Opinions and beliefs determine the evolution of social systems. This is of particular interest in finance, as the increasing complexity of financial systems is coupled with information overload. Opinion formation, therefore, is not always the result of optimal information processing. On the contrary, agents are bounded…
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48 results for “opinion formation”
In the spirit of behavioral finance, we study the process of opinion formation among investors using a variant of the 2D Voter Model with a tunable social temperature. Further, a feedback acting on the temperature is introduced, such that social temperature reacts to market imbalances and thus becomes time dependent. I…
Model predicts majority of countries will prefer BRI over USD by 2020.
problem Predicting currency preferences in global trade networks.
method Opinion formation model based on UN Comtrade database, Monte Carlo simulations.
result By 2020, majority of countries prefer BRI over USD.
We propose a stochastic map model of economic dynamics. In the last decade, an array of observations in economics has been investigated in the econophysics literature, a major example being the universal features of inequality in terms of income and wealth. Another area of inquiry is the formation of opinion in a socie…
We seek to utilize the nonextensive statistics to the microscopic modeling of the interacting many-investor dynamics that drive the price changes in a market. The statistics of price changes are known to be fit well by the Students-T and power-law distributions of the nonextensive statistics. We therefore derive models…
A simple model of price formationcond-mat.stat-mech
A simple Ising spin model which can describe the mechanism of price formation in financial markets is proposed. In contrast to other agent-based models, the influence does not flow inward from the surrounding neighbors to the center site, but spreads outward from the center to the neighbors. The model thus describes th…
A dynamical model is introduced for the formation of a bullish or bearish trends driving an asset price in a given market. Initially, each agent decides to buy or sell according to its personal opinion, which results from the combination of its own private information, the public information and its own analysis. It th…
Financial economic models often assume that investors know (or agree on) the fundamental value of the shares of the firm, easing the passage from the individual to the collective dimension of the financial system generated by the Share Exchange over time. Our model relaxes that heroic assumption of one unique "true val…
Modeling financial market dynamics with noise and fundamentalist agents.
problem Understanding opinion formation and market behavior in financial markets.
method Agent-based model with Erdös-Rényi random graph structure, incorporating anxiety parameter.
result Model accurately reproduces key market features like fat-tailed returns and volatility clustering.
SINN combines social science and deep learning for predicting opinion dynamics.
problem Predicting opinion dynamics in social networks using traditional models requires extensive calibration with real data.
method SINN integrates theoretical models and social media data using physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) and matrix factorization.
result SINN outperforms six baseline methods in predicting opinion dynamics on real-world and synthetic datasets.
Modeling social network activity through user and topic interaction.
problem Understanding complex dynamics of opinion formation in social networks.
method Mixture of Interacting Cascades (MIC) model of marked multidimensional Hawkes processes.
result MIC achieves superior performance in modeling information cascade spread.
We propose a three-state microscopic opinion formation model for the purpose of simulating the dynamics of financial markets. In order to mimic the heterogeneous composition of the mass of investors in a market, the agent-based model considers two different types of traders: noise traders and contrarians. Agents are re…
Bubble, Critical Zone and the Crash of Royal Aholdcond-mat.stat-mech
Our analysis of financial data, in terms of super-exponential growth, suggests that the seed of the 2002/03 crisis of the Dutch supermarket giant AHOLD was planted in 1996. It became quite visible in 1999 when the post-bubble destabilization regime was well-developed and acted as the precursor of an inevitable collapse…
Predicting future stock market structure by combining social and financial network informationq-fin.ST
We demonstrate that future market correlation structure can be predicted with high out-of-sample accuracy using a multiplex network approach that combines information from social media and financial data. Market structure is measured by quantifying the co-movement of asset prices returns, while social structure is meas…
Study measures inequality in social-economic systems using Fokker-Planck equations and Lotka-Volterra dynamics.
problem Measuring inequality in oscillatory social-economic systems described by Fokker-Planck equations and Lotka-Volterra dynamics.
method Used Fokker-Planck equations and Lotka-Volterra dynamics to model inequality, focusing on coefficient of variation as a measure.
result Inequality initially tends to decrease in oscillatory systems, contrary to steady-state models.
