Multiple hypothesis testing, a situation when we wish to consider many hypotheses, is a core problem in statistical inference that arises in almost every scientific field. In this setting, controlling the false discovery rate (FDR), which is the expected proportion of type I error, is an important challenge for making …
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48 results for “online procedure”
New method detects changes online with bounds on delay.
problem Detecting changes in data streams efficiently.
method Maximizes discrepancy between pre-change and post-change distributions.
result Non-asymptotic bounds on average running length and detection delay.
OOMP selects features online for sparse linear regression.
problem Feature selection in high-dimensional sparse linear models.
method Online algorithm that alternates between feature selection and coefficient estimation.
result Theoretical guarantees and computational complexity analysis of OOMP.
New method for online inference of constrained optimization problems.
problem Online inference of constrained stochastic optimization problems.
method Random scaling of Sketched Stochastic Sequential Quadratic Programming (SSQP).
result Asymptotically valid confidence intervals and matrix-free computation.
Study online learning of quantum processes, showing feasibility for certain types.
problem Learning quantum processes adaptively, especially for bounded gate complexity and Pauli channels.
method Online learning, mistake-bounded model, multiplicative weights update algorithm, Bell sampling.
result Online learning feasible for quantum channels of bounded gate complexity and Pauli channels.
Paper proposes a new dynamic pricing method with always-valid online statistical learning.
problem Designing dynamic pricing policies that adapt to online uncertainty and maintain validity.
method Regularized online statistical learning with theoretical guarantees and three major advantages.
result Proposed OORMLP pricing policy secures logarithmic regret in decision horizon.
Efficient online kernel CUSUM detects changes quickly and accurately.
problem Detecting changes in online data streams efficiently.
method Online kernel CUSUM using maximum kernel statistics.
result Increased sensitivity to small changes compared to existing methods.
A new method calibrates forecasts without sacrificing expertise.
problem Forecasters' calibration scores can be manipulated to appear expert.
method Deterministic and stochastic online procedures to calibrate forecasts.
result Calibration can be achieved without losing expertise.
Online algorithm detects community structure in dynamic event streams.
problem Community detection in networks with temporal event streams.
method Continuous-time point process latent network models with fast online variational inference.
result Online inference achieves comparable community recovery to non-online methods but with computational gains.
New method controls false discoveries in online testing with deadlines.
problem Controlling false discoveries in online hypothesis testing with decision deadlines.
method Benjamini-Hochberg-type procedure over a moving window of hypotheses with adaptive threshold parameters.
result Controls false discovery rate at every stage and adaptively chosen stopping times.
Paper proposes online learning for estimating AC network admittance matrix.
problem Missing or outdated information on power grid topology and parameters.
method Recursive identification algorithm using phasor measurements, enhanced with DOE for optimal data excitation.
result Improves on existing techniques and substantiated by numerical studies.
We study the control of a linear dynamical system with adversarial disturbances (as opposed to statistical noise). The objective we consider is one of regret: we desire an online control procedure that can do nearly as well as that of a procedure that has full knowledge of the disturbances in hindsight. Our main result…
In this paper, we present a machine learning approach for estimating the number of incident wavefronts in a direction of arrival scenario. In contrast to previous works, a multilayer neural network with a cross-entropy objective is trained. Furthermore, we investigate an online training procedure that allows an adaptio…
Improved online penalty selection for time series models.
problem Efficiently selecting penalty parameters for lasso in time series models.
method Enhanced autoregressive model with online penalty selection.
result Significantly improved computational performance and forecast accuracy.
Multiple hypothesis testing is a core problem in statistical inference and arises in almost every scientific field. Given a set of null hypotheses , Benjamini and Hochberg introduced the false discovery rate (FDR), which is the expected proportion of false positives among rejected nu…
Paper develops robust policy evaluation for reinforcement learning with outlier and heavy-tailed rewards.
problem Outlier contamination and heavy-tailed rewards in reinforcement learning.
method Develops a fully online robust policy evaluation procedure and efficient statistical inference.
result Establishes the Bahadur-type representation of the estimator and develops an online inference procedure.
We introduce a new recursive aggregation procedure called Bernstein Online Aggregation (BOA). The exponential weights include an accuracy term and a second order term that is a proxy of the quadratic variation as in Hazan and Kale (2010). This second term stabilizes the procedure that is optimal in different senses. We…
New online method for statistical inference with matrix context in decision-making.
problem Statistical inference in decision-making with matrix context.
method Proposes a fully online procedure to conduct statistical inference with adaptive data collection, handling low-rank structure.
result Establishes asymptotic normality of debiased estimators and proves validity of confidence intervals.
