A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Paper models foreign exchange markets and develops an on-line portfolio selection algorithm.
We consider on-line density estimation with a parameterized density from the exponential family. The on-line algorithm receives one example at a time and maintains a parameter that is essentially an average of the past examples. After receiving an example the algorithm incurs a loss which is the negative log-likelihood…
In this paper, we establish a robustification of an on-line algorithm for modelling asset prices within a hidden Markov model (HMM). In this HMM framework, parameters of the model are guided by a Markov chain in discrete time, parameters of the asset returns are therefore able to switch between different regimes. The p…
Research compares ML and Time Series methods for generating trading signals.
In this paper we propose a computationally efficient algorithm for on-line variable selection in multivariate regression problems involving high dimensional data streams. The algorithm recursively extracts all the latent factors of a partial least squares solution and selects the most important variables for each facto…
On-line estimation plays an important role in process control and monitoring. Obtaining a theoretical solution to the simultaneous state-parameter estimation problem for non-linear stochastic systems involves solving complex multi-dimensional integrals that are not amenable to analytical solution. While basic sequentia…
Bayesian method detects changepoints in non-stationary data.
Paper describes an on-line PCA algorithm for real-time data analysis.
The paper describes an application of Aggregating Algorithm to the problem of regression. It generalizes earlier results concerned with plain linear regression to kernel techniques and presents an on-line algorithm which performs nearly as well as any oblivious kernel predictor. The paper contains the derivation of an …
On-line portfolio selection has attracted increasing interests in machine learning and AI communities recently. Empirical evidences show that stock's high and low prices are temporary and stock price relatives are likely to follow the mean reversion phenomenon. While the existing mean reversion strategies are shown to …
This paper re-examines the problem of parameter estimation in Bayesian networks with missing values and hidden variables from the perspective of recent work in on-line learning [Kivinen & Warmuth, 1994]. We provide a unified framework for parameter estimation that encompasses both on-line learning, where the model is c…
The problem of on-line off-policy evaluation (OPE) has been actively studied in the last decade due to its importance both as a stand-alone problem and as a module in a policy improvement scheme. However, most Temporal Difference (TD) based solutions ignore the discrepancy between the stationary distribution of the beh…
We consider an on-line system identification setting, in which new data become available at given time steps. In order to meet real-time estimation requirements, we propose a tailored Bayesian system identification procedure, in which the hyper-parameters are still updated through Marginal Likelihood maximization, but …
RAD detects anomalies in unreliable data streams with up to 98% accuracy.
Most of machine learning deals with vector parameters. Ideally we would like to take higher order information into account and make use of matrix or even tensor parameters. However the resulting algorithms are usually inefficient. Here we address on-line learning with matrix parameters. It is often easy to obtain onlin…
In some applications and in order to address real world situations better, data may be more complex than simple vectors. In some examples, they can be known through their pairwise dissimilarities only. Several variants of the Self Organizing Map algorithm were introduced to generalize the original algorithm to this fra…
SparseMix clusters sparse high dimensional binary data efficiently.
Generalized cross validation (GCV) is one of the most important approaches used to estimate parameters in the context of inverse problems and regularization techniques. A notable example is the determination of the smoothness parameter in splines. When the data are generated by a state space model, like in the spline c…
We briefly review our recent studies on stochastic processes modelling internet on-line trading. We present a way to evaluate the average waiting time between the observation of the price in financial markets and the next price change, especially in an on-line foreign exchange trading service for individual customers v…
Approximate variational inference has shown to be a powerful tool for modeling unknown complex probability distributions. Recent advances in the field allow us to learn probabilistic models of sequences that actively exploit spatial and temporal structure. We apply a Stochastic Recurrent Network (STORN) to learn robot …
It is well-known that the precision of data, hyperparameters, and internal representations employed in learning systems directly impacts its energy, throughput, and latency. The precision requirements for the training algorithm are also important for systems that learn on-the-fly. Prior work has shown that the data and…
Meta-learning consists in learning learning algorithms. We use a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) based network to learn to compute on-line updates of the parameters of another neural network. These parameters are stored in the cell state of the LSTM. Our framework allows to compare learned algorithms to hand-made algorit…
Algorithm of multicurrency trading at the market of Forex is realized on the basis of nonlinear stochastic wavelets. The distinctive feature of the algorithm is the possibility of weakly- and strongly connected horizontal self-assemblies, as well as use of nested structures. On-line trading with eight currency couples …
Paper analyzes gradient descent with noisy data copies for linear regression, showing regularization and acceleration effects.
