This paper introduces a reinforcement learning framework for A/B testing with dynamic causal effects.
problem Challenges in online experiments with sequential treatments and long-term impacts.
method Reinforcement learning framework for sequential monitoring and updating.
result Demonstrates improved treatment effect evaluation over current methods.
Boosts A/B test precision using auxiliary data from historical users.
problem Small sample sizes and imprecise estimates in A/B tests.
method Coupling design-based causal estimation with machine-learning models of historical user data.
result Effect estimates using auxiliary data are roughly equivalent to increasing sample size by 20%, or up to 50-80% in some cases.
The paper improves A/B testing for non-Gaussian data, ensuring reliable results with large sample sizes.
problem Inaccurate A/B testing results due to non-normal data and unequal sample sizes.
method Derives explicit formulas for minimum sample size and introduces an Edgeworth-based correction.
result Corrected method improves reliability of A/B testing in real-world conditions.
Before A/B testing online a new version of a recommender system, it is usual to perform some offline evaluations on historical data. We focus on evaluation methods that compute an estimator of the potential uplift in revenue that could generate this new technology. It helps to iterate faster and to avoid losing money b…
Deep network optimizes ad bidding for first-price auctions.
problem Optimizing bid prices for first-price auctions in online advertising.
method Introduced a deep distribution network for optimal bidding.
result Algorithm outperforms previous methods in terms of surplus and eCPX metrics.
A/B testing improves marketing decisions by selecting effective stratification variables.
problem Improving the sensitivity of A/B testing through stratified sampling.
method Designing an algorithm to select a subset of stratification variables for variance reduction.
result The subset selection method outperforms other variance reduction techniques in A/B testing.
This paper unifies two types of statistical methods for estimating treatment effects.
problem Isolating online A/B-tests and off-policy evaluation.
method Establishes formal equivalence between online Difference-in-Means and off-policy Inverse Propensity Scoring methods.
result Standard online methods are mathematically equivalent to off-policy methods with optimal control variates.
This paper introduces a Bayesian framework for optimizing online experiments to maximize profit.
problem Statistical flaws and reliance on proxy metrics in A/B tests compromise their effectiveness.
method Hierarchical Bayesian model for estimating conversion probability and monetary value, decision-theoretic stopping rule.
result The framework ensures experiments conclude when no variant offers a significant profit improvement, conserving resources.
We propose an alternative framework to existing setups for controlling false alarms when multiple A/B tests are run over time. This setup arises in many practical applications, e.g. when pharmaceutical companies test new treatment options against control pills for different diseases, or when internet companies test the…
Machine learning experiments often mislead due to unmet assumptions.
problem Machine learning experiments with pooled data may not meet necessary assumptions for unbiased causal effect estimation.
method Analysis of assumptions required for unbiased causal effect estimation in machine learning experiments.
result Practical applications of A/B-tests with machine learning models may not yield unbiased estimates of causal effect.
Bayesian optimization for long-term outcomes using fast and slow experiments.
problem Optimizing long-term system effects with short-term misleading results.
method Combining fast and slow experiments for Bayesian optimization.
result Sequential optimization over large action spaces in a short time.
Optimizing an interactive system against a predefined online metric is particularly challenging, when the metric is computed from user feedback such as clicks and payments. The key challenge is the counterfactual nature: in the case of Web search, any change to a component of the search engine may result in a different…
Extends effect variable concept to finite states for web search evaluation.
problem Finding effect of variant variables in changes of observable variables.
method Theoretical analysis and simultaneous distribution decomposition.
result States of extreme effect variable are minimally affected by variant and highly different in observable variable.
State of the art online learning procedures focus either on selecting the best alternative ("best arm identification") or on minimizing the cost (the "regret"). We merge these two objectives by providing the theoretical analysis of cost minimizing algorithms that are also delta-PAC (with a proven guaranteed bound on th…
New framework for evaluating ad auctions using stochastic modeling.
problem Challenges in evaluating deterministic ad auctions.
method Repurposed bid landscape model to approximate propensity scores, enabling robust OPE estimators.
result Remarkable alignment with online A/B test results, achieving 92% MDA in CTR prediction.
