Defines certainty equivalent and utility indifference pricing for incomplete preferences.
problem Incomplete preferences represented by multiple priors and utility functions.
method Defines certainty equivalent and utility buy/sell prices as set-valued functions of claims, proves monotonicity and convexity properties, approximates bounds via convex vector optimization.
result Certainty equivalent and indifference price bounds can be computed or approximated by convex vector optimization.
Overview of risk-sensitive Markov decision processes with Optimized Certainty Equivalent.
problem Optimizing decision-making under risk in Markov processes.
method Analyzes risk-sensitive criteria using Optimized Certainty Equivalent, including entropic risk and Conditional Value-at-Risk.
result Conditions for the existence of optimal policies and solution procedures are provided.
Solves Merton's investment-consumption problem with certainty equivalent approach.
problem Maximizing CRRA utility of consumption over time and investment mix.
method Identifies a certainty equivalent problem for the Merton problem, reformulates it as an SOCP, and applies it to model predictive control.
result The certainty equivalent problem can be solved as an SOCP, facilitating model predictive control.
Certainty equivalent controllers perform nearly optimally in LQ control problems with unknown dynamics.
problem Optimizing control in systems with unknown transition dynamics.
method Analysis of certainty equivalent controllers and comparison to optimal LQ controllers, using perturbation bounds for discrete Riccati equations.
result Sub-optimality gap scales as the square of the parameter error, improving upon previous results.
The paper develops a new approach to conditional risk measures using modular convex analysis.
problem Developing a new method for conditional risk measures.
method Random modular approach to conditional certainty equivalents and niveloids in the conditional L ∞ L^{\infty} L ∞ -space. result Retrieves a conditional variational formula for optimized certainty equivalents and applies it to the conditional entropic risk measure.
Study shows certainty equivalent policy minimizes regret in continuous-time systems.
problem Minimizing regret in continuous-time stochastic linear-quadratic systems.
method Theoretical analysis of randomized certainty equivalent policy.
result Establishes square-root of time regret bounds and linear scaling with parameters.
Study on implied certainty equivalent rates in financial markets and electric vehicles.
problem Investment risk in financial markets.
method Mathematical derivation of implied certainty equivalent rate, empirical analysis of stock and option data.
result Positive implied certainty equivalent rates are more suitable for investment than negative ones, but higher values increase risk.
The paper analyzes risk estimation methods and derives bounds for OCE risk.
problem Estimating the Optimized Certainty Equivalent (OCE) risk from samples.
method Derives mean-squared error and concentration bounds for SAA of OCE, and analyzes an efficient stochastic approximation-based estimator.
result Finite sample bounds and mis-identification probability bounds for the efficient estimator.
Introduces new performance measures using scaled utility functions.
problem Performance measurement in financial contexts.
method Certainty equivalents defined via scaled utility functions, well-posed portfolio optimization problem under generic conditions.
result Link between portfolio dynamics, benchmark process, and utility function choice in the long-run setting.
Study high-frequency trading with fractional Brownian motion, finding optimal strategies and convergence.
problem Maximizing utility in high-frequency trading with fractional Brownian motion.
method Spectral methods for stationary Gaussian sequences, asymptotic growth rate analysis, finite-dimensional distribution convergence.
result Suitably rescaled optimal positions converge to a Gaussian white-noise-type field.
CEFOL uses deep learning for dynamic programming with recursive utility.
problem Challenges in solving dynamic programming problems with recursive utility.
method Introduces a separate neural network for certainty equivalent, uses first-order optimality conditions to learn value and policy functions.
result CEFOL achieves high accuracy in learning value and policy functions, matching VFI benchmarks.
Study risk-sensitive market making with entropy regularization for better quote control.
problem Risk-sensitive market making with exponential utility and penalties.
method Entropy-regularized certainty-equivalent Bellman policies for discrete-time market dynamics.
result Proves convergence and performance bounds for entropy-regularized policies.
Study scaling limits for option pricing in trinomial models.
problem Analyzing exponential hedging in trinomial models converging to Black-Scholes.
method Purely probabilistic approach using duality, martingale, and weak-convergence techniques.
result Derives a scaling limit for exponential certainty-equivalent prices in trinomial models.
We consider the class of risk measures associated with optimized certainty equivalents. This class includes several popular examples, such as CV@R and monotone mean-variance. Numerical schemes are developed for the computation of these risk measures using Fourier transform methods. This leads, in particular, to a very …
Study risk-sensitive reinforcement learning with optimized certainty equivalents.
problem Risk-sensitive reinforcement learning in finite discounted MDPs.
method Analyzed a simple model-based approach and derived PAC sample complexity bounds.
result Established tight sample complexity bounds for value and policy learning.
New multivariate risk measures improve on univariate OCE methods.
problem Improving risk assessment in multivariate settings.
method Inspired by univariate OCE, introduces convex, monotonic, cash-invariant measures.
result Numerical algorithms provide error estimates for computations.
