A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
We propose a clustering-based iterative algorithm to solve certain optimization problems in machine learning, where we start the algorithm by aggregating the original data, solving the problem on aggregated data, and then in subsequent steps gradually disaggregate the aggregated data. We apply the algorithm to common m…
We consider the forecast aggregation problem in repeated settings, where the forecasts are done on a binary event. At each period multiple experts provide forecasts about an event. The goal of the aggregator is to aggregate those forecasts into a subjective accurate forecast. We assume that experts are Bayesian; namely…
Given a finite family of functions, the goal of model selection aggregation is to construct a procedure that mimics the function from this family that is the closest to an unknown regression function. More precisely, we consider a general regression model with fixed design and measure the distance between functions by …
In this paper, we consider the problem of "hyper-sparse aggregation". Namely, given a dictionary F={f1,...,fM} of functions, we look for an optimal aggregation algorithm that writes f~=∑j=1Mθjfj with as many zero coefficients θj as possible. This problem is of particular interest when…
We introduce a new recursive aggregation procedure called Bernstein Online Aggregation (BOA). The exponential weights include an accuracy term and a second order term that is a proxy of the quadratic variation as in Hazan and Kale (2010). This second term stabilizes the procedure that is optimal in different senses. We…
Let $\cF$ be a set of M classification procedures with values in [−1,1]. Given a loss function, we want to construct a procedure which mimics at the best possible rate the best procedure in $\cF$. This fastest rate is called optimal rate of aggregation. Considering a continuous scale of loss functions with various …
We address the problem of aggregating an ensemble of predictors with known loss bounds in a semi-supervised binary classification setting, to minimize prediction loss incurred on the unlabeled data. We find the minimax optimal predictions for a very general class of loss functions including all convex and many non-conv…
Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) have shown very powerful for graph data representation and learning tasks. Existing GCNs usually conduct feature aggregation on a fixed neighborhood graph in which each node computes its representation by aggregating the feature representations of all its neighbors which is biased by…
The article is devoted to investigating the application of aggregating algorithms to the problem of the long-term forecasting. We examine the classic aggregating algorithms based on the exponential reweighing. For the general Vovk's aggregating algorithm we provide its generalization for the long-term forecasting. For …
Calibrated models can lead to miscalibrated aggregations in strategic interactions.
problem Miscalibration in aggregated predictions from multiple calibrated models.
method Analysis of strategic interactions between calibrated predictors, proving conditions for miscalibration and comparing VCG and Brier-score aggregation methods.
result VCG aggregation method outperforms Brier-score in strategic settings, providing robustness and comparable accuracy.
Optimal Transport Graph Neural Networks (OT-GNN) improves graph embeddings by using optimal transport.
problem Graph Neural Networks (GNN) often lose structural or semantic information when aggregating node embeddings.
method Combines optimal transport (OT) with parametric graph models to compute graph embeddings from Wasserstein distances between node embeddings and prototype point clouds.
result OT-GNN outperforms popular methods on molecular property prediction tasks and produces smoother graph representations.
Most real-world problems have huge state and/or action spaces. Therefore, a naive application of existing tabular solution methods is not tractable on such problems. Nonetheless, these solution methods are quite useful if an agent has access to a relatively small state-action space homomorphism of the true environment …
Estimating statistical uncertainties allows autonomous agents to communicate their confidence during task execution and is important for applications in safety-critical domains such as autonomous driving. In this work, we present the uncertainty-aware imitation learning (UAIL) algorithm for improving end-to-end control…