The rollout of new versions of a feature in modern applications is a manual multi-stage process, as the feature is released to ever larger groups of users, while its performance is carefully monitored. This kind of A/B testing is ubiquitous, but suboptimal, as the monitoring requires heavy human intervention, is not gu…
New metrics boost A/B-test power by up to 210%.
problem High cost and type-II errors in A/B-tests.
method Learn metrics from short-term signals to maximize power.
result Statistical power increased by up to 210%.
Near-optimal confidence intervals for bounded data.
problem Online inference for sequential decision problems like A/B testing.
method Utilizing Bentkus' concentration results to improve on existing methods.
result Near-optimal confidence intervals confirmed favorable in synthetic and practical applications.
Improved conversion rate prediction in online advertising using self-supervised pre-training.
problem Data sparsity and calibration issues in predicting conversions given clicks.
method Self-supervised pre-training on all conversion events to enrich CVR prediction model without compromising calibration.
result Improvements in offline training and online A/B tests, with full deployment to Yahoo native advertising system.
Bayesian model predicts online activity participation.
problem Predicting the number of new users initiating an activity.
method Simple Bayesian approach for online activity sample sizes.
result Effective in predicting sample size for online experiments.
Automated method selects best model from many for production systems.
problem Selecting the best model for production systems from a large pool.
method Automated online experimentation mechanism using Bayesian surrogate models.
result Efficiently identifies the best model with small online experiments.
Combines offline causal inference and online bandit learning for better decision-making.
problem Making adaptive decisions using both logged and streaming data to avoid user harm.
method Unified offline causal inference and online learning algorithms, deriving bounds on decision accuracy.
result First upper regret bound for forest-based online bandit algorithms.
A family of maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) kernel two-sample tests is introduced. Members of the test family are called Block-tests or B-tests, since the test statistic is an average over MMDs computed on subsets of the samples. The choice of block size allows control over the tradeoff between test power and computatio…
LOLA uses LLMs to optimize content delivery, outperforming traditional methods.
problem Identifying the most engaging headlines for user engagement.
method LOLA integrates LLMs with adaptive experimentation to optimize content delivery.
result LOLA outperforms traditional methods in optimizing user engagement.
Paper addresses selection bias in online advertising auctions.
problem Selection bias affects auction truthfulness and advertiser profits.
method Theoretical analysis combined with multi-task learning.
result Selection bias can be significantly reduced using multi-task learning.
Improved A/B testing by leveraging system similarities.
problem Traditional A/B testing ignores potential system similarities.
method Off-policy estimation to exploit system propensities.
result Improved A/B testing estimators achieve better accuracy.
New framework estimates long-term outcomes from short-term data.
problem Estimating long-term outcomes from short-term data.
method Reward function decomposition-based framework (LOPE).
result LOPE outperforms existing methods, especially when surrogacy is violated.
Machine learning method characterizes network interference in A/B tests.
problem Compromised A/B test reliability due to network interference.
method Causal network motifs and machine learning models.
result Outperforms conventional methods in characterizing network interference.
Unified framework for robust A/B testing under model misspecification.
problem Improving sample efficiency in A/B testing with model misspecification.
method Unified framework for contextual bandit and dynamic settings, proving worst-case mean squared error bounds.
result Empirically validated approach using synthetic and real-world datasets.
Improves A/B testing power using a two-armed bandit framework.
problem Comparing outcomes under a new policy to a control.
method Doubly robust estimation, two-armed bandit framework, permutation-based method.
result Superior performance in A/B testing compared to existing methods.
Optimizes recommender selection online with D-optimal design.
problem Finding the optimal recommender in online exploration-exploitation.
method Leverages D-optimal design from statistics to maximize information gain.
result Achieves maximum information gain during online exploration.
This paper analyzes switchback experiments in A/B testing, revealing key factors affecting their effectiveness.
problem Understanding the effectiveness of different switchback designs in A/B testing.
method Comprehensive comparative analysis of various switchback designs in Markovian environments, covering state-of-the-art RL estimators.
result The effectiveness of switchback designs depends on the size of the carryover effect and reward autocorrelations.
