Bayesian optimization stops when a solution is within ε of the optimum with high probability.
problem Stopping Bayesian optimization prematurely based on a probabilistic criterion.
method Introducing a (ε,δ)-criterion for stopping Bayesian optimization. result Bayesian optimization satisfies the (ε,δ)-criterion under mild assumptions. This work improves Bayesian Optimization for setting DNN hyper-parameters.
problem Manual setting of DNN hyper-parameters is error-prone and computationally expensive.
method Combines Bayesian Optimization with tuning rules to reduce search space and improve accuracy.
result Improves efficiency and accuracy of hyper-parameter tuning for deep neural networks.
Bayesian learning rule unifies and generalizes various machine learning algorithms.
problem Machine learning algorithms are diverse and not always understood.
method Bayesian principles and natural gradients are used to derive algorithms.
result Derives a wide range of algorithms including classical and modern ones.
Bayesian method decomposes ITR value into direct and indirect effects.
problem Assessing how clinical benefit of an ITR is generated.
method Causal mediation framework using nested potential outcomes and Bayesian causal mediation forests.
result Identification and estimation of natural direct and indirect effects.
A new stopping rule based on E-values helps efficiently use sampling in Bayesian Deep Ensembles.
problem How long should sampling continue in Bayesian Deep Ensembles to yield significant improvements?
method Formulated as a sequential anytime-valid hypothesis test, using E-values to decide when to stop sampling.
result Only a fraction of the full-chain budget is often required for significant improvements.
Bayesian learning rule trains binary neural networks effectively.
problem Training binary neural networks is challenging due to discrete optimization.
method Proposes the Bayesian learning rule to estimate Bernoulli weights.
result Obtains state-of-the-art performance and enables uncertainty estimation.
Paper introduces Bayesian EEF for model order selection using exponentially embedded family.
problem Model order selection in Bayesian statistics.
method Bayesian EEF method using exponentially embedded family.
result Bayesian EEF can use vague priors and reveals EEF mechanism for model selection.
Enhances Bayesian learning with rule-based evolutionary techniques.
problem Improving Bayesian inference with expert knowledge and data patterns.
method Combines Bayesian inference with rule-based systems and grammatical evolution.
result Automatically derives rules from data, improving point predictions and uncertainty quantification.
New pruning rules reduce search space for Bayesian network learning.
problem Learning Bayesian networks efficiently with BIC score.
method Entropy-based pruning rules to reduce candidate parent sets.
result Significant gains in structure learning with low computational cost.
HRTPP improves TPP interpretability and accuracy in medical event modeling.
problem Lack of interpretability in TPPs for medical event sequences.
method Hybrid-Rule Temporal Point Processes (HRTPP) integrating temporal logic rules and numerical features.
result HRTPP outperforms state-of-the-art interpretable TPPs in predictive performance and clinical interpretability.
PVI seeks a posterior that makes predictions closer to true data, not approximating the Bayesian posterior.
problem Finding meaningful posterior distributions under model misspecification.
method Predictive variational inference (PVI) seeks an optimal posterior density for close predictive matching to true data.
result PVI learns a posterior that is not the same as the Bayesian posterior, but is closer to the true data generating process.
New tuning rules for Metropolis algorithms derived from Bayesian large-sample asymptotics.
problem Optimal scaling in random-walk Metropolis algorithms under realistic assumptions.
method Large-sample asymptotics to derive weak convergence results and tuning guidelines.
result Tuning guidelines consistent with previous ones when target density is product form, accounting for correlation structure.
Bayesian neural networks are shown to be minimax and admissible under certain conditions.
problem Optimality of Bayesian neural networks in deep learning models.
method Analysis of decision rules induced by BNNs in the normal location model under quadratic loss.
result A hyperprior on the effective output variance yields a minimax and admissible decision rule.
Proposes an alternative method to train RBMs with binary synapses using Bayesian learning rule.
problem Training RBMs with binary synapses is challenging due to discrete nature of synapses.
method Proposes an alternative optimization method using the Bayesian learning rule, updating natural parameters instead of expectation parameters.
result No additional clipping is needed as natural parameters take values in the entire real domain.
This paper solves aggregation of Pareto optimal models by using Bayesian priors and weighted averaging.
problem How to rationally aggregate Pareto optimal models while preserving Pareto efficiency.
method Four logical steps: 1) Bayesian models, 2) Prior as preference ranking, 3) Consistent aggregation, 4) Weighted average of priors.
result All rational/consistent aggregation rules follow a generalized hierarchical Bayesian model.