Systemic Risk Surveillanceecon.EM
Online surveillance detects systemic risk in financial markets.
problem Detecting and monitoring systemic risk in financial markets.
method Online monitoring procedures for multiple series, controlling for false rejections.
result Procedures allow timely detection of financial distress.
Paper improves probabilistic forecasts of electricity prices.
problem Combining multivariate probabilistic forecasts with dependencies.
method Online learning algorithm using Bernstein Online Aggregation (BOA).
result Significant improvement in CRPS over uniform combination.
Doubly fair dynamic pricing ensures equal prices for different groups over time.
problem Achieving equal prices for different groups in online dynamic pricing.
method Online learning algorithm that balances procedural and substantive fairness.
result Achieves regret, zero procedural unfairness, and substantive unfairness.
Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) is an immensely popular approach for online learning in settings where data arrives in a stream or data sizes are very large. However, despite an ever-increasing volume of work on SGD, much less is known about the statistical inferential properties of SGD-based predictions. Taking a fu…
POSL is an online learning algorithm for personalized predictions.
problem Real-time personalized predictions for streaming data.
method Online Super Learner algorithm that optimizes predictions with respect to baseline covariates.
result POSL provides reliable predictions and adapts to changing data environments.
New method detects changes in high-dimensional Gaussian data streams.
problem Detecting changes in high-dimensional data streams.
method Likelihood ratio tests across scales and coordinates.
result Patience (null rejection rate) at desired level, response delay under alternative.
A Log-Linear Non-Parametric Online Changepoint Detection Algorithm based on Functional Pruningstat.ME
A flexible nonparametric online changepoint detection algorithm for high-frequency data.
problem Detecting changes in real-time in high-frequency data streams with limited computational resources.
method NP-FOCuS, a sequential likelihood ratio test for a change in the empirical cumulative density function, using functional pruning.
result NP-FOCuS outperforms current nonparametric online changepoint techniques in various settings.
Smooth calibration improves forecast reliability even with leaked information.
problem Improving forecast reliability with leaked information.
method Combining nearby forecasts to ensure smooth calibration, which can be guaranteed by deterministic procedures.
result Smooth calibration can be guaranteed by deterministic procedures even with leaked forecasts, and it yields uncoupled finite-memory dynamics in games.
Online method selects candidates from data streams, ensuring irreversible decisions.
problem Conformal selection's incompatibility with irreversible decisions in online scenarios.
method Online Conformal Selection with Accept-to-Reject Changes (OCS-ARC) incorporating online Benjamini-Hochberg procedure.
result OCS-ARC controls FDR at or below nominal level, improving selection power.
Online graph learning from matrix-valued time series data.
problem Identifying dependency structure among sensors in a network.
method Extends VAR models to matrix-variate models, proposes online procedures for graph learning, and introduces Lasso-type approaches.
result Demonstrates effectiveness of online graph learning methods in both synthetic and real data.
A winning method for day-ahead electricity demand forecasting during and after the COVID-19 pandemic.
problem Day-ahead electricity demand forecasting during and after the COVID-19 pandemic.
method Online forecast combination of multiple point prediction models with a holiday adjustment procedure and smoothed Bernstein Online Aggregation (BOA).
result Excellent forecasting performance, particularly due to the holiday adjustment procedure and fully adaptive smoothed BOA approach.
Collaborative filtering, especially latent factor model, has been popularly used in personalized recommendation. Latent factor model aims to learn user and item latent factors from user-item historic behaviors. To apply it into real big data scenarios, efficiency becomes the first concern, including offline model train…
Paper develops methods for statistical inference with SGD in nonconvex optimization.
problem Statistical inference for nonconvex optimization problems.
method Proposes two online inferential procedures combining SGD and bootstrap techniques.
result Establishes error convergence rates and asymptotically valid bootstrap confidence intervals.
Bayesian method improves online NARMAX model identification.
problem Online identification of nonlinear systems with small sample sizes and low noise.
method Variational Bayesian inference using message passing algorithm for polynomial NARMAX models.
result Variational Bayesian estimator outperforms recursive and offline least-squares methods.