Subjective Logic (SL) is one of well-known belief models that can explicitly deal with uncertain opinions and infer unknown opinions based on a rich set of operators of fusing multiple opinions. Due to high simplicity and applicability, SL has been substantially applied in a variety of decision making in the area of cy…
Kinetic Exchange Models in Economics and Sociologyphysics.soc-ph
In this article, we briefly review the different aspects and applications of kinetic exchange models in economics and sociology. Our main aim is to show in what manner the kinetic exchange models for closed economic systems were inspired by the kinetic theory of gas molecules. The simple yet powerful framework of kinet…
In an increasingly polarized world, demagogues who reduce complexity down to simple arguments based on emotion are gaining in popularity. Are opinions and online discussions falling into demagoguery? In this work, we aim to provide computational tools to investigate this question and, by doing so, explore the nature an…
Incorporating Expert Opinion on Observable Quantities into Statistical Models -- A General Frameworkstat.ML
The paper introduces a method to incorporate expert opinion on observable quantities into statistical models.
problem Tackling the challenge of integrating expert knowledge on observable quantities into statistical models.
method The approach involves updating a prior belief using a loss function that reflects expert opinion on observable quantities.
result The method allows for a flexible specification of expert opinion and is straightforward to implement.
Analysis of opinion dynamics in social networks plays an important role in today's life. For applications such as predicting users' political preference, it is particularly important to be able to analyze the dynamics of competing opinions. While observing the evolution of polar opinions of a social network's users ove…
This paper investigates a financial market where returns depend on an unobservable Gaussian drift process. While the observation of returns yields information about the underlying drift, we also incorporate discrete-time expert opinions as an external source of information. For estimating the hidden drift it is crucial…
Study improves fair opinion aggregation by balancing voter attributes.
problem Aggregation of opinions can be biased by voter attributes.
method Combines majority voting and D&S model with fairness options.
result Effective combination of Soft D&S and fairness options for different data types.
Model financial markets with social media influences using hierarchical networks.
problem Understanding social media's impact on financial markets.
method Agent-based model with hierarchical influence network.
result Model accurately simulates real-world financial market behaviors.
Opinion polls have been the bridge between public opinion and politicians in elections. However, developing surveys to disclose people's feedback with respect to economic issues is limited, expensive, and time-consuming. In recent years, social media such as Twitter has enabled people to share their opinions regarding …
Optimal investment strategy with expert opinions in uncertain conditions.
problem Optimizing wealth in a model with unobservable drift and costly expert opinions.
method Embedding into a full information problem, using viscosity solutions and stochastic Perron's method.
result Constructing optimal trading and expert opinion strategies under sufficient regularity conditions.
Crowd opinions in microblogs can predict event outcomes, matching with expert opinions.
problem Utilizing crowd wisdom for event outcome prediction in microblogs.
method Multi-label sentiment classification of tweets to gauge crowd opinion and compare with expert predictions.
result Crowd opinions in microblogs often match with expert opinions, especially in non-debate events.
The paper develops a method for inferring second opinions from experts using counterfactual inference.
problem Designing efficient decision support systems for second opinions.
method Set invariant Gumbel-Max structural causal model for multiclass classification.
result The proposed model can infer second opinions more accurately than non-causal models.
A new method combines experts' opinions to train regression models with noisy labels.
problem Training regression models with noisy labels from multiple experts.
method Estimate each labeler's expertise and combine opinions using learned weights.
result Empirically outperforms existing techniques on simulated and real data.
Online reviews have become a vital source of information in purchasing a service (product). Opinion spammers manipulate reviews, affecting the overall perception of the service. A key challenge in detecting opinion spam is obtaining ground truth. Though there exists a large set of reviews online, only a few of them hav…
Well-defined formal definitions for sentiment and opinion are extended to incorporate the necessary elements to provide a formal quantitative definition of reputation. This definition takes the form of a time-based index, in which each element is a function of a collection of opinions mined during a given time period. …
How social reinforcement learning can lead to metastable polarisation and the voter modelphysics.soc-ph
Study shows social reinforcement learning can lead to persistent but metastable polarization.
problem Understanding the persistence and dynamics of opinion polarization.
method Simulation and mathematical analysis of a reinforcement learning model of opinion dynamics.
result Polarization observed in the model is metastable and will eventually lead to consensus.