RSI uses Bayesian inference to monitor compliance in rule-governed domains.
problem Structural obstacles in compliance monitoring, including unlabeled outcomes and selective withholding of evidence.
method Rule-State Inference (RSI) treats formalized rules as Bayesian priors and infers compliance states through mean-field variational inference.
result RSI delivers formal guarantees of adaptability, consistency, and convergence, validated on a synthetic enterprise benchmark.
Bayesian optimization uses acquisition functions to find optimal solutions efficiently.
problem Maximizing acquisition functions is difficult due to their complexity and non-convexity.
method Developed gradient-based optimization for Monte Carlo integration of acquisition functions and identified families of acquisition functions that can be maximized using greedy approaches.
result Greedy approaches can be used to maximize acquisition functions, making Bayesian optimization more practical.
Bayesian RL tackles uncertainty with deep generative models and sequential samplers.
problem Optimal decision-making in uncertain environments with limited data.
method Bayesian approach using deep generative models and prequential scoring rule for posterior inference. Policy learning via expected Thompson sampling.
result Improves policy learning in high-dimensional parameter spaces and continuous action spaces.
This paper develops a mathematical and computational framework for analyzing the expected performance of Bayesian data fusion, or joint statistical inference, within a sensor network. We use variational techniques to obtain the posterior expectation as the optimal fusion rule under a deterministic constraint and a quad…
New decision-theoretic characterization separates belief and decision posteriors.
problem Understanding the conditions under which loss-based updating coincides with Bayesian updating.
method Decision-theoretic approach to distinguish belief and decision posteriors.
result Generalized Bayes coincides with ordinary Bayesian updating only if the loss is proportional to negative log-likelihood.
Fuzzy Bayesian Learning uses model evidence to choose best rule base.
problem Selecting the best fuzzy rule base among alternatives.
method Calculates marginal likelihood to compare models.
result Marginal likelihood provides a better model selection than MSE.
Improved Bayesian learning rule handles positive-definite constraints efficiently.
problem Bayesian learning rule struggles with positive-definite constraints.
method Proposes an improved rule using Riemannian gradient methods for block-coordinate natural parameterization.
result Outperforms existing methods without increased computation.
BALSON optimizes parameters with Bayesian approach and Dirichlet distribution.
problem Data fitting with nonnegative L1-norm constraints.
method Bayesian approach, Gaussian likelihood, Dirichlet distribution, sampling methods.
result BALSON outperforms conventional methods in polynomial fitting.
Paper proves LCVB method's consistency in Bayesian posteriors and decision rules.
problem Approximating Bayesian posteriors and decision rules.
method Loss-calibrated variational Bayes (LCVB) method.
result LCVB method's consistency in both approximate posterior and decision rules.
Proposes a probabilistic optimization method for large-scale problems.
problem Large-scale regularized optimization problems.
method Develops a probabilistic interpretation of the incremental proximal gradient algorithm and uses Bayesian filtering.
result Makes it possible to solve large-scale problems using well-known Bayesian filters.
The paper analyzes kernel-based quadrature in misspecified settings, providing convergence rates and robustness conditions.
problem Analyzing kernel-based quadrature in settings where the test integrand is less smooth than the RKHS.
method Convergence analysis based on two assumptions: constant weights or minimum distance between design points.
result Derives convergence rates and conditions for robustness in Bayesian quadrature under misspecification.
Introduces a rule-based Bayesian regression for better uncertainty quantification and expert knowledge integration.
problem Handling regression problems with uncertainty quantification and expert intuition.
method Combines Bayesian inference and rule-based systems for better model performance.
result Improves model performance with better uncertainty quantification and point predictions.
A new classification method using class-specific features for improved text categorization.
problem Improving text categorization accuracy by leveraging class-specific features.
method EEF classifier based on class-specific features and optimal Bayesian classification rule.
result The proposed EEF classifier outperforms conventional methods on real-life data sets.
New methods for Bayesian inference using mean shift particle systems.
problem Approximating expectations with unnormalized densities in Bayesian inference.
method Mean shift interacting particle systems that minimize maximum mean discrepancy (MMD).
result Mean shift interacting particle systems converge quickly and capture complex distributions.
Bayesian method infers local rules for collective animal movement.
problem Learn local rules governing long-term group behaviors.
method Bayesian Inverse Reinforcement Learning with Linearly-Solvable Markov Decision Process.
result Recover true costs and find value of collective movement.
Advances Bayesian inference by deriving GVI posteriors for robust predictions.
problem Severe misalignment between priors, likelihoods, and computing power in standard Bayesian inference.
method Introduces Generalized Variational Inference (GVI) by addressing three assumptions: well-specified priors, likelihoods, and computing power.
result GVI posteriors are a large and tractable family of belief distributions with appealing properties, including consistency and an interpretation as approximate ELBO.
