in a falling market is used to measure the risk faced by t…
In order to protect brokers from customer defaults in a volatile market, an active margin system is proposed for the transactions of margin lending in China. The probability of negative return under the condition that collaterals are liquidated in a falling market is used to measure the risk associated with margin loan…
Random projections have been applied in many machine learning algorithms. However, whether margin is preserved after random projection is non-trivial and not well studied. In this paper we analyse margin distortion after random projection, and give the conditions of margin preservation for binary classification problem…
Paper introduces negative margin loss for better few-shot classification accuracy.
Margin enlargement over training data has been an important strategy since perceptrons in machine learning for the purpose of boosting the robustness of classifiers toward a good generalization ability. Yet Breiman (1999) showed a dilemma that a uniform improvement on margin distribution does NOT necessarily reduces ge…
Boosting and other ensemble methods combine a large number of weak classifiers through weighted voting to produce stronger predictive models. To explain the successful performance of boosting algorithms, Schapire et al. (1998) showed that AdaBoost is especially effective at increasing the margins of the training data. …
Proposes a new distance metric for multi-marginal optimal transport.
The marginal maximum a posteriori probability (MAP) estimation problem, which calculates the mode of the marginal posterior distribution of a subset of variables with the remaining variables marginalized, is an important inference problem in many models, such as those with hidden variables or uncertain parameters. Unfo…
We investigate the geometric properties of marginally trapped surfaces (surfaces which have null mean curvature vector) in the spaces of oriented geodesics of Euclidean 3-space and hyperbolic 3-space, endowed with their canonical neutral Kaehler structures. We prove that every rank one surface in these four manifolds i…
We study adversarial robustness of neural networks from a margin maximization perspective, where margins are defined as the distances from inputs to a classifier's decision boundary. Our study shows that maximizing margins can be achieved by minimizing the adversarial loss on the decision boundary at the "shortest succ…
The paper improves SVM margin-based generalization bounds.
Near-Exponential Convergence Rates for kNN Classification
Proposes MFSWB for marginal fairness in SWB, improving efficiency and performance.
For linear classifiers, the relationship between (normalized) output margin and generalization is captured in a clear and simple bound -- a large output margin implies good generalization. Unfortunately, for deep models, this relationship is less clear: existing analyses of the output margin give complicated bounds whi…