A principle for specialized decision-making divides complex problems into manageable parts.
Invariant Kähler metrics on line bundles are derived from the Calabi ansatz.
Improved direction finding for closely-spaced sources using iterative ESPRIT.
New scheme detects anomalies in time series data quickly and accurately.
Researchers use statistical physics to model neural network learning dynamics.
We show that a suitable notion of Dirac-Jacobi structure on a generic line bundle , is provided by Dirac structures in the omni-Lie algebroid of . Dirac-Jacobi structures on line bundles generalize Wade's -Dirac structures and unify generic (i.e.~non-necessarily coorientable) precontact distribu…
What is the role of social interactions in the creation of price bubbles? Answering this question requires obtaining collective behavioural traces generated by the activity of a large number of actors. Digital currencies offer a unique possibility to measure socio-economic signals from such digital traces. Here, we foc…
We revisit the problem of inferring the overall ranking among entities in the framework of Bradley-Terry-Luce (BTL) model, based on available empirical data on pairwise preferences. By a simple transformation, we can cast the problem as that of solving a noisy linear system, for which a ready algorithm is available in …
Object tracking is an ubiquitous problem that appears in many applications such as remote sensing, audio processing, computer vision, human-machine interfaces, human-robot interaction, etc. Although thoroughly investigated in computer vision, tracking a time-varying number of persons remains a challenging open problem.…
Automated feature extraction for bearing health monitoring.
We use Dirac operator techniques to establish a sharp lower bound for the first eigenvalue of the twisted Dolbeault Laplacian on holomorphic line bundles over compact Kähler manifolds.
Kernel-based reinforcement learning (KBRL) stands out among reinforcement learning algorithms for its strong theoretical guarantees. By casting the learning problem as a local kernel approximation, KBRL provides a way of computing a decision policy which is statistically consistent and converges to a unique solution. U…
Novel framework proves fast RL convergence in continuous spaces.
We solve the dynamics of the on-line minority game, with general types of decision noise, using generating functional techniques a la De Dominicis and the temporal regularization procedure of Bedeaux et al. The result is a macroscopic dynamical theory in the form of closed equations for correlation- and response functi…
Conformal prediction uses past experience to determine precise levels of confidence in new predictions. Given an error probability , together with a method that makes a prediction of a label , it produces a set of labels, typically containing , that also contains with probability . Con…
Prediction and modelling of competitive sports outcomes has received much recent attention, especially from the Bayesian statistics and machine learning communities. In the real world setting of outcome prediction, the seminal Élő update still remains, after more than 50 years, a valuable baseline which is difficult to…
We study holomorphic locally homogeneous geometric structures modelled on line bundles over the projective line. We classify these structures on primary Hopf surfaces. We write out the developing map and holonomy morphism of each of these structures explicitly on each primary Hopf surface.
Paper optimizes traffic signal control for better traffic flow.
We present a new analysis of the problem of learning with drifting distributions in the batch setting using the notion of discrepancy. We prove learning bounds based on the Rademacher complexity of the hypothesis set and the discrepancy of distributions both for a drifting PAC scenario and a tracking scenario. Our boun…
Twitter, a popular social network, presents great opportunities for on-line machine learning research. However, previous research has focused almost entirely on learning from passively collected data. We study the problem of learning to acquire followers through normative user behavior, as opposed to the mass following…
The paper improves safety in autonomous systems using adversarial learning.
Co-adaptation is a special form of on-line learning where an algorithm must assist an unknown algorithm to perform some task. This is a general framework and has applications in recommendation systems, search, education, and much more. Today, the most common use of co-adaptive algorithms is …
QActor optimizes learning from noisy labeled data streams by querying experts for clean labels.
Proposes a convergent TD algorithm for off-policy RL.