New method optimizes individualized decision rules for precision medicine.
problem Heterogeneous patient responses to treatments.
method Proposes a decision-rule based optimized covariates dependent equivalent (CDE) for individualized decision making.
result Numerical experiments show improved performance in estimating optimal IDRs.
Study optimal investment decisions for diverse risk-tolerant agents.
problem Optimizing investment choices for agents with varying risk preferences.
method Characterizes optimal behavior using certainty equivalents and lognormal risks.
result Derives optimal decision menus under known and uncertain preference distributions.
Study optimal risk sharing in expanding pools, accounting for uncertainty.
problem Optimal risk sharing in expanding pools of cooperative agents.
method Analyzes asymptotic behavior of certainty equivalents and risk premia, considering ambiguity and uncertainty about probabilistic models.
result Explicit results on limits and rates of convergence of robust certainty equivalents and risk premia in expanding pools.
The paper develops robust risk measures for uncertain loss positions.
problem Risk assessment for loss positions with uncertain distributions.
method Robust optimized certainty equivalents and generalized quantiles are proposed and analyzed.
result Robust expectiles with specific penalization functions are coherent risk measures.
Method solves dynamic portfolio optimization with liquidity costs and market impacts.
problem Dynamic portfolio optimization with liquidity costs and market impacts.
method Simulation-and-regression approach extending least squares Monte Carlo algorithm.
result Validated method with realistic cash-and-stock portfolio, quantifying certainty equivalent losses.
Deep learning solves dynamic programming with recursive utility.
problem Challenges in solving high-dimensional discrete-time dynamic programming problems with recursive utility.
method Certainty Equivalent Learning (CEL) algorithm that learns certainty-equivalent value directly with neural networks.
result Accurate value and policy approximations in high-dimensional problems, comparable to VFI in some cases.
The paper analyzes optimal timing to sell assets under different price dynamics and utility functions.
problem Optimal timing to sell risky assets under different price dynamics and risk preferences.
method Two stochastic models (trending and mean-reverting) and three utility functions (exponential, power, log) are considered to derive optimal thresholds and certainty equivalents.
result The timing option can make the investor's value function and certainty equivalent non-concave in price.
Optimal control strategy uses random noise to adaptively control systems with unknown parameters.
problem Online adaptive control of linear quadratic regulator with unknown system parameters.
method Certainty equivalent control with exploratory random noise, refined estimates of system matrices.
result Achieves optimal regret scaling as Θ(√(d_u^2 d_x T)) with self-bounding ODE method.
New method for dynamic valuation in markets with random endowments.
problem Dynamic valuation in markets with random endowments.
method Developed new FBSDE systems and established optimality conditions.
result Established necessary and sufficient conditions for optimality.
Proposes a new method to rank risky investments based on Omega measure.
problem Evaluating and ranking risky investment projects.
method Introduces an investment certainty equivalence approach and uses the Omega measure.
result Proposed method ranks projects differently from conventional risk-adjusted discount rate (RADR) approach.
Paper develops a new framework for analyzing certainty equivalents and dynamic risk premia using Malliavin calculus and Wiener chaos analysis.
problem Limitations of Arrow-Pratt approximation for arbitrary sequences of vanishing risks.
method Develops a new framework based on Malliavin calculus and Wiener chaos analysis, combining Itô calculus, the Clark--Ocone representation, and the Wiener chaos decomposition.
result Establishes a unified framework linking expected utility theory, stochastic analysis, and Wiener chaos expansions, revealing higher-order certainty equivalents and dynamic risk premia.
New risk measures for multivariate data, consistent and decomposable.
problem Developing consistent risk measures for multiple variables.
method Showed strong consistency leads to decomposition into aggregation and univariate risk.
result Multivariate risk measures are conditional certainty equivalents under strong consistency.
Study overcomes infinite optimization problems for robust risk measures and option pricing.
problem Model uncertainty in risk management and option pricing leads to intractable infinite dimensional optimization problems.
method Focuses on nonlinear expectations penalizing far distributions from a baseline, reducing robust OCE to finite dimensional problems.
result The robust OCE can be computed explicitly for certain cases, and convex dual representations derived for measurable claims.
This paper shows CEM is a special case of TTM, leading to new proofs and improved sample complexity bounds.
problem Improving sample complexity for reinforcement learning algorithms.
method Viewing CEM as an application of TTM, deriving new proofs and bounds.
result Improved sample complexity bounds for CEM under various conditions.
Submodularity is studied for convex risk measures, including Expected Shortfall.
problem Characterizing submodularity in convex risk measures.
method Analyzing submodularity properties of law-invariant coherent risk measures, including Expected Shortfall and Value-at-Risk.
result AES is submodular only when it reduces to ES, and empirical analysis shows AES violations are less frequent than VaR and ES violations.