The paper optimizes A/B tests by balancing lift and cost in large-scale settings.
problem Balancing lift and cost in A/B tests for large-scale experimentation.
method Empirical Bayes approach using a greedy knapsack algorithm to rank experiments based on lift-to-cost ratio, incorporating local false discovery rate (lfdr).
result The proposed method maximizes expected profit while controlling false discovery rate, demonstrating superior performance in large-scale settings.
Comparison Lift uses bandit algorithms to optimize online ad testing.
problem Optimizing online ad testing to maximize click-through rates.
method Bandit-based experimentation algorithm that adapts to test results.
result Ad click-through rates increased by 46% on average.
This paper proposes a new AED framework for multi-metric experiments with fixed budget.
problem Statistical power challenges in testing multiple metrics simultaneously.
method Two-phase structure: adaptive exploration followed by validation. SHRVar algorithm with relative-variance-based sampling.
result Achieves provable error probability that decreases exponentially.
Paper uses RL to estimate long-term treatment effects efficiently.
problem Estimating long-term treatment effects in nonstationary settings.
method Reinforcement Learning (RL) for Markov processes.
result Demonstrated promising results in synthetic and real-world datasets.
Paper addresses inconsistency between offline and online LTR performance.
problem Inconsistency between offline and online LTR performance in E-commerce.
method Proposes an evaluator-generator framework to maximize evaluator score using reinforcement learning.
result Significant improvement in Conversion Rate (CR) over existing models.
GCF estimates heterogeneous treatment effects for continuous treatments in online marketplaces.
problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects for continuous treatments in online marketplaces.
method Kernel-based doubly robust estimator and distance-based splitting criterion.
result GCF estimates heterogeneous treatment effects for continuous treatments effectively.
Major internet companies routinely perform tens of thousands of A/B tests each year. Such large-scale sequential experimentation has resulted in a recent spurt of new algorithms that can provably control the false discovery rate (FDR) in a fully online fashion. However, current state-of-the-art adaptive algorithms can …
Improves A/B testing by detecting minor treatment effects.
problem Challenges in identifying small average treatment effects.
method Maximum probability-driven two-armed bandit (TAB) process with weighted mean volatility statistic.
result Significant improvement in A/B testing with reduced experimental costs.
This study uses OPE methods to quickly assess auction policies.
problem Rapid decision-making in dynamic auction environments.
method Off-Policy Evaluation and counterfactual methods.
result Improved policy selection and optimization.
Understanding users' context is essential for successful recommendations, especially for Online-to-Offline (O2O) recommendation, such as Yelp, Groupon, and Koubei. Different from traditional recommendation where individual preference is mostly static, O2O recommendation should be dynamic to capture variation of users' …
New framework minimizes interference and selection bias in network A/B testing.
problem Interference and selection bias in network A/B testing.
method Proposes a principled framework that jointly minimizes interference and selection bias using edge spillover probability and cluster matching.
result Significantly lower error in causal effect estimation compared to existing solutions.
Transformer RL optimizes A/B testing for time series experiments.
problem Challenges in applying A/B testing to time series experiments, especially with limited history and strong assumptions.
method Transformer reinforcement learning approach that conditions allocation on full history and optimizes MSE without restrictive assumptions.
result Consistently outperforms existing designs in synthetic, simulator, and real-world data.
Bayesian nonparametric model predicts user activity and intervention success.
problem Predicting user activity and intervention success in online experiments.
method Bayesian nonparametric approach to model user heterogeneity and derive user activity predictions.
result The proposed method outperforms existing approaches in predicting user activity and intervention success.
The traditional offline approaches are no longer sufficient for building modern recommender systems in domains such as online news services, mainly due to the high dynamics of environment changes and necessity to operate on a large scale with high data sparsity. The ability to balance exploration with exploitation make…
Taobao, as the largest online retail platform in the world, provides billions of online display advertising impressions for millions of advertisers every day. For commercial purposes, the advertisers bid for specific spots and target crowds to compete for business traffic. The platform chooses the most suitable ads to …
Paper evaluates dynamic QTE for ridesharing data.
problem Assessing QTE in ridesharing with skewed outcomes.
method Developed VCDP models to estimate dynamic CQTE.
result Dynamic CQTE equals sum of individual CQTEs.