Biological research often involves testing a growing number of null hypotheses as new data is accumulated over time. We study the problem of online control of the familywise error rate (FWER), that is testing an apriori unbounded sequence of hypotheses (p-values) one by one over time without knowing the future, such th…
Paper develops online statistical inference methods for stochastic optimization using Kiefer-Wolfowitz algorithms.
problem Online statistical inference of model parameters in stochastic optimization problems.
method Kiefer-Wolfowitz algorithm with random search directions, asymptotic distribution analysis.
result Developed valid confidence intervals for online statistical inference.
We propose a nonparametric sequential test that aims to address two practical problems pertinent to online randomized experiments: (i) how to do a hypothesis test for complex metrics; (ii) how to prevent type error inflation under continuous monitoring. The proposed test does not require knowledge of the underlying…
In this paper, we propose an AdaBoost-assisted extreme learning machine for efficient online sequential classification (AOS-ELM). In order to achieve better accuracy in online sequential learning scenarios, we utilize the cost-sensitive algorithm-AdaBoost, which diversifying the weak classifiers, and adding the forgett…
New method for online inference using SGD with random scaling.
problem Efficient online inference for SGD parameters.
method Asymptotic pivotal statistics via random scaling.
result Robust and efficient online inference without resampling.
The Duffing oscillator's parameters are identified online using variational message passing.
problem Estimating parameters of a nonlinear Duffing oscillator in real-time.
method Variational message passing on a factor graph of the Duffing oscillator's generative model.
result The online inference procedure performs as well as offline methods.
Online Estimation with Rolling Validation: Adaptive Nonparametric Estimation with Streaming Datamath.ST
New method improves online nonparametric estimators with minimal extra computation.
problem Model selection and hyperparameter tuning for online nonparametric estimators.
method Weighted rolling validation procedure for online cross-validation.
result Improves base estimators to achieve better heuristic performance and adaptive convergence rate.
New method learns decisions from collective preferences without individual covariates.
problem Making decisions online without individual covariates.
method Collaborative filtering, matrix completion bandit, ε-greedy policy, online gradient descent, inverse propensity weighting.
result Method outperforms benchmarks and reveals new discoveries.
Bayesian online learning in the one-pass regime: Frequentist validity and uncertainty quantificationmath.ST
Bayesian online learning algorithm for one-pass data, achieving frequentist validity and uncertainty quantification.
problem Theoretical limitations in Bayesian online learning, especially in the one-pass setting.
method Proposed a new Bayesian online learning algorithm with a warm-start phase for the one-pass regime, establishing convergence rates and valid uncertainty quantification.
result The sequentially updated posterior attains optimal convergence rates and valid uncertainty quantification without diverging mini-batch sample sizes.
A method for efficient statistical inference from online algorithms.
problem Computational constraints in online algorithms make traditional variance estimation difficult.
method HulC method that wraps around online algorithms to produce valid confidence regions.
result The HulC method produces asymptotically valid confidence regions for online algorithms.
This paper introduces a reinforcement learning framework for A/B testing with dynamic causal effects.
problem Challenges in online experiments with sequential treatments and long-term impacts.
method Reinforcement learning framework for sequential monitoring and updating.
result Demonstrates improved treatment effect evaluation over current methods.
Deep learning models are considered to be state-of-the-art in many offline machine learning tasks. However, many of the techniques developed are not suitable for online learning tasks. The problem of using deep learning models with sequential data becomes even harder when several loss functions need to be considered si…
We consider an agent who is involved in a Markov decision process and receives a vector of outcomes every round. Her objective is to maximize a global concave reward function on the average vectorial outcome. The problem models applications such as multi-objective optimization, maximum entropy exploration, and constrai…
A scalable online method for Gaussian processes that improves decision-making in various applications.
problem Scalability issues with Gaussian processes for online decision-making.
method Online variational conditioning (OVC) for SVGPs.
result OVC enables efficient online learning and decision-making with SVGPs.
We present a framework and analysis of consistent binary classification for complex and non-decomposable performance metrics such as the F-measure and the Jaccard measure. The proposed framework is general, as it applies to both batch and online learning, and to both linear and non-linear models. Our work follows recen…
BOA improves financial forecasting by combining expert models.
problem Challenges in choosing between multiple machine learning models for financial forecasting.
method Online aggregation of expert models using Bernstein Online Aggregation (BOA) procedure.
result BOA leads to better portfolio performance, higher Sharpe Ratio, and lower shortfall.