Escaping the Brownian stalkersq-fin.TR
We propose a simple model for the behaviour of longterm investors on a stock market, consisting of three particles, which represent the current price of the stock and the opinion of the buyers, respectively sellers, about the right trading price. As time evolves, both groups of traders update their opinions with respec…
This paper investigates optimal trading strategies in a financial market with multidimensional stock returns where the drift is an unobservable multivariate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Information about the drift is obtained by observing stock returns and expert opinions. The latter provide unbiased estimates on the cu…
The dynamics of market prices is described as the evolution of opinions in the trading community regarding future market behavior. The price then is a function of the voting process of the market players in favor to raise or reduce the value of a stock. The model presented in this paper is suited for pricing of options…
Transformers approximate mean-field dynamics of indistinguishable particles.
problem Approximating the dynamics of indistinguishable particles in complex systems.
method Using transformers to model the mean-field dynamics of interacting particle systems.
result Theoretical bounds on the distance between true and transformer-obtained mean-field dynamics.
The proliferation of fake news and filter bubbles makes it increasingly difficult to form an unbiased, balanced opinion towards a topic. To ameliorate this, we propose 360° Stance Detection, a tool that aggregates news with multiple perspectives on a topic. It presents them on a spectrum ranging from support to opposit…
Opinion Mining for Relating Subjective Expressions and Annual Earnings in US Financial Statementscs.CL
Financial statements contain quantitative information and manager's subjective evaluation of firm's financial status. Using information released in U.S. 10-K filings. Both qualitative and quantitative appraisals are crucial for quality financial decisions. To extract such opinioned statements from the reports, we built…
Donald Trump was lagging behind in nearly all opinion polls leading up to the 2016 US presidential election, but he surprisingly won the election. This raises the following important questions: 1) why most opinion polls were not accurate in 2016? and 2) how to improve the accuracies of opinion polls? In this paper, we …
Motivated by Supervised Opinion Analysis, we propose a novel framework devoted to Structured Output Learning with Abstention (SOLA). The structure prediction model is able to abstain from predicting some labels in the structured output at a cost chosen by the user in a flexible way. For that purpose, we decompose the p…
An increasing number of people are using online social networking services (SNSs), and a significant amount of information related to experiences in consumption is shared in this new media form. Text mining is an emerging technique for mining useful information from the web. We aim at discovering in particular tweets s…
Extends geometrical description of tensor manifolds in tree-based formats.
problem Geometrical description of tensor manifolds in tree-based formats.
method Provided a new geometrical description of manifolds of tensors in tree-based format.
result Geometrical description compatible with Tucker format.
Asymptotic Filter Behavior for High-Frequency Expert Opinions in a Market with Gaussian Driftq-fin.MF
This paper investigates a financial market where stock returns depend on a hidden Gaussian mean reverting drift process. Information on the drift is obtained from returns and expert opinions in the form of noisy signals about the current state of the drift arriving at the jump times of a homogeneous Poisson process. Dr…
We propose a method to infer lead-lag networks of traders from the observation of their trade record as well as to reconstruct their state of supply and demand when they do not trade. The method relies on the Kinetic Ising model to describe how information propagates among traders, assigning a positive or negative "opi…
Quantum mechanics models human perception and decision-making, offering a new approach to understanding social dynamics.
problem Understanding the complex interactions between individuals and groups in social networks.
method Developed a simple computational code based on quantum mechanics principles to model human perception and decision-making.
result Quantum-inspired models can help explain differences in individual and group behavior.
A new platform models how narratives influence financial markets.
problem Explaining irrational market behaviors through narratives.
method Integrated opinion dynamics and agent-based modeling.
result Initial results show how narratives shape financial outcomes.
This work uses variational inference to estimate parameters of opinion dynamics models.
problem Challenges in parameter estimation for ABMs of social phenomena.
method Transformed ABM parameter estimation into an optimization problem using variational inference.
result Estimates parameters more accurately than simulation-based and MCMC methods.
Bayesian model fuses multiple classifiers with explicit correlation modeling.
problem Combining outputs of multiple classifiers with explicit correlation.
method Hierarchical Bayesian model with correlated Dirichlet distribution.
result Fused classifier performance can be Bayes optimal even for highly correlated base classifiers.
Simulating fluid flow in geological formations requires mesh generation, lithology mapping to the cells, and computing geometric properties such as normal vectors and volume of cells. The purpose of this research work is to compute and process the geometrical information required for performing numerical simulations in…