Bayesian optimization improves Monte-Carlo tree search for better state value estimation.
problem Slow convergence in Monte-Carlo tree search due to averaging in backpropagation.
method Softmax MCTS and Monotone MCTS, using Bayesian optimization with Gaussian process prior.
result Our framework outperforms previous methods in computer Go.
Paper proves Jeffrey's update rule minimizes relative entropy.
problem Improving Bayesian learning algorithms.
method More concise proof of Jeffrey's update rule.
result Jeffrey's update rule reduces relative entropy.
We revisit the classical decision-theoretic problem of weighted expert voting from a statistical learning perspective. In particular, we examine the consistency (both asymptotic and finitary) of the optimal Nitzan-Paroush weighted majority and related rules. In the case of known expert competence levels, we give sharp …
Machine learning finds knots that bound ribbon disks.
problem Detecting ribbon knots in topology.
method Bayesian optimization and reinforcement learning.
result Successfully detected many ribbon knots up to 70 crossings.
Bayesian model predicts sequences better than LSTMs by identifying underlying rules.
problem Current RNNs struggle to generalize from limited training data and identify underlying rules in sequences.
method Bayesian model that learns underlying concepts from sequences and generalizes to new data.
result Bayesian model predicts sequences better than traditional LSTMs.
Bayesian analysis optimizes stop-loss thresholds based on drawdown distributions.
problem Arbitrary stop-loss levels in financial strategies.
method Bayesian analysis of drawdown distributions.
result Systematic selection of optimal stop-loss thresholds.
PROWL uses robust reward estimates to improve ITR selection.
problem Reward uncertainty in ITR estimation leads to inflated performance.
method PAC-Bayesian framework with reward uncertainty certificates.
result PROWL achieves better robust treatment regime estimation.
New learning rule simplifies Bayesian updates for deep learning.
problem Bayesian learning rule's complexity and manifold constraints.
method Lie-group approach to simplify Bayesian updates.
result New algorithm learns sparse features in deep learning.
Bayesian fairness tackles fairness in uncertain probabilistic models.
problem Fairness in decision making when probabilistic models are uncertain.
method Introducing Bayesian fairness, using balance fairness definition.
result Bayesian approach leads to fair decision rules under high uncertainty.
Asynchronous cooperative learning rules ensure all agents converge to correct hypothesis.
problem Cooperative learning in networks with unreliable communication.
method Proposed robust cooperative learning rule for weak communication networks.
result All agents' beliefs exponentially decay to the correct hypothesis.
New sampling rules improve best-arm identification in Bayesian bandits.
problem Best-arm identification in Bayesian bandits with fixed confidence guarantees.
method Top-Two Thompson Sampling (TTTS) and Top-Two Transportation Cost (T3C).
result First sample complexity analysis of TTTS and T3C for Gaussian rewards.
Bayesian model-based reinforcement learning is a formally elegant approach to learning optimal behaviour under model uncertainty, trading off exploration and exploitation in an ideal way. Unfortunately, finding the resulting Bayes-optimal policies is notoriously taxing, since the search space becomes enormous. In this …
DEEP-BO optimizes hyperparameters of deep networks, outperforming existing methods.
problem Hyperparameter optimization of deep networks is challenging due to the complexity and sensitivity of DNN performance.
method Enhanced Bayesian Optimization (DEEP-BO) specifically designed for deep networks, incorporating diversification, early termination, and parallelism.
result DEEP-BO outperforms or matches other state-of-the-art methods on six DNN benchmarks.
This research improves binary classification by balancing overfitting and generalization with a novel Bayesian approach.
problem Improving binary classification models to avoid overfitting and generalize well.
method Introduces a PAC-Bayes type learning rule with a balancing parameter λ to balance training error and KL divergence to a prior.
result A choice of λ ensures uniformly vanishing excess loss, even in the agnostic case, by under-regularizing or over-regularizing appropriately.
Kernel Bayesian inference is a principled approach to nonparametric inference in probabilistic graphical models, where probabilistic relationships between variables are learned from data in a nonparametric manner. Various algorithms of kernel Bayesian inference have been developed by combining kernelized basic probabil…
Kernel Bayes' rule has been proposed as a nonparametric kernel-based method to realize Bayesian inference in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. However, we demonstrate both theoretically and experimentally that the prediction result by kernel Bayes' rule is in some cases unnatural. We consider that this phenomenon is i…
Unified framework for hybrid learning and optimization via active inference.
problem Sequential decisions in black-box evaluations requiring both task improvement and uncertainty reduction.
method Pragmatic Curiosity (PraC) framework that evaluates queries by balancing information gain and pragmatic value.
result Unified approach reduces decision risk and improves coverage of critical regions without task-specific rules.