New bounds for adaptive control in high dimensions without fixed state space.
problem Adaptive control of linear systems in high or infinite dimensions.
method Novel perturbation bound for certainty equivalence, scaling with prediction error.
result First regret bounds for LQR in infinite dimensional systems, independent of ambient dimension.
This work addresses time inconsistency in risk measures and develops a dynamic programming principle for risk minimization problems.
problem Time inconsistency in optimized certainty equivalents (OCEs) risk measures.
method Enlargement of state space to achieve a substitute for time consistency, derivation of dynamic programming principle.
result Characterization of the value function via viscosity solutions of Hamilton--Jacobi--Bellman--Issacs equations.
This work uses a scalable approach to identify partially observed nonlinear systems.
problem Offline identification of partially observed nonlinear systems.
method Certainty-equivalent expectation-maximization (CEEM) as block coordinate-ascent.
result The CEEM approach can identify high-dimensional systems reliably and efficiently.
In this work we consider optimal stopping problems with conditional convex risk measures called optimised certainty equivalents. Without assuming any kind of time-consistency for the underlying family of risk measures, we derive a novel representation for the solution of the optimal stopping problem. In particular, we …
New findings reveal discount regularization can be seen as a strong prior, leading to poor performance in unevenly sampled data.
problem Discount regularization leads to poor performance in unevenly sampled data.
method Equivalence theorem showing discount regularization as a strong prior, setting regularization parameters locally for individual state-action pairs.
result Discount regularization can be seen as a strong prior, leading to poor performance in unevenly sampled data.
Investment and pricing in assets that can default, with optimal strategies computed.
problem Optimal investment and pricing in assets that can default.
method Factor model with time-homogenous diffusion, semi-linear PDE, dual optimal measure.
result Computed indifference prices and dynamic protection against default.
Scores measure certainty and doubt in classification predictions.
problem Quantitative uncertainty assessment in classification problems.
method Intuitive scores in Bayesian and frequentist frameworks.
result Measures assess and compare prediction quality and uncertainty.
Investors optimize equity and CDS trading to mitigate default risk.
problem Optimizing investment in equity and CDS markets to manage default risk.
method Semi-linear PDE for certainty equivalent, proving existence and optimality of policies.
result Optimal CDS policies cover both equity and future trading losses, increasing investor utility.
This paper tackles adaptive control of unknown Markov jump systems with sample complexity and regret bounds.
problem Adaptive control of unknown Markov jump systems with changing dynamics.
method Identification-based adaptive control using a system identification algorithm and certainty equivalent control.
result The proposed adaptive control scheme achieves O ( T ) \mathcal{O}(\sqrt{T}) O ( T ) regret, improving to O ( p o l y l o g ( T ) ) \mathcal{O}(polylog(T)) O ( p o l y l o g ( T )) with partial knowledge. This paper introduces new risk measures for evaluating losses with varying time horizons.
problem Capturing horizon risk and cash non-additivity in risk evaluation.
method Uses BSDEs and shortfall approaches to develop h-generalized shortfall risk measures.
result Introduces hq-entropic risk measures as a new family of fully-dynamic risk measures.
We propose directed time series regression, a new approach to estimating parameters of time-series models for use in certainty equivalent model predictive control. The approach combines merits of least squares regression and empirical optimization. Through a computational study involving a stochastic version of a well …
A framework for cost of belief revision in uncertain agents.
problem Cost of revising beliefs in uncertain agents.
method Axiomatic framework for transport-based belief costs, postulates P0 and P1.
result Cost metric is conformally reweighted by Fisher information, leading to a cost floor diverging at certainty.
The paper studies risk-sensitive learning schemes and provides learning bounds for empirical OCE minimizers.
problem Risk-sensitive learning aims to minimize risk-averse measures of loss.
method Proposes learning bounds for empirical OCE minimizers based on Rademacher average and variance.
result Provides two learning bounds on the performance of empirical OCE minimizers.
This paper tackles over-certainty in test-time adaptation models, proposing a solution to improve calibration.
problem Over-certainty in predictions caused by domain shifts, leading to misplaced trust.
method Introduces a certainty regularizer that dynamically adjusts pseudo-label confidence based on backbone entropy and logit norm.
result Achieves state-of-the-art performance in terms of Expected Calibration Error and Negative Log Likelihood, while maintaining accuracy.
We consider a model in which a trader aims to maximize expected risk-adjusted profit while trading a single security. In our model, each price change is a linear combination of observed factors, impact resulting from the trader's current and prior activity, and unpredictable random effects. The trader must learn coeffi…
We consider a multi-stock continuous time incomplete market model with random coefficients. We study the investment problem in the class of strategies which do not use direct observations of the appreciation rates of the stocks, but rather use historical stock prices and an a priory given distribution of the appreciati…
Investment strategy optimizes risk using a specific risk measure.
problem Optimizing investment with risk controlled by a weighted entropic risk measure.
method Investigation of expected utility maximization and risk minimization problems with solutions provided iteratively.
result Explicit characterization of solutions